Rogue One Rogue One Box Office Prediction Thread

[metaphysician]

Billion, sure. 1.5B? That is stretching. Its neither a mainline Star Wars movie, nor the first Star Wars movie in years. It won't benefit from the same "event" status as TFA.

 

[writer0327]

Billion, sure. 1.5B? That is stretching. Its neither a mainline Star Wars movie, nor the first Star Wars movie in years. It won't benefit from the same "event" status as TFA.

I'm banking on the release date for this film to hit near $1B in the first 3 weeks, provided the reviews are good. The hype for this film will be close to what it was for TFA due to the fact that Vader is in it.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

I expect only a billion for Rogue One, and that's good enough for me.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Box Office Pro predicts $1 billion worldwide for Rogue One: http://pro.boxoffice.com/studio-wee...-opens-6-9m-finding-dory-crosses-1b-globally/

 

[Erzengel]

I agree $1B.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

"Only a billion".

 

[metaphysician]

How much you want to bet that partisans of other studios declare Rogue One a sign of Star Wars failing, due to it "only" making a billion?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

How much you want to bet that partisans of other studios declare Rogue One a sign of Star Wars failing, due to it "only" making a billion?

Oh how they wish for such failures.

 

[Erzengel]

"Only a billion".

It depends on how good it is.

If it gets reviews like TFA, I could see it being higher.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It depends on how good it is.

If it gets reviews like TFA, I could see it being higher.

Sorry, that isn't what I meant. Framing a movie as "only" making a billion makes that sound like some sort of failure. No movie that makes a billion is a failure, unless it is a James Cameron movie, where he spends a crazy amount of money.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Over or under Civil War?

 

[metaphysician]

Over or under Civil War?

Hmm, tough call. I mean, I'm comfortable saying Rogue One will make a billion, but not that it would do significantly above a billion. I would say that if it does go over Civil War, it will go *way* over, because that would be the "performs more like a direct sequel to TFA" scenario. So it will be either under, or *way* over. No middle ground where its about the same, or only beats CW by a little.

 

[Bats123]

im gonna say 1.6 billion, bigger than CW but not as big as TFA.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

I still think it'll just be a billion. Maybe more with Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen's star power in China. But, for now, I'm just gonna say a straight-up billion dollars and that's it.

 

[Mysteryman]

Hey, if Lucasfilm/Disney is upset with Rogue One making no more than a billion,
I will gladly take the profits off their hands.

 

[MadVillainy]

Over or under Civil War?

Under

 

[Sith]

If this gets critical appraisal and good word of mouth 1.5 billion minimum

 

[I Am The Knight]

I think a billion might be the ceiling for this one.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Considering the numbers so far this year and the reaction to the last trailer, I think Rogue One is going to end up the highest grossing movie of the year, unless Moana stuns.

 

[Illuminata]

I can't believe tickets aren't available yet.

 

[JOE]

If this movie brings in half of what The Force Awakens did almost a year ago the studios will be EXTREMELY happy.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

I can't believe tickets aren't available yet.

According to an AMC theater down in Florida, they're hearing tickets might go on sale Monday.

 

[AverageMan]

I think it may end up being front loaded in it's run. Massive opening, then tailing off. Will do more than Jungle Book & end up with a billion, there or there about, but I don't think it will outgross CW, Zootopia or Dory

 

[LucDisfilm19]

I think it may end up being front loaded in it's run. Massive opening, then tailing off. Will do more than Jungle Book & end up with a billion, there or there about, but I don't think it will outgross CW, Zootopia or Dory

Agreed. I, too, still think and stand by what I believe that Rogue One will only make a billion worldwide.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

BTW, Box Office Pro predicts a $135M USDOW and a final domestic gross of $405M for Rogue One: http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-rogue-one-star-wars-story-collateral-beauty-space-us/. I'll go with this. $405M domestically and $595M Overseas for $1B WW. I see it doing that.