Rogue One Rogue One Box Office Prediction Thread

[Iceman]

$1B sounds about right. It's going to do very well but nowhere near an Episode Star Wars film.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

$1B sounds about right. It's going to do very well but nowhere near an Episode Star Wars film.

If it does a billion, it would be ahead of Attack of the Clones, with inflation. Without inflation, it would be the second highest grossing Star Wars movie.

 

[Filmfan93]

$1B sounds about right. It's going to do very well but nowhere near an Episode Star Wars film.

Nowhere near? You do realize that none of the Episode films, besides TFA have crossed $1 billion, right? Or you consider inflation?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Nowhere near? You do realize that none of the Episode films, besides TFA have crossed $1 billion, right? Or you consider inflation?

Did you not realize I said the exact same thing above?

By the way, TPM did pass a billion. Not on its first run, but it crossed a billion a while ago.

 

[Roose Bolton]

I don't imagine, even if this movie is dissapointing, that it'll be on AOTC's level of awful, so I think worse case scenario it'd do something like 850-900 mil.

 

[Iceman]

If it does a billion, it would be ahead of Attack of the Clones, with inflation. Without inflation, it would be the second highest grossing Star Wars movie.

The prequels didn't achieve their potential as Star Wars Episode films. TPM got a bigger chunk of its potential as a lot of people had already gone to see it by the time the realisation that it was not quite what was expected filtered through. I had fully expected to be going to see all of those 10 or more times each while I was rewatching TPM trailer numerous times every day but that never happened, and I'm only a casual Star Wars fan. Episode VII shows what can happen with an Episode film in the modern era without a heap of negativity surrounding it. My comment is a comparison of expectations between SW spinoffs and Episode fims and my expectations for spinoffs in today's box office would be about $1B worldwide while it would be significantly more for Episode films. We will see of course how that turns out.

 

[Iceman]

Nowhere near? You do realize that none of the Episode films, besides TFA have crossed $1 billion, right? Or you consider inflation?

No I am considering what spinoffs and Episode films can do in the modern era and without the negativity that came with the prequels. The overseas market for eg was nowhere near as big 15 or so years ago. I think my comments are being misunderstood as I'm just saying spinoffs are likely to do a good amount but considerably less than a main event film and this applies to every property/franchise, not just Star Wars.

 

[Mysteryman]

No I am considering what spinoffs and Episode films can do in the modern era and without the negativity that came with the prequels. The overseas market for eg was nowhere near as big 15 or so years ago. I think my comments are being misunderstood as I'm just saying spinoffs are likely to do a good amount but considerably less than a main event film and this applies to every property/franchise, not just Star Wars.

Well Said.

 

[NHawk19]

TFA did $2B this should hit $1B no problem.

That means the house of mouse could have the entire top 5 for movies this year. And with Dr. Strange they could potentially have 6 of the top 10 movies this year. If Dr. S isn't top 10 though I'm sure it won't be lower than 12.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

TFA did $2B this should hit $1B no problem.

That means the house of mouse could have the entire top 5 for movies this year. And with Dr. Strange they could potentially have 6 of the top 10 movies this year. If Dr. S isn't top 10 though I'm sure it won't be lower than 12.

What if Moana AND Dr. Strange break out?

Disney could get the top 7 worldwide.

Top 5 is much more likely which is still an incredible, historical achievement.

 

[NHawk19]

Here's the current top 10:

1 Captain America: Civil War BV $1,153.3
2 Zootopia BV $1,023.6
3 Finding Dory BV $1,021.0
4 The Jungle Book (2016) BV $966.4
5 BvS: Dawn of Justice WB $873.3
6 The Secret Life of Pets Uni. $868.1
7 Deadpool Fox $782.6
8 Suicide Squad WB $745.2
9 The Mermaid (Mei ren yu) Sony $553.8
10 X-Men: Apocalypse Fox $543.9

So if Rogue one goes to $1B that means low # is $553. Ant Man did $519 so lets say Dr. S does $560, Last Potter film did $1.3B but this is original lets say $800 and Zootopia was the last Disney animated movie and it's on that list but others have been hit or miss so who knows what Moana does but say ok $800

That puts Disney at top 5 with 1 more in the top 10 and #12.

It also keeps Deadpool in the top 10, a movie that Fox didn't really want to make in the first place. . . .

 

[Kyle]

The surprising inactivity here leads me to believe this won't come close. Which sucks. But was somewhat expected. I came in and I left wondering where is everyone? This time last year it was a frenzy it felt like. Especially since word just went online that pre order tickets might be available sometime within the next 24 hours. Last time word of that happened, we crashed EVERY ticketing site; might be the reason behind a silent release if that rumor is true.

ADDING: I'd like to stress it's a rumor, there is no official word on whether or not from Disney.

 

[Iceman]

How high is GA awareness for this relative to other blockbusters? Doesn't seem anything like EP VII but hopefully it starts motoring soon.

 

[mclay18]

Studio trades will issue out tracking numbers within several more weeks. After Thanksgiving at the latest, I should think.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

RogueOneAStarWarsStory tickets to go on sale in 3 weeks from now: https://twitter.com/starwarsjunk/sta...76589355159552. #SpreadTheWord

 

[Kyle]

With the recent tragedy, this is going to be huge. Minorities banding together to destroy an evil empire who rose to power by tricking the majority of people? Something's very timely about this one.

 

[Mysteryman]

Looking forward to those early tracking numbers.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

A quick box office update, Secret Life Of Pets has topped Batman V Superman's global cume by $112K.

 

[Iceman]

Studio trades will issue out tracking numbers within several more weeks. After Thanksgiving at the latest, I should think.

Cool, very soon then.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

How high is GA awareness for this relative to other blockbusters? Doesn't seem anything like EP VII but hopefully it starts motoring soon.

Actually it's tracking numbers were very similar or were just ahead of Moana, 2 days ago, which is slated to release this Friday.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/he...wars-story-tracking-huge-130m-us-debut-949896

 

[I Am The Knight]

I hate it when they call TFA a "reboot".

 

[Octoberist]

Yeah, the trades and even blogs are a part of the problem with the mix use of certain terminology.

 

[spiderman2]

lol saw the prediction the other day 130 million for a spin off that is nuts! But this is star wars we are talking about though. Who knows maybe that number could even go up. In fact I think the last few years predictions have been more off. Of course it could also go down. We will see but heck even star wars 7 was off has a lot of predictions had it doing right around 200 million or even slightly lower only for it to do 250. Any word on when reviews may start to come out?

 

[Sith]

150m opening weekend minimum.

However, if the early critic screenings etc are universally positive then 180-190m