Rogue One Rogue One Box Office Prediction Thread

[Sithborg]

I think $100 mil was very easy. It's the north of $150 mil is where the doubt comes in.

 

[MurkeNyou]

I think $100 mil was very easy. It's the north of $150 mil is where the doubt comes in.

It'll hit $150 by tomorrow night. I'm still shocked people are just buying tickets now, and getting mad everything is sold out. Well, yeah...

 

[Ozbridge]

Updated number is 29M according to The Wrap. Not a big decline but that still means it missed 30M.

Btw OS gross in as of Thursday is 33M.

 

[Tyrone Parker]

175 mil ow

 

[Mysteryman]

175 mil ow

Are you predicting that or was that estimated somewhere online?

 

[Iceman]

It's pretty amazing to see how much that has changed. 10-15 years ago, WB had undisputed quality control thanks to the way they were handling the Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter movies. They didn't have much quality control over DC though, and that's hurting them now due to it having gained much more value since the superhero genre boom.

I think those are a bit easier as they are continuations of the same film and up to HP8 based on just one book series (LOTR even easier being filmed all at once). The quality control would be more important when going into new territory with spinoffs like Rogue One, Fantastic beasts and the universe films in the MCU and DCEU.

 

[Jedi-Spirit]

185!

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

175 mil ow

Are you predicting that or was that estimated somewhere online?

RO is looking at 145 m OW.

With good legs it could reach 500 m DOM.

 

[writer0327]

This weekend
Christmas weekend
NYE weekend

This will hit $650-700m dom. Book it.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

This weekend
Christmas weekend
NYE weekend

This will hit $650-700m dom. Book it.

Let's see if it gets to 400m first.

 

[Erzengel]

I am curious about Christmas weekend and New Years weekend especially since the eves and days are on Saturday and Sunday.

 

[RocketsNutz]

I think the WOM on that last act, particularly the final couple of scenes is really gonna help propel it.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Friday estimates going up.

Could hit 150-155 m OW.

 

[Sithborg]

Hang on to your butts.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Friday estimates going up.

Could hit 150-155 m OW.

Where did you see this?

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Where did you see this?

A reliable source on the Box Office Theory forums gave a 69-73 m estimate for Friday.

Which most people agree means 150+ m OW.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

A reliable source on the Box Office Theory forums gave a 69-73 m estimate for Friday.

Which most people agree means 150+ m OW.

Thank you for the info Decoy.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Thank you for the info Decoy.

No problem.

 

[Tyrone Parker]

Are you predicting that or was that estimated somewhere online?

Predicting

 

[JB33]

Gitesh Pandya also says that tracking continues to indicate a $70M opening day, or a little more.

I'm going to go with $160M- $165M for the OW.

 

[JOE]

Anything over 150M OW is brilliant for this film. George sold too cheap at 4B!

 

[Iceman]

Anything over 150M OW is brilliant for this film. George sold too cheap at 4B!

Yep!

Amazing deal for Disney as this could keep making profits for decades. Although Lucas himself couldn't have got $4B worth of value out of it so selling isn't the worst thing for him. $4B should be enough on top of the wealth he already had to have a bit of fun for however many years he has left. t:

 

[Silver Surfer]

Anything over 150M OW is brilliant for this film. George sold too cheap at 4B!

Lucas sold it for 2 Billion "Cash" and 2 billion in Disney stocks, he is actually the largest individual person shareholder in all of Disney.

He's gonna make wayyyyyyyy more than 4 billion from this deal for decades to come.

 

[rayc1971]

`​

Let's see if it gets to 400m first.

agreed if it does 150 mill ow i see 350 to 400 domestic not 500 its not going to have the legs of force awakens

 

[DarthSkywalker]

`​

agreed if it does 150 mill ow i see 350 to 400 domestic not 500 its not going to have the legs of force awakens

If it does 150m opening weekend, I think it has a decent shot at 500m. This is December, where the legs should be naturally better. AT 150m, this would be the second biggest opening in December by over 60m. It would need a 3.33x multiplier. Very doable in December. Also the weakest multiple for a Star Wars film is AotC, which was had one over 3.5x.