Rogue One Rogue One Box Office Prediction Thread

[LucDisfilm19]

I guess we can now say Rogue One will very likely make a billion worldwide

 

[Blitzkrieg]

https://***********/GiteshPandya/status/812695271566151680

Gitesh Pandya
@GiteshPandya

$22.8M FRI for #RogueOne kicking off 2nd wknd. May get into $90-100M range for 4day #Christmas wknd lifting cume to $320M area by MON.

 

[Iceman]

That would be great for the 4 day number!

 

[JB33]

BoxOffice Pro is projecting a $67.5M 3-day weekend for Rogue One.
http://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-projections-rogue-one-passengers-sing-assassins-creed-why-him/

I have to say, that's a slightly disappointing 2nd weekend drop, even with the calendar factor (Christmas landing on Sunday). Just yesterday I saw projections for an $80M 2nd weekend, which I figured would be more accurate. That would have given it the 4th biggest 2nd weekend ever, only behind the juggernauts The Force Awakens, Jurassic World and The Avengers.

I'm confused, though. BoxOffice Pro also projects $102M for the 4 day weekend. That means Monday would have to see a ridiculously big $35M gross! What am I missing here?

 

[harlequinade]

Wow Assassin's Creed numbers....

 

[rayc1971]

If we can hit at least 415 m by January 2nd then 550 DOM will be looking good.

thats what its looking like i was thinkin 450 domestic but now it looks like between 550 and 600mill dometic wow

 

[DarthSkywalker]

BoxOffice Pro is projecting a $67.5M 3-day weekend for Rogue One.
http://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-projections-rogue-one-passengers-sing-assassins-creed-why-him/

I have to say, that's a slightly disappointing 2nd weekend drop, even with the calendar factor (Christmas landing on Sunday). Just yesterday I saw projections for an $80M 2nd weekend, which I figured would be more accurate. That would have given it the 4th biggest 2nd weekend ever, only behind the juggernauts The Force Awakens, Jurassic World and The Avengers.

I'm confused, though. BoxOffice Pro also projects $102M for the 4 day weekend. That means Monday would have to see a ridiculously big $35M gross! What am I missing here?

The reason these predictions are coming in is because Monday is being observed as "Christmas" a lot of places because it lands on a Sunday. So people are predicting a week today, but very big Sundays and Mondays.

 

[Tyrone Parker]

So what are we looking at for RO's 6-day (Wed to Mon)?

125 m?

Just saw 140 mil for the 6 days.

 

[JB33]

In terms of the standard 3-day 2nd weekend, Forbes is reporting $64.4M, a fairline steep 58% drop.

 

[Iceman]

The reason these predictions are coming in is because Monday is being observed as "Christmas" a lot of places because it lands on a Sunday. So people are predicting a week today, but very big Sundays and Mondays.

Yeah that changes things.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

http://deadline.com/2016/12/rogue-one-star-wars-story-great-wall-china-dangal-aamir-khan-sing-international-box-office-christmas-weekend-1201875735/

Disney/Lucasfilm’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story made off with a $47.1M three-day sophomore weekend at the international box office, lifting the overseas cume to $237.4M through Sunday. With a domestic total of $286.4M, the Rebel Alliance has now amassed $523.8M worldwide. The standalone spinoff was No. 1 for the second frame in the UK, France, Germany, Australia, Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Hong Kong and more, despite several new entrants.

The drop from opening weekend was 65%, but that should be taken with a Death Star-sized grain of salt. With Christmas Eve falling on a Saturday and Christmas Day on a Sunday, steeper-than-normal dips were expected.

 

[Iceman]

Are there other big overseas territories yet to open?

 

[Xrated48]

Just South Korea and China

 

[Sithborg]

Disappointed that it didn't break $300 mil yesterday. But that is okay, we are in for a long haul for this game.

 

[Iceman]

Just South Korea and China

Thanks.

 

[JB33]

Disappointed that it didn't break $300 mil yesterday. But that is okay, we are in for a long haul for this game.

Yep. The 2nd weekend is a bit of an anomaly given the way the calendar is this year. In normal circumstances it would have been about $15M bigger - a 2nd weekend around $80M or so - at least and it would have reached $300M yesterday.

What I'm guessing we will see now is a pretty big 3rd weekend, 4th weekend, 5th weekend etc.

 

[C. Lee]

Today....my brother in law, who has two girls around the same age as my daughter, came and got my daughter, and then went and got his brother, and they all went to see ROGUE ONE (my daughter was the only one of the group that had seen the movie before).....there is probably a bunch of people doing this today. I predict a pretty big BO number for today.

 

[JB33]

Today....my brother in law, who has two girls around the same age as my daughter, came and got my daughter, and then went and got his brother, and they all went to see ROGUE ONE (my daughter was the only one of the group that had seen the movie before).....there is probably a bunch of people doing this today. I predict a pretty big BO number for today.

It will be. The estimate for Monday is about $31.71M, which is the 2nd biggest Monday gross of all time and THE biggest 2nd Monday gross, just edging out The Force Awakens. After those two there is a big gap in terms of 2nd Mondays.

This week in general will make up for the relatively small 2nd weekend. I say relatively because, as mentioned before, in normal circumstances this movie would have had a much bigger 2nd weekend, given the way its box office is behaving so far.

 

[Iceman]

That Monday estimate would take it to not far off $100m for the 4 day.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Still on track for 525-550 m.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

I was a bit surprised by the lower weekend number but can see why it happened since Christmas being on a Sunday meant people didn't have the extra time to see it like The Force Awakens did last year. My theater on Sunday was full but it didn't have the lines for tickets like TFA did.

 

[JB33]

Actuals are finally in:

3-day weekend (Dec. 23-25)
$64,033,768
-December 23: $22,860,256
-December 24: $15,308,508
-December 25: $25,865,004
--14th biggest 2nd weekend of all time
--2nd biggest Christmas Eve and 2nd biggest Christmas Day of all time (both behind The Force Awakens

Monday
$32,085,637
-2nd biggest Monday gross of all time and BIGGEST 2nd Monday gross of all time


Totals:

Domestic: $318,119,079
Foreign: $255,702,766
Worldwide: $573,821,845

 

[Erzengel]

Rogue One should break the Top 3 by this weekend for the year domestically and crack the Top 10 WW.

 

[JB33]

It's funny how that 2nd weekend skews things.

As mentioned, mostly because of how the calendar is this year, that 2nd weekend was fairly modest and ranks as the 14th biggest 2nd weekend. That gave Rogue One the 10th biggest 10-day total of all time, which is still very good, mind you. However, with the enormous Monday gross, suddenly it has the 6th biggest 11-day total and, likewise, is the 6th fastest to $300M. In a nutshell, the anticipated very strong weekday numbers this week are suddenly going to catapult Rogue One ahead of a bunch of other films that were pacing well ahead of it after 10 days of release.

As it is, the film will undoubtedly leap even more ahead to be the 4th fastest film to $350M, after only the big 3 of The Force Awakens, Jurassic World and The Avengers, which accomplished the feat in 6, 9 and 10 days respectively. If it were to match Monday's total, however unlikely, it would do it in 12 days. If not, it'll reach it tomorrow (13 days). The Dark Knight is currently 4th all time in this regard, having reached $350M in 14 days.

 

[TheVileOne]

Rogue One will probably make close to $500 million if not more, so there's nothing to really worry about.