Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[Electrix]

Looks like X-Men Origins: Wolverine will be the true last stand when it comes to the 20th Century Fox Owned X-Men movie franchise.

It probably won't be.

 

[Angamb]

I can't wait to see The Avengers.

That will be a great team movie.

Remember it.

 

[Timstuff]

So this POS movie is probably not going to bring in a profit. If it makes 80 million or less this weekend, and then only pulls in another 30-40 million next week, it's gross will be at about 110-120 million, and from there on out it's going to pretty much drop off the chart, and most of the money it makes will be taken by the theaters. That's good news IMO.

Fox can try to blame piracy or whatever they want, but the fact is that they made a bad movie, and the word of mouth generated by the leak was very bad as opposed to positive. Hopefully, they let the rights expire and Marvel can retract them in a few years, even if that's not terribly likely (they could always put out some 30 million dollar POS just to hold onto the rights).

Still, I'm an optimist, and it's possible that Rothman will get fired over all the money he's lost for Fox this year. I mean, unless Avatar grosses like a billion dollars, it won't be enough to make up for all the money Rothman has bled out of the studio this fiscal year with the likes of Max Payne, Street Fighter, Dragonball Evolution, and Wolverine. Either he'll get fired, or Avatar will be a success, and his bosses put put him a short leash, essentially stripping him of his power.

 

[dark_b]

So this POS movie is probably not going to bring in a profit. If it makes 80 million or less this weekend, and then only pulls in another 30-40 million next week, it's gross will be at about 110-120 million, and from there on out it's going to pretty much drop off the chart, and most of the money it makes will be taken by the theaters. That's good news IMO.

Fox can try to blame piracy or whatever they want, but the fact is that they made a bad movie, and the word of mouth generated by the leak was very bad as opposed to positive. Hopefully, they let the rights expire and Marvel can retract them in a few years, even if that's not terribly likely (they could always put out some 30 million dollar POS just to hold onto the rights).

Still, I'm an optimist, and it's possible that Rothman will get fired over all the money he's lost for Fox this year. I mean, unless Avatar grosses like a billion dollars, it won't be enough to make up for all the money Rothman has bled out of the studio this fiscal year with the likes of Max Payne, Street Fighter, Dragonball Evolution, and Wolverine. Either he'll get fired, or Avatar will be a success, and his bosses put put him a short leash, essentially stripping him of his power.

FOX is now lying about the budgets. tehy did it with dragonball.
come on guys you watched the movie. you really think that they would need over 100 millions for this? even if Hugh got a big paycheck . they used small FX companys. they didtn have a lot of big action scenes.

so based on that IMO it will make a profit.

 

[Timstuff]

FOX is now lying about the budgets. tehy did it with dragonball.
come on guys you watched the movie. you really think that they would need over 100 millions for this? even if Hugh got a big paycheck . they used small FX companys. they didtn have a lot of big action scenes.

If Fox is lying about how much these movies are costing, that means that they are also lying to their investors and the world's governments about taxes, which is illegal. Either Fox is losing a ton of money on all these crappy movies they're putting out, or they are running an investment scam that the government is going to have to crack down on at some point. Either way, it's not looking good for them.

 

[neemer5]

JUST IN:

The Official Weekend Estimate is 87 million.

For reference, X2 made about 86 million, and X3 made 122 million (102 from Friday to Sunday on memorial day weekend).

 

[mclay18]

I say $150-$170 million. Aside from the finished product being s*** and having mixed word-of-mouth, Star Trek will handily beat it next week. All Wolverine will boast about is that tidy opening weekend gross, but then it'll drop off like flies.

I wouldn't be surprised if the second weekend drop was equivalent to X3 or even lower.

 

[topdog1]

I say $150-$170 million. Aside from the finished product being s*** and having mixed word-of-mouth, Star Trek will handily beat it next week. All Wolverine will boast about is that tidy opening weekend gross, but then it'll drop off like flies.

I wouldn't be surprised if the second weekend drop was equivalent to X3 or even lower.

Bottom line, Wolverine will beat Star Trek's overall box office.

 

[matrix_ghost]

FOX is now lying about the budgets. tehy did it with dragonball.
come on guys you watched the movie. you really think that they would need over 100 millions for this? even if Hugh got a big paycheck . they used small FX companys. they didtn have a lot of big action scenes.

so based on that IMO it will make a profit.

YEs. If anything i could see Fox paying 150 million ( or more) for Wolverine.
However the bad VFX shots could be contributed to two things
1 low grade studios like you said.

2 Less time meaning the shots were rushed . Remember that Fox was rushing to greenlight several projects before the writers strike be gan ( among them Wolveirne and DB:E). Now this is just speculation on my part but it could be Fox went ahead with incomplete scripts and when the writers strike finished , they called for (extensive) rewrites mid-production. That could mean that things were added and if you don't have enough time to finish them , the shots will look pretty poor.

 

[mclay18]

I can't wait to see The Avengers.

That will be a great team movie.

Remember it.

I'm glad a responsible studio like Marvel is producing (and Paramount distributing) something as BIG as The Avengers, and will likely have a solid director as well. I have faith that Marvel can put out a decent Avengers movie, especially now that Favreau is interested in doing it straight after Iron Man 2.

Whereas Fox however, doesn't have a chance unless Rothman gets the boot. The trouble with Fox is that they don't offer the same freedom to directors like the other studios do (unless they're James Cameron), and it shows in the many PG-13 rated movies that run 105-107 minutes long.

 

[mclay18]

Bottom line, Wolverine will beat Star Trek's overall box office.

Eh, I don't know. Star Trek does have the benefit of great pre-release reviews, solid tracking, and the marketing towards younger people who don't like ST (like myself).

Wolverine has a great opening weekend but piss poor reviews and mixed word-of-mouth will probably kill its second week at the b.o.. ST will probably have better legs though and eke out a nice profit for Paramount.

 

[neemer5]

I'm glad a responsible studio like Marvel is producing (and Paramount distributing) something as BIG as The Avengers, and will likely have a solid director as well. I have faith that Marvel can put out a decent Avengers movie, especially now that Favreau is interested in doing it straight after Iron Man 2.

Whereas Fox however, doesn't have a chance unless Rothman gets the boot. The trouble with Fox is that they don't offer the same freedom to directors like the other studios do (unless they're James Cameron), and it shows in the many PG-13 rated movies that run 105-107 minutes long.

And that's why I don't blame Gavin Hood. It's smart business to get affordable, proven indie directors to direct what's supposed to be more than an average comic book film. But if you neuter them stylistically, its pointless. That's likely why Matthew Vaughn left X3, and we got a tool from the shed to direct. Ironically, the cut parts from the storyline were probably those relationship building scenes that require no CG and cost essentially nothing. Pity. Somewhere in this mess, there was a potentially great movie. That's what makes it so tragic.

 

[Electrix]

Eh, I don't know. Star Trek does have the benefit of great pre-release reviews, solid tracking, and the marketing towards younger people who don't like ST (like myself).

Wolverine has a great opening weekend but piss poor reviews and mixed word-of-mouth will probably kill its second week at the b.o.. ST will probably have better legs though and eke out a nice profit for Paramount.

Wolverine has proved that mixed/bad reviews don't really matter in terms of box office. It would have made $80+ million with good or bad reviews. It's critic and leak proof (although some are saying it could have made $20 million more if the leak didn't happen)

I hope Star Trek does well and it will probably be number 1 next week. However, there are a few things that could influence it's box office. It's not a sequel, no A-list actors and there is also the Star Trek stigma of being geeky and nerdy.

I'll be seeing it, and it'll be interested to see how it does box office-wise.

 

[craigdbfan]

Still, I'm an optimist, and it's possible that Rothman will get fired over all the money he's lost for Fox this year. I mean, unless Avatar grosses like a billion dollars, it won't be enough to make up for all the money Rothman has bled out of the studio this fiscal year with the likes of Max Payne, Street Fighter, Dragonball Evolution, and Wolverine. Either he'll get fired, or Avatar will be a success, and his bosses put put him a short leash, essentially stripping him of his power.

Exactly.

Fox can't keep this up. I think they're even aware of that. You can only degrade a franchise so much until people catch on and I don't want to see the X-Men cinematic future come to a halting end because of lousy business decisions. Its so sickening seeing directors impeded by heavy studio regulation to release a product thats "commercially viable" (why not just make a good film, it works for Paramount and WB).

 

[Electrix]

If Fox is lying about how much these movies are costing, that means that they are also lying to their investors and the world's governments about taxes, which is illegal. Either Fox is losing a ton of money on all these crappy movies they're putting out, or they are running an investment scam that the government is going to have to crack down on at some point. Either way, it's not looking good for them.

It is rare that ANY movie studio releases it's budget to the public. They won't be doing anything illegal in term of taxes etc but it is rare for a studio to publicly say what the overall budget came to. Sony weren't too keen on admitting they spent $200+ on Spider-Man 3.

Fox should have a better year this year, with Taken being a hit, Wolverine, Ice Age 3, Night at he Museum, Alvin and the Chipmunks, Avatar, plus the smaller films.

 

[Spider-ManHero12]

Good to know this movie is doing great at the box office as well. Makes room for sequel.

 

[JerseyJoker]

People thinking that this movie was inline to make TDK or Spidey numbers are dumb.

This movie really was never toted as to be in line like those films. But if it does a solid opening weekend, most likely probably by the end of its run, will bring in more money then the first X-Men film.

Hopefully it does well, probably stay number 1 until Angels & Demons comes out. Hopefully it goes the way of the X-Men films, we get a good first film, then we get an even better sequel, maybe with better writers.

 

[Celestial]

According to EOnline the estimate for overseas box office $73m for the weekend. X2 opened with $69m and X3 with $76m. That's pretty good considering it has yet to open in two of the top ten markets (Mexico and Japan).

 

[def28]

Regardless of reviews,the leak and bad word of mouth this flick opened up strong, second highest opening in the X franchise. Be interesting next week. Star Trek is not gonna stay #1 for long. Non of these new May movies are. There is a new flick coming out each week, Star Trek will get knocked out by Angels and Demons and then that will get knocked down by T4 and Night at the museum 2 fighting it out. Non of these movies have time to breathe. Not just Wolverine.

Star Trek looks great, but I dont think its gonna be as big as alot of people think.

Transformers 2 will murder everything this summer.

 

[Retroman]

JUST IN:

The Official Weekend Estimate is 87 million.

For reference, X2 made about 86 million, and X3 made 122 million (102 from Friday to Sunday on memorial day weekend).

According to EOnline the estimate for overseas box office $73m for the weekend. X2 opened with $69m and X3 with $76m. That's pretty good considering it has yet to open in two of the top ten markets (Mexico and Japan).

That's pretty good all things considerd.

 

[Electrix]

More from the E! Online article:

In foreign countries, minus swine-flu-stricken Mexico, natch, Wolverine took in $73 million, Fox reported. After three days, the reputedly $130 million movie's worldwide haul stands at $160 million.

Audiences seemed fully aware of Wolverine's bad buzz. But, in the end, per Fox's exit polling, nearly half of all moviegoers said the film was better than they expected.

Sequel and possibly Magneto and First Class!

 

[Doctor Jones]

Damn. That could mean sequel. And probably a crappier one.

God, why can't Marvel buy the rights back?!

 

[Deaths Head II]

I knew it would happen, but I can't help but feel a tad disappointed.

I wonder how bad X-Men: First Class/Wolverine II is going to be...

 

[Electrix]

I knew it would happen, but I can't help but feel a tad disappointed.

I wonder how bad X-Men: First Class/Wolverine II is going to be...

Well considering how terrible the movie apparently is, it improves the chances of a sequel being better (if you bring probability into it).

I hope X-Men: First Class turns out good. I can't wait to see an actual X-Men movie without Wolverine hogging the screentime.

 

[Juha]

JUST IN:

The Official Weekend Estimate is 87 million.

Damn! I didn't see that one coming! I clearly underestimated the power of May 1st.

I anticipated something like 55-60 million. The movie was mediocre at best but at least we'll be getting more X-men movies in the future. But they have to put X3 and X-Men Origins: Wolverine behind them. We need more quality X-men movies a la X1 and X2.

X-Men is all about deep themes and complex characters. Even though X3 and X-Men Origins Wolverine made big bucks, I felt that they weren't ambitious enough.

Obviously First Class and Wolverine sequel are getting the green light as we speak. Let's just hope they deliver.