Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[Anita18]

Not true

IM did, but IM had great WOM and didn't have a big midnight number. Otherwise because of Friday midnights, movies with devoted fanbases often fall on Saturday due to decreased initial demand, and look like they fall drastically when they actually haven't.

Take TDK. $67.1 million on Friday, $47.6 million on Saturday. Big drop, right? But take away the $18.6 million in midnights on Friday (devoted fanbase, not the best gauge for general audience demand), then it's a $48.6 million Friday. Suddenly the drop doesn't seem so bad.

But Wolverine's midnights weren't huge, so maybe there won't be such an impact from the devoted midnight-showing fanbase anyway. I guess we'll see by tomorrow morning.

 

[Chewy]

Yeah, I know. That's why I said not true

We don't even need to look at TDK for an example. More relevantly, X3 had one of the largest friday-to-saturday drops ever. X1 had a friday-to-saturday drop. X2, with incredible WOM and strong anticipation built up from the first film, went up on saturday by less than a million. And as time goes on, films have become more and more frontloaded.

Don't expect this to go up on Saturday

 

[Superhero 101]

I just want it to make atleast 200 million domestically and about 100 Foreign

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Expect it to go down atleast 15% today.

The thing people fail to realize is that the X-films all have s**tty legs so why would a weak ass film like Wolverine change things and suddenly get a good multilplier overall or over the weekend?

I'm expecting 79 to 82mil for the weekend.

It has no chance of making 200mil...sorry.

 

[Anita18]

The thing people fail to realize is that the X-films all have s**tty legs so why would a weak ass film like Wolverine change things and suddenly get a good multilplier overall or over the weekend?

I'm expecting 79 to 82mil for the weekend.

It has no chance of making 200mil...sorry.

Right, and X2 actually had great WOM.

 

[Celestial]

I think it will do well in overseas markets. The three X-Men films made 47%, 48% and 49% of their worldwide gross overseas which is pretty good for comic book movies. This one should do even better.

 

[Crook]

Wait did someone say Star Trek will be the biggest hit of the summer? Transformers 2 will blow that movie out of the ballpark. No movie will make more than T2 this year.

I don't know, all the hype behind Avatar, I think that'll be the big splash. Especially if all the hype comes to pass and it actually changes the blockbuster genre.

I just want it to make atleast 200 million domestically and about 100 Foreign

100 foreign I think is a lock, but 200 will be a stretch domestically. I do not see this having good WOM at all. It's by far the most lackluster X-Men movie.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think that Transformers 2 will win the summer and year but Salvation might have a shot.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Transformers 2 is the surest thing of the summer, Star Trek will have a box-office run similar to Batman Begins/Superman Returns (i.e. solid/decent opening with around $200 million total) and yeah Wolverine won't break $200 million domestic.

 

[Anita18]

I think it will do well in overseas markets. The three X-Men films made 47%, 48% and 49% of their worldwide gross overseas which is pretty good for comic book movies. This one should do even better.

The numbers haven't come in, but from reading box office forums, attendance in Europe (UK and France, I think) have been lower than all of the other X-men films.

I don't know, all the hype behind Avatar, I think that'll be the big splash. Especially if all the hype comes to pass and it actually changes the blockbuster genre.

Yet we don't have a trailer or even a poster. The only people so far who are aware of the Avatar hype are people who follow movies. The general public have no clue.

I don't think it'll be the next Titanic, but I'm still looking forward to see what James Cameron has in store for us, especially technology-wise.

 

[chaseter]

I think that Transformers 2 will win the summer and year but Salvation might have a shot.

Transformers 2 is the surest thing of the summer, Star Trek will have a box-office run similar to Batman Begins/Superman Returns (i.e. solid/decent opening with around $200 million total) and yeah Wolverine won't break $200 million domestic.

I don't know...Potter does well here and makes a killing over seas so I think it will be the top earner this year.

 

[The Guardian]

WOW, the movie's doing better than I thought it would, I'm very glad, mostly for Hugh, I thought the movie was awesome, so I'm glad things are working out for him, considering the leaks!!! Hopefully it can survive the onslaught coming up from the heavy hitters on the way!!!up:

 

[TheComicbookKid]

I'm still mataining that ST will open with less than Wolverine but actually have legs and do well overall.

I'm predicting a little over 200mil for it.

The point is I think that StarTrek will actually be well received in a Batman Begins kind of way, while Wolverine will make tons of money but most won't care about it and it will have terrible legs.

I don't know. Star Wars and Batman have always been perceived as all-inclusive films. Begins just came out after a bad film so people were cautious.

Trek's public persona is more insular. I'm not sure people will be willing to check it out at the theater before the next big movie comes. Salvation or NaTM.

Anyway back to topic, Wolverine, at least for Fox, guarntees another shot at keeping the X-Men in-house with it total box-office. That's all that really matters for them.

 

[danoyse]

The numbers haven't come in, but from reading box office forums, attendance in Europe (UK and France, I think) have been lower than all of the other X-men films.

I also think having to postpone the Mexico opening could have an affect on the international box office. I was reading that the other movies have done well there.

I'm very curious to see how it does worldwide this weekend.

 

[terry78]

Honestly, as much as we despise Fox and the movie itself, you should at least want it to do well for Jackman's sake. He's not pulling a Bale here, he's been cool throughout the whole ordeal.

 

[danoyse]

Honestly, as much as we despise Fox and the movie itself, you should at least want it to do well for Jackman's sake. He's not pulling a Bale here, he's been cool throughout the whole ordeal.

Exactly.

 

[chaseter]

Jackman is cool as a cucumber but he was a producer on this movie and he helped make a not so great film that could have been amazing.

 

[danoyse]

Jackman is cool as a cucumber but he was a producer on this movie and he helped make a not so great film that could have been amazing.

I thought the movie was great, despite some obvious flaws. I have better things to do than pull a Rush Limbaugh act and wish for the movie to fail so Marvel can wave a magic wand and make it all better - something that will take years at best, even if it did happen.

 

[Deaths Head II]

If Hugh Jackman wants his films to do well, he should star in better films.

Hugh starred in Van Hellsing, Deception, Swordfish, etc. I didn't hope for those films to do well just because Hugh was in them.

 

[danoyse]

Hugh starred in Van Hellsing, Deception, Swordfish, etc. I didn't hope for those films to do well just because Hugh was in them.

I didn't like those 3 films either (especially Deception, yikes, that was awful), but I'm a fan so I hope the movies are good and they do well. Simple as that.

 

[bullets]

Hugh was good in the Prestige and the Fountain . Aside from those two and playing Wolverine I haven't enjoyed the other films.

 

[icelemt38]

Deception was in the black before it even came out so no financial loss or anything, that was just a vehicle for Hugh to try out producing before getting into Wolverine. But his good movies were seen by very few, like The Fountain and even The Prestige, and I would even add Australia to that mix. He's really made it big now though I think and I hope that his next few projects will be big for him (not necessarily BO but awards attention and respect) because supposedly after The Oscars, he's been getting lots of offers he didn't get before.

 

[danoyse]

I loved Australia. I was sad that one didn't do better at the box office.

I keep hearing he's working on a new movie version of Carousel. If that happens I may just move into the movie theater. I love that musical.

 

[narrows101]

I loved Australia. I was sad that one didn't do better at the box office.

I keep hearing he's working on a new movie version of Carousel. If that happens I may just move into the movie theater. I love that musical.

I loved Australia also - it did much better internationally than in the US. I truthfully wonder if the holiday weekend/the Nicole factor had anything to do with it here.

I can't freaking WAIT for Carousel! Hugh said he hopes to film that within a year and they have a script - wonder who his Julie Jordan will be - hope the rumors about Anne Hathaway turn out to be true (but not holding my breath).

Is it bad of me to say I liked Van Helsing??? Hubby loved it also.

 

[icelemt38]

Carousel is what I've been waiting for too, having seen and heard footage of him belting it out in Carnegie Hall, I can't think of a better role for him. And Anne Hathaway would be a perfect Julie, seriously fingers crossed for that duo in that movie. And Hugh's been talking about wanting to do something lighter like a comedy so I have a feeling that's coming next.

Van Helsing I thought was okay, since seeing it in the theaters I've never once watched it again other than the loincloth scene and the bloopers in the extras, but in terms of watchability, its sitting right next to X3 on my Hugh collection merely there to be a dust collector.