Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[Dev]

Well guys get ready for a Wolverine 2 announcement anytime soon.

 

[narrows101]

Hugh's stock among women has gone way up since being named People's Sexiest Man Alive, the bucket scene in Australia (among other scenes LOL) and the Oscars. Plus he was on Oprah on Friday and she has a big influence and she was practically drooling over him. And advertising the nudity helped I'm sure LOL.

Case in point:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-ct-boxoffice4-2009may04,0,2806618.story?track=rss

'Wolverine' No. 1: Hugh made me love you

The lure of Hugh Jackman, particularly for women, helped propel the 'X-Men' spinoff to an $87-million opening weekend. That's not super high for a superhero film, but female interest may give it legs.
By Ben Fritz
May 4, 2009

He's no Iron Man and no team of mutants, but Wolverine kicked off the summer with a solid $87 million in domestic ticket sales.

Add in $73 million from the 101 foreign markets where it opened simultaneously and Fox's first "X-Men" spinoff grossed $160 million around the globe, according to preliminary estimates from the studio.

The opening is almost exactly on par with the second "X-Men" movie, "X2," which launched on the same weekend in 2003. Given six years of ticket price inflation, which has totaled over 20% domestically, that indicates a significant decline of audience interest.

It's also noticeably less than Marvel's self-financed "Iron Man," which grossed $98.6 million domestic and about $97 million overseas on the first weekend of May last year. 2006's "X-Men: The Last Stand," the last film in the series, opened to $102.8 million in the U.S. and Canada and about $76 million in foreign markets.

The lower domestic grosses indicate weaker buzz for this year's first big film of the summer popcorn movie season. Though "Wolverine" and "Iron Man" had nearly identical Friday night ticket sales, "Wolverine" grossed 16% less on Saturday -- $29.75 million compared to "Iron Man's" $35.2 million. ("Wolverine" was likely hurt a bit by Saturday night's Boston-Chicago NBA playoff game. Fox found grosses were significantly lower in those two cities.)

But although it's not quite up there with the biggest superhero flicks or summer event films, Fox and financing partner Dune Entertainment can't be disappointed with such a strong debut for their film, which had a production budget of more than $140 million, according to sources. Concerns going into the weekend about the possible detrimental effects on the film of video piracy and swine flu appear to have been unfounded given the huge opening day.

It's particularly noteworthy that "Wolverine" played almost evenly to all audience segments, with women representing 47% of ticket buyers and almost no difference between those over and under 25 years old. The stronger-than-expected showing among females, attributed by the studio to the appeal of star Hugh Jackman, could help the film to hold on against the heavily male-skewing "Star Trek" next weekend, though it also indicates somewhat soft interest among comic-book movies' traditional young male demographic.

"Wolverine's" healthy performance with women appears to have affected "Ghosts of Girlfriends" past, which opened to a softer-than-expected $15.3 million, based on preliminary estimates from Warner Bros. That's the lowest opening ever for a Matthew McConaughey romantic comedy, though almost exactly in line with "Made of Honor," which opened to $14.8 million last year against "Iron Man."

 

[Kurosawa]

remember people, this is a general audience that watches those movies like Scary Movie, Meet the Spartans, White Chicks, Are We There Yet?, and makes the Fast and Furious franchise a continued hit. But they balk at a time tested story and some CGI blue nudity...

The success of those movies and movies like this one are indicative of everything that is wrong with humanity.

Ok, maybe not, but they all suck.

 

[JerseyJoker]

Men and women...everyone loves Hugh Jackman.

Glad Wolverine did well, happy to see it have a bigger opening then the first X-Men films. Hopefully enough buzz will keep it at not that big of a drop off , cause even though by next week people will be like OMG IT DROPPED 50%!!!

Its going to happen, all summer blockbusters take a dive, specially when its going up against ANOTHER summer blockbuster, just how it works. But enough money and buzz, maybe we get another sequel, where they improve on some of the mistakes and negatives, and bust out a badass sequel for Mr. Snikt.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

50% would be an excellent drop which is why it isn't going to drop that. It's not going to be under 60%.

 

[Chewy]

I would not be surprised at all if it dropped 70% or more

I think the drop'll be around 65%, though

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

^As do I. It's not just about word of mouth, this entire series is frontloaded.

Listen, if the weekdays point to a better than 60% drop next weekend I'll be the first one to point it out that I was wrong.

 

[danoyse]

Watchmen was an adult flick bordering on NC-17. That limited the demographic and therefore hurt it's legs. In addition, the longer runtime, meant fewer screenings and less revenue.

There will be a drop with Star Trek coming out, but I don't know if future films pose much threat. Angels and Demons is not going to be a huge draw. DaVinci code did pretty well, especially considering the low budget, but I don't see this movie doing better than the original, considering the book it's based on was never as successful as DaVinci Code.

I'm guessing that Wolverine will get around 200-225 by the time all is said and done.

Watchmen dropped like a rock because a lot of the general audience who did see it hated it. The producers were actually begging fans to come back the second weekend just to avoid that big drop and it still didn't help.

I think Star Trek is going to have great legs because it does attract older audiences - and they take their time getting to the movies, they don't all rush out the first weekend. It may just be good enough to hold off Angels & Demons the following weekend. But A&D should do well - it's got a huge fanbase and most of them consider that book far superior to DaVinci Code (and it was). And again, it's an older audience, if it's good it should be around for awhile.

 

[JaD]

87 million... Impressive.

I don't think Fox can blame the leak for weak BO numbers with an opening like that. Now they need to pay attention to the word of mouth and reviews.

 

[kedrell]

I think when the actuals come out it'll be down at 84-85M which is the 2nd lowest of the series. 2nd weekend could be as low as 25M. Then a less than 2.0 OW multiplier for about a 160-165M total and that is well below X1's adjusted numbers. Probably 300-325M world wide. Now THAT is a helluva dip from the last film's gross. Don't expect a sequel to be greenlit immediately. Hopefully this can still be a franchise killer for the X-films over at FOX, but I'm less convinced of that.

 

[chaseter]

They will try once more. If this movie doesn't do great, they will make First Class and it will probably suck and hopefully enough people will have wised up by then. It is time for Marvel to have a go with one of their biggest properties.

 

[블라스]

The fact that it's making this much money makes me more and more disappointed with people

 

[alexlachiusa]

So it's made 160 million world wide.

That's a profit of 10 million in less than a week.

There will be more X-Men films from Fox.

 

[Celestial]

It still has a good chance of reaching $200m. Even X3 had a multiplier of 2.3 and that was after an exceptional Friday opening. Sure, Watchmen's multiplier was less than two, but this has a much broader audience and its performance so far is very different.

 

[craigdbfan]

Watchmen dropped like a rock because a lot of the general audience who did see it hated it. The producers were actually begging fans to come back the second weekend just to avoid that big drop and it still didn't help.

It wasn't the "producers" but rather an open letter from David Hayter (he wrote the original screenplay) to those who enjoyed the film to watch it again.

 

[dark_b]

The fact that it's making this much money makes me more and more disappointed with people

i dont think wolverine as a superhero was that bad for a may 1 realese.
hugh jackman is now a name. it was marketed with a lot of mutants.
i think this opening is pretty normal.

i have more problems with the story and how wolverine is to PG13 .

a winter realese or march realese and a R rating is what i would want. and a low budget. lets go dark

 

[04nbod]

I know I'm just a noob but I don't think women like to see ppl get their butts kicked in movies they like those boring romantic type movies.

You know nothing of women. sweet, adorable romantic movies are nice but Hugh Jackman, Liev Schrieber, Taylor Kitsch, Ryan Reynolds, Daniel Henney getting all hot and wrestlin' will get women in theatres. You think only men have a sex drive?

 

[Celestial]

You know nothing of women. sweet, adorable romantic movies are nice but Hugh Jackman, Liev Schrieber, Taylor Kitsch, Ryan Reynolds, Daniel Henney getting all hot and wrestlin' will get women in theatres. You think only men have a sex drive?

Yup, especially when the "counter-programming" is Matthew McThingy playing a cad. I think in that respect, the success of Wolverine is a wake-up call for the studios.
I used to go to see films with a group of female friends. The easiest sell, ever, was Troy - Brad Pitt, Eric Bana and Orlando Bloom in short skirts.

 

[04nbod]

I loved Troy.Brad Pitt rolling around with Rose Byrne was so hot.

 

[danoyse]

You know nothing of women. sweet, adorable romantic movies are nice but Hugh Jackman, Liev Schrieber, Taylor Kitsch, Ryan Reynolds, Daniel Henney getting all hot and wrestlin' will get women in theatres. You think only men have a sex drive?

Hugh was on Oprah's show on Friday afternoon and all they did was talk about his nude scenes (they also showed a montage of said scenes). Suddenly the number of women who attended the film this weekend was slightly higher than with any of the other X-Men movies, according to the box office reports.

Never doubt the power of Oprah.

 

[narrows101]

Hugh was on Oprah's show on Friday afternoon and all they did was talk about his nude scenes (they also showed a montage of said scenes). Suddenly the number of women who attended the film this weekend was slightly higher than with any of the other X-Men movies, according to the box office reports.

Never doubt the power of Oprah.

Plus his hosting the Oscars also helped I'm sure.

 

[TheVileOne]

Yay, so what?

The movie made over $80 million but its going to drop 60-70% this weekend. And I predict it won't even break $200 million in the US.

 

[terry78]

^Probably, but the fact that it made close to 100 mil in its first week will still give Fox ample enough reason to continue the franchise.

 

[JP]

Yup, and rightfully so.

 

[Celestial]

The trouble with Hugh getting the credit for the success is that Fox may become even more reluctant to make an X-Men movie without Wolverine.