Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[Hound89]

Between The Economy, Swine Flu, the Leak, and the Haters

the fact this movie has made as much as it has means its Thrived

 

[Dev]

^Heck, Transformers 2 this year has a shot at the record. It seems every year since 2006 a movie breaks the OW record. POTC2 (2006), Spiderman 3 (2007), TDK (2008), Transformers 2 (2009 - Maybe).

 

[FaT_tONle]

Transformers will open huge but I doubt it's going to get that 320 million it's predecessor got. Because all these studios go for this time of year is that big weekend. 85 is not NEARLY enough to call this a "modern day" hit. It's not a flop... but it's basically another FF/SR... which are flops in my book.

 

[Dev]

^Yep those 2 movies are huge flops, SR more than anything though since its budget is far greater than FF. But I think Transformers 2 has a chance to reach very close to 400M Domestic and about 500M Int. Just prepare for close 1B from Transformers 2 this year.

 

[Anita18]

^I think Iron Man has the potential to beat TDK's OW record of 158M. We'll just have to wait and see.

Depends on how much competition it has. TDK had more theaters than SM3, but it was on 1,000 or so less screens because there was more competition from other movies vying for the same space. Thus, TDK managed to handily beat SM3's opening weekend despite having less showtimes because it was practically sold out everywhere in its first 3 days. (From the per-theater-average records reported on BOM, TDK had about 100 more people per theater over its opening weekend than SM3.)

I don't think any movie will achieve TDK's OW sellout numbers anytime soon. The hype was absolutely ridiculous. But they can increase the number of opening theaters and the number of screens to do it.

I don't think TF2 will. It's opening on a Wednesday, and so demand will have lessened by the weekend. Moving a Friday release basically says they're giving up a shot at the OW record, but I guess that strategy earns more total so...I think Dreamworks/Paramount doesn't care.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Although I don't like the flick I think that Wolverine's opening is a huge success.

But it needed a 100mil opening to lock up 200mil IMHO.

And yeah, Transformers 2 has no chance of getting the opening weekend record as it is opening midweek. I have no faith in the average moviegoer so I see it making nearly 400mil in all. Hell, I could see it making over 400mil.

 

[FaT_tONle]

What competition did SM3 have? A poker/love movie with Duvall/Barrymore/Bana is I am not mistaken? TDK had the previous summer films of that year. Competition has nothing to do with it... unless it's a Bond film or some big romantic comedy the same weekend.

 

[Anita18]

What competition did SM3 have? A poker/lover movie with Duvall/Barrymore/Bana is I am not mistaken? TDK had the previous summer films of that year. Competition has nothing to do with it... unless it's a Bond film or some big romantic comedy the same weekend.

No, I mean that SM3 had MORE screens per theater because there were really no other movies playing at that time. TDK, despite having more theaters its opening weekend, was on less screens because there were a bunch of other movies that the theaters were still obligated to show. (Studios usually mandate at least 2 weeks.)

It's not a matter of the paying audience choosing which movies to see, it's a matter of the theaters only having so many screens to dole out between a bunch of movies. If TDK had been showing on more screens, its OW would have been even bigger, because its first Monday was huge, indicating weekend spillover.

 

[Theweepeople]

85 is a mediocre opening... you got films like Twilight and Furious pushing those kinds of numbers and they didn't even come out during the summer season, but anything less than 100 million these days for summer tentpoles of Wolverine's magnitude is pretty "meh" no matter how you spin it. I won't consider IM2 as another hit brewing unless it does AT LEAST 125-140 million OW next year.

There are many factors that go into determining how impressive an opening weekend is. It depends on whether a film is a part of a franchise, whether the last sequel did well or not, how well movies perform during this time, critic reviews, marketing, competition, and the eventual second weekend dropoff. Right now I think the film had a decent opening considering the workprint leak. Until we see next friday's boxoffice results we can only speculate about how well this movie will do.

In reality, I believe Wolverine will at least make it's money back and more. I can see it making in the 170-185million domestic range. It's already making less than X2 after a better opening and the poor reviews will have an impact on the boxoffice. The movie will probably be a disappointment but, that won't stop Fox from making a sequel. Fox may take the extreme cheap route with these films for now on. Expect a cheap sequel with a budget around 100million. If that fails the budgets for other sequels and spinoffs will get cheaper.


I would be much more impressed with Star Trek making over 80million for it's first weekend than Wolverine because it's a sequel to a dead franchise that never appealed to a general audience. I think the word of mouth will be great and I expect it to make around 200million. A sequel will be greenlighted if it makes those numbers and the fanbase will increase for an anticipated sequel that could make over 300million.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Yeah that's the million dollar question... the next weekend numbers aside... how cheap will Fox get in the future spinoffs? Japan is a cheaper film. There won't be huge emphasis on the CGI... grounded characters, etc. First Class is a teen film, but more CGI will require a higher budget nonetheless. Not as high as 150 but close to that mark. Also, Box Office Mojo has this at 150 million budget? I mean is that for real? This did not look like a 150 million dollar film in any way, shape, or form...

 

[Figs]

Yeah that's the million dollar question... the next weekend numbers aside... how cheap will Fox get in the future spinoffs? Japan is a cheaper film. There won't be huge emphasis on the CGI... grounded characters, etc. First Class is a teen film, but more CGI will require a higher budget nonetheless. Not as high as 150 but close to that mark. Also, Box Office Mojo has this at 150 million budget? I mean is that for real? This did not look like a 150 million dollar film in any way, shape, or form...

Are you forgetting about Silver Samurai for the possilbe Japan sequel?

Some of his powers/abilities will require CGI.

 

[Dev]

Silver Samurai? Can't say I've heard of him.

 

[kedrell]

85M as I expected, I also expect it to drop to 25M on it's 2nd weekend. 170M tops. The lowest grossing X-movie adjusted by far.

 

[DarkKnight88]

Anyone trying to call 85 M opening "average" or "below expectations" is full of bull. Any movie would hope to get that much in its entire gross. So what if Twilight or Fast and Furious opened to 70 M? They're unexpected blockbusters. It doesn't make this opening any less than it really is. An above 100 M opening is a phenomenon not the everyday for blockbuster movies as some are trying to spin.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Anyone trying to call 85 M opening "average" or "below expectations" is full of bull. Any movie would hope to get that much in its entire gross. So what if Twilight or Fast and Furious opened to 70 M? They're unexpected blockbusters. It doesn't make this opening any less than it really is. An above 100 M opening is a phenomenon not the everyday for blockbuster movies as some are trying to spin.

Have you seen the numbers for these May releases??? 100 million is the norm this time of year. The fact that this is already a popular character of a successful franchise it should have done 100 million. Maybe the work print killed it... so what? No way Fox can recoup that money... and that could be the difference between getting only one or two more spinoffs as opposed to 3-4.

 

[jebhdb]

My guess is the studio was disappointed with the weekend box office for Wolverine. I would think that Wolverine would be a more popular and more well known character than Iron Man, yet Wolverine failed to equal Iron Man's opening weekend. With Star Trek opening this weekend my guess is Wolverine's hold over won't be great. I hope I'm wrong though as I enjoyed Wolverine despite it's flaws.

 

[DarkKnight88]

Have you seen the numbers for these May releases??? 100 million is the norm this time of year. The fact that this is already a popular character of a successful franchise it should have done 100 million. Maybe the work print killed it... so what? No way Fox can recoup that money... and that could be the difference between getting only one or two more spinoffs as opposed to 3-4.

Spider-Man and Pirates of the Caribbean? Those are anomalies.. NOT the norm.

 

[Project862006]

they are already at $158,058,003 in 3 days they have made their budget back and it is only one weekend people need to calm down.

85 million Domestic on opening weekend with horrible review and the movie leaked online is pretty damn impressive if you ask me

 

[Project862006]

double post

 

[DW4]

It passed the budget people, that's all that matters. It will probably make about 300 million internationally.

Jesus some of you are annoying.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Spider-Man and Pirates of the Caribbean? Those are anomalies.. NOT the norm.

So I guess all these other franchises like IM, Indy, Shrek, Potter are anomalies as well...

 

[Theweepeople]

So I guess all these other franchises like IM, Indy, Shrek, Potter are anomalies as well...

Was Transformers also an anomaly? If Star Trek makes around 100million during it's first weekend will it also be an anomaly?

 

[Blade X]

Are you forgetting about Silver Samurai for the possilbe Japan sequel?

Some of his powers/abilities will require CGI.

How expensive would it be to make his sword glow? His ONLY mutant power is to generate a tackiyon (sp) field around his sword so that it can cut through virtually anything.

 

[Angamb]

has been update with the monday numbers?

 

[DarkKnight88]

So I guess all these other franchises like IM, Indy, Shrek, Potter are anomalies as well...

Uh... yeah they are! Come on... Indiana Jones is a classic franchise beloved by generations so of course after 20 years the new film would open like it did. Iron Man and Transformers did NOT open over 100 M. Shrek is an anomaly. How many animated films open as huge as the last two have? None. Not even close. These films aren't the norm and studios are lucky if they ever get franchises like these. Please... you guys talk like this happens all the time. Newsflash: It doesn't.