Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[Spider-Fan]

85 mil was more than I thought it would make, and I would consider that a success. However, I don't see it making 200 mil domestically, which I think FOX will take but not be really happy about. I think it will have large drops, especially with Star Trek opening next week. I personally hope no sequel is made. I'd rather see them try X-Men: First Class as opposed to anymore "solo" character spin-offs for a while.

 

[Spider-Fan]

they are already at $158,058,003 in 3 days they have made their budget back and it is only one weekend people need to calm down.

85 million Domestic on opening weekend with horrible review and the movie leaked online is pretty damn impressive if you ask me

The studio doesn't take all the BO returns from a film's run at the BO, so it hasn't yet. It is going to make it's budget back in all likelihood, however.

I think the opening is good for the movie, but it is still down from X3, it will gross less than X2 or X3 likely, and I think it will drop at a high rate. While I'm sure FOX should be happy about its take to an extent, if the film drops like I think it will, this franchise will have shown poor legs and a loss of interest. FOX can't be happy about that, and they need to put more effort in future films. Not continue their cookie cutter format. It's hurting their profit margins.

 

[LastSunrise1981]

I honestly think the public to some extent is getting burned out on superhero movies honestly. Last year I consider it to almost be the peak of the superhero film franchise.

I mean Iron Man, Incredible Hulk, and The Dark Knight? Those were all great films and it's hard to top them. I feel Marvel and DC did the smart thing by not having ANY superhero films come out this year and I knew Wolverine wouldn't do as well as many expected. How was Wolverine going to top the success and greatness(IMO) of those films?

Marvel was smart for not rushing Captain America, Thor, Ant-Man, and obviously the Avengers. Hell, in the coming years it's going to be a packed superhero season with Iron Man II, Batman sequel, Captain America, Thor, and Avengers film coming out.

 

[craigdbfan]

2011 is going to be a crazy year.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I don't think the audience is sick of superhero movies yet. IM made over 300 mil and TDK broke records just last year. While TIH did underperform, I think the successes of IM and TDK have shown audience interest is still there. However, if the genre is to have a future, the quality of the films needs to remain high. Cookie cutter, generic films won't cut it in the future.

 

[terry78]

DC has yet to even open their vault yet. If they get good crews and casts for their franchises, they could surpass Marvel if they choose to do so.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I've always been a Marvel person myself, but there are a number of DC superheroes I think would be awesome on film, and many I have even brainstormed on how I would do them.

DC definately has mostly been untapped as of yet. However, my excitement for SM4 and the Marvel Studios films is very high

 

[craigdbfan]

I'm pretty sure DC/WB are aiming for quality films. I mean the reported budget for Green Lantern is 150 million with a competent director.

This is good IMO. If both Marvel and DC keep crafting great films and receive gigantic earnings in the BO it will serve as an incentive for these two to keep producing quality. It will create a healthy competitive environment and the fans and moviegoers will benefit from just seeing these characters so brilliantly handled on the big screen.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Agreed. Hopefully FOX will catch on if Marvel and WB generate revenue doing this, but I still doubt they will.

 

[night0205]

Marvel is ahead of the game because their characters are better.

Except Batman! But I would love to see some good DC movies.

 

[rogue trooper]

Marvel is ahead of the game because their characters are better.

Except Batman! But I would love to see some good DC movies.

Umm, Watchmen, anyone?!! Best superhero movie so far this year, that's for sure.

 

[night0205]

Watchmen is a different animal altogether. You wouldn't see them showing up in the Justice League. Different universe.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Watchmen's a one shot though. Not a franchise.

 

[Dev]

I wouldn't necessarily call Marvel characters "better" as mentioned above but they are definitely more interesting than the characters DC has.

 

[night0205]

DC characters are more god like, which is cool but hard to relate.

Very Mythological.

 

[chaseter]

Me too. I heard it was different from the workprint soo much that it felt entirely like a new movie.

I've seen both and that answer is no.

 

[LastSunrise1981]

I don't think the audience is sick of superhero movies yet. IM made over 300 mil and TDK broke records just last year. While TIH did underperform, I think the successes of IM and TDK have shown audience interest is still there. However, if the genre is to have a future, the quality of the films needs to remain high. Cookie cutter, generic films won't cut it in the future.

The audience is there but you have to remember we've had superhero movies come out every single year. Although I had a feeling that Wolverine wouldn't do well since his popularity isn't like Spider-Man, Batman, Hulk, or even Iron Man to an extent.

Of course the film had a great opening weekend, but will it hold when Star Trek comes out this Friday? I honestly doubt it.

You have to remember that IM and TDK had crazy hype going with them as well. The hype for TDK was just insane when you actually look back on it.

 

[FaT_tONle]

I think it's going to get ugly by 2012 and beyond when X-Men, Avengers (and related films), Spiderman, and possibly a slew of DC films including BB3 all vie for the same slots. 2011 already has three films... all Marvel. And that's just the summer. I definitely think oversaturation will be a problem in the next few years. I mean do we really need SM4, Thor, and Cap all in the same season? But with the market the way it is it is becoming unavoidable having 3-4 huge comicbook/SH films in a given year.

 

[ultimatefan]

The Weekend Warrior at www.comingsoon.net is predicting a 67% second weekend drop for Wolverine. Sounds about right.

 

[04nbod]

its up to 90.5mill after monday andd 163.6 mill worldwide. no wonder the next movie is active now. Its only been on release 4 days. Star Trek may stop it going to 200mill as well as a small rewatch audience but I think thats enough for 150-170 mill domestic

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's weekdays have been nothing special so far. I'm going to wait for the Thrusday numbers to make a projection for Wolverine's second weekend

 

[Spider-Fan]

The Weekend Warrior at www.comingsoon.net is predicting a 67% second weekend drop for Wolverine. Sounds about right.

If it drops THAT much, that is catastrophic. The drop is going to be big, we know that. Star Trek has a lot of hype. But, 67% is very high. If it drops in that 66-68% range...then sequel plans I think will be halted for the time being. A drop that steep is extraordinarily bad. I think that's even worse than FF2 initially dropped (forgot exactly how much FF2 dropped...wasn't it like 65%?).

 

[JaD]

If it drops THAT much, that is catastrophic. The drop is going to be big, we know that. Star Trek has a lot of hype. But, 67% is very high. If it drops in that 66-68% range...then sequel plans I think will be halted for the time being. A drop that steep is extraordinarily bad. I think that's even worse than FF2 initially dropped (forgot exactly how much FF2 dropped...wasn't it like 65%?).

FF2 had a 66% drop, doesn't Hulk have the biggest one on record with 70%?

 

[Spider-Fan]

Yep. And the only reason another Hulk movie was made was because Marvel made it with a new cast, crew, and backstory.

I think another team based movie for X-Men is a much better idea than another solo Wolverine movie is. If this movie drops at the rate FF2 did, and it looks like that is possible, 170 may be hard for it to get. That can't please FOX.

 

[craigdbfan]

The Weekend Warrior at www.comingsoon.net is predicting a 67% second weekend drop for Wolverine. Sounds about right.

Don't want to go off topic but I think Star Trek will make more than the 67.3 million opening. I can't see this movie that has been getting so much attention make less than Wolverine OW.