Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[dark_b]

you want a better adaptation of transformers? or why do you want that a movie fails that people like to see in summer?

 

[Heretic]

Again...Batman And Robin was quite profitable, and STILL sunk the franchise.

Wolverine is making money...but NOWHERE near the money the first chapters made. Plus, the vast majority seem to hate it.

Celebrating the success of this film is rather stupid if you ask me.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

I'm not predicting that but Transformers is a lock to make over 300mil. I actually want T2 to fail but thats not happening.

No hard feelings Knaves. I like a good boxoffice arguement.

Hey, of course not.

Glad we see eye to eye, on some things at least

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Again...Batman And Robin was quite profitable, and STILL sunk the franchise.

Wolverine is making money...but NOWHERE near the money the first chapters made. Plus, the vast majority seem to hate it.

Celebrating the success of this film is rather stupid if you ask me.

I pretty much agree with you. I'd like to point out again, that the second Matrix movie was a huge success boxoffice wise but most people hated it and the 3rd movie made less than half of it's gross and it made less than the first movie!

Wham bam boxoffice is never good in the long run.

TombRaider made alot of money but because people hated the movie, the second one made far less.

Same goes for countless other films.

In this climent, a 50 to 57% drop is actually very decent to good for a huge opener especially if it does better the following weekends but 68% is never a good or acceptable drop.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Again...Batman And Robin was quite profitable, and STILL sunk the franchise.

Wolverine is making money...but NOWHERE near the money the first chapters made. Plus, the vast majority seem to hate it.

Celebrating the success of this film is rather stupid if you ask me.

I don't think anyone is celebrating anything.

And as I said, I don't think any movie this year can be compared to previous years. It's a completely different playing field.

Comparing the drops of movies this year to previous years is moot.

 

[danoyse]

Just repeating an earlier post, as a reminder to everyone:

Obviously the big drop was expected this weekend. Anyone who didn't like the movie who wants to be happy about it, fine. However:

Anyone who wants to come in here and thumb their nose at people over this, not acceptable.

Anyone who loved the movie who wants to accuse people having a bias or irrational hatred of a movie, also not acceptable.

Flaming other posters over this will not be tolerated under any circumstance. Let's act like grownups, everyone.

 

[EnDz0n3]

I was actually surprised that I enjoyed Wolverine but people have got to understand that 68% or more drop at the box office for a big movie like this does not bode well for it in the long run. A drop like that is fairly rare.

I think disastrous just about sums it up.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

S'cool Danoyse. I don't think any of that will be going on now. Well I won't be participating in it.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

I was actually surprised that I enjoyed Wolverine but people have got to understand that 68% or more drop at the box office for a big movie like this does not bode well for it in the long run. A drop like that is fairly rare.

I think disastrous just about sums it up.

True. But a year like this is fairly rare, to say the least.

And I wouldn't call it disastrous, not at all.

Disastrous would be opening at 100 million then dropping to 25 million.

 

[Project862006]

Watchmen had a smaller drop lol

 

[danoyse]

Of course it's awful but not unprecedented. Hopefully (because I enjoyed the film), the drop will be smaller. It's a lot better than I feared earlier in the week when I though a weekend total of only $20m was possible. (That was based on FF2 and The Hulk)

I agree - I was watching what it was doing during the week and I thought the drop was going to be even higher than 68%, especially with the reviews Star Trek was getting.

(and I liked it too)

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Watchmen had a smaller OW though didn't it?

I think this movie will end up at about 200 million US, maybe 180-190. Add another 150-200 on top of that international. Some where around 300-350 WW when the dust settles IMO.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I don't see any reason for a warning but you are a mod and you have a right to moderate the boards as you see fit.

I know I'm not gloating. I like talking about boxoffice numbers and this is a boxoffice thread so I'm talking about them.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

I think she meant when you was accusing my judgment being clouded by me liking this film.

But what do you reckon the numbers will be when the dust settles Spidey?

 

[danoyse]

I don't see any reason for a warning but you are a mod and you have a right to moderate the boards as you see fit.

I know I'm not gloating. I like talking about boxoffice numbers and this is a boxoffice thread so I'm talking about them.

And that's fine. The reminder wasn't issued to you directly. It was directed to those who like to take these things and turn them into some silly argument over who was right and who was wrong.

It happens all the time in these threads, and I just wanted to remind everyone to keep the thread on topic, which looks like it is, so far.

 

[neemer5]

I'm not sure where people are getting numbers from, but to clarify:

Wolverine's budget is 150 million.
Wolverines marketing and distribution is between 50-75 million domestically.
It's foreign marketing and distribution is undetermined, but it usually mirrors the domestic.

Wolverine will likely come close to 300 million worldwide. The total budget is likely close to 300 million, including worldwide marketing and distribution. It will likely cover the film costs...

BUT, you have to look at the return on investment, or what most Producers call "the bottom line." 15-20% is considered a pretty solid return, as any 2 year investment would be. Wolverine is likely going to fall short of that. Hopefully producers will see that their strategy didn't line their pockets as they thought it would, and they will do things differently.

Also, a drop was expected by both industry analysts and the studio. But a drop this big was not forecasted. I believe the expected a 55% drop from what I read.

 

[neemer5]

Sorry, Double

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Where did you get all that budget info from? Box office mojo isn't always accurate on them things if that's where you are getting it from.

I just can't see how this film cost more than 150 million. No more than 175 including marketing, just can't see how that's possible.

 

[SP1D3RxV3N0M]

Where did you get all that budget info from? Box office mojo isn't always accurate on them things if that's where you are getting it from.

I just can't see how this film cost more than 150 million. No more than 175 including marketing, just can't see how that's possible.

Yeah, I don't think it was that much.

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

Well, I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but WO is now officially THE worst performer of the 4 X-films. Which is what I predicted last night on here, only I didn't expect it to happen this quickly. Here's a link comparing them http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=weekend&adjust_yr=2009&adjust_mo=&id=vs-xmen.htm , read 'em and weep, just remember these tallies are adjusted for ticket price inflation. Which means that at this same point after 10 days, all 3 previous X-Men movies had sold more tickets than WO.

Another stat from the same site, WO's production budget was 150 million. That's sans marketing and merchandising costs BTW, production estimates do not include those.

Second, for those of you still refusing to see WO as the disappointment it is, don't get too comfortable with that nice even 27 mill estimate and could-be-worse(< lol) 68.3% drop. That's very reminiscent of Fox's predictions for the opening weekend, an again even 87 or 88 million, only to find out when the actual numbers came in it fell 2-3 mill short of that. If that's the case, then WO's percentage drop could easily increase to the 70% or higher benchmark, claiming the crown for Marvel's movies.

I'm startin' to think this movie may have difficulty even reaching 170 million domestically, which is by no means a fiasco as some are suggesting. In the longrun it WILL be perceived as a letdown though, a la Superman Returns, and be stigmatized as such. This will most likely hamper the futures of Fox controlled sequels, prequels, and spin-offs that have gotten so much buzz recently. I for one, am keeping my fingers crossed, a third strike is not necessary at this point IMHO. Fox has screwed the pooch one to many times... good riddance!

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think she meant when you was accusing my judgment being clouded by me liking this film.

But what do you reckon the numbers will be when the dust settles Spidey?

Um, let me crunch the numbers. So it has an estimated 129.6mil right now. It made an estimated 27mil this weekend. (I think that they are underestimating it a bit, I believe it will have made about 27.3mil when all is said and done.) Angels and Demons should suffer the sins of TDC and open with about 55 to 60mil at best.

1.A&D: 55mil
2.Star Trek: 37.7mil-48% (without the weekdays which means I'm flying blind for now)
3.Wolverine:11.6-58% About a 148mil total.

So factor in the up coming hollyday weekend but it's is going to lose theaters fast so that might not help it too much...I'll say... 165 to 175mil total. About an even 2.0 multiplier.

And that's fine. The reminder wasn't issued to you directly. It was directed to those who like to take these things and turn them into some silly argument over who was right and who was wrong.

It happens all the time in these threads, and I just wanted to remind everyone to keep the thread on topic, which looks like it is, so far.

Understood.

 

[Heretic]

Comparing the drops of movies this year to previous years is moot.

You're right. History has shown that the worse the economy gets, the more people go to the movies. The fact is that Wolverine should be doing BETTER than movies released in previous years, but instead its doing far, far worse.

I wish that Wolverine had been a good movie, but it wasnt. I hate that I am so disgusted with a franchise I used to think was the quality high bar in superhero movies.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Boxofficemojo predicts production budgets and all that though. I honestly do not believe this film cost more than 175-200million including EVERYTHING.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

You're right. History has shown that the worse the economy gets, the more people go to the movies. The fact is that Wolverine should be doing BETTER than movies released in previous years, but instead its doing far, far worse.

I wish that Wolverine had been a good movie, but it wasnt. I hate that I am so disgusted with a franchise I used to think was the quality high bar in superhero movies.

I've already said I understand about the "escapism" and all that.

But this isn't your average bad economy is it? It's a major recession. And as I said, I think that will show on ALL of the movies this year.

I just don't think people will be splashing the cash that much.

So yea, comparing the drops of any movie this year to previous years is moot IMO, it's a completely different playing field. Especially comparing this movie to previous X-Men movies.

 

[dark_b]

Comparing the drops of movies this year to previous years is moot.

you mean a moo point ?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLwYpSCrlHU