Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[Kanon]

and for being the self-proclaimed king of mon-ami.

What the hell is a king of mon-ami?

 

[Silverglade]

What the hell is a king of mon-ami?

I think it must be an island and that character is the king there.

 

[Dark Knight]

doh!

LOL

 

[katie_girl09]

What the hell is a king of mon-ami?

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

Also, remember X3 fell 68 per cent or thereabouts without something like Star Trek coming along. So for Wolverine to fall 68 (or 59) per cent with Star Trek isn't too bad in the grand scheme of things.
Those of you who hate the film can go right ahead. But trying to use these box office figures to justify your hate as being a pandemic of negativity (sort of like swine flu) is futile. Are you so insecure that you need box office figures to validate your opinion?

For the sake of accuracy, WO's actual 2nd weekend drop is 69% domestically and TLS fell 66.9% back in '06. You say that's not too bad all things considered, but I say it's plenty bad enough. You can spin this as much as you want, but the fact remains that both WO's and TLS's drops are not a positive thing. X2 only dropped a very favorable 53.2% and X1 a respectable 56.9% by comparison. Box office is the best way to gauge the public's interest and reaction to any given film these days. Therefore, I don't think anybody is using it to justify their own opinions of WO per se, but more as a point of reference for their personal speculations and theories as to its success. Which quite frankly, is exactly what you seem to be doin'... i.e., pot meet kettle. And the "insecure" comment was unnecessary, it comes across as defensive, and maybe even as though you were projecting your own self-doubts a lil'.

 

[chaseter]

X3 didn't lose to Star Trek, it lost to The Breakup and still had a 67% drop. Psi is right, box office tells us what the general public thinks about these films and a 67% and 69% drop shows that the public went to see this film and didn't go back.

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

It's still No.1 in the UK I think too.

Nope, Star Trek's 8.8 million topped Wolverine's 3.3 in the U.K., but WO did stay #1 in France with 3.25 to ST's 2.8. Some more stats from the Variety article:

- Trek launched in significantly less markets, only 54 compared to WO's 102.
- ST won 23 of its territories and WO held the #1 spot in 22(not all had ST yet BTW).
- WO had 8,978 playdates and opened with 9,234, ST had 5,000.
- ST opens in Japan & China next weekend, while both have Mexico yet.
- ST has never seen significant international traction in previous incarnations.
- ST is 3% ahead of the 2005 re-invention of the Batman franchise, "Batman Begins," which finished with a 167 million total internationally.
- WO was #1 in all Latin American territories, China, Belgium, the Philippines and Hong Kong.

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

It's already close to X-1s final international gross.
It's made over 250 million WW already, not bad at all IMO.

When you adjust X1's final international gross for ticket price inflation it's most certainly not. X1's international 139 million take in 2000 would adjust to around 180+ million today. In other words, even if WO surpasses X1 in this respect, it may have actually sold less tickets and garnered less profit. 250 mill might not be bad, but I bet it's below expectations. Remember, WO also cost more to make, which is a factor a lot of people aren't including in the equation. To be fair though, production costs would have to be adjusted too, but X1's 75 million budget would still be under 100 today.

 

[neemer5]

Not that anyone's counting....

Wolverine weekend estimates were high. It officially made around 26 million (69.5% drop).

Star Trek's weekend estimates were low. It officially made over 75 million.

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

So basically, the money earned overseas is still in house? It's still Fox's money?

Actually, it would be News Corp.'s $'s, 'cause Fox is literally owned by them. This media conglomerate is run by a man who some would say is the devil himself, one Mr. Rupert Murdoch. He is liked by few and despised by many, especially in today's sociopolitical environment.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Also, remember X3 fell 68 per cent or thereabouts without something like Star Trek coming along. So for Wolverine to fall 68 (or 59) per cent with Star Trek isn't too bad in the grand scheme of things.

"Not too bad"?

What are you talking about? I'm all for loving the film if that's your opinion. Fine. But let's not sugarcoat the truth here. A 69% drop is TERRIBLE--especially when you consider all the advantages that this film had. No matter how you slice or dice this, the film has bombed critically--and it will finish around Fantastic Four numbers by time all of these upcoming blockbusters have arrived in the next few weeks.

And I'm willing to bet good money that Star Trek won't suffer a similar fall this weekend--and that's in the face of Angels & Demons.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Not that anyone's counting....

Wolverine weekend estimates were high. It officially made around 26 million (69.5% drop).

Star Trek's weekend estimates were low. It officially made over 75 million.

Star Trek's official numbers for this past weekend is $79 million actually...which has shocked just about everybody. In addition, it broke all of IMAX's records--including the ones The Dark Knight just set last summer. Now, imagine if it didn't have to deal with residue from Wolverine...it possibly might have opened around $100M. At any rate, it's going to hold strongly for the weeks to come and I suspect it will completely eat up any leftover audiences from A&D. Wolverine is going to be dead come this weekend.

And I wouldn't be suprised if FOX has a lot to do with getting rid of that extra .5% in the dallies. Round it up and it's still a 70% drop--I don't care what they say. LOL

 

[Chewy]

Star Trek's official numbers for this past weekend is $79 million actually...which has shocked just about everybody. In addition, it broke all of IMAX's records--including the ones The Dark Knight just set last summer. Now, imagine if it didn't have to deal with residue from Wolverine...it possibly might have opened around $100M. At any rate, it's going to hold strongly for the weeks to come and I suspect it will completely eat up any leftover audiences from A&D. Wolverine is going to be dead come this weekend.

And I wouldn't be suprised if FOX has a lot to do with getting rid of that extra .5% in the dallies. Round it up and it's still a 70% drop--I don't care what they say. LOL

Technically Trek only made 75M over the weekend, as 4 million of that 79M haul were from 7PM-12AM shows on Thursday, ie not counted towards the weekend.

It's the same reason Iron Man technically didn't open to 100M weekend last year - Thursday preview shows. I'm not sure why Paramount does it

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

Give it time for in the end ST will out do Wolverine.

Without a doubt, no truer words have been spoken. I went and saw ST for the first time today at an IMAX theatre. Let me tell ya, it was pretty damn packed for a Monday afternoon. I thought the film was brilliant, and judging by the reaction from the crowd, so did A LOT of other people. It was one of the best movies I've ever seen, it had everything! How I wish J.J. Abrams could get creative control of the X-Men, which he and his entire think tank are HUGE fans of BTW. I'm guessin' it could quite possibly match or even pass Wolverine by the end of its second weekend. ST's actual opening weekend haul was $79,204,289, which was significantly better than the 50 million expected and not that far behind WO's $85,058,003. ST also broke the IMAX biggest-grossing weekend ever record with 8.5 million, besting The Dark Knight's previous benchmark of 6.3 million. I'll say Trek will do 25-30 mill thru the weekdays, and capture between 30 and 40 million next weekend. For reference, here are the 4 movies both WO and ST currently have to beat in reaching that coveted #1 spot:

1 - Monsters Vs. Aliens @ $186,774,092
2 - Fast and Furious #?(< lol) @ $151,798,755
3 - Paul Blart: Mall Cop @ $145,790,203
4 - Taken @ $144,197,013

 

[EnDz0n3]

To be fair, Star Trek only broke Dark Knight's Imax records due to the development of more Imax screens. The record was bound to be broken.

And im the last person to ever defend TDK.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

If Star Trek had sucked it wouldn't have broken any records...or held its own in the wake of Wolverine.

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

To be fair, Star Trek only broke Dark Knight's Imax records due to the development of more Imax screens. The record was bound to be broken.

And im the last person to ever defend TDK.

Yeah, but Wolverine didn't beat it! Or didn't Wolvie even get an IMAX run? And why would anyone have to defend TDK? I think it pretty much speaks for itself. Great reviews, MASSIVE revenue, and awards, not to mention lotsa love from the public... = HUGE success! Defending it would be like defending Iron Man, pretty easy.

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

X3 didn't lose to Star Trek, it lost to The Breakup and still had a 67% drop. Psi is right, box office tells us what the general public thinks about these films and a 67% and 69% drop shows that the public went to see this film and didn't go back.

I KNOW!!!!!!! The F'n Breakup of all things! Oh, what a world, what a world. God help us.

 

[chaseter]

My guess is that this weekend, Wolverine will make about 10 million and if it is lucky, will make another 10 million in its run. That will bring the domestic box office to around 150 million dollars...that isn't very good That won't even make back its reported budget of 165 million or even more. I thought any film that doesn't make back its budget domestic was seen as a dissapointment financially? It didn't bomb but it sure didn't make the big bucks and after Fox's bad year last year and a bad year so far with DB and SF, Wolverine isn't going to help them out much.

X1 made 157 million and X2 made 214 million. This won't make X2 numbers and if it doesn't make X1 numbers then that is sad. That has to mean something for some people out there that want to deny that this franchise is on a downward spiral.

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

Why can't anyone have a discussion on a box office thread without regressing to a kindergarten level?

Because people who post on message boards tend to have very strong opinions, which they're passionate about, and sometimes let their emotions get the better of them as a result. That, and they just take s**t too damn seriously, lol. And I can say that 'cause I speak from experience... guilty as charged! There have been times where somebody has said something in such a way that I responded in a manner which I later regretted. It's an impulse, or what I like to call a knee-jerk reaction. When someone's judgement or viewpoints are disputed, they may take it personal and feel insulted, regressing to playground taunts in the process.

 

[PoSeiDon]

Star Trek was a better film then Wolverine. I'm an X fan for life. But Trek owned! It performed better than expected by anyone, grossed about 3 mil more on Sunday than people thought, ITS IS CRITCIALLY A SMASH UNLIKE WOLVERINE..AND

It has a chance to open up #1 again against A&D, a chance. Im not seeing A&D until after next weekend, its not a Friday night movie for me. The hype on A&D just came to a halt due to Treks GREAT word of mouth. So we will see...

Go ahead Wolverine, make your money, Trek was a better movie all around and the critics loved it.

 

[Deaths Head II]

I'm actually kind of depressed. I've been a gigantic X-Men fan since I was like four and I've never ever watched a full episode of a Star Trek show in my life, but guess which film I'm dying to see this weekend...

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

You know what we need!? A kindergarten cop! AYAUGHHHHHHHHHHHHH

LOL! "Iz not a TOO-MAH!" Good ole Arnie, sad thing is, he says even funnier things in real life that are meant to be taken seriously.

 

[X-Maniac]

If Star Trek had sucked it wouldn't have broken any records...or held its own in the wake of Wolverine.

That's not correct. It's been seven years since a Trek movie, the Trekkie fanbase is massive, levels of anticipation were massive, and on top of that the reviews were favourable. A strong opening weekend was guaranteed whether the film was good or not, purely based on anticipation for this revival of the franchise.

Opening weekends do not necessarily mean the film is unanimously considered fabulous. Need I remind you of X3's huge debut weekend?

 

[X-Maniac]

"Not too bad"?

What are you talking about? I'm all for loving the film if that's your opinion. Fine. But let's not sugarcoat the truth here. A 69% drop is TERRIBLE--especially when you consider all the advantages that this film had. No matter how you slice or dice this, the film has bombed critically--and it will finish around Fantastic Four numbers by time all of these upcoming blockbusters have arrived in the next few weeks.

And I'm willing to bet good money that Star Trek won't suffer a similar fall this weekend--and that's in the face of Angels & Demons.

Well, in relative terms Wolverine's drop isn't too bad. Wolverine fell 69 per cent against Star Trek, X3 fell 67 per cent against a crappy comedy. So, you could argue that Wolverine is a stronger draw because it had a stronger film to compete against.

Remember, Hellboy 2 plummeted 71 per cent on its second weekend in the USA because The Dark Knight opened and blasted it to bits (note that Hellboy opened later in other territories).

Second weekend drop-offs are not purely down to audience reaction, they are also down to the competition faced by the film.