Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[chaseter]

I find it amusing that so many people bash TS to make themselves feel better about Wolverine and try to insult fans of the Terminator.

Personally I thought TS was a very well made, gritty, intense, and realistic film that captured what I thought about the future war. Obviously it underperformed and I'm disappointed that films like NATM and Dance Flick have bigger audiences.

The one thing that hurt TS in my opinion was the overhype and I think Bale's rant had a lot to do with it too I believe.

Although I will be concerned if Harry Potter and Transformers 2 underperforms.

I have been saying that in here for a while now. Check every thread in here...if someone is really defending this movie to the ends of the Earth, they have knocked other movies to justify this one.

 

[LastSunrise1981]

I have been saying that in here for a while now. Check every thread in here...if someone is really defending this movie to the ends of the Earth, they have knocked other movies to justify this one.

Well Chase I'll put it this way.

It seemed like before films like a Wolverine and Terminator would be summer blockbusters. But films like Dance Flick and Night At The Museum put a dent in it due to the family friendly nature of it. Dance Flick is just another stupid parody film for the teenage populaton.

As bad as Wolverine is to me I'd rather watch Wolverine ten million times before I ever watch Dance Flick, Night At The Museum, or even Land of the Lost.

 

[danoyse]

I find it amusing that so many people bash TS to make themselves feel better about Wolverine and try to insult fans of the Terminator.

No one is doing that. Knock it off.

 

[LastSunrise1981]

I have been saying that in here for a while now. Check every thread in here...if someone is really defending this movie to the ends of the Earth, they have knocked other movies to justify this one.

Well, I do agree with you. But what can you do? It is what it is Chase.

But when you really think about it both films underperformed in surprising fashion and I definitely don't feel May being crowded had anything to do with it.

A film like Wolverine should've been bigger than what it was, but I definitely believe things like the economy affects box office intake. While the theatre is still considered to be "an escape" it's becoming quite evident that it's no longer the case anymore.

Even if Wolverine is bad and in my opinion it's bad, it should've did monster numbers still regardless of the competition. It's quite clear that the big blockbusters this year will be Star Trek, Harry Potter, and Transformers 2.

 

[danoyse]

Although the character of Marcus Wright was more interesting than John Connor, I wish Sam Worthington had played John instead of Christian Bale (who seemed to be doing a Batman as Connor impersonation)

And wasn't the original plan to have Bale play Marcus? That would never have worked. I thought Marcus was the best part of the film. I didn't like them making John Connor out to be this "prophesized" leader of the Resistance. Prophesized by who? His mother? I wish they'd just let him be this legendary hero by the things he does rather than what he was supposed to be.

I was apprehensive about Anton Yelchin playing Kyle Reese as I'm such a huge fan of Biehn and didn't want to consider anyone else in the role but Anton did a good job.

I love Michael Biehn as well, and I was impressed with Anton. I thought he did a really good job.

While I adore Hugh and love him as Wolverine, I think TS was the better film. In the next week I'm going to see Star Trek for the third time and TS for the second but I'm going to wait to see XOW again until it's on DVD.

I thought TS was far better than I expected it to be - but I ended up seeing Wolverine the day before with a friend and had so much more fun at that movie than I did at TS. It ain't perfect, but it's a fun movie.

Wolverine and Star Trek are my two favorites for the summer so far, and I'm pretty sure that's going to be joined by UP next weekend.

 

[danoyse]

Once again, no one is knocking TS or any other movie so they can feel better about Wolverine. If they like it better than something else, they can for whatever reason they want. Let's drop that attitude, please.

 

[EnDz0n3]

I think the reason I actually enjoyed Wolverine (and to some extent Terminator Salvation) was of the bad reviews. The reviews forced me not to expect much from either film. Don't get me wrong, both movies got a lot more wrong than it did right, but still I was entertained. Neither one will ever grace my best of list though..

That said, Wolverine has a reported budget of $150 M, TS $200 M. It's looking like TS will struggle to get a domestic gross of $150 M.

 

[topdog1]

It's looking like TS will struggle to get a domestic gross of $150 M.

 

[BestGirl]

And wasn't the original plan to have Bale play Marcus? That would never have worked. I thought Marcus was the best part of the film. I didn't like them making John Connor out to be this "prophesized" leader of the Resistance. Prophesized by who? His mother? I wish they'd just let him be this legendary hero by the things he does rather than what he was supposed to be.



I love Michael Biehn as well, and I was impressed with Anton. I thought he did a really good job.



I thought TS was far better than I expected it to be - but I ended up seeing Wolverine the day before with a friend and had so much more fun at that movie than I did at TS. It ain't perfect, but it's a fun movie.

Wolverine and Star Trek are my two favorites for the summer so far, and I'm pretty sure that's going to be joined by UP next weekend.

QFT. I can see how you might prefer WO. TS was probably the more technically proficient film, but it was also heartless and dreary. WO was at least fun in a cheesy way and it tried to have a heart.

 

[04nbod]

urggh..I've been away from the wolvie board for a while and the thread has turned into fanboy moaning. I think the numbers are looking good

Domestic: $166,381,907 53.4%
+ Foreign: $144,996,110 46.6%
= Worldwide: $311,378,017

That's conservative in the film's 4th week of release when films usually run for 10-12 weeks. While it may be past its money making prime its hardly over for this movie. This weekend will probably take it past 170 domestic and the foreign box office at mojo is a week behind at least.

 

[Celestial]

It's better than that - boxofficemojo hasn't updated the oveseas numbers for last weekend. From the-numbers:

Total US Gross $166,381,907
International Gross $156,700,000
Worldwide Gross $323,081,907

Edward Douglas has something worth saying about box office blogging on his latest Weekend Warrior column.
In particular:

The difficulty [...] becomes clearer when you have people who clearly don't like a movie saying that however much money it's made is a "disappointment" merely because they didn't like it. So far this summer, we've seen that with "Wolverine," Angels & Demons and "Terminator," and while none of those will be profitable based solely on U.S. box office, at least the first two have the chance of making it back internationally. It's also interesting to see that this phenomenon is having more of an effect on domestic box office than internationally, where movies like "Wolverine" and Angels & Demons are huge.

(I think boxofficeprophets is probably the worst for that. )

 

[danoyse]

Box Office Prophets is awful. I don't even bother with that site.

 

[the a1ant]

I'm happy with Wolverine's box office so far! They're very respectable numbers for a solo character spin-off film. The sequel will probably be a lot better too (ala X2). I kinda hope they stop at two films though

 

[danoyse]

I think the box office overall has definitely been respectable. The legs could have been better...but what are are you gonna do? I have no control over these things so I don't really worry about it.

I read that column by Ed Douglas this week too and I totally agree. Everyone puts a spin on box office numbers depending on their own views of the movie (and I'm not just talking about Wolverine), and it's really not fair when reporting the numbers accurately. Steve Mason in particular is awful with that kind of reporting.

When they first announced this movie, I thought it was going to be a one-shot thing, but I'll be psyched if there's a sequel (and I also hope this will be the last, at least for this character for awhile).

There was a report this week that Hugh and Daniel Craig are doing a play on Broadway this fall - although nothing has been officially announced. I'm more excited for that than I am for a Wolverine sequel right now.

 

[chaseter]

Most rational people knew this would turn a profit. The domestic take is alright but they could have doubled that and possibly made 300 million domestic.

 

[danoyse]

Most rational people knew this would turn a profit. The domestic take is alright but they could have doubled that and possibly made 300 million domestic.

None of the X-Men movies have made close to $300 million domestically. I doubt anyone was expecting that to happen this time.

 

[chaseter]

None of the X-Men movies have made close to $300 million domestically. I doubt anyone was expecting that to happen this time.

Other superhero movies have, what is holding this franchise back then?

X3 made 234 million domestic which was an increase from X2 which was an increase from X1. So, the logical flow tells you that this movie could have, should have made more than X3. The X-Men and it's poster boy, Hugh Jackman, now have a huge fan base. He is a house hold name and the X-Men are as well. This movie should have been huge at the box office. So, what went wrong? Well we know that critics and a large majority of fans did not love this movie. The huge second week drop also shows that the general audience didn't love it either. And now, it has leveled off and will not even beat X1's domestic take after inflation.

This summer is also on track to beat all box office records because when a recession is hitting the country and the world, people turn to cinema. So, X-Men Origins: Wolverine had everything going for it to make it a huge box office success but they dropped the ball and made a mediocre movie which hurt their box office take. Had this movie been a great movie, then I have no doubt in my mind that it could have made close to 300 million.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

I don't know how you can say this summer is on track to beat all box office records. No movie thus far has had really impressive box office, and HP and TF2 ain't gonna be doing TDK numbers.

So no, this summer wasn't ever on track to break box office records. Well, no individual film was. Maybe combined the box office will be big, but that's mainly to do with there being so many films, not one massive record breaking blockbuster.

 

[chaseter]

This summer is on track to beat numbers from last year and all previous years. I never said one film was on track to beat all numbers. This summer and year will make more money than last summer and year and some analysts say it is because of the global recession coupled with lower gas prices as compared to last year.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

I would also say it's because this year is quite packed out with big name movies, compared to other summers.

I mean last summer only had 3 in Indy 4, Iron Man and TDK. This summer has ALREADY had 3 big name movies.

 

[chaseter]

What big three have been this year? Last summer had more than 3 and TDK pulled the weight of 3 movies. Last Summer was filled with tons of great movies???

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Well you could say Wolverine, Star Trek and Terminator are big NAMES. Not talking about their quality here.

What did last summer have? TDK pretty much obliterated all competition when it came out. This year hasn't got one big mega blockbuster like TDK. It will be a more numerous amount of smaller big films.

I just don't know where you get the idea that this summer could be record breaking. And even if it is, what has that got to do with one individual film? If this summer breaks records it will be a collective record of all the movies combined earnings.

 

[chaseter]

I am not talking about one big mega blockbuster I am talking about people spending more money on escapism.

Lemme go find articles.

 

[danoyse]

Other superhero movies have, what is holding this franchise back then?

X3 made 234 million domestic which was an increase from X2 which was an increase from X1. So, the logical flow tells you that this movie could have, should have made more than X3. The X-Men and it's poster boy, Hugh Jackman, now have a huge fan base. He is a house hold name and the X-Men are as well. This movie should have been huge at the box office. So, what went wrong? Well we know that critics and a large majority of fans did not love this movie. The huge second week drop also shows that the general audience didn't love it either. And now, it has leveled off and will not even beat X1's domestic take after inflation.

Hey, I love Hugh, but outside of the X-Men movies he's never had a big hit film, so just having him in it alone would never have propelled this movie to $300 million.

X3 made the most money, but it's also the most critically mixed of the original trilogy. Couple that with this movie being a spinoff instead of a team film and there was bound to be some audience erosion this time. Fox's track record and months of online reports of the backstage drama behind the film certainly didn't help entice most of the fan community either.

Factor in that the movie was leaked online a month before it's release - regardless of the reaction of the film, there are plenty of people who did like the movie and didn't bother seeing in it in the theater because they watched the bootleg (a few of them work in my office), and those who didn't see it a second time because it was free to download.

I won't argue that the reaction and word-of-mouth overall was mixed at best and that it didn't have strong legs because of it. That's all true. I liked it, but I know if it had been better it would be making a whole lot more than it has.

But $300 million? Wasn't gonna happen.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

People spending more money, yea. So what has that got to do with one individual film? They will probably spend more money on different films. Like I said, there is more big name films out this year than last year and previous years. People will be spreading their money out more, not just going back to one film over and over again.