Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Well, I'd suggest you brace yourself. It IS Fox after all.

In terms of box office, I think this film has pretty much had its run. I noticed that others were saying that it was running neck and neck with Star Trek a while ago, but that is no longer the case. Star Trek hit the $250M mark domestically yesterday, (I believe Wolverine is around $178M) and it has grossed $376M worldwide to Wolverine's $363M.

I just wonder if this will resonate at all with FOX. Fantastic Four, Daredevil or Elektra failing is one thing considering that they are lesser known characters to the public. But Wolverine is Marvel's most iconic character--second only to Spider-Man. And he's barely outgrossed Fantastic Four.

What is wrong with this picture? And will they finally learn their lesson?

I very highly doubt it, after the Wolverine fiasco, I dont think they have learned their lesson in the slightest. I'm just hoping Rothman's new position means less meddling with directors from him.

 

[topdog1]

Well, I'd suggest you brace yourself. It IS Fox after all.

In terms of box office, I think this film has pretty much had its run. I noticed that others were saying that it was running neck and neck with Star Trek a while ago, but that is no longer the case. Star Trek hit the $250M mark domestically yesterday, (I believe Wolverine is around $178M) and it has grossed $376M worldwide to Wolverine's $363M.

I just wonder if this will resonate at all with FOX. Fantastic Four, Daredevil or Elektra failing is one thing considering that they are lesser known characters to the public. But Wolverine is Marvel's most iconic character--second only to Spider-Man. And he's barely outgrossed Fantastic Four.

What is wrong with this picture? And will they finally learn their lesson?

I want to see Star Trek pull down those numbers after having been leaked on the internet a month early. I can't tell you how many times I heard associates and even family say they saw Wolverine but they saw it on their laptop in their spare time. If people don't think that seriously cut in to the bottom line then they're crazy. Fox learning their lesson means that they need tighter security in the future.

Wolverine's run at my local cinema is over. (I don't count the bargain shows)

Personally, I'm proud to say that I bought one of the first tickets (midnight showing) and I bought the last full price ticket in my area (after the 10:25 pm Thursday 7/9 showing had started).

I'm happy to support the film especially after the pirate cheap shot leak.

I brought a friend to that last showing who had not seen it yet. The first thing he said to me when it was over was, "Wow, great action!" Then he went on to rave about how the film was better than he was expecting. That's so typical. When people see it, they are genuinely turned on by it. DVD sales are going to be large, mark it down.

 

[danoyse]

Star Trek still would have had better legs - the audience response was better, where Wolverine's was pretty mixed (although everyone I know outside of internet-land who saw it thought it was great - and I saw it 3 times myself). The leak definitely hurt, but it still would have done better if it was, well, better.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Star Trek still would have had better legs - the audience response was better, where Wolverine's was pretty mixed (although everyone I know outside of internet-land who saw it thought it was great - and I saw it 3 times myself). The leak definitely hurt, but it still would have done better if it was, well, better.

Agreed, I dont think the leak made that much difference, Star Trek still would have outgrossed it as it has done. I lot of people I know didnt even bother with the leak once they knew it was unfinished, me included.

 

[danoyse]

Agreed, I dont think the leak made that much difference, Star Trek still would have outgrossed it as it has done. I lot of people I know didnt even bother with the leak once they knew it was unfinished, me included.

A lot of people I know didn't even realize it had leaked online, but judging from people like the guys in our mailroom at work who were passing a DVD of it around to nearly everyone who walked in the door (I even found one of them watching it on his phone in the elevator at one point), I gotta think it definitely didn't help the box office, either. Because those guys loved the movie, but they liked watching it for free even better.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

A lot of people I know didn't even realize it had leaked online, but judging from people like the guys in our mailroom at work who were passing a DVD of it around to nearly everyone who walked in the door (I even found one of them watching it on his phone in the elevator at one point), I gotta think it definitely didn't help the box office, either. Because those guys loved the movie, but they liked watching it for free even better.

I dont see how they could enjoy the leaked version so much, personally, but there you go. The movie is up to over $184 million internationally now according to the Hollywood Reporter as well. Think it might make it to $185 then that'll be it until it opens in Japan.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

I want to see Star Trek pull down those numbers after having been leaked on the internet a month early. I can't tell you how many times I heard associates and even family say they saw Wolverine but they saw it on their laptop in their spare time. If people don't think that seriously cut in to the bottom line then they're crazy. Fox learning their lesson means that they need tighter security in the future.

Ok. Let's say Star Trek was leaked. If the fan response was as favorable as the critical one, moviegoers still would've flocked to theaters to see the real thing in its full glory. I think you may be underestimating the fact that apparently a large number of fans who did bother to see the leak were not impressed with what they saw. In fact, many of my fanboy friends appreciated the "heads up" so they could save their money. And these guys were sincerely looking forward to it.

Personally, I see these box office numbers within the pattern for all of FOX's hero films...with the exception of "Last Stand" of course (which was building off of Singer's momentum in X2).

 

[BMM]

Star Trek still would have had better legs - the audience response was better, where Wolverine's was pretty mixed (although everyone I know outside of internet-land who saw it thought it was great - and I saw it 3 times myself). The leak definitely hurt, but it still would have done better if it was, well, better.

I agree. Watching a downloaded, incomplete movie isn't going to deter my willingness to see a completed version of said movie in theaters, if I truly enjoyed it.

 

[danoyse]

I dont see how they could enjoy the leaked version so much, personally, but there you go. The movie is up to over $184 million internationally now according to the Hollywood Reporter as well. Think it might make it to $185 then that'll be it until it opens in Japan.

I think the part they liked the best was seeing it a month early and for free. It was like having a cool new toy that they didn't think anyone else knew about.

I had no interest in the leaked version and I still haven't seen it. Maybe I'm just old, but I like to see movies in the theater, and as spoiler-free as possible. And I was surprised, after a month of enforcing the 'no bootleg spoiler' rule here, there was still a lot of stuff in the film I didn't know about until I saw it.

 

[BMM]

I think the part they liked the best was seeing it a month early and for free. It was like having a cool new toy that they didn't think anyone else knew about.

I had no interest in the leaked version and I still haven't seen it. Maybe I'm just old, but I like to see movies in the theater, and as spoiler-free as possible. And I was surprised, after a month of enforcing the 'no bootleg spoiler' rule here, there was still a lot of stuff in the film I didn't know about until I saw it.

Me too, which is why I'm avoiding watching any clips of Half Blood Prince, even though I know the outcome.

 

[danoyse]

Me too, which is why I'm avoiding watching any clips of Half Blood Prince, even though I know the outcome.

Same here. I just saw the full trailer for the first time this week. The rest can wait until I see the movie on Saturday.

 

[Celestial]

The domestic total is now $178,841,391. $179m looks certain and $180m looks possible.

 

[Downhere]

The domestic total is now $178,841,391. $179m looks certain and $180m looks possible.

Yeah, it should be hitting the lower run theaters soon so it could definitely make it to 180.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Ok. Let's say Star Trek was leaked. If the fan response was as favorable as the critical one, moviegoers still would've flocked to theaters to see the real thing in its full glory. I think you may be underestimating the fact that apparently a large number of fans who did bother to see the leak were not impressed with what they saw. In fact, many of my fanboy friends appreciated the "heads up" so they could save their money. And these guys were sincerely looking forward to it.

Personally, I see these box office numbers within the pattern for all of FOX's hero films...with the exception of "Last Stand" of course (which was building off of Singer's momentum in X2).

Spot on, seeing and enjoying a pirate version of a movie, whether incomplete or not, would only encourage me more to go and see the movie in the cinema.

I agree. Watching a downloaded, incomplete movie isn't going to deter my willingness to see a completed version of said movie in theaters, if I truly enjoyed it.

Exactly, many people know there is nothing like a cinema experience with a movie, so if they enjoyed the leak, it would have encourage them to go see it. Evidently, plenty of people didnt enjoy the leak enough.

 

[topdog1]

Spot on, seeing and enjoying a pirate version of a movie, whether incomplete or not, would only encourage me more to go and see the movie in the cinema.

Exactly, many people know there is nothing like a cinema experience with a movie, so if they enjoyed the leak, it would have encourage them to go see it. Evidently, plenty of people didnt enjoy the leak enough.

Well, you're a true blue movie fan. Most people would rather see something different than see something they've already seen. I'm not talking big movie fans or even fanboys themselves. I know too many people that saw the leaked version only. They all expressed that they liked the film and would probably buy the real DVD when available. That's just the way the summer turned out.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Well, you're a true blue movie fan. Most people would rather see something different than see something they've already seen. I'm not talking big movie fans or even fanboys themselves. I know too many people that saw the leaked version only. They all expressed that they liked the film and would probably buy the real DVD when available. That's just the way the summer turned out.

I'm not a mega movie fan like some on here, and neither of my brothers discuss movies on the internet like I do, but both went to see the movie rather than the leak, i'm sure many people were the same as plenty of people know that seeing a movie in the cinema is the best way to see it.

Again, I dont think the leak effected it that much.

 

[LastSunrise1981]

Are people using the leak as an excuse for Wolverine's modest and very successful numbers? I definitely don't believe the leak hurt it. In my opinion it was just a very poorly made, rushed, and watered down product. If it hadn't leaked it still probably would've made similar numbers.

Wolverine isn't Batman, Spider-Man, or even Iron Man for that matter. His story isn't as widely known or as popular as the ones I just mentioned.

Shouldn't people just accept that maybe it wasn't the leak and perhaps certain fans, non-fans, and whoever just didn't want to see it or didn't like it?

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Are people using the leak as an excuse for Wolverine's modest and very successful numbers? I definitely don't believe the leak hurt it. In my opinion it was just a very poorly made, rushed, and watered down product. If it hadn't leaked it still probably would've made similar numbers.

Wolverine isn't Batman, Spider-Man, or even Iron Man for that matter. His story isn't as widely known or as popular as the ones I just mentioned.

Shouldn't people just accept that maybe it wasn't the leak and perhaps certain fans, non-fans, and whoever just didn't want to see it or didn't like it?

I think, at the end of the day, this is the reality of the situation, the movie has still made plenty of money, its just whether it was enough to warrant sequels. I have a feeling we wont be hearing more about them until the DVD sales hit.

 

[Illuminata]

I think, at the end of the day, this is the reality of the situation, the movie has still made plenty of money, its just whether it was enough to warrant sequels. I have a feeling we wont be hearing more about them until the DVD sales hit.

Agreed. This film also heavily weighed itself as an X-Men movie in the end. Hence the X-Men Origins: pretitle.

I honestly can't feel that this movie solely relied on it's Wolverine branding alone.

 

[LastSunrise1981]

I think, at the end of the day, this is the reality of the situation, the movie has still made plenty of money, its just whether it was enough to warrant sequels. I have a feeling we wont be hearing more about them until the DVD sales hit.

Well, I remember talking to people who are Wolverine fans and I asked them if they were seeing the movie and they said "No, I'd rather wait for the DVD. I really want to see Star Trek and Transformers 2 though."

I believe DVD sells will most likely help it garner a sequel honestly.

 

[danoyse]

There was an article in Variety a few weeks back about all of the summer releases in May - the only movie they referred to as a "misfire" was Terminator, although it did much better business overseas. By their estimation, Wolverine did well enough worldwide to move forward with sequels - not that that's a solid confirmaton of a sequel.

So it's wait and see. DVD sales overall are down this year, but I noticed it has been solidly in the top 20 sales on Amazon every since they made it available for pre-order a few weeks ago.

I'd love to see a sequel, but I would prefer if they moved forward with at least one of the other spinoffs first.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Agreed. This film also heavily weighed itself as an X-Men movie in the end. Hence the X-Men Origins: pretitle.

I honestly can't feel that this movie solely relied on it's Wolverine branding alone.

I think that was just a Fox tactic to get more people to see it, as was adding the likes of Cyclops in a cameo and showing him in the trailers.

Well, I remember talking to people who are Wolverine fans and I asked them if they were seeing the movie and they said "No, I'd rather wait for the DVD. I really want to see Star Trek and Transformers 2 though."

I believe DVD sells will most likely help it garner a sequel honestly.

It should do, I dont see any reason why it wont to be honest.

There was an article in Variety a few weeks back about all of the summer releases in May - the only movie they referred to as a "misfire" was Terminator, although it did much better business overseas. By their estimation, Wolverine did well enough worldwide to move forward with sequels - not that that's a solid confirmaton of a sequel.

So it's wait and see. DVD sales overall are down this year, but I noticed it has been solidly in the top 20 sales on Amazon every since they made it available for pre-order a few weeks ago.

I'd love to see a sequel, but I would prefer if they moved forward with at least one of the other spinoffs first.

I think they would be better doing it asap, Hugh isnt getting any younger, I dont see much Wolverine left in him, he is already 40.

 

[narrows101]

In an article about summer movies and how they fared is this:

*X-Men Origins: Wolverine is only about $44 million behind X2: X-Men United worldwide with about $20 million more to be anticipated overseas, making it one of the most profitable films of the summer.

According to boxofficemojo.com - and this doesn't include India (where it supposedly has done very well), Japan (where it doesn't open until September 18) and China among others.

Wolverine:
Domestic: $179,324,422 49.2%
+ Foreign: $184,810,829 50.8%
= Worldwide: $364,135,251

 

[Celestial]

Boxofficemojo doesn't have the county breakdowns for India and China, but they are included in the total of $184.8. It looks like the Japan release is in September. I don't know if it can make $20m just in Japan - that would be more than any of the X-Men films but less than Van Helsing.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Isn't Wolverine still the second biggest opener of the year behind Transformers 2?

I still see some people saying Wolverine was a financial failure. Idiots.

And the battle with Star Trek went exactly as I predicted.

Star Trek would make good money in the US. And do nothing special outside of it.

Whilst Wolverine would have about even numbers US and International.

But Star Treks US take would bump it up over Wolverine.