SONY Wants To Kill Captain America and The Avengers

[KangConquers]

There's no reason for Marvel to move Cap back a year or to July 4th. Jesus, you people don't get it, do you?

Captain America has THE best release date of 2011. May 6th. The first week of May is a better release date for a new franchise than July 4th. On July 4th, patriotism won't be enough to make Cap a success; it's a new, unproven movie franchise, and would get lost in the shuffle with a July release date.

In early May, it will open uncontested to at least 80 million dollars, with maybe an additional 40 million outside of the United States, by the time Potter 8 or Spidey 4 came out, Cap would've made all of it's money back.

If anything, Spider-Man 4 will suffer from Captain America and Harry Potter. Captain America will have uncontested press, draw first blood in summer 2011, and probably get great reviews.

In closing Cap will bomb in the July 4th spot. Cap will be a HUGE success in the May 6th spot. So unless they plan on moving it to May 2012, Don't move Cap. Cap in july will fail. Cap in May of any year will succeed.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Cap in July will fail??? What are you smoking... July 4th is the better date... and I don't how you think Marvel will beat Sony to the punch when they have a script and now possibly a cast and a director on board with principle photography beginning in a year. Again we don't know if it's all true but if that's the case MArvel is behind the eight ball. Release dates announced now for 2011 dates means nothing... as does releasing Cap and Avengers in the same year... and it's equally stupid to release three major Marvel films like that in one summer. My assumptions are valid.

 

[Spider-Fan]

All those who said SM4 in 2011 was impossible (mostly to me in the Supes thread) may now have to eat crow with the news. Spidey I think will make 2011, and Sony is showing they want it in 2011.

Cap I think can easily make the release date, but if Sony wants the date, Sony will get it. I think Cap will do well in July, but I think the May release date is much better for it. Sony and Marvel need to talk, that is really what it comes down to.

I also think Avengers in 2012 is the best idea now. I doubt SM4 will want to take another May date away from Cap due to Potter, so Spidey would probably move to July since TDK did so well there. Avengers to begin the summer season of 2012 would be fine, and if Cap was the only 2011 movie for Marvel Studios, I'd be happy. So long as Thor gets done by 2010, of course.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Releasing both films in May is about as bonehead as it gets. Competing with a Harry Potter with its long Memorial weekend to factor in, "oh and by the way we will overlap with another Marvel film at the same time" is just ******ed. First week of May is the only viable time for a comic book movie release and obviously both those films can't be released on the same day. July 1st 2011 is the best date for Cap... even if it means clashing with a TDK sequel a couple of weeks later. That's better than taking on both Spidey AND Potter.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Releasing both films in May is about as bonehead as it gets. Competing with a Harry Potter with the long weekend to factor in... first week of May is the only viable time for a comic book movie release and obviously both those films can't be released on the same day. July 1st 2011 is the best date for Cap... even if it means clashing with a TDK sequel a couple of weeks later. That's better than taking on both Spidey AND Potter.

If Cap came before Spidey and Potter, I still say Cap would make more than in July competing with BB3 (if it comes out in 2011) due to it being the summer's first movie. It would have a higher opening weekend. However, there us no way I see them sticking SM4 in May also with Potter breathing down their necks. SM2 opened on June 30th, and was a big hit. I see no reason Spidey can't take the July 4th weekend again.

I question whether BB3 will in fact be out in 2011 myself. 2011 is potentially way to crowded, especially if WB sticks to that Superman in 2011 pledge. I see Avengers and BB3 in 2012.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Oh I am not saying Spidey can't move... it would make more sense... SM4 on the Wed before July 4th... and then SM5 the following May. Even if BB3 is 2011... here is what that person is looking at... July 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th... that's a four day weekend not a three day weekend... you can make your budget back in four days... if Cap had that day it will be in the 120 million range EASILY. That's not even factoring in a Wednesday release like SM2 did... like Transformers did... like Hancock did. All those films made a killing.

And DC fans need to get over themselves... Superman and Green Lantern are non factors... look for Holiday releases.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Oh I am not saying Spidey can't move... it would make more sense... SM4 on the Wed before July 4th... and then SM5 the following May. Even if BB3 is 2011... here is what that person is looking at... July 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th... that's a four day weekend not a three day weekend... you can make your budget back in four days... if Cap had that day it will be in the 120 million range EASILY. That's not even factoring in a Wednesday release like SM2 did... like Transformers did... like Hancock did. All those films made a killing.

And DC fans need to get over themselves... Superman and Green Lantern are non factors... look for Holiday releases.

I agree, Superman will perform better in the Holiday season. But, as I have seen with WB, they are idiots when it comes to Superman anymore.

That is a very good point on the July weekend. I still say it makes more sense to put SM4 there (as an established franchise), but Cap can still perform. It's really in Sony's court now. We need to see how bad they want a May SM4. BB3 I think WB is going to wait on, but they'll likely place it around when TDK came out (since they seem to love that date now).

 

[KangConquers]

Releasing both films in May is about as bonehead as it gets. Competing with a Harry Potter with its long Memorial weekend to factor in, "oh and by the way we will overlap with another Marvel film at the same time" is just ******ed. First week of May is the only viable time for a comic book movie release and obviously both those films can't be released on the same day. July 1st 2011 is the best date for Cap... even if it means clashing with a TDK sequel a couple of weeks later. That's better than taking on both Spidey AND Potter.

I want you to read this slowly. Think about everything instead of just arguing; I think I've made some good points:

The best release date of the year for any blockbuster is the first week of May.

Cap has that release date.

Look at Iron Man.. It made almost all of it's money before indiana jones came out in late May. Indiana Jones had TONS of hype going in. Iron Man beat it.

Sony isn't dumb enough to set an early May release date if anything, it will be late May.

NO non-sequel comic book movie has EVER succeeded in June or July. NONE. Both Hulks... BOMBED. Superman Returns did VERY AVERAGE. Fantastic Four 2 BOMBED.

JUNE AND JULY AREN'T GOOD MONTHS FOR COMIC MOVIES. Only Spider-Man and Batman have EVER done well in July. Now...let's look at May openings.

Every first week of May opening for the past 5 years has gone on to do nearly 100 million.

Sony has not specified WHAT release date in May. THEY HAVE NOT. They could do the last week; in all likelihood, they will go for June as Harry Potter and Spider-Man being released close together would not bode well for either film.

So if Harry Potter is the 3rd weekend of May, that gives Captain America two weeks at top, for a total of about 200 million worldwide. It will gradually make another 50-100 million from repeat viewings after that, the way Iron Man still did after Indiana Jones came out. There's generally only a major movie out every 2 weeks or so in May. Cap's first weekend would be completely uncontested, which means numbers of upto 100 million in the United states.


If Cap comes out in June or July, it will follow suit with movies like The Hulk, Wanted, and Hellboy 2. It will have an opening weekend that maxes out at 50million, then continue to flounder, and not even break even domestically.

You're also overestimating the important of legs...the days of long lasting movies are long gone; the market place is set for super high box office in the first two weeks and then just a little trickle for the rest of the run. Cap would make more money in May than it would in July. Only Will Smith and Pixar can pull off early July.

 

[FaT_tONle]

The best release date of the year for any blockbuster is the first week of May.

Transformers... July
The Dark Knight... July
Shrek sequels... Third week of May
Star Wars prequels... third week of May
LOTR... Holidays
POTC.. July

Yeah almost all those films outgorssed Iron Man... so I really have no clue what the hell you are talking about. And Transformers and POTC: Black Pearl were no sequels.

Cap has that release date.

So release dates are set in stone especially when they are made almost three years in advance? Just so we are clear about this? This is what you are telling me right?

Sony isn't dumb enough to set an early May release date if anything, it will be late May.

Dumb enough not to muscle Marvel out but take on Harry Potter instead?

Sony has not specified WHAT release date in May. THEY HAVE NOT. They could do the last week; in all likelihood, they will go for June as Harry Potter and Spider-Man being released close together would not bode well for either film.

So we are going to assume this even when Sony says they want May???

So if Harry Potter is the 3rd weekend of May, that gives Captain America two weeks at top, for a total of about 200 million worldwide. It will gradually make another 50-100 million from repeat viewings after that, the

Yeah and that holds true with a July release as well... except when the Monday of the Fourth rolls around... Marvel will be making 30 million... not ten million...

 

[KangConquers]

Transformers... July
The Dark Knight... July
Shrek sequels... Third week of May
Star Wars prequels... third week of May
LOTR... Holidays
POTC: DMC... July

Yeah almost all those films outgorssed Iron Man... so I really have no clue what the hell you are talking about.

I take it you don't remember the 80s; if you did you'd remember everyone and their cousin was obsessed with Transformers. That had a built in audience.

Did you not read what I said? Pixar, Will Smith and SEQUELS draw in July.

Also, Shrek and Starwars.. .SEQUELS.

Lord of the Rings= the best selling book ever outside of the bible, you can put it in any release date.

I will give you pirates of the carribean. Completely unknown untested franchise, but that's VERY RARE.

so of 6 or 7 examples, only one is a valid comparison to what cap is; an untested, unproven franchise. Those get eaten up and spit out in July.

Oh, and Iron Man outdrew Dead Man's Chest. So your one valid comparison, something that was a non-sequel that didn't have a previous HUGE following, didn't fit the bill.

Captain America needs the early May opening. It will be swallowed up in July.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Shrek, POTC, and Transformers aren't sequels... so you aren't giving me full credit there. All the Shrek's came out the third week.

 

[KangConquers]

Transformers... July
The Dark Knight... July
Shrek sequels... Third week of May
Star Wars prequels... third week of May
LOTR... Holidays
POTC.. July

Yeah almost all those films outgorssed Iron Man... so I really have no clue what the hell you are talking about. And Transformers and POTC: Black Pearl were no sequels.



So release dates are set in stone especially when they are made almost three years in advance? Just so we are clear about this? This is what you are telling me right?



Dumb enough not to muscle Marvel out but take on Harry Potter instead?



So we are going to assume this even when Sony says they want May???



Yeah and that holds true with a July release as well... except when the Monday of the Fourth rolls around... Marvel will be making 30 million... not ten million...

Iron Man outgrossed Black Pearl; Transformers was the most successful cartoon of the 80s. We're talking about where it's best for an UNPROVEN franchise to put it's first movie. And the answer is May.

Sony would lose more money going Head to Head with another comic book movie than they would waiting for Potter to settle down. Think of Wanted vs. Wall-E in June where both took a little bit of bite out of each other. Or Hulk vs. The Happening. Just that with a bigger budget, and more to lose.

You just said that release dates aren't set in stone...Sony will move. Cap has an actual date, not just a month.

In case you didn't notice, major movie studios try to avoid chosing the same date; it doesn't help anyone to directly compete.

On July, Cap would make that 30 million on Monday and then drop off the face of the Earth, and wind up only grossing about 110 million domestic total. In May, it could be upto 200 million before Potter or Spider-Man were even released.

 

[KangConquers]

Shrek, POTC, and Transformers aren't sequels... so you aren't giving me full credit there. All the Shrek's came out the third week.

Shrek 1 and POTC didn't outgross Iron Man though, which was your argument.

Transformers wasn't a sequel, but it's still transformers. It was the biggest cartoon of the 80s. It was a proven franchise. They made like 9 figures off those toys in the 80s.

I'm talking about the best release date for Unknown, unproven franchises. Cap may not be unknown, but he's definitely unproven, with no major movie, and no animated series since 1966.

The best date for Cap is May 6th.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Iron Man outgrossed Black Pearl; Transformers was the most successful cartoon of the 80s. We're talking about where it's best for an UNPROVEN franchise to put it's first movie. And the answer is May.

Captain America is not unknown... MUCH MORE recognizable than Iron Man... we are just not being fair here c'mon now...

Sony would lose more money going Head to Head with another comic book movie than they would waiting for Potter to settle down. Think of Wanted vs. Wall-E in June where both took a little bit of bite out of each other. Or Hulk vs. The Happening. Just that with a bigger budget, and more to lose.

All June releases... not relevant to the discussion. Only becomes relevant if another major blockbuster announces a July 1st 2011 release. Until that time that weekend is completely free.

Sony won't go head to head... that's the point. There will be a week's separation between SM4/HP if we are looking at a May release

So you think SOny is better off in that slot than it would be in the first week of May?

You just said that release dates aren't set in stone...Sony will move. Cap has an actual date, not just a month.

How can Sony move from a date that hasn't been announced

In case you didn't notice, major movie studios try to avoid chosing the same date; it doesn't help anyone to directly compete.

On July, Cap would make that 30 million on Monday and then drop off the face of the Earth, and wind up only grossing about 110 million domestic total. In May, it could be upto 200 million before Potter or Spider-Man were even released

May 2008 had a down year... SR and Narnia were expected to do a lot better... look at 09's slate... you have Star Trek AND the Tom Hanks sequel sandwiched in there. May usually has big movies every weekend. It just had a down year. And we can't assume their will be a major sequel/blockbuster sandwiched between July 1st and July 15th (assuming Batman or another worthy franchise is there)... there is JUST AS MUCH chance to make a killing in the second weekend in the July 1st slot than there is in May.

 

[KangConquers]

Captain America is not unknown... MUCH MORE recognizable than Iron Man... we are just not being fair here c'mon now...



All June releases... not relevant to the discussion. Only becomes relevant if another major blockbuster announces a July 1st 2011 release. Until that time that weekend is completely free.



So you think SOny is better off in that slot than it would be in the first week of May?



How can Sony move from a date that hasn't been announced



May 2008 had a down year... SR and Narnia were expected to do a lot better... look at 09's slate... you have Star Trek AND the Tom Hanks sequel sandwiched in there. May usually has big movies every weekend. It just had a down year. And we can't assume their will be a major sequel sandwiched between July 1st and July 15th... there is JUST AS MUCH chance to make a killing in the second weekend in the Huly 1st slot than there is in May.

Captain America isn't an unknown, but he has proven himself to be a marketing juggernaut like the transformers. Those toys, cartoons, etc literally made a billion dollars in the 80s. They were huge.

Cap has had a great selling comic book, that has sold 210 million copies worldwide, true, but how many of those people who bought Cap comics are still interested? The current Captain America readership is about 80,000 (actually up from when Steve Rogers was Cap, so don't blame it on the use of Bucky.) a readership of 80,000 alone won't carry the movie in a bad release date.

The most important thing for an unproven franchise is to be right in your face immediately in Summer. If Cap is in the May 6th slot it could make 100 million in the states alone for openers. You said it yourself Cap is MUCH bigger than Iron Man was going in; Iron Man made 200 million worldwide it's opening weekend.

If Cap made 10% more than Iron Man, it would make it's budget back, and turn a small profit in the first 3 days. It wouldn't matter if Harry Potter or Spider-Man came out two weeks later. Studios don't like running head to head on opening weekends, so let's say Spider-Man cut off Cap's legs. It wouldn't matter, because it would've made 130 million in the U.S. already and had a ww total of 1/4 billion. It would already be a successful movie.

Independence day weekend, I can't see it doing anymore than 50 million in the states. People will have more options, and with more options comes less interest for Cap.

Cap's best chance is to score a huge first 10 days. If it doesn't, it's screwed. Cap can't score a huge first ten days in July. It can in May.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Shrek 1 and POTC didn't outgross Iron Man though, which was your argument.

No it wasn't... they were blockbusters... we'll be luckily if Cap is at that level...

Captain America isn't an unknown, but he has proven himself to be a marketing juggernaut like the transformers. Those toys, cartoons, etc literally made a billion dollars in the 80s. They were huge.

Cap has had a great selling comic book, that has sold 210 million copies worldwide, true, but how many of those people who bought Cap comics are still interested? The current Captain America readership is about 80,000 (actually up from when Steve Rogers was Cap, so don't blame it on the use of Bucky.) a readership of 80,000 alone won't

The most important thing for an unproven franchise is to be right in your face immediately in Summer. If Cap is in the May 6th slot it could make 100 million in the states alone for openers. You said it yourself Cap is MUCH bigger than Iron Man was going in; Iron Man made 200 million worldwide it's opening weekend.

If Cap made 10% more than Iron Man, it would make it's budget back, and turn a small profit in the first 3 days. It wouldn't matter if Harry Potter or Spider-Man came out two weeks later. Studios don't like running head to head on opening weekends, so let's say Spider-Man cut off Cap's legs. It wouldn't matter, because it would've made 130 million in the U.S. already and had a ww total of 1/4 billion. It would already be a successful movie.

Independence day weekend, I can't see it doing anymore than 50 million in the states.

That's all well and good but I am done nitpicking these details... here's the bottom line... lemme phrase this as clearly as I can... what's to stop Sony from walking into Marvel's door one fine morning and say... "Listen... we still have the rights to Spiderman.... we are intent on making SM4... we paid to make and distribute this film well in advance, and we are gearing for a May release. We would like to release this film on the first week of May. This is a date that has worked for us in the past. We do NOT... however... want to postpone SM4 for a later time under any circumstances. Marvel studios has taken this date two of the past three years... hell even Fox has taken that date once over the last three years with a Marvel property film. We feel it is our right to be able to choose the best release date for our product. We are prepared to offer even more money if necessary to exclusively obtain that release date... if we can not work out an agreement we will release SM4 dangerously close to Captain America... hurting its legs... OR Marvel Studios can pay us extra money and we can move to July 4th but this will cost quite a lot of money..."

Tell me... give me one good reason why Sony does not make that powerplay?

 

[KangConquers]

No it wasn't... they were blockbusters... we'll be luckily if Cap is at that level...



That's all well and good but I am done nitpicking these details... here's the bottom line... lemme phrase this as clearly as I can... what's to stop Sony from walking into Marvel's door one fine morning and say... "Listen... we still have the rights to Spiderman.... we are intent on making SM4... we paid to make and distribute this film well in advance, and we are gearing for a May release. We would like to release this film on the first week of May. This is a date that has worked for us in the past. We do NOT... however... want to postpone SM4 for a later time under any circumstances. Marvel studios has taken this date two of the past three years... hell even Fox has taken that date once over the last three years with a Marvel property film. We feel it is our right to be able to choose the best release date for our product. We are prepared to offer even more money if necessary to exclusively obtain that release date... if we can not work out an agreement we will release SM4 dangerously close to Captain America... hurting its legs... OR Marvel Studios can pay us extra money and we can move to July 4th but this will cost quite a lot of money..."

Tell me... give me one good reason why Sony does not make that powerplay?

Well first off souring their relationship with Marvel is not a sound idea; when time comes up to renew the rights after SM4-5, Sony might be met by Marvel's attorneys saying that Marvel doesn't want their money, and that they're taking the rights to Spider-Man back.

If Sony does bully Marvel like that, then Marvel should move Cap to May 2012, not July 2011. Cap cannot succeed in July. With Batman, Spider-Man, and Harry Potter in Summer 2011, it might be wise for Marvel to just put out a trio of smaller movies that year; maybe Runaways, Ant-Man, and another movie in February, August, and November.

I personally am more worried about Thor right now than I am Captain America though; Thor being released in June is the kiss of death. The only marvel movies I currently believe could handle July release dates are Iron Man 2 (sequel to a top 25 grossing movie of all time) and Avengers (Iron Man, Hulk, Thor, and Cap together...woot). I don't think either Cap or Thor can succeed in the mid-summer movie climate.

I'd honestly like to see Thor and IM2 switch places, or Thor moved to Christmas of 2010 (since Fantasy movies tend to do well in the holiday season). After consecutive Hulk bombs, plus a Fantastic Four bomb, I would never put a marvel movie in a june spot unless it was the sequel to something that made 400+ million dollars worldwide, and had enough acclaim to make people want to see the sequel.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Hobbit is 2010 I think... might be 2011... so Thor is unlikely to move out of a mid summer slot. Plus Sony loses the rights after 6 movies... and they said they are serious about a Venom spinoff. Marvel wouldn't allow them to renew rights beyond that unless Sony blew them away with an offer. But the issue here is Cap. I agree 2012 would make sense if they want the two Avenger movies in the same year. If that's the case, I'd like to see TIH2 in June, and Ant-Man in August or September 2011. But seeing that neither of those films are tentpoles really... Marvel is taking a huge risk being that TIH's box office was barely satisfactory. I am not saying that strategy won't work though. It's a decent plan. But we don't know what the plans are for 2012... Fox could come in and be like, "okay time for a new X-Men movie May 1st since it's our turn..." And then DC can come in any say "Okay time for a Supes reboot in July"... these are things that still must be considered. Those aren't the threats that Batman and Spidey are... but it still leads to the same problem... oversaturation of superhero movies in the market.

 

[Evil Twin]

You just said that release dates aren't set in stone...Sony will move. Cap has an actual date, not just a month.

In case you didn't notice, major movie studios try to avoid chosing the same date; it doesn't help anyone to directly compete.

Why should Sony move and not Marvel? Heck, Sony is apparently farther along in production, with a script (or at least story outline), director, and lead actor apparently signed up. Captain America has a logo and not much else.

I'm much more confident in Sony actually making that release date than Marvel.

And, it needs to be said, 2011 release dates mean nothing in 2008. And you don't get a release date by saying "We claimed it first". Release dates change all the time. Harry Potter being the latest example.

 

[RAMORE]

I like the may date but memorial day would be cool. My brother in law was killed in Iraq and memorial day is always special for my family and I could think of no better way to honor Eric than by seeing Cap on memorial day (he loved comic books)!

 

[FaT_tONle]

Sorry to hear that... a film like Cap has to be Memorial Day at the very least... I say bookmark that date for 2012. Avengers could be July 4th or mid July of the same year. That's the best solution. Marvel is moving at a snails pace... watch Thor get moved to 2011.

 

[Spider-Vader]

If Cap came before Spidey and Potter, I still say Cap would make more than in July competing with BB3 (if it comes out in 2011) due to it being the summer's first movie. It would have a higher opening weekend. However, there us no way I see them sticking SM4 in May also with Potter breathing down their necks. SM2 opened on June 30th, and was a big hit. I see no reason Spidey can't take the July 4th weekend again.

I question whether BB3 will in fact be out in 2011 myself. 2011 is potentially way to crowded, especially if WB sticks to that Superman in 2011 pledge. I see Avengers and BB3 in 2012.

Damn if BB3 & Avengers are released in the same year. That's gonna be a huge year for money. BB3 will probably beat TDK's OW. If Caps & Thor both get good financial & critical success, the Avengers will be a giant. Easily being Marvel's #1 movie.

 

[marcvader]

Memorial day would be huge. All the tie ins to that holiday would be a marketing execs dream come true.

 

[Peyton Westlake]

UPDATE ! Aint it Cool News has received confirmation that Will Smith is NOT under consideration to play Steve Rogers in "Captain America".

I hope this is as false as Pammy's ****.
Will Smith is rumoured to be the frontrunner to wear the country's colours as Marvel superhero Captain America.
Actor Derek Luke ("Miracle at St. Anna", "Friday Night Lights") let slip the news to MTV. "I heard they offered Will Smith ‘Captain America,'" said Luke, adding that the casting rumor "just shows you how times have changed."
I don't want to play the colour card here... but it has to be said that Marvel really does need to cast someone a little closer to the comic look of the legendary hero.. otherwise it ain't Captain America, it's just some other chap in the same garb. I know they were talking about Brad Pitt there for a while - he would be a much better choice in retrospect.
Robert Downey looked like Tony Stark from the comics. Will Smith looks, er, nothing like Steve Rogers. Please let this to be a Chinese whisper that's gotten outta hand.

 

[Spider-Fan]

If Will Smith is Captain America, than I have lost all faith in Marvel Studios cause they don't get their own material. This would be as insulting to me as making the Black Panther white.