POTC3 and Shrek3 are not locks to retake the weekend crown.
Using IMDB ratings
HP1-7.2
HP2-7.3
HP3-7.8
HP4-7.8 (It will eventually drop below 3)
Opening Weekends
HP1-$88.36m
HP2-$90.29m
HP3-$93.69m
HP4-$102.69m
Where was the big jump? When the previous movie was much better than the others. Three was great and 4 got the benefit of it in its opening.
SM-7.4 no ranking on Yahoo
SM2-7.8 ranked 38th on Yahoo all-time
POTC-8.0 ranked 9th on Yahoo all-time
POTC2-7.7 and falling, ranked 24nd all-time and falling
Shrek-8.0 ranked 29th all-time on Yahoo
Shrek2-7.7 no ranking on Yahoo
Shrek and POTC will be coming out after the previous movie was not as liked as the original.
Xmen-7.3
Xmen2-7.9
Xmen 3-7.0
FOTR-8.8
TT-8.7
ROTK-9.0
These series had better and better openings, because the previous movie was better than the one before or at least as good.
These series did not, hitting a snag on the second outing..
Back to the Future
1-8.1
2-7.1
3-6.7
OW
2-$27.84m (this was very close to what Indiana Jones 3 did when it broke the record 6 months earliers, before Batman blew it out of the water
3-$19.1m
Matrix
1-8.6
2-7.0
3-6.3
OW
2-$91.77m (would have had the weekend record if it opened on a Friday)
3-$27.89m
So in conclusion. SM3 will have the hype and anticipation, POTC won't. Shrek3 should be ok, because Shrek2 was only slightly weaker, I expect POTC2 to fall at least to the 7.2-7.3 range. I don't see either taking the crown from SM3 if it gets it.
AMAZING post someone wrote on worldofkj.com
Proves it that SM3 will destroy POTC2 and POTC 3 and shrek 3 won't break the record SM3 will set.
