Suicide Squad box office prediction - Part 1

[Matt]

first of all the amounts collected may not be ideal but are far from prejudice the WB, if so the most of Marvel films would have given injury, according to would not hire directors, cast announce early filming schedule, even a busy director as james Wan and then simply hold off for no reason, third and most important you give up before the third film of his universe enter poster would show a lack of confidence in wonder woman and justice league, and one more important thing you are forgetting the public loved the flash and aquaman the justice league trailer WB will fail to bet on these two icons and they form worshiped by the public as was the wonder woman in Batman v superman, they would be missing a great chance to then immediately bring these characters in their film soils months later, so there is no reason to delay anything now after justice league if things do not go well there can be

Dude, use periods. Your post is incomprehensible.

 

[paulogonza]

I still don't think Aquaman is happening. I'd give Flash a 50/50 chances. That said, Warners needs to tread very carefully with Flash's budget. If they lowball it too much, it will look cheap and poorly made. They don't want their TV show version looking better than their movie version. Imagine the ridicule that would follow. The costume on the TV show already looks better. The effects better not.

james wan hired , nothing show this movie will not happen unless your wish that this occurs

 

[paulogonza]

Dude, use periods. Your post is incomprehensible.

sorry i am brazilian dont have a good english

 

[Micromind]

Flash is already being fast tracked and there's some movement about Superman solo, plus I believe that Affleck's Batman and Wan's Aquaman movies are happening.

Wonder Woman movie could also get a sequel if the first WW movie does well financially.

Only DC movies that might Not happen at this stage are Cyborg, Shazam and Green Lantern.

 

[Matt]

james wan hired , nothing show this movie will not happen unless your wish that this occurs

JJ Abrahms, Tim Burton, McG, Brett Ratner, Bryan Singer, Wolfgang Petersen, George Miller.

This is a list of directors who, in the past 20 years, were signed on to do Superman films that never came to fruition. Hiring a director means nothing until filming starts. WV has pulled back from a lot more. McG was literally a plane ride away from filming his Superman movie when production stopped.

Its not "my wish" that is evidence. Its the finances of WB and the consistent underperformance of the DCEU..

 

[JtheDreamer]

What is my point of this rant? Stock prices are very delicate. They are not impacted by actual profit and they certainly are not impacted by promises of profit 12 months down the road when cable deals go through and DVDs sell. Do you know why? Because no company pays shareholders dividends (their cut of the profit) anymore. The companies simply reinvest that money. The only thing that makes shareholders money are their stocks in the company. The only thing that impacts that is what is happening at any given moment. Shareholders don't care about what you are talking about. The only ones who care about that are the board of directors who will use that money to reinvest in a way that hopefully brings in more shareholders. Shareholders care about perception and the impact that has on their stocks.

I agree with most of this. However, they are inevitably impacted by "actual profit" when quarterly earnings reports and guidance are given. That's when the chickens come home to roost, financially speaking. Prior to that, is when the "perception" rules the narrative.

Not ironically - the stock moved up a near 47% after the new 10 film slate was announced, which included the new DC movie universe. Granted I'm not 100% certain of how much true financial weight the studio's PnL carries when it comes to the entire stock, as Time Warner has many different businesses.

Spoiler

 

[Matt]

sorry i am brazilian dont have a good english

I see that. When you finish a thought use a period. Then start the next one with a capital letter. Even with broken English, it'll make it easier to understand what you're saying and have a discussion with you. Please understand, it is just very hard to understand what you are saying without that. Your English is impressive for a second language. Just add in periods and capital letters and you'll be set!

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I still don't think Aquaman is happening. I'd give Flash a 50/50 chances. That said, Warners needs to tread very carefully with Flash's budget. If they lowball it too much, it will look cheap and poorly made. They don't want their TV show version looking better than their movie version. Imagine the ridicule that would follow. The costume on the TV show already looks better. The effects better not.

I still think Aquaman is happening and so are the rest of the DCEU movies that has been announced.

About the costume thing, there will be another Flash costume made by Wayne Tech and it'll look much better. The effects will be way better in the movie, I don't get how that is even a doubt to anyone.

 

[Matt]

I agree with most of this. However, they are inevitably impacted by "actual profit" when quarterly earnings reports and guidance are given. Prior to that, is when the "perception" rules the narrative.

Not ironically - the stock moved up a near 47% after the new 10 film slate was announced, which included the new DC movie universe.

Spoiler

Yep, which set the expectations all the higher. Its important to remember, when this was announced, it was Warners's answer to the MCU and The Avengers. So far it has been anything but.

Its also important to remember, most investors are short term. Very few people buy a company's stocks (after the IPO anyway) and hold on for a year or even a quarter. They will buy, something will happen that makes prices peak or dip, they will sell. So it kind of makes the actual numbers even less relevant. They will ultimately just be a blip on the radar that causes another peak or dip.

 

[Matt]

I still think Aquaman is happening and so are the rest of the DCEU movies that has been announced.

About the costume thing, there will be another Flash costume made by Wayne Tech and it'll look much better. The effects will be way better in the movie, I don't get how that is even a doubt to anyone.

If the budget is too low they certainly won't be and the costume in the JL trailer certainly didn't look great.

Anyway, think what you want. The numbers are against you.

 

[Micromind]

I still think Aquaman is happening and so are the rest of the DCEU movies that has been announced.

About the costume thing, there will be another Flash costume made by Wayne Tech and it'll look much better. The effects will be way better in the movie, I don't get how that is even a doubt to anyone.

I can't imagine Wilkinson designed Flash suit looking inferior to CW's Flash suit.

 

[Knight-Tale]

That is delusional. Now-a-days romantic comedies cost more than 100 million to make.

So why did Deadpool cost 50 million

 

[JtheDreamer]

Yep, which set the expectations all the higher. Its important to remember, when this was announced, it was Warners's answer to the MCU and The Avengers. So far it has been anything but.

Its also important to remember, most investors are short term. Very few people buy a company's stocks (after the IPO anyway) and hold on for a year or even a quarter. They will buy, something will happen that makes prices peak or dip, they will sell. So it kind of makes the actual numbers even less relevant. They will ultimately just be a blip on the radar that causes another peak or dip.

Haha ya the "sheeple" (i.e. the public). They're over-emotional and flinch at just about every news release. On the other hand, institutional money is always looking a little further down the trough. Those are the ones I was referring to who will unload when the actuals begin to not add up on the earnings reports.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I can't imagine Wilkinson designed Flash suit looking inferior to CW's Flash suit.

Don't worry brother, it won't.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

If the budget is too low they certainly won't be and the costume in the JL trailer certainly didn't look great.

Anyway, think what you want. The numbers are against you.

I didn't like the suit to begin with but now it doesn't look all that bad to me. You may not like this suit and that's okay. I am looking forward to seeing the other suit and who knows, you may like that one.

No, I don't see the numbers are against me.

Do I think that MOS and BvS underperformed? Yes.
but
Are they hits that will move the DCEU forward? Yes.

 

[Matt]

So why did Deadpool cost 50 million

Because Deadpool was designed to be cheaply made and put extra emphasis on practical effects. Doing so in the DCEU would create a conflict of style that makes it feel very separate from the other movies in the franchise.

Haha ya the "sheeple" (i.e. the public). They're over-emotional and flinch at just about every news release. On the other hand, institutional money is always looking a little further down the trough. Those are the ones I was referring to who will unload when the actuals begin to not add up on the earnings reports.

Yeah, but how many of those are there in Time-Warner, other than the ones who are part of the company? I mean, in terms of institutional money, it seems like the current trend is to dump that into startups where you can buy low and potentially make a killing or buy blue chip stocks like Apple and hope that their next product release/sales quarter really makes a killing. I can't imagine many hedge fund managers are investing in a company like Time-Warner that is going to only fluctuate by 20 dollars per share at most. I see a stock like Time-Warner, at 60-80 per share as the type of well known company, at a reasonable price, that you'd see a lot of casual dabblers invest in.

Of course, you seem to know more than I on this matter. Are you in the financial sector? Is there any breakdown of casual investors vs institutional investors tied into TW?

 

[Matt]

I didn't like the suit to begin with but now it doesn't look all that bad to me. You may not like this suit and that's okay. I am looking forward to seeing the other suit and who knows, you may like that one.

No, I don't see the numbers are against me.

Do I think that MOS and BvS underperformed? Yes.
but
Are they hits that will move the DCEU forward? Yes.

See post on why perception trumps profit and why underperformance of JL is deadly to the DCEU.

 

[Micromind]

JJ Abrahms, Tim Burton, McG, Brett Ratner, Bryan Singer, Wolfgang Petersen, George Miller.

This is a list of directors who, in the past 20 years, were signed on to do Superman films that never came to fruition. Hiring a director means nothing until filming starts. WV has pulled back from a lot more. McG was literally a plane ride away from filming his Superman movie when production stopped.

Its not "my wish" that is evidence. Its the finances of WB and the consistent underperformance of the DCEU..

Movies slate don't get canceled if some movies "under-perform", now if those movies bomb, then sure.. Studios may rethink their strategy.

MoS (earned 668 mil), BvS ( earned 872 mil.) and SS (may earn 600 mil) could be termed as underperforming movies but they are not "bombs" like Star Trek Beyond.

Studios make most of their money from merchandise sales and by selling movie broadcast rights and DVD, Bluray sales.

I don't think WB would make any short-sighted movie like dropping their entire movie slate after JL.

 

[Matt]

Movies slate don't get canceled if some movies "under-perform", now if those movies bomb, then sure.. Studios may rethink their strategy.

MoS (earned 668 mil), BvS ( earned 872 mil.) and SS (may earn 600 mil) could be termed as underperforming movies but they are not "bombs" like Star Trek Beyond.

Studios make most of their money from merchandise sales and by selling movie broadcast rights and DVD, Bluray sales.

I don't think WB would make any short-sighted movie like dropping their entire movie slate after JL.

Again, companies do not care about blu-ray sale profits. They don't care about crawling to the black through TV deals. The product is their stock. Plain and simple. There has been pretty in-depth discussion on this in the past few pages, so I'm not going to repeat it. Especially since, at this point, I am forced to conclude that you are choosing to be willfully ignorant, ignore how industries actually work and opt instead to repeatedly stammer "but, but, profit eventually!"

 

[Blitzkrieg]

See post on why perception trumps profit and why underperformance of JL is deadly to the DCEU.

I do acknowledge that if JL underperforms, DCEU will be in a really bad situation where the subsequent movies might get cancelled or the entire DCEU shuts shop but I am not going to extrapolate anything and reach a conclusion so early. I still don't know the final tally of SS or WW, so I am not too worried about the situation of DCEU going into JL.

 

[kguillou]

That's the point i'm trying to make. MoS, BvS and SS's BO, while yes , DEFINITELY disappointing are not flops. So many blockbuster movies wish they could gross that much (ask Ghostbusters, ID4, Alice 2, Xmen and Star Trek). Yes, the budgets for those movies are HIGH so they're not adequate, but if you think about it objectively for a second, the mere fact that BvS COULD gross upwards of $900M despite scathing reviews means that there were a LOT of viewers that turned out for the movie. What does this say? The interest is there and people will turn up.

So, the answer? Obviously, make better widely accepted movies. But also, CUT THE BUDGETS. If BvS had somehow managed to keep its budget under $200M, the $875 haul would have been more than fine because of the profit margin and we wouldn't even be having this debate.

Also, there are tons of filmakers out there who know how to work with a budget and know how to be creative. Neil Blomkamp somehow makes movies with incredible CGI for under $30M. Sometimes budget restrictions forces people to get creative and squeeze every penny. A Flash movie can ABSOLUTELY be made for under $100M. Look at what the tv show is capable of under their miniscule budgets.

 

[brandeezy89]

I think Aquaman and Flash are happening, as a matter of fact i think Flash will still make it's production date in January. I don't think Ben's movie will be fast tracked even if they throw him tons of money. He's not even sure that he'll make the 2018 date they have now and seems to be very keen on perfecting the script to his standards. I mean WB fast tracked Ayer's script and look what we got.

If anything I think they'll wait to see how WW/Johns/Berg do before changing anything around. Wouldn't make sense to put them in that position months ago just to halt production before they even proven themselves. Since multiple credible sources are saying that Johns/Berg's involvement won't be seen until WW, i'm going to wait and see before i make any judgements on the future of these movies.

 

[Micromind]

Again, companies do not care about blu-ray sale profits. They don't care about crawling to the black through TV deals. The product is their stock. Plain and simple. There has been pretty in-depth discussion on this in the past few pages, so I'm not going to repeat it.

Revenue from merch is important as it is significant amount, this was the main reason why Sony made a deal with Marvel to retain the rights to Spider-Man by agreeing to relinquish the merchandise revenue rights to Marvel.

Short term investors don't get to make decisions on behalf of any company. Most of the major investors of big companies like WB or Disney look at annual reports which includes revenue earned from various sources connected to the movie.

Especially since, at this point, I am forced to conclude that you are choosing to be willfully ignorant, ignore how industries actually work and opt instead to repeatedly stammer "but, but, profit eventually!"

I know what I am talking about though I don't claim to be an expert on the subject. But thanks for the snarky response.

 

[TheVileOne]

I really think Warners will pull the brakes on at least one (probably Aquaman) and maybe both. Honestly, as I said earlier, if I were an actual shareholder of Time-Warner, I would consider a derivative suit against the Tsujihara and the board of directors if they do not pull the brakes. There is nothing to indicate that Flash and Aquaman will succeed. To the contrary, everything is pointing toward, at best, disappointment. Warners is burning money. I think there is a strong case that not pulling the brakes violates the duty of care that Warners owes their shareholders.

What I think will happen is, at some point in the next couple months, there will be an "unexpected" production delay for both. Warners will shuffle around a bit and pay Affleck a ton of money to have his Batman movie ready by 2018. With a Batman release, Warners will have some time to breathe and reconsider their options and gauge JL. Even if JL is 10 % on Rotten Tomatoes and nets 700 WW, Batman is still a guaranteed success. If JL fails, they can then do some quick editing and divorce Batman from the DCEU by downplaying ties. Then they can rely on Batfleck's Batman as their franchise while they figure out what to do with the remaining DC properties.

Batfleck movie is no guaranteed success at this point after what happened with Batman v Superman.

 

[JtheDreamer]

Yeah, but how many of those are there in Time-Warner, other than the ones who are part of the company? I mean, in terms of institutional money, it seems like the current trend is to dump that into startups where you can buy low and potentially make a killing or buy blue chip stocks like Apple and hope that their next product release/sales quarter really makes a killing. I can't imagine many hedge fund managers are investing in a company like Time-Warner that is going to only fluctuate by 20 dollars per share at most. I see a stock like Time-Warner, at 60-80 per share as the type of well known company, at a reasonable price, that you'd see a lot of casual dabblers invest in.

Of course, you seem to know more than I on this matter. Are you in the financial sector? Is there any breakdown of casual investors vs institutional investors tied into TW?

Yahoo breaks it down by Institutional vs. Mutual Funds (public): http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TWX/holders?p=TWX

Strangely enough the name has been a popular pick within the last year among Hedge Fund guys like George Soros and David Einhorn. There is also a lot of noise being made by activist investors in trying to get Time Warner to make big M&A moves. I've never actually looked into why to be honest, as TWX is not a name I care for.