Suicide Squad box office prediction - Part 1

[paulogonza]

http://www.**************.com/aquam...-teases-a-fun-underwater-action-movie-a144600

It does not appear that will postpone anything

 

[LoganGambit87]

I still don't think Aquaman is happening. I'd give Flash a 50/50 chances. That said, Warners needs to tread very carefully with Flash's budget. If they lowball it too much, it will look cheap and poorly made. They don't want their TV show version looking better than their movie version. Imagine the ridicule that would follow. The costume on the TV show already looks better. The effects better not.

 

[JtheDreamer]

That's the point i'm trying to make. MoS, BvS and SS's BO, while yes , DEFINITELY disappointing are not flops. So many blockbuster movies wish they could gross that much (ask Ghostbusters, ID4, Alice 2, Xmen and Star Trek). Yes, the budgets for those movies are HIGH so they're not adequate, but if you think about it objectively for a second, the mere fact that BvS COULD gross upwards of $900M despite scathing reviews means that there were a LOT of viewers that turned out for the movie. What does this say? The interest is there and people will turn up.

Looking at them objectively means that:

A: They're not providing significant return rates based on investment
B: They have a large built-in fanbase and brand awareness bailing them out during opening week

It's really the chicken or the egg here. How long will the fanbase and GA put up with this before the opening weeks begin to suffer? They would be wise to start scaling down the production budgets a bit.

 

[kguillou]

But i think its also worth noting, I dont think a movie can reach almost $900M on just opening weekend alone. To get to $900M, for any movie, that means repeat viewers in the subsequent weeks. Just to clarify, I'm not trying to make the argument that BvS was a financial hit; based on what the movie cost, it was disappointing, theres no argument there and we've nipped that in the bud. I'm saying, despite whatever it may have cost to make the movie, I think it takes a good number of repeat viewership for it to have been able to climb to $875M. I take this to mean that despite reception these DC movies have endurance. The last two Hunger Games couldnt even make that much.

 

[idiot09]

Suicide Squads 2nd box office monday is bigger then CW,BvS and Deadpool .

 

[idiot09]

But i think its also worth noting, I dont think a movie can reach almost $900M on just opening weekend alone. To get to $900M, for any movie, that means repeat viewers in the subsequent weeks. Just to clarify, I'm not trying to make the argument that BvS was a financial hit; based on what the movie cost, it was disappointing, theres no argument there and we've nipped that in the bud. I'm saying, despite whatever it may have cost to make the movie, I think it takes a good number of repeat viewership for it to have been able to climb to $875M. I take this to mean that despite reception these DC movies have endurance. The last two Hunger Games couldnt even make that much.

Agreed.Even if they MOS and BvS were relative disappointment,they still made a lot of money and were profitable.Can and should that profit margin be improved?Absolutely.Is the situation so bad now that they will reboot?No.

Its the same with SS.If they make 600-650 mil WB will be happy.Im guessing if they had China they would have even made to 700mil.That really would have been great.But 600-650mil is nothing to scoff at either.Its not GREAT but decent/good enough

 

[Iceman]

But i think its also worth noting, I dont think a movie can reach almost $900M on just opening weekend alone. To get to $900M, for any movie, that means repeat viewers in the subsequent weeks. Just to clarify, I'm not trying to make the argument that BvS was a financial hit; based on what the movie cost, it was disappointing, theres no argument there and we've nipped that in the bud. I'm saying, despite whatever it may have cost to make the movie, I think it takes a good number of repeat viewership for it to have been able to climb to $875M. I take this to mean that despite reception these DC movies have endurance. The last two Hunger Games couldnt even make that much.

The endurance comes from it being a huge underlying product rather than an asset of the films themselves. There aren't many possible film ideas combining 2 characters that you can put forward that would have the level of potential of a Batman Superman film. Even Phantom Menace showed amazing 'endurance' but again due to the underlying product being the first Star Wars film in an age rather than the film itself.

 

[Erzengel]

Agreed.Even if they MOS and BvS were relative disappointment,they still made a lot of money and were profitable.Can and should that profit margin be improved?Absolutely.Is the situation so bad now that they will reboot?No.

Its the same with SS.If they make 600-650 mil WB will be happy.Im guessing if they had China they would have even made to 700mil.That really would have been great.But 600-650mil is nothing to scoff at either.Its not GREAT but decent/good enough

I remember the Sony Leaks for The Amazing Spider-Man 2. $703M total gross and $65M profit. Now on BOM, they don't list TASM2's production budget, but deadline and other outfits have a range of $230-$255m.

Using SS's production budget of $175, a $600M gross will probably yield them $80M?

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Suicide Squads 2nd box office monday is bigger then CW,BvS and Deadpool .

Wow, that is cool. Both CW and Deadpool had a 3rd weekend of around 31 million and GOTG had a 3rd weekend of 25 million so I hope SS manages to make somewhere close to 24-26 million. That would be very good.

 

[idiot09]

I remember the Sony Leaks for The Amazing Spider-Man 2. $703M total gross and $65M profit. Now on BOM, they don't list TASM2's production budget, but deadline and other outfits have a range of $230-$255m.

Using SS's production budget of $175, a $600M gross will probably yield them $80M?

I am not going to pretend to be a financial guru, because I'm not.But from what I've heard from other informed people, a sum in the range of 600-650 mil will make WB happy. We also have to keep in mind things like merchandising, product placements, tie-in sales, homevideo etc which also bring in quite a lot of money.Is it ideal?I dont think so.I think WB would have been truly happy with a 700mil+(which I think would have happened with China).But as it stands its a quite decent position to be in financially regarding SS.I dont think they ever expected SS to be a runaway success either like BvS.

 

[Ozbridge]

Wow, that is cool. Both CW and Deadpool had a 3rd weekend of around 31 million and GOTG had a 3rd weekend of 25 million so I hope SS manages to make somewhere close to 24-26 million. That would be very good.

I think 24-26M this weekend will be very difficult, I don't think it can drop less than 50% from last weekend.

Btw true Monday is 5.003M, not 5.1M.

http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Suicide-Squad#tab=box-office

Any thought about today increase? Monday decline is a bit steep (61% compared to last Monday 56%) so I think Tuesday will 5.5M (+10%)

 

[The Joker]

Batfleck movie is no guaranteed success at this point after what happened with Batman v Superman.

Exactly.

 

[InCali]

Suicide Squads 2nd box office monday is bigger then CW,BvS and Deadpool .

You need to factor in that it is summertime and people are out of school. Not comparable.....

 

[idiot09]

You need to factor in that it is summertime and people are out of school. Not comparable.....

Yeah ofcourse,the fact I presented was without any context.What you have said+BvS/CW were huge tentpoles while Deadpool had a much smalled budget so cannot be compared+timing of year+ competition etc.Just shared a fact,didnt mean to imply anything.

Also didnt the schools start this week?

 

[BlZARRO]

Exactly my reaction.

Everything about these tv shows look cheap with the exception of Daredevil.

 

[JtheDreamer]

You need to factor in that it is summertime and people are out of school. Not comparable.....

Happens a lot in BO threads. LOL

 

[InCali]

Yeah ofcourse,the fact I presented was without any context.What you have said+BvS/CW were huge tentpoles while Deadpool had a much smalled budget so cannot be compared+timing of year+ competition etc.Just shared a fact,didnt mean to imply anything.

Also didnt the schools start this week?

Some may have, but both of my kids schools start in a week and 2 weeks out.

What's the sense of the final DOM BO #s. A little over 300M?

 

[Marz69]

Reminds me that I was watching collider the other day because they were discussing the flash & Ezra's comments on seeing Grant in the speed force. One of the guys on there is my least fav because he's so obnoxious. He was going on about how it would be great if they did a tv/dceu crossover but then the bad thing is that grant gustin would make ezra miller look bad because grant is so amazing. This guy has been hating on ezra and wants Grant to do the dceu as well (in his spare time when not filming the tv show ).

 

[InCali]

Happens a lot in BO threads. LOL

Does NOT!!!

What was written is true. I was just trying to supply some context. As the poster said DP in particular was not comparable. Fox was very, VERY happy with DP......so, hey, copy the $#!t out of it until it isn't fun anymore. THAT's how you make money.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I think 24-26M this weekend will be very difficult, I don't think it can drop less than 50% from last weekend.

Btw true Monday is 5.003M, not 5.1M.

http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Suicide-Squad#tab=box-office

Any thought about today increase? Monday decline is a bit steep (61% compared to last Monday 56%) so I think Tuesday will 5.5M (+10%)

I already predicted that SS will gross 5 million on 2nd Monday. t:

I was just being optimistic there and a 3rd weekend of 20-22 million seems more likely at the moment.

I predict a Tuesday gross of 6.1 million.

 

[Ozbridge]

All this talk about whether WB is happy, I think we commoners will never ever truly know. We don't know how much marketing and distribution cost, or how much merchandise and tie-ins and other sources of revenue bring. I mean just look at Star Trek Into Darkness. Its budget is 190M, which is quite the same level of SS, but it made a grand total of 467M WW. If you just look at its box office, do you think the next ST movie justify a 185M budget? No. But ST Beyond has that budget. My point is if we don't know the total revenue coming from all sources, it's just pointless to debate whether WB is happy with all of this. Well certainly it isn't a mega success like the MCU (which is probably something WB execs promise shareholders), but just not being the MCU doesn't mean it's the end of the world, I don't look into all the numbers but I think WB is still having a better year than Universal, Fox and Sony (and obviously Paramount).

@Matt: Maybe there're TW shareholders suing the BoD already but we don't know about. And if there hasn't been any law suits yet then maybe the situation isn't as serious as you think (though if your client is a big shareholder then you can probably call their lawyers to start one). Anyway I just feel that you're rather passionate and emotionally attached to this topic (about the current situation at WB and their wrong decisions/ action). If you aren't a shareholder and your client holds TW shares, then you can just recommend them to sell (you're in Wealth Management for private clients I guess). After that whatever decision WB makes doesn't matter to you anymore and you don't need to be so bothered by their actions anymore. All this discussion is all fun and informative but you don't really need to debate so hotly about that.

Tl;dr: just chill, mate

 

[idiot09]

All this talk about whether WB is happy, I think we commoners will never ever truly know. We don't know how much marketing and distribution cost, or how much merchandise and tie-ins and other sources of revenue bring. I mean just look at Star Trek Into Darkness. Its budget is 190M, which is quite the same level of SS, but it made a grand total of 467M WW. If you just look at its box office, do you think the next ST movie justify a 185M budget? No. But ST Beyond has that budget. My point is if we don't know the total revenue coming from all sources, it's just pointless to debate whether WB is happy with all of this. Well certainly it isn't a mega success like the MCU (which is probably something WB execs promise shareholders), but just not being the MCU doesn't mean it's the end of the world, I don't look into all the numbers but I think WB is still having a better year than Universal, Fox and Sony (and obviously Paramount).

@Matt: Maybe there're TW shareholders suing the BoD already but we don't know about. And if there hasn't been any law suits yet then maybe the situation isn't as serious as you think (though if your client is a big shareholder then you can probably call their lawyers to start one). Anyway I just feel that you're rather passionate and emotionally attached to this topic (about the current situation at WB and their wrong decisions/ action). If you aren't a shareholder and your client holds TW shares, then you can just recommend them to sell (you're in Wealth Management for private clients I guess). After that whatever decision WB makes doesn't matter to you anymore and you don't need to be so bothered by their actions anymore. All this discussion is all fun and informative but you don't really need to debate so hotly about that.

Tl;dr: just chill, mate

In Ben Affleck voice and grim face :" I agree".

 

[kguillou]

This may be a topic for another thread but do you guys foresee a Hollywood bubble popping soon with these blockbuster movies? I dunno, I feel like we are approaching something big happening to spark some change. This year was a harsh for pretty much all the studios (except Disney) and you gotta wonder if the all the guys in suits are having serious conversations about pumping out this huge budget movies back to bakc.

 

[JtheDreamer]

This may be a topic for another thread but do you guys foresee a Hollywood bubble popping soon with these blockbuster movies? I dunno, I feel like we are approaching something big happening to spark some change. This year was a harsh for pretty much all the studios (except Disney) and you gotta wonder if the all the guys in suits are having serious conversations about pumping out this huge budget movies back to bakc.

I personally think so.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Disney has the highest market share at the moment with 27.3% and WB has overtaken Fox in terms of market share after the release of SS and now WB are at 16.1% and Fox has 15% of the total market share and Universal is at 4th with 13%.

I think WB are just fine, they could have had more of the market share but what they do have is still pretty good.