Suicide Squad box office prediction - Part 1

[Iceman]

The fangirl effect seems even crazier. They absolutely murder the opening day and it starts falling off straightaway lol.

 

[JtheDreamer]

It made $330m. Then again judging from the crap from some posters one would think it didn't make a cent.

There you go again twisting what people say.

 

[JtheDreamer]

You know, you should really quit with the patronizing, half insults. People don't last long on the Hype when they pull **** like that.

+1.

Every comment is some snide remark.

 

[Tymminator]

If SS crosses 300M DOM then 2016 is a weird year because we will enter November without any movie grossing between 156M (XMA and where ST Beyond and Jason Bourne will land) and 299M.

Wow. That does seem weird.

 

[brandeezy89]

Mark Hughes just said in a Podcast that if it hits 600M+ then WB will be happy and that he knows the exact number of the budget (but won't say). Also Katana and her mask is one of the reasons why China wouldn't release it, the other is violence and such.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Went for my 2nd viewing tonight and was honestly expecting the screening to be quite empty, it was actually half full if not more by the time the movie started. It seems to be holding well here in the UK.

 

[Tymminator]

Mark Hughes just said in a Podcast that if it hits 600M+ then WB will be happy and that he knows the exact number of the budget (but won't say). Also Katana and her mask is one of the reasons why China wouldn't release it, the other is violence and such.

They should be happy then, I don't see this falling short of 600M, IMO.

 

[Kathemy]

Well, it does seem like the movie has better international legs.

This is the third time saying it but I just have a feeling that compared to an ordinary superhero movie Suicide Squad could do well in Japan. I know we have some Japanese posters here and they might shoot that thought down or provide some insight. It just feels like a film with a tone the Japanese might appreciate, I don't know.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Well, it does seem like the movie has better international legs.

This is the third time saying it but I just have a feeling that compared to an ordinary superhero movie Suicide Squad could do well in Japan. I know we have some Japanese posters here and they might shoot that thought down or provide some insight. It just feels like a film with a tone the Japanese might appreciate, I don't know.

I agree, it may well be something they dig. And who knows Katana may be a factor in it being successful there.

 

[Kathemy]

I don't know, maybe it's too on the nose and stereotypical to appeal to them? Then again what do I know, the only Japanese I know is my friend's wife.

 

[JKKS085]

300mil domestic is a win for sure,it would show that this movie had decent word of mouth.That would make the final multiplier around 2.25 that is the same as IM3's

So let me get this straight, SS displaying the same multiplier as Iron Man 3, the 3rd film in its individual series (SS is an "original film"), and the 7th film within the MCU (SS is the 3rd entry within the DCEU), coming out of the gigantic record breaking success of The Avengers, would show that the movie is getting a decent word of mouth ? Ok ! That's a miserable multiplier for any movie that isn't a sequel (and even for a sequel that opens below 150M it borders on dangerous frontloading).

DC films better keep opening big because it's all downhill from here and BvS sub 2x multiplier is going to become the rule even moreso than a terrible exception.

Although 300M is definitely a good number for a property such as SS, it would increase over MoS numbers and it's a decent domestic gross compared to the reported (likely lowballed) production budget. But it's another slap in the face after the terrific opening day (and opening week end to an extent).

 

[See Cap Run]

300mil domestic is a win for sure,it would show that this movie had decent word of mouth.That would make the final multiplier around 2.25 that is the same as IM3's i.e not great but not crap either.Ofcourse the same could be said for SS as a movie.Its not the complete BO disaster that have have said it is.

Actually, Iron Man 3 got a little over a 2.35 multiplier.

 

[DJThrawn]

A rare feat.

All-Time Comic Book Films in $200m range

All-Time Comic Book Films in $300m and above range

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=comicbookadaptation.htm

I don't get all the hate for the Box office for this film. I get the large drop and poor multiplier but let's face it. A film with a bunch of C and D list characters (Harley is debatable) and 5 min. of Joker will have beat every MCU film that isn't Iron Man or Avengers. GOTG being the exception. Civil War is an Avengers film like it or not and was marketed as such. They will beat both Capt. America films (Winter Soldier being their best film so far) , both Thors, The Incredible Hulk, and Antman. Also beats the X-Men films. That doesn't sound like a failure on any level. BvS I would say ok maybe but to say this is a failure at the box office is trolling at its finest. Critically I get the hate but the money argument is beyond stupid. I am glad this was posted. I did not see this kind of box office hate for all the MCU films it is HANDILY beating.

 

[Greenlite]

Also Katana and her mask is one of the reasons why China wouldn't release it, the other is violence and such.

I wonder if that's the case will WB ditch Katana for future SS/Harley films? I hope WB stand their ground like they did for TDK, because China's reason is just crap. But that's what you expect really, they had a special military parade last year which looks exactly like the one you see in North Korea and the normal people there went for it, censorship in general is worse than pre-2012.

This is the third time saying it but I just have a feeling that compared to an ordinary superhero movie Suicide Squad could do well in Japan. I know we have some Japanese posters here and they might shoot that thought down or provide some insight. It just feels like a film with a tone the Japanese might appreciate, I don't know.

Godzilla and Pacific Rim got poor b.o returns in Japan, but Katana's not the main player and SS is unique, so maybe they will like it? I have no idea, let's wait till it's released there.

 

[Greenlite]

This movie's box office is really weird to me. What other films have good weekday holds and bad weekend holds?

School holidays means better weekdays, and since students watched it during weekdays, less will show up in the weekend, thus the better weekday hold and harder drop for weekends, taking into account the first Friday had free tickets+frontloaded. Baumer of BOT kept on saying the 3rd wknd is the better indicator of legs.

It's rather funny that in the actual Box Office forum, where people mostly know what they are talking about, the tone of the thread is the movie is doing amazing.

They actually started a DC/Marvel thread for the random people to trash talk there, and ban anyone from talking crap other than b.o. in the actual b.o threads, which is great, now I can browse through it without having to read/skim through all the fanboy trash talks/hyperboles that has nothing to do with b.o.

 

[ManWithNoName18]

Deadline BoxOffice forecast
SS around 50% drop at around 21-23 million at number 1
Sausage party at number 2 at 18-19 million, with possibility of beating SS
New releases Ben-Hur and War dogs to battle for third both around 13-15 million

 

[Greenlite]

Anything over 20M is a win for SS I think.
The international number are slooow

 

[Iceman]

$300m won't seem too far away after this weekend.

 

[Serpico Jones]

Mark Hughes just said in a Podcast that if it hits 600M+ then WB will be happy and that he knows the exact number of the budget (but won't say). Also Katana and her mask is one of the reasons why China wouldn't release it, the other is violence and such.

I think he said it cost around $300m total with marketing and everything.

 

[idiot09]

Actually, Iron Man 3 got a little over a 2.35 multiplier.

Yeah I know but I used assumed numbers for SS (~$300mil) i.e it could easily be $10mil more or less.What I meant that it was around the same ballpark.

 

[idiot09]

Anything over 20M is a win for SS I think.
The international number are slooow

Are the international numbers in?Is SS underperforming there?

 

[Greenlite]

Are the international numbers in?Is SS underperforming there?

Lol nono it hasn't been updated since Monday, it's Thursday night my time here.

And Kathemy is kicking ass at BOT, he has ditched us for the big boys.

 

[idiot09]

Lol nono it hasn't been updated since Monday, it's Thursday night my time here.

And Kathemy is kicking ass at BOT, he has ditched us for the big boys.

And its friday in my country haha.I completely missed what you were trying to say

Last I heard the drop was much less at international,and it was doing quite well.Its yet to open in Germany,Japan etc right?That will bring in quite some money as well.

 

[Greenlite]

And its friday in my country haha.I completely missed what you were trying to say

Last I heard the drop was much less at international,and it was doing quite well.Its yet to open in Germany,Japan etc right?That will bring in quite some money as well.

Lol, Friday!? Are you in Fiji or something, I'm in NZ, the most? eastern country in the world.

Yes it's got Germany and Japan (the war nations), and it dropping less than dom, I'm not sure how much though off the top of my head

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Very nice Tuesday numbers, I predicted 6.1 million which was just over 20% from Monday but SS exceeded my expectations. t: