Suicide Squad box office prediction - Part 1

[Greenlite]

I agree on the characters factor, my cousin's co-worker told him that the movie is horrible and to look at the Forbes review for proof. We went on Monday to see it and after he said "WTF was wrong with the movie, I didn't think it was bad at all, actually i thought it was a good movie".

Should have read Hughes' review instead of the creepy Mendelson one

 

[Micromind]

bloggers/critics hate that its doing so well

look at this article from collider the writer was probably seething seeing suicide squad do so well

http://collider.com/suicide-squad-b...ersocial&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

What type of article is this ?

Fans are responsible for SS's numbers ?

Fans are a minor percentage of general audience, they cannot make or break any DC movie.

And, DC fans are a divided lot, they are far from cohesive unit like Star Wars fans or Marvel fans. In fact this is only third DC movie in the new DCEU, DC hardly is an established brand.

 

[Marvin]

Given how these bloggers talk year round about all these movies, that these same people write RT reviews for these movies and we're supposed to assume there is never any agenda is beyond me. Thus why any argument that starts or ends with 'but the 200 critics said..' is tiresome for me personally. Faraci and all of them are entitled to their opinion, that's all.

I'm not the biggest fan of this movie, rather this cut but I always suspected it would be a cult B classic in the long run. And kids would eat it up. Nice to see it finding an audience.

If a movie makes money, the haterdom says the audience is stupid for paying for the bad movie.

If a movie doesn't make money, the haterdom says the movie is bad because the audience isn't paying for the movie.

You should have heard some of the crap said about the china market before the 'good' movies started raking in 200plus mill over there.
The endless search for validation is endless..

That's great news! If we can reach $700M, I think that's a solid win.

Given what this opened with relative to MOS, I figured it would end somewhere relative to the formers finals. It may be a lesser name but it's got a better date. That second weekend drop will be most telling though.

Look, it boils down to this. If a movie has elements of fun..

One of the various lessons WB will likely take away from this is that if you want to override the vatican/critics, you need to appeal to the audience that wants nothing to do with the critics. Existential/cerebral/less then fun stuff won't do that.
Also getting a big name star and having your thing be multicultural helps. Next go round I expect a huge pandering to a certain international market.

 

[Greenlite]

bloggers/critics hate that its doing so well

look at this article from collider the writer was probably seething seeing suicide squad do so well

http://collider.com/suicide-squad-b...ersocial&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

I'm loving that these hater critics are having their ego shoved up their a** this time (not the legitimate ones that dislike the movie).

While fans/GA have been mixed on BvS, and SS has its issues, for the hater critics to destroy it critically like this (26 and 27% on RT? Come on), it's bound to backfire on them when they step on a mine where GA actually likes it.

 

[Micromind]

One of the various lessons WB will likely take away from this is that if you want to override the vatican/critics, you need to appeal to the audience that wants nothing to do with the critics.

Existential/cerebral/less then fun stuff won't do that.

Also getting a big name star and having your thing be multicultural helps. Next go round I expect a huge pandering to a certain international market.

If second week drop is not substantial, I can see a sequel getting green-light soon.

 

[Knight-Tale]

Well that's good news if it gets a release in China
That would actually make the film gross another 100m or more
WB would have to jump on it though to not lose momentum

 

[Micromind]

I'm loving that these hater critics are having their ego shoved up their a** this time (not the legitimate ones that dislike the movie).

While fans/GA have been mixed on BvS, and SS has its issues, for the hater critics to destroy it critically like this (26 and 27% on RT? Come on), it's bound to backfire on them when they step on a mine where GA actually likes it.

Yeah, the movie is not without it's flaws but it is highly entertaining, If WB can manage to make a movie that's fun and doesn't have editing and structural problems, it can make even more at Box Office, given the rich variety of characters they have in DC.

 

[Greenlite]

They (China) might cut Katana out entirely

Wife's from China and her "chinese twitter" is filled with patriotism and hate towards everything outside China, some of them are boycotting and protesting in front of KFCs and Japanese made products and Apple stores (later Apple said they don't have a store at that location...), while having McDonalds and driving away in Toyota cars...it's really confusing.

 

[Knight-Tale]

They can edit Katana's mask and dub her in chinese
boom
She doesn't have much of a role in the movie

 

[Pickleweasel]

The narrative is really kind of strange with this trying to twist everything into a disappointment. It's really strange.

Variety was just calling world war z a smash hit. Which earned 540 mil on a 190 mil budget. Ghostbusters is only losing 50-70 million and its budget was 144 and it'll probably only make 225 mil.

If the box office was the exact same but the rotten tomatoe score was in the 80s everyone would be talking about how great SS is doing at the box office.

But it doesn't have the RT score so everyone is saying WB spent 300 mil on advertising and the budget was more like 200 mil and then there's 30 mil for reshoots and they have to pay stars like Will Smith and Margot more money so they aren't even going to break even.

Never mind merchandise revenue. Never mind advertisement revenue Never mind dvd/ blue ray sales. Never mind soundtrack revenue. Never mind tv and streaming revenue

 

[Marvin]

^Some people need this thing to lose, for whatever reason.
That's a great point though, if all things were equal but the RT score was different, all of this stuff would be a huge sign of success, the opening alone.
Something about the Vatican(Critics).

They can edit Katana's mask and dub her in chinese
boom
She doesn't have much of a role in the movie

I'm finding this 'Katana' thing suspect. I mean 'The Wolverine' got a china release and it was all about japan, with a kanata like characters here and there.

Granted this one has a japan flag on her mask but still. Not like she does anything. That being said if she really is the issue one, it shouldn't be too hard to edit her out of the movie entirely(not even sure she's in the finale as is), she isn't dead shot. And two, someone should maybe lose their job for not seeing this possibility beforehand, seems like alot of money on the table and a roster that can rotate anyone in and out on a dime. Assault on arkham had none of her.
I think something like this could play pretty well over there, hopefully they figure it out.

Secondly, what the hell happened to that cool shot of Katana with the white eyes from the trailer? That was great. So curious what happened to alot of this movie.

 

[PacificBoy]

There's no flag waving stuff in Katana's portrayal so Chinese chauvinism doesn't kick in. Glad to hear there's still a chance SS will be released over there. Like I said before, might just be the movie to get the GA on board the DCEU.

 

[TheVileOne]

The narrative is really kind of strange with this trying to twist everything into a disappointment. It's really strange.

Variety was just calling world war z a smash hit. Which earned 540 mil on a 190 mil budget. Ghostbusters is only losing 50-70 million and its budget was 144 and it'll probably only make 225 mil.

If the box office was the exact same but the rotten tomatoe score was in the 80s everyone would be talking about how great SS is doing at the box office.

But it doesn't have the RT score so everyone is saying WB spent 300 mil on advertising and the budget was more like 200 mil and then there's 30 mil for reshoots and they have to pay stars like Will Smith and Margot more money so they aren't even going to break even.

Never mind merchandise revenue. Never mind advertisement revenue Never mind dvd/ blue ray sales. Never mind soundtrack revenue. Never mind tv and streaming revenue

No one said $300 million advertising.

No one said the film is losing money either. You are making things up. If one trade outlet said it need about $700 million to break even, a number it will very likely hit, it's not an unrealistic number. I already laid out exactly why this film probably needs about that much to break even.

When you figure a budget of $175 million, plus another $150 million for P&A, which is not unrealistic for this type of film, then you figure 50/50 BO split, which is lower for overseas receipts, then yeah it probably needs a high number like $700 million.

Ghostbusters was a big tentpole release. So it likely also had a big P&A budget. So when you figure that, how it won't even make much more in the US and it's not doing well overseas, it losing up to $70 million isn't unrealistic either.

 

[Greenlite]

They can edit Katana's mask and dub her in chinese
boom
She doesn't have much of a role in the movie

t: That's genius t:

Btw I don't think even with the current sentiment there their censorship team would cut out Katana They did have Pacific Rim where the female lead is Japanese who's robot rocked while the Chinese and Russian robots sucked big time, and Wolverine as mentioned above. They'll probably cut out all the bad stuff they do (Will assassinating someone at the start, Harley stealing LV ) to make these two more of a saint than minions (who got banned because they are bad)

 

[Roose Bolton]

The big thing with China is that Hugh Jackman is incredibly popular over there, so that probably helped with The Wolverine's success. Maybe WB can tap into that love of Aussies and put Boomerang front and centre in all the advertising

 

[JtheDreamer]

This movie will max out with near-MoS numbers. More than likely 650-675 million ish.

 

[LoganGambit87]

The big thing with China is that Hugh Jackman is incredibly popular over there, so that probably helped with The Wolverine's success. Maybe WB can tap into that love of Aussies and put Boomerang front and centre in all the advertising

the wolverine only made 40 million in china even antman made more in china

 

[Marvin]

WB needs to clear the China-approved cut and get it released before the movie loses momentum at the box office.

Perhpas, but even if it takes a few months...staggered releases seem to have their benefits. Or so I'm told.

 

[Roose Bolton]

the wolverine only made 40 million in china even antman made more in china

It made 40 million...as a film set in Japan with 95% of the cast being Japanese and speaking Japanese...in a country/market that notoriously hates the Japanese. That's nothing to balk at.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Gitesh Pandya says that the film will break $400M globally on Friday and near $500M by Sunday.

https://***********/GiteshPandya/status/763540167319846913

It shouldn't have any problem crossing $700M at this rate, even without China.

This is great news. t:

 

[combocaz]

Smells like success for SS.

 

[Greenlite]

The big thing with China is that Hugh Jackman is incredibly popular over there, so that probably helped with The Wolverine's success. Maybe WB can tap into that love of Aussies and put Boomerang front and centre in all the advertising

Funny you say that, it's true, you know what would tap into that market? Tom Cruise t:t:

Johnny Depp is still a big star there, how much translate into the CHN b.o though I don't know, since most of his movies are weird and dark.

But imagine how much $$$ Universal will get with their Cruise-Depp 1-2 punch, and when they team up.

Was Cruise rumored to play Flag before?

 

[Shadow Moses]

Just read the piece on collider.com about it breaking Tuesdays record. The hate in that report was so strong. I couldn't stop laughing at the fact that some critics are very upset that the movie is making money. Very childish and pathetic.

 

[Predator jp]

Just read the piece on collider.com about it breaking Tuesdays record. The hate in that report was so strong. I couldn't stop laughing at the fact that some critics are very upset that the movie is making money. Very childish and pathetic.

from Transformers to Twilight, it's nothing new in this industry.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Guys don't even click on anything VOX reports about SS, it's toxic. I was taken aback by their resentment and hatred for the movie, granted SS is no masterpiece and it has got flaws but the way they criticize it is totally unwarranted and pathetic.