Suicide Squad box office prediction - Part 1

[mclay18]

Speaking of which why not just avoid all that fuss and simply compare it to recent cbms that opened in july/aug. Seems like it's doing fine.

Yeah, guys, let's do that. The closest comparison is Guardians of the Galaxy, which opened on August 1, 2014.

And while "Squad" opened significantly higher than GOTG ($39M more), some of it can be chalked up to ticket price inflation between 2014 and 2016. There isn't much difference in the drop between the first Mondays for both. GOTG made $11.7M (down 54% from Sunday), while SS made $13M (down 56.5%).

Gitesh Pandya says that SS is headed for a domestic first week haul of $175M, compared to GOTG's $134M. If that predictions holds for SS, subtract the o.w. number from the Mon-Thursday total and there's only $1M difference between them (SS has a $41M haul, GOTG has $40M). And if the higher end predictions for SS's second weekend hold, 60% signifies a $53.6M haul. GOTG's second weekend drop is 55% ($42M), due to TMNT cutting into its haul, which isn't too far off from SS's 60% drop.

The third or fourth weekend is probably when SS plummets, due to kids going back to school. Or it could hold better, time will tell.

 

[Pickleweasel]

A lot of theater chains now have ticket and concession promotions every Tuesday to drum up foot traffic during the week; mostly ticket discounts and concessions, so there's usually a bump from the first Monday. When I worked at Carmike, they had a Tuesday special where small popcorn and small drink were $2 apiece. And now they have a $5 all day ticket special as well. And the luxury theater I work now at has a Terrific Tuesday $8 ticket special, as well as a $7 medium drink/popcorn combo.

But whenever a big holiday falls on a Tuesday, business is even better than usual due to those promotions. Especially if it's Christmas or Valentine's Day...

Any movie is basically a sure thing to get a Tuesday boost after it's been out a week. Im saying movies first Tuesday isn't a sure thing. Not sure why you typed all this...

 

[SuperAl]

very good Tuesday, 3mil more than GOTG.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Looks like $14 million, maybe as high as $14.4 million so a little Discount Tuesday bump. Good number by any measure. $300 million+ domestic getting closer and closer to locked.

 

[idiot09]

So where are all the naysayers who were saying SS would tank in the BO due to negative reviews?Its still early days but all signs have been positive upto now.These tuesday numbers are great.I'm not a huge fan of the movie,but it seems like WOM is good for this movie.And if it indeeds makes profitable numbers for WB at the end,then that would be much needed win for WB and kick in the balls for the critics.

 

[Jekecy]

I'm glad it seems to be doing well. But honestly I just want the sequel secured so they have another shot with this cast and a good script to support them.

I couldn't care less if Ayer returned at this point. If this is the type of direction/writing we're to expect, I have to pass. Thanks for the cast, but time to move on.

 

[The Joker]

So where are all the naysayers who were saying SS would tank in the BO due to negative reviews?

Oh you're counting your chickens aren't you. BvS had a strong start off in its first week with early positive signs then dropped like a lead balloon.

You're crowing way too soon when the movie has not even been out a week.

 

[StormC]

So where are all the naysayers who were saying SS would tank in the BO due to negative reviews?Its still early days but all signs have been positive upto now.These tuesday numbers are great.I'm not a huge fan of the movie,but it seems like WOM is good for this movie.And if it indeeds makes profitable numbers for WB at the end,then that would be much needed win for WB and kick in the balls for the critics.

So...critics should be spited for not liking it?

 

[Micromind]

So...critics should be spited for not liking it?

Critics should not be counted as naysayers ?

 

[Zero_Effect]

Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya

$14.3M TUE for #SuicideSquad, up good 9% from MON. Better than AUG hits Guardians (+2%) & BourneUltimatum (-18%). Plus it faces #Olympics.

 

[idiot09]

So...critics should be spited for not liking it?

Not at all.But it would indicate there is a major disconnect between the critics and the audiences regarding this movie.And going on the way some critics have about this movie,its not just dislike,but utter hate.Just look at this.

http://io9.gizmodo.com/suicide-squad-sets-box-office-record-because-we-dont-de-1784950994

They are not just criticising the movie,they are attacking the fans that like this movie by saying they are the reason why good movies are not made.I mean what?

And then there's those media clickbaiting people who constantly are calling it the "Donald Trump" of comic book movies.

I mean its one thing to voice your opinion about this movie.I didnt find it to be a great movie either.Its perfectly okay for the critics to not like this movie.I mean there are countless articles just pounding on the hate,actively trying for days to dissuade people from watching the movie and make up their minds,and now that the movie is breaking records financially the narrative is,its no longer "this movie is bad" ,its the fans fault.The audience doesnt know the difference between "quality" and "crap".

Now that the movie is doing well in the box office its a slap to the face of those clickbaiting,"5 articles a day" bashing SS people who just enjoyed piling on the hate for this movie.

/rant

 

[idiot09]

Oh you're counting your chickens aren't you. BvS had a strong start off in its first week with early positive signs then dropped like a lead balloon.

You're crowing way too soon when the movie has not even been out a week.

I did mention "this are still early days but all signs have been positive till now".This tuesday has been amazing,it has beat BvS,Civil War and GOTG for tuesday numbers.Its even an increase from its monday.It is doing well NOW.Far better than assuming early on how this movie will fail just because BvS did,when its clear,they are NOT THE same movie.

 

[The Joker]

I did mention "this are still early days but all signs have been positive till now".This tuesday has been amazing,it has beat BvS,Civil War and GOTG for tuesday numbers.Its even an increase from its monday.It is doing well NOW.Far better than assuming early on how this movie will fail just because BvS did,when its clear,they are NOT THE same movie.

http://www.cinemablend.com/new/Batman-V-Superman-Breaking-Box-Office-Records-Get-Details-120887.html

http://movieweb.com/batman-v-superman-thursday-night-previews-box-office/

http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/27/media/batman-v-superman-box-office-opening-weekend/

http://deadline.com/2016/03/batman-v-superman-monday-box-office-record-1201727751/

Heard this all before in BvS' first week. Breaking records, beating Marvel movies etc. Deja vu right down to WB saying they were happy with the opening numbers.

 

[Zero_Effect]

http://www.cinemablend.com/new/Batman-V-Superman-Breaking-Box-Office-Records-Get-Details-120887.html

http://movieweb.com/batman-v-superman-thursday-night-previews-box-office/

http://deadline.com/2016/03/batman-v-superman-monday-box-office-record-1201727751/

Yadda yadda yadda. Heard this all before in BvS' first week. Deja vu right down to WB saying they were happy with the opening numbers.

BvS - first Tuesday: -19%

SS - first Tuesday: +9%

 

[The Joker]

BvS - first Tuesday: -19%

SS - first Tuesday: +9%

Yeah so?

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Let's wait for the 2nd weekend numbers to roll in and then we'll have a clear idea whether SS is going to be a big financial success or not. Opening week numbers were always going to huge and record breaking for the month of August but the litmus test will be next week.

I hope it does well so that we get a sequel to SS, that's all I'm hoping for right now.

 

[Knight-Tale]

hmmm
Even if you account for the absolute low end with BvS' drops week 2 at 69% then you are still seeing a movie that made 40m+ and more than likely passing 300m by week 4 since competition is kinda weak right now

You really shouldn't be comparing this to BvS box office anyway
SS is trending positively now and tracking higher than GOTG
Only knock against Suicide Squad so far is the lack of china release and no mexico theater chain.

 

[Musashi]

http://www.cinemablend.com/new/Batman-V-Superman-Breaking-Box-Office-Records-Get-Details-120887.html

http://movieweb.com/batman-v-superman-thursday-night-previews-box-office/

http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/27/media/batman-v-superman-box-office-opening-weekend/

http://deadline.com/2016/03/batman-v-superman-monday-box-office-record-1201727751/

Yadda yadda yadda. Heard this all before in BvS' first week. Deja vu right down to WB saying they were happy with the opening numbers.

Well, they must be happy with something, if they're still doing these movies and have plans for more. Maybe people who comment on how much money a movie makes just don't know the full story.

 

[The Joker]

Well, they must be happy with something, if they're still doing these movies and have plans for more. Maybe people who comment on how much money a movie makes just don't know the full story.

They had already gone into production for their movies before BvS was even released. JL and Wonder Woman were already under way. Suicide Squad was completed.

 

[Predator jp]

They are not just criticising the movie,they are attacking the fans that like this movie by saying they are the reason why good movies are not made.I mean what?

people say the same thing about Transformers so it's nothing new.
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[ArmsHeldOut]

I'm glad it seems to be doing well. But honestly I just want the sequel secured so they have another shot with this cast and a good script to support them.

I couldn't care less if Ayer returned at this point. If this is the type of direction/writing we're to expect, I have to pass. Thanks for the cast, but time to move on.

Exactly this.

 

[ManWithNoName18]

Interesting BVS dropped around 69% from 166 for a 51 million week 2
If SS drops around 62% or lower it will match or even beat BVS week 2

 

[idiot09]

people say the same thing about Transformers so it's nothing new.
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I know man,its just so condescending.I love the hangover series,and the campy jim carrey comedies,and I dont really care if the critics dont like it,I derive entertainment from it.I dont like tons of stuff that the critics and GA likes eg: Star Trek series,but I am not gonna go around insulting the people who like it.Its basic human decency,which is sometimes lost over the internet.

 

[Musashi]

They had already gone into production for their movies before BvS was even released. JL and Wonder Woman were already under way. Suicide Squad was completed.

They have interrupted productions before. Why announce more movies within the universe if they're so unhappy?

I think they're probably making a very fat profit off these movies, and that's why they're so commited with this universe. These movies don't need to break all sorts of records in order to be justified. They need to make a decent profit for the studio.

I know those who don't like the movies want to propagate the idea that this is all a big failure and the studio is super unhappy, but...i'm just not seeing it.

 

[Ozbridge]

BvS - first Tuesday: -19%

SS - first Tuesday: +9%

Well BvS first Monday was Easter holiday so of course it dropped from Monday to Tuesday.

Btw I think the new MoS sequel indicates that WB is AT LEAST happy with MoS BO/ leg and the DCEU will surely go on.