Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 1

[KangConquers]

http://www.slashfilm.com/early-buzz-screening-green-lantern-earns-positive-praise/

There were also reports like this though:

http://movies.cosmicbooknews.com/content/green-lantern-movie-troubled-flop-according-insiders

 

[Spideyfan93]

I remember seeing that and everyone was quick to dismiss it and many went ahead to bash the guy.

Guess the agent was right in ways.

 

[Electrix]

Green Lantern's start landed behind X-Men: First Class's $55.1 million and Thor's $65.7 million, and its Friday-to-Saturday drop of 22 percent was steeper than those movies' eight percent. The gross was also less than The Incredible Hulk and the two Fantastic Four movies, and the attendance disparity was only greater. Green Lantern's estimated attendance was even lower than Daredevil and Ghost Rider.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3190&p=.htm

 

[KangConquers]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3190&p=.htm

It's quite possible that Green Lantern might not beat Ghost Rider's domestic total. I see it dropping to 20 M next weekend and about 7 Million the weekend after.

GL may very well be out of theaters by the end of July.

 

[Drizzle]

I just realized that Green Lantern made even less on its opening weekend than DC's last superhero film (Watchmen), and that had much less of a marketing push, came out in March and had an R rating. I feel really bad for DC right now. At this rate, they're never going to be able to compete with Marvel's cinematic universe.

Wel, Chas you were right. Out of the four comic book movies being released, at least one of them had to be a rotton apple of the bunch. And GL was one of them. Hopefully Cap remedies these feelings.

I feel like Cap is going to do much better than GL, both financially and (hopefully) critically.

 

[chaseter]

It's about 350 million including marketing. But then you have to figure in giving the cinemas a cut, international distribution etc.

It probably needs to make at least 400 million WW just to break even.

Incorrect. All the profits from the box office do not go to the studio. It needs to make about 800 million to break even. That is the general rule of thumb. A film must make double it's cost to be seen as profitable in theaters.

 

[lime]

Incorrect. All the profits from the box office do not go to the studio. It needs to make about 800 million to break even. That is the general rule of thumb. A film must make double it's cost to be seen as profitable in theaters.

Yeah, that's true. POTC 4 had 250 millions budget and it was in profit when it hit 500.

Lantern must make 400 WW to have normal winnings. But I doubt it.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

DC's last superhero film (Watchmen), and that had much less of a marketing push

It had its trailer attached to TDK. What more marketing do you need?

 

[Drizzle]

It had its trailer attached to TDK. What more marketing do you need?

One trailer alone doesn't sell a movie to everyone, even if it was attached to the highest grossing superhero film of all time. Watchmen didn't have cross promotions with Subway, Frito Lay and Reese's Peanut Butter cups like GL.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

One trailer alone doesn't sell a movie to everyone, even if it was attached to the highest grossing superhero film of all time.

Exactly. WB attached trailers for Watchmen, Terminator: Salvation and Body of Lies in front of The Dark Knight. And it didn't matter whatsoever to their (lack of) box office.

 

[Bunker]

Nice to see Super 8 doing well.

 

[The Morningstar]

One trailer alone doesn't sell a movie to everyone, even if it was attached to the highest grossing superhero film of all time. Watchmen didn't have cross promotions with Subway, Frito Lay and Reese's Peanut Butter cups like GL.

It also didn't have Officially Licensed Watchmen colostomy bags either. Don't ever forget the colostomy bags. Ever.

 

[Doctor Jones]

I still want my Comedian smiley face shaped Reeses peanut butter cup.

 

[jmc]

Wow, Super 8 has legs, fantastic!

 

[JP]

That sounds saucy!

 

[Spider-Fan]

This all depends on cap having the quality and word of mouth you predict it's going to have. Outside of a well cut trailer I'm curious where this is coming from?

Test screenings.

 

[Marvin]

Wow, Super 8 has legs, fantastic!

If only every film could face one of the worst reviewed films of the decade in it's second weekend.

 

[TheComicbookKid]

I feel like Cap is going to do much better than GL, both financially and (hopefully) critically.

Yeah but whatever Cap does make up for domestically it will probably lose internationally.

 

[Drizzle]

If only every film could face one of the worst reviewed films of the decade in it's second weekend.

The decade? Green Lantern isn't even the worst reviewed film of this year.

Yeah but whatever Cap does make up for domestically it will probably lose internationally.

True. I think it'll be the opposite of Thor and pull in much more money domestically than internationally.

 

[Marvin]

The decade? Green Lantern isn't even the worst reviewed film of this year.

"One of"

as in one of the many worst reviewed films of the decade. I can only assume the average is 50%
I think a 25% would classify, i could be wrong.

 

[flickchick85]

Good for Super 8! I'm a little surprised GL landed even lower than my $55-60m prediction with both the 3D and their insane marketing push. I was visiting NYC this weekend, and that movie was completely inescapable there.

I think y'all are underestimating Cap's overseas potential. It's set in WWII. Considering Hollywood WWII flicks usually do gangbusters overseas, I think that (and the Avengers hype) may counterbalance the "America" problem internationally fairly well.

 

[The Morningstar]

It's not just the whole "America" thing. It's the fact that Harry Potter is a beast internationally.

 

[flickchick85]

True, I wasn't remotely expecting it to be #1 overseas, but I feel like there's room for both.

 

[The Morningstar]

Yea. I said before, it could be the whole Sherlock Holmes/Avatar thing. Holmes made brilliant money, but it never really got that much notice because it was always behind Avatar.

Hopefully, the same thing happens with Cap.

 

[jmc]

Good for Super 8! I'm a little surprised GL landed even lower than my $55-60m prediction with both the 3D and their insane marketing push. I was visiting NYC this weekend, and that movie was completely inescapable there.

I think y'all are underestimating Cap's overseas potential. It's set in WWII. Considering Hollywood WWII flicks usually do gangbusters overseas, I think that (and the Avengers hype) may counterbalance the ''America'' problem internationally fairly well.

I can tell you as an outsider Cap is gonna have to make the majority of it's cash locally. Fair or not politics will play a part.