Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 1

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Looking at the figures right now for the 3 superhero movies I see Thor barely clawing it's way past 440 Million (disappointing, as 450-500 Million was once considered a sure thing) and X-Men stopping in the range of 340-350 Million.

Thor's # aren't disappointing. It's a good result for a movie that cost around $225-250 (150 plus marketing) to make.

 

[Doctor Jones]

Thor is a success. Plain and simple. It didn't do IM numbers but that wasn't expected. It passed its budget and broke even.

 

[kedrell]

Thor did more than break even. It turned a significant profit for Marvel. It's at $435M WW right now with at least another $5M domestic in the tank and has yet to open in Japan where it'll probably make at least another $5M(which would put it at $445M) and I can see risiduals from the rest of the OS markets adding another $5M by the end of it's run for a $450M finish. Even if you take away the extra $ from 3-D and just went by ticket sales it still will have done around $400M WW. And at $300M WW it was basically at the break-even point.

 

[Bruce Malone]

The funny thing is GL isn't doing anything special in the few overseas markets it's been released in.

Also that drop for Super 8 is good but Paramount is overestimating it again. Still it will come under 50% and that has to be seen as a success in this day and age. I'm thinking more like 19.5 to 20.5mil for the actual. Which isn't 40% but still a good drop and here comes a 100+mil. Here comes another JJ. Abrams hit after Star Trek.

As for GL. I was way wrong with my 68mil prediction, there are no two ways about. The opening is a failure of the highest order because the weekend multiplier shows that the movie is frontloaded and the word of mouth is mixed at best. I wouldn't be suprised with a Hulk style drop in it's second weekend.

I feel bad for Ryan Reynolds because eventhough this dud wasn't his fault (blame the 800 writers and uninterested director) he will get most of the blame despite being the best thing about the film.

First Class had another 50% drop and needed something in the early to mid 40's to make up for last weekend. It's still running behind X-Men and it's third weekend is actually a little worse than X-Men's. It's lucky those international numbers are swell because it would totally be boned without them. It would have been nice for such a good flick to have good legs but good legs never seem to happen to X-Men films so this isn't a surprise.

I find it funny that BridesMaids is going to outdo this huge overhyped 150+mil movies like Green Lantern and First Class. Probably. The little movie that could.

Why exactly did you predict 68 mil in the 1st place? Everything it had coming in reviews, buzz etc. was way worse than what thor had so why did you assume it would debut with higher #'s?

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

Thor had the advantage of opening in the first week of May...

If Green Lantern and Thor swapped release dates, things may have been slightly different.

I'm really curious for how Captain America does... the marketing has completely passed me by.

 

[Marvin]

Thor had the advantage of opening in the first week of May...

If Green Lantern and Thor swapped release dates, things may have been slightly different.

I'm really curious for how Captain America does... the marketing has completely passed me by.

Hard to say what would happen exactly, but things definitely would be different.

 

[Marvin]

this is funny, no one is spared...except maybe thor.

http://www.theshiznit.co.uk/feature/if-this-summers-movie-posters-told-the-truth.php

 

[JP]

The tree of life one is hilarious!

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

The Cars 2 one is so true

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

 

[Marvin]

Super 8 and Mel Gibson made me lol.

 

[Doctor Jones]

Well Rango pretty much should take home a best animated feature Oscar.

 

[Drizzle]

I really wish Dreamworks had saved How To Train Your Dragon for this year. It would have had that Oscar in the bag if it were competing against Cars 2, which isn't getting all that positive buzz.

 

[flickchick85]

Yeah, Cars 2 is the first Pixar movie EVER that I'm not looking forward to, which for some reason makes me kinda sad.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I really wish Dreamworks had saved How To Train Your Dragon for this year. It would have had that Oscar in the bag if it were competing against Cars 2, which isn't getting all that positive buzz.

I was thinking the same thing a few weeks ago. It's a shame it came it the same year of not only a film, but an animation event in Toy Story 3.

Yeah, Cars 2 is the first Pixar movie EVER that I'm not looking forward to, which for some reason makes me kinda sad.

Same here. Could it, dare I say, be the first bad Pixar movie?

*gasps happen nationwide*

 

[Hush]

Cars 2 looks like crap.

 

[Tron Bonne]

Same here. Could it, dare I say, be the first bad Pixar movie?

*gasps happen nationwide*

But...wasn't that Cars?

 

[kedrell]

But...wasn't that Cars?

Cars is the bad 'for a Pixar movie' one, but it's still at 74% and a 6.9/10 on RT. Still fresh. Cars 2 at this point is actually in rotten territory(a first for Pixar) at 59% and a 5.6/10.

And A Bug's Life is their weakest box office performer, just to throw that in there.

 

[Spideyfan93]

The Tree of Life= Oscar Oscar Oscar Oscar Oscar Oscar Oscar Oscar


LMAO!

 

[KangConquers]

I never said Thor was a disappointment in the sense of not making it's money back, I just personally hoped for 180 domestic and 270 foreign. That looks unlikely now.

 

[kedrell]

^I think it's gonna do both of those. You may be forgetting that it's still gonna be in theatrical release for another 40+ days. And it hasn't opened in Japan yet(7/2/2011). It can make up the $14.5M left to $450M WW. It only has less than $3.75M left to get to $180M domestic.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I never said Thor was a disappointment in the sense of not making it's money back, I just personally hoped for 180 domestic and 270 foreign. That looks unlikely now.

It can still do both of those and it's very close. It still has to open in Japan and it's at 176 million now.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

But...wasn't that Cars?

Cars is a good movie. If it was Dreamworks it wouldn't receive half as much as hate as it has now. It's just that it's not up to the Pixar standard that we're used to seeing.

 

[Tron Bonne]

Oh, well, I haven't seen it. I just never hear anything good about it. I always figured it was kind of the opposite; it'd be disliked even more if not for the Pixar name.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

The problem with Cars is that it wasn't great, and it doesn't have the depth of any of the other Pixar films.