Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 1

[terry78]

I will even have your first client lined up:

Spoiler

okay I'm done.

You ever see someone that just LOOKS like they stink?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

He'll give you one of his WoW accounts

lol

You ever see someone that just LOOKS like they stink?

Yes I have actually.

 

[rashad]

Box Office: 'Transformers: Dark of the Moon' Earns $13.5 Million From Tuesday Night Showings
12:39 PM 6/29/2011 by Pamela McClintock


The Paramount three-quel made $5.5 million in special pre-midnight 3D sneaks.

Paramount's Transformers: Dark of the Moon grossed $13.5 million special 3D and midnight shows Tuesday night.

In a novel marketing move, Paramount hosted sneaks Tuesday evening in 2,700 3D theaters as a way to pump up 3D attendance.

That was followed by midnight shows in both regular and 3D theaters. All told, 70% of the $13.5 million came from 3D locations, including $1.4 million from 146 Imax theaters.

The sneaks earned $5.5 million, while midnight grosses were $8 million.
It's a strong start for Michael Bay's three-quel, which returns Shia LaBeouf in the title role, even if Tuesday’s business was behind the second Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, which grossed $16 million in midnight shows.

Paramount is prepared for the three-quel to come in behind Revenge of the Fallen, considering the depressed domestic marketplace. Revenge of the Fallen opened to roughly $200 million in its first five days; Paramount expects Dark of the Moon to gross $155 million to $165 million through July 4th.

Dark of the Moon came in well ahead of the first Transformers, which grossed $8.8 million in Tuesday evening and midnight shows. And it beat the $4.7 million earned by Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides in midnight shows earlier this summer. However, Warner Bros.' The Hangover Part II remains the top pic of 2011 in terms of midnight shows, earning $10.4 million.

Dark of the Moon has enormous earning potential overseas, considering the booming market for Hollywood tentpoles, and 3D event pics in particular. On Stranger Tides grossed $260.4 million in its first five days at the international box office.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/transformers-dark-moon-rakes-135-206873

 

[JP]

Disgusting.

 

[DACrowe]

I like how generally most people hated TF2 and it got across the board bad reviews from critics and GA alike. Yet they still line up to see another one (that looks almost identical in previews) in mass. It really makes no sense.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Revenge of the Fallen pulled in $16 million on its midnight earnings. Dark of the Moon did $13.5 million total (the 9 PM and midnight screenings plus the 3D bump).

That's...actually not good all things considered.

 

[danoyse]

I saw a screening of the extended version of Return of the King last night (which was, btw, sold out ), and the Transformers shows were in full swing by the time we left. Do you know how annoying it is to hear nothing but Bay-splosions after spending the last 4 hours watching something as amazing as ROTK?

 

[JP]

A **** ton of money is a **** ton of money no matter how you slice it. Meh.

 

[A Necessary Evil]

Transformers 3 was a massive improvement over revenge of the crap

 

[TheIncredibleSk]

I dont think I will ever watch a LOTR movie. They look so boring.

 

[jmc]

Don't knock it til you've tried it.

 

[Doctor Jones]

I dont think I will ever watch a LOTR movie. They look so boring.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Revenge of the Fallen pulled in $16 million on its midnight earnings. Dark of the Moon did $13.5 million total (the 9 PM and midnight screenings plus the 3D bump).

That's...actually not good all things considered.

After what the second movie did and the fact that this movie had 3D ticket prices helping it those numbers aren't great. They aren't disasterous or anything but it's clear that this movie isn't going to do Revenge of the Fallen numbers. I always thought it would overseas but domestically, that aint happening. It could have if Revenge of the Fallen hadn't scared some away with it's general awfulness.

 

[Doctor Jones]

This movie isn't good either. But I don't know how WOM could be.

 

[jmc]

Another bad Bay movie. What a shock!

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

This movie isn't good either. But I don't know how WOM could be.

I won't be figuring out how good or bad Dark of the Moon is anytime soon. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me, fool me 3 times and I'm an A-hole. Those are my feelings on that incredibly horrifically awful so-called film series. The movie sounds almost as awful as Revenge of the Fallen, I don't think it's going to have good word of mouth.

Another bad Bay movie. What a shock!

Exactly. I hate Bay with a white hot passion. He's probably the worst filmmaker working, defnately in the top two.

Still the movie is going to make a s**tload I'm just glad that it's looking to make less than the last film.

You know what I'm tired of? People saying that this and that movie underperforming proves that people just don't want to go to the movies in the U.S. Thats just not true. Each filmed that failed or underperformed had a perfect reason why they did. This summer/year just doesn't have that strong of a line up. I mean the movies are still making money but none of the film are busting open the boxoffice for perfectly good reasons. The international market may stand for these english speaking bad films but some people in the states have had their fill of them. Not enough people but some.

 

[TheIncredibleSk]

It is it me but have none of the big movies released this year done great is US?

 

[danoyse]

I dont think I will ever watch a LOTR movie. They look so boring.

Except that they're not.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It is it me but have none of the big movies released this year done great is US?

This year has too many movies than might be good but that most just don't want to see.

People overseas like looking at flashing lights even more than we do and never punish franchises for bad installments so I expect DOTM to make more than ROTF overseas. Don't get me wrong we in the U.S still like our s**t in droves but we punish our franchises ever so slightly when one blows.

I hope this warmed over garbage doesn't hit 50mil today. It's possible that it does but I hope it's more like 40mil. Thats still entirely too much money for this trashy ass franchise.

 

[Marvin]

Revenge of the Fallen pulled in $16 million on its midnight earnings. Dark of the Moon did $13.5 million total (the 9 PM and midnight screenings plus the 3D bump).

That's...actually not good all things considered.

considering they only opened DOTM moon in in 3D and Imax screens last night, where as ROTF they simply opened in all screens possible, I'd say it did as well as could be expected.

2,700 some ought screens vs 4,234 doesn't seem like the most logical comparison, but that's me. In the end all that counts in the final number so who's to say.

Exactly. I hate Bay with a white hot passion. He's probably the worst filmmaker working, defnately in the top two.

Still the movie is going to make a s**tload I'm just glad that it's looking to make less than the last film.

No, he's just one of the more successful and because of that we tend to overlook the truly horrible directors out there.

Tommy Wiseau has done some interesting work, but who cares right.

I hope this warmed over garbage doesn't hit 50mil today. It's possible that it does but I hope it's more like 40mil. Thats still entirely too much money for this trashy ass franchise.

It will make what it deserves to make...unless you're implying the game is rigged somehow.

 

[Hunter Rider]

I love Bay, he's my go to guy when I want un-PC, brash, swagger filled non stop glorified action porn ! t:

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Marvin, where on earth did I imply that the game is rigged? People like horrible ass movies so ofcourse it will make far more money than it deserves. I like dumb fun movies just as much as the next person but these movies aren't even fun, they are just dumb completely uninteresting tripe.

Don't worry they will still make more of these films and you and the people who enjoy them will still get to see them and I'll still grumble about how horrible they are.

*lion king*the circle of liiiife*lion king*

No offense (because it's not important) but most people don't know s**t about the boxoffice even when they say they do so I'm not even going to argue with you about this movie's numbers. I'll just say that we'll see what this movie does today but I seriously doubt it's going to be that 60mil that the second one did. If it does, I will be wrong.

 

[TheIncredibleSk]

i love bay, he's my go to guy when i want un-pc, brash, swagger filled non stop glorified action porn ! t:

qft

 

[Marvin]

Marvin, where on earth did I imply that the game is rigged? People like horrible ass movies so ofcourse it will make far more money than it deserves. I like dumb fun movies just as much as the next person but these movies aren't even fun, they are just dumb completely uninteresting tripe.

Don't worry they will still make more of these films and you and the people who enjoy them will still get to see them and I'll still grumble about how horrible they are.

*lion king*the circle of liiiife*lion king*

you implied that it will make more than it deserves, I just don't understand the concept. people aren't paying for Lawrence of Arabia, sitting, watching it, enjoying it and then finding out their money went to Transformers. People wanna see a movie and they pay for it. If it's "bad" or they don't like it, it got them to the theater so on it's own (franchise) merits..unless I'm mistaken.

The money it makes will be as result of the 4000 people that worked to produce and promote it. Like I said, unless you think it's rigged or something.

or unless you're talking about some moral code pertaining to people like a movie you don't...

No offense (because it's not important) but most people don't know s**t about the boxoffice even when they say they do so I'm not even going to argue with you about this movie's numbers. I'll just say that we'll see what this movie does today but I seriously doubt it's going to be that 60mil that the second one did. If it does, I will be wrong.

It will make as much as it deserves
I simply pointed out what I saw to be the fallacy in jamie's comparison, that's all.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Terrible movies don't "deserve" to make alot of money. They just do sometimes and I accept that, I don't like it but I accept it.

And nowhere do I imply that the game is rigged as I know that people like watching garbage all the time. You implying that I did say the game is rigged came out of nowhere. You don't have to like my opinion of this franchise and I don't have to like yours.

As I said, don't worry more Transformers movies are going to be made.

People are paying for a bad movie, they are paying for bad movies and thats their right but they have no right to complain about Hollywood's output when they do. A movie can be both fun and actually decent. These films aren't even decent, they are completely inept in every real way. And they aren't even entertaining. Stop using that silly "Lawrence of Arabia" or Godfather or insert classic drama here arguement. I'm expecting a decent freakin movie and so far the Transformers franchise has had nothing but bad films.

First film: Bad to mediocre

Second film: Terrible in every way, one of the worst ever made

Third film: I assume bad because it has the same director of the first two bad movies and the worst screenwriter in the biz.

Forget great, I'm just looking for mildly competent.