Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 1

[Spider-Fan]

Here's some reality about Green Lantern, for those claiming that it "bombed":

10-day total = Worldwide: $118,711,000
Budget: $200 million

In 10 days, it's made more than half its budget. That's not bad at all. In another month, I'd say it breaks even. No money lost on WB's part. Just no profit.

Granted, I don't know how merchandising and marketing works, but I assume that merchandising is making a decent amount of money too.

So... it's not a bomb, technically.

That doesn't include marketing costs. That is where the 300 mil figure comes from.

Explain this then, ladies:

http://www.totalfilm.com/news/green-lantern-2-could-still-be-a-possibility



Here's something that most comic book geeks don't understand:

1. Just because you didn't like something, doesn't mean it's bad.

2. Just because you didn't like something, doesn't mean other people didn't either.

3. Critics are rarely, if ever, right.

4. People are usually quick to jump on reviews that are in favor of the movie... if they liked it. They're then quick to jump on reviews that are not in favor of the movie if they didn't like it. This is the Bandwagon Effect, which 90% of people on this website love.

5. It's making enough money, apparently. And apparently it's doing pretty well with merchandising.

6. This movie was ****ing awesome, and I want a sequel.

7. Though you might not care about someone else's opinion (like mine, for example), the bigger thing to understand is that someone like me doesn't give a crap about your opinion either. We're both equal in the anonymous world of the Internet. Arguing is silly. Nobody can win.

8. Above all, why wouldn't you support the success of a superhero movie? Isn't that why we're all here, on this site? Weren't we, in a perfect world, supposed to be a community?

Superman Returns had a sequel announced years ago. Just because a studio says a sequel is being made doesn't mean it will. GL is still in theaters. They're trying to give it more good press and squeeze out every dollar. Until that sequel is filming, nothing is guaranteed.

 

[JP]

Daw, Rocketman...

 

[chaseter]

It's bombing relative to it's budget, so they might still greenlight a Deadpool movie with a budget of 80-100million.

Deadpool is a c-list hero to the GA's eyes and is extremely niche to boot. The GA won't go see a movie where a character breaks the fourth wall and does over the top cheese. It already has an uphill battle with that. Then you look at Ryan Reynold's starring roles in superhero movies and see how awful that record is. I would bet you that we don't see a Deadpool movie made and if it is happening, it won't be any time soon. Wolverine comes out next then I bet we see First Class 2 and possibly X4. So that is possibly 9 years down the road before I would bet we ever see a Deadpool movie and I really don't think we ever will.

 

[DACrowe]

Explain this then, ladies:

http://www.totalfilm.com/news/green-lantern-2-could-still-be-a-possibility



Here's something that most comic book geeks don't understand:

1. Just because you didn't like something, doesn't mean it's bad.

2. Just because you didn't like something, doesn't mean other people didn't either.

3. Critics are rarely, if ever, right.

4. People are usually quick to jump on reviews that are in favor of the movie... if they liked it. They're then quick to jump on reviews that are not in favor of the movie if they didn't like it. This is the Bandwagon Effect, which 90% of people on this website love.

5. It's making enough money, apparently. And apparently it's doing pretty well with merchandising.

6. This movie was ****ing awesome, and I want a sequel.

7. Though you might not care about someone else's opinion (like mine, for example), the bigger thing to understand is that someone like me doesn't give a crap about your opinion either. We're both equal in the anonymous world of the Internet. Arguing is silly. Nobody can win.

8. Above all, why wouldn't you support the success of a superhero movie? Isn't that why we're all here, on this site? Weren't we, in a perfect world, supposed to be a community?

I love how you begin by saying not everyone agrees with your opinion but then say the movie is getting a sequel because you thought it was "****ing awesome."

If opinions matter little to nothing on the Internet, then I guess critics aren't as wrong as you suggest, because at least they get paid to publish their opinions and many read them.

P.S. GL isn't getting a sequel because a majority of people didn't like it. It opened soft and dropped hard in its second week because it has awful, negative word of mouth. It is even doing bad overseas. You'll likely get your GL2 around the same time a sequel to Superman Returns, Ang Lee's Hulk, Daredevil 2, Catwoman 2 and Fantastic Four 3 roll around.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I love how you begin by saying not everyone agrees with your opinion but then say the movie is getting a sequel because you thought it was "****ing awesome."

If opinions matter little to nothing on the Internet, then I guess critics aren't as wrong as you suggest, because at least they get paid to publish their opinions and many read them.

P.S. GL isn't getting a sequel because a majority of people didn't like it. It opened soft and dropped hard in its second week because it has awful, negative word of mouth. It is even doing bad overseas. You'll likely get your GL2 around the same time a sequel to Superman Returns, Ang Lee's Hulk, Daredevil 2, Catwoman 2 and Fantastic Four 3 roll around.

All of these have been in production for like...4-9 years. THEY SHALL BE EPIC!!!

 

[Bubonic]

 

[Tacit Ronin]

1. Just because you didn't like something, doesn't mean it's bad.

Yes, yes it is. To that person, which matters the most.

Critics are rarely, if ever, right.

Critics usually agree with the consensus.

 

[kedrell]

As in hopefully it becomes more of a possibility to being made?

If not, I hope studios aren't looking at Reynolds. People still love him and he isn't to blame for this film. Deadpool could go either way with the GA though.

In order to be successful IMO, a Deadpool movie would need to be very hard PG-13(if not rated R) and have a budget not much more than $60M. It could make Blade numbers, but that's about it.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

I wanna see a low budgeted (relatively) hard R Deadpool flick. Could garner a nice niche audience.

 

[kedrell]

Just as long as they don't pull a Punisher'04 and make the budget so low that the film suffers because of it.

 

[chaseter]

I wanna see a low budgeted (relatively) hard R Deadpool flick. Could garner a nice niche audience.

I do too but that film probably would be lucky to even make $40-$50 million domestic. Studios aren't too trigger happy to green light R rated superhero flicks. They aren't sure fire money makers.

If they make a Deadpool movie...the budget would have to be around $30-40 million I think. It would in no way be something like $80 million. I think Kick Ass would be an apt example for a comparison on what could work.

 

[kedrell]

I do too but that film probably would be lucky to even make $40-$50 million domestic. Studios aren't too trigger happy to green light R rated superhero flicks. They aren't sure fire money makers.

If they make a Deadpool movie...the budget would have to be around $30-40 million I think. It would in no way be something like $80 million. I think Kick Ass would be an apt example for a comparison on what could work.

Kick Ass was all over the place in it's marketing. That's why it didn't do great numbers. When it comes to R-rated superhero flicks, Blade is the model to follow.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I tend to agree. While I don't hate the movie and will stick up for it when people rank it alongside Catwoman or X3 (and GL, now), it is a failure. It has moments of greatness (like when Nick Nolte recounts to Connelly how his wife died or the scene between him and Bruce before the left field lightning bolt plot device), it is mired down with terrible effects and a comic book-styled plot that just does not work. An ambitious film that I respect as being one of the few superhero films I can count to have such high minded goals. But it still falls so far short that I didn't enjoy watching the movie the several times I did in 2003 and don't really want to see it again.

But I can understand why it is has passionate fans who defend it. I feel the same way about those who critique Batman Returns, another one of those truly visionary superhero films that tries to be more than the genre dictates and (in my mind) actually succeeds. By the same token, I will defend SM3 as an enjoyable film, not because of artistic sensibilities, but just because it has any form of sincere sensibilities instilled by Raimi and Maguire while I find many superhero movies mechanical and manufactured (I'm looking at you GL), not to mention most summer movies.

I really dislike Batman Returns, but I will admit that it was a good, well made film.

And I enjoy watching SM3 too, until there's a scene in Mary Jane is in. She's takes the fun out of every scene she's in.

I got you guys riled up.

Oh, you.

You had me fooled!

 

[Doctor Jones]

Deadpool should be made for around $30 - $40 million I agree. Reading the script it could be made for around that. I think it could make it back. Now it won't be a smash success, but I think it could make its money back.

 

[kedrell]

I think it would be easier for the studio to know how to market it than Kick Ass was.

 

[Tron Bonne]

I got you guys riled up.

Heh, I find it funny when someone tries to pass off their nonsense as just being something to 'rile up' anyone. It's usually pretty obvious when we have a troll, and when someone is just ******** that their crap got cleaned up and they're trying to cover.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

^ Oh snap!

That's fighting words.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I didn't even dislike GL and I'm shocked that anybody would discribe it as "awesome."

I'm also shocked that some people don't know studio B.sing when they see it. I'll become a hooker if they make a direct GL sequel with 95% of the original cast.

 

[BestGirl]

I didn't even dislike GL and I'm shocked that anybody would discribe it as "awesome."

I'm also shocked that some people don't know studio B.sing when they see it. I'll become a hooker if they make a direct GL sequel with 95% of the original cast.

We're gonna hold you to that, you know.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

We're gonna hold you to that, you know.

lol Fine. I know it will never happen so I feel perfectly safe writing that.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

If a sequel happens (which I heavily doubt it will) I will be in Hate-ville with lawyers! t:

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

If a sequel happens (which I heavily doubt it will) I will be in Hate-ville with lawyers! t:

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I will even have your first client lined up:

Spoiler

okay I'm done.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I will even have your first client lined up:

Spoiler

okay I'm done.

How much will he pay?

 

[Chewy]

He'll give you one of his WoW accounts