Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 1

[flickchick85]

Exactly. Cars isn't a bad animated film by any stretch of the imagination: it's enjoyable, beautifully animated and well-made...it just feels pretty standard, when Pixar films usually feel like anything but. That's why it gets hate - because for that year, it made Pixar seem like just another animation studio, a thought which ruffles the feathers of Pixar nuts everywhere, lol.

 

[mclay18]

Cars felt like it was the first Pixar film pandering to small children only. Pixar films are universal and can be enjoyed by people of all ages, but not Cars. I barely remember what happened in that film, and that it bored me.

Cars 2 looks more of the same. It'll make around the standard Pixar money ($200-$240M domestic and $600M worldwide), but nothing special.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I wouldn't be surprised if Cars 2 made 500+mil just from it's international numbers.

I'm giving it 250 to 275mil domestic and over 500mil overseas.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Why exactly did you predict 68 mil in the 1st place? Everything it had coming in reviews, buzz etc. was way worse than what thor had so why did you assume it would debut with higher #'s?

A. I'm not going to apologize for making a bad prediction. I make good and bad predictions, it's how the cookie crumbles.

B. You can easily looks back at my posts in this thread and the GL boxoffice thread to see why I predicted this much.

C. Hindsight is 20/20 this was not an easy movie to predict. In 2008 Twilight got bad reviews and opened to 69mil, Transformers had mixed reviews and opened with a s**tload. Sometimes movies open well regardless of reviews.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

A. I'm not going to apologize for making a bad prediction. I make good and bad predictions, it's how the cookie crumbles.

B. You can easily looks back at my posts in this thread and the GL boxoffice thread to see why I predicted this much.

C. Hindsight is 20/20 this was not an easy movie to predict. In 2008 Twilight got bad reviews and opened to 69mil, Transformers had mixed reviews and opened with a s**tload. Sometimes movies open well regardless of reviews.

Fully agreed.

It made more than I though it would (though I was pretty close at $50 million)

 

[kedrell]

If you take away the inflated prices for 3-D, then GL pulled in only $45-46M opening weekend.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I don't really like to talk inflation for a movie's grossing. Whatever it makes, it makes.

 

[kedrell]

Well inflated by 3-D(in the here & now) I reckon to be different than inflating the gross of a movie from a by-gone-era to today's numbers(not nearly as fair). GL's attendance was that of a $45-46M opening weekend movie.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

You are right about that, but accurate is that number?

 

[kedrell]

Well BOM reported that 45% of GL's OW was with 3-D. It all depends on how much a percentage bump 3-D adds to a ticket price. I can't give exact numbers because every place has different rates. But I think a ball-park estimate of 3-D adding an extra 20% in cost on average to a ticket price sounds about right. So figure 45% of $53,174,303 which is $23,928,436 and then take 20% of that # which is $4,785,687 and then subtract that # from it's over-all OW gross for a total of $48,388,616 w/o a 3-D boost. So my off-the-top-of-my-head guess of $45-46 was slightly low(I was using BOM's Friday 3-D % numbers of 49% and extrapolating that to the whole weekend, which wasn't as accurate since it didn't hold to 49% through Saturday & Sunday). And accuracy is only so-so with this kind of thing since much is assumed(although I'd say reasonably assumed).

 

[Marvin]

I wouldn't be surprised if Cars 2 made 500+mil just from it's international numbers.

I'm giving it 250 to 275mil domestic and over 500mil overseas.

I have a feeling the majority of the audience has been waiting for the big summer animated film.

numbers and marketing wise they may think it's the only one that's coming out this summer looking the the performance of panda.

 

[psylockolussus]

Cars is the worst Pixar movie!

 

[marvelman2006]

I never was able to get through cars in its entirety. It didnt bore me it just didnt interest me which is weird for a pixar movie. My two least liked pixar movies are cars and ratauoie or however you spell it. I still think UP started off way too heavy for a kids movie.

I would be willing to bet though cars 2 doesnt do more then 81 million this weekend. It sure as heck doesnt have the steam that Toy story 3 had last summer.

 

[chaseter]

Okay so Transformers for some dumb reason now comes out next Tuesday but my theater only has like one 9pm showing. WTF is going on with that???

 

[Marvin]

Okay so Transformers for some dumb reason now comes out next Tuesday but my theater only has like one 9pm showing. WTF is going on with that???

Paramount is trying their best to diffuse their numbers, even if it means it only plays 12 times in 12 days lol.

 

[Marvin]

Cars is the worst Pixar movie!

This could be argued, but it would come down to a matter of depth based story telling which means absolutely nill to it's target audience. That being said I'm sure many kids love cars the most.

not to mention it probably makes pixar the most money.

 

[Marvin]

box office mojo posted an article on the state of comic book adaptations.
one of their few articles I can get behind.

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3188&p=.htm

 

[marvelman2006]

box office mojo posted an article on the state of comic book adaptations.
one of their few articles I can get behind.

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3188&p=.htm

I agree with that article pretty much 100%. Super hero movies are so big right now were getting second and even 3rd tier heroes and some of them just arent going to be big as say batman or spiderman. Plus this summer is so damn packed with big budget movies that not all of them are going to rake in the cash as they would have say last summer. Transformers and harry potter will clearly do battle for movie of the summer money wise but I can see cap and cowboys getting some nice cash of there own. All it takes is one big summer movie to ignite the rest and so far nothing has really done that. The one movie that can clearly do big business is planet of the apes because it pretty much is the last big movie of the summer and no real competition after it.

 

[Marvin]

I honestly wonder how today's audience would have received the first spiderman if it were released in tact.

I'm sure any of this years releases would have liked to switch spots with it.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

box office mojo posted an article on the state of comic book adaptations.
one of their few articles I can get behind.

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3188&p=.htm

I disagree with some of it. I don't think Fox or Marvel really expected these movies to become true blockbusters. I feel it's a little condescending just because GL failed and X-men First Class (a movie without Wolverine, and with few popular X-men characters) is going to only do okay. I don't think it's that the audiences are tired of Superhero movies. They're tired of Superhero origin movies.

Every Superhero movie released doesn't have to be a blockbuster.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Just going to re-post what I said in the Captain America thread since the second trailer dropped an hour or so back:

This further cements that Captain America is going to be a massive hit even despite opening the week after Harry Potter.

Because there is a lot in these two trailers playing heavily to males and females. Successfully in my opinion.

The "ugly duckling" story with Chris Evans as the little guy trying to prove he has it in himself when nobody else is ready and willing to believe in him. That's a universal theme and taking one look at him all meek and lowered begging, "Just give me a chance..." will seal the deal with women, who do matter to the success or failure of these big releases contrary to the belief of fandom.

Setting it in WWII, making the primary villains as the Nazis (another universal theme that made Inglorious Basterds a big hit) and going for a full-on retro-era epic adventure with superheros will get the men.

But ultimately...I'd say it comes down to this.

People are ready to pump their fists in the air and scream, "YA! USA!" while waving the American flag in a way we haven't seen onscreen in...years. Sam Raimi took advantage of that in his three Spider-Man films by doing that to great success and applause from audiences and as much as I loved Superman Returns, they were foolish to not embrace the American nature of the character and myth. I seriously doubt we get that in The Man of Steel either.

 

[ultimatefan]

What II´m noticing is this is the summer foreign BO is saving Hollywood´s ass. Other than, surprisingly, Hangover II, no major releases are having an outstanding performance in the domestic market. Even POTC 4 isn´t doing that great considering how expensive it was and the franchise´s past numbers. It´s pretty much the overseas BO that´s making them succeed, in some cases. Thor is actually doing fine for a movie based on a lesser known superhero in US, but its performance is a lot more imressive overseas. Kung Fu Panda 2 barely pays its production budget in US, but is making a fortune in other countries. XMFC is not doing awesome business overseas, but still better than in US. GL, sadly, doesn´t seem to be doing that well in either case.HP always did very well in US, but much better overseas. It will be interesting to see how otherr releases like Transformers 3 will do.

 

[Marvin]

Just going to re-post what I said in the Captain America thread since the second trailer dropped an hour or so back:

Since when is period epic comic book film a bigger draw than the alternative? I thought that's one of the things that killed first class.
I also thought film goers hated flag waving American films?

I do think this film has a lot of marketing potential based on it's cliche'd ugly duckling story. It's the simple films such as Avatar that really reach the universal audience.

I'm very curious how this will do.
I still think the producers are missing out on the characterization in much the same why they did with GreenLantern, but like green lantern it will be a very watchable take on the man.

 

[jmc]

All the more reason Cap Am is gonna have to do the majority of it's business States side.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I liked Mojo's article and agree with it wholeheartedly. The studios are stupid if they think that every comicbook movie is going to be an Iron Man atleast. They need to treat most of these B-listers as the B-listers they are budget wise.

Or they need to give these B-listers better scripts and more suitable directors.

Anyway my predictions are:

1. Cars 2: 80mil (I hope I'm over predicting it because it looks dopey)

2. Green Lantern: 18.1mil-66% (The movie has already become a popculture punchline and the weekday numbers are pointing to an atleast 60% drop)

3. Bad Teacher: 17.1mil (I don't know if I'm going to see this anymore but I like JT so I wish it success for what it is)

4. Super 8: 12.7mil-41% (I think I'm going a little high but what the hell?)