Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 1

[Marvin]

of course they could have, but executives have a language that works in broad strokes...
can't blame them with the sheer amount of money they put on the line.

Expect Jack Black to star in the sequel. The fans have spoken.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

The best argument for Cap's A list status if I've ever heard one.

I said that a few pages ago.

 

[BestGirl]

They couldn't balance pleasing the fanboys and the GA.

Actually, I think it was the inability to manage the budget that killed GL.

 

[jmc]

WB, the same studio that brought us TDK, churned out GL. You would think they would have treated it with the same thought and care but no.

Let's be honest, TDK is not really a WB film, we all know who the boss was in that movie. GL's failings really do say something about both WB and Chris Nolan.

 

[kedrell]

Actually, I think it was the inability to manage the budget that killed GL.

Obviously, that's a compounding factor as well. But if GL had cost only the same as the other 3 CBM's this summer, I'd still say it wouldn't earn enough for a sequel. Though it at least might have had a chance of breaking even eventually.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Let's be honest, TDK is not really a WB film, we all know who the boss was in that movie. GL's failings really do say something about both WB and Chris Nolan.

I'm pretty sure it is.

WB does deserve credit for TDK if only for one thing: They hired Christopher Nolan to handle Batman.

 

[kedrell]

I'm pretty sure it is.

WB does deserve credit for TDK if only for one thing: They hired Christopher Nolan to handle Batman.

Which I am now convinced that they did as a last resort. It was a total gamble but they really had nothing left to lose. And their random dart-throwing type of descision making on this happened to hit it's mark for once. It missed the next 3-4 times they tried it. Not a good strategy, over-all.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I don't think Nolan was a last resort. There wasn't anyone else approached for Batman Begins, but there were many failed Batman projects.

 

[kedrell]

It's those failed projects I am refering to. They were in danger of being left totally behind in this new CBM era.

 

[Bunker]

Didn't they approach Aronofsky to do BB before Nolan?

 

[kedrell]

I dunno, maybe. Point is, they were at the end of their rope for the most part. They really couldn't have fallen much further behind than they already were.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

It's those failed projects I am refering to. They were in danger of being left totally behind in this new CBM era.

How was WB picking Nolan for Batman Begins a last resort? It's not like they were desperate at the time to put out a Batman film. It just seems like the project that won out of all the others.

Didn't they approach Aronofsky to do BB before Nolan?

Nah it was Batman: Year One

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Actually, I think it was the inability to manage the budget that killed GL.

This is true in regards to the box office, i was talking about the tone of the movie.

 

[jmc]

I'm pretty sure it is.

WB does deserve credit for TDK if only for one thing: They hired Christopher Nolan to handle Batman.

You know what I mean though, TDK and even to some extent BB aren't really 'studio' films.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

They're studio films. We don't know how much control Nolan had for BB and TDK. We can't assume Campbell didn't have the same amount of control for GL just because it was bad. Every studio film that's bad isn't because the studio stepped in, and we can't assume that just because BB and TDK were hits that Nolan had complete control.

 

[jmc]

I think you've got a different interpretation of what a studio film is to me then. Rumour has it that GL had one too many cooks in the kitchen, never heard anything like that once about Nolan's Batman, in fact Nolan was given a surprising amount of control over BB and even more so over TDK, for Rises he's pretty much doing whatever the hell he wants.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Bad Teacher did much better than I thought it would. It better thank the BridesMaids gods for that treat. Ofcourse it's legs won't be as good but it's a hit already with it's reported 20 million dollar budget. I just don't see it making it to 100mil but 90mil is possible.

Cars 2 is performing exactly as it should I guess. I have absolutely no interest in Cars or it's boxoffice numbers so whatever. I'm sure Pixar is happy but it's 3D share is looking to come in under 50% like every other big movie not named Thor. It's getting pretty close to official that 3D is losing a bit of steam in the states.

GL falls like a mothertrucker this weekend because of tepid word of mouth. There isn't alot of good news in those numbers. Thats what happen when you hire the wrong writers and director for your project. Also, the marketing never really flew. IMHO WB hasn't made one good comicbook movie outside of Nolan's Bat-films. It's a shame too because I enjoy alot of their characters.

Super 8 is going to have another decent drop and should end with 120 to 130mil. Not the super amazing numbers first thought of but still a good result for a movie that didn't cost 150 million dollars like the other flicks. the really good news for it is like Star Trek it's actually going to have legs and is obviously having solid word of mouth. JJ needs to get to cracking on Star Trek 2 already!

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Well that is true jmc. I'm just saying that WB should get credit for it's success as well as it's failures. BB and TDK are WB films as well as a Christopher Nolan films.

 

[chaseter]

Green Lantern won't even get to 100 domestic. That's a bomb.

 

[Lighthouse]

Lessons will be learned from Green Lantern, except for the only one that really matters. Don't do a movie if you don't have a good script. Something that Hollywood never learns.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

But it's not about having a good script in Hollywood. It's about selling a movie with wide appeal.

 

[A Necessary Evil]

I still say HP7.2 makes the billion mark.

 

[chaseter]

It definitely will. All of my midnight showings here are already sold out!

 

[Bunker]

Super 8 is going to have another decent drop and should end with 120 to 130mil. Not the super amazing numbers first thought of but still a good result for a movie that didn't cost 150 million dollars like the other flicks. the really good news for it is like Star Trek it's actually going to have legs and is obviously having solid word of mouth. JJ needs to get to cracking on Star Trek 2 already!

The budget was 50 million and the movie wasn't based on a brand or property. I'd say 120 million is a pretty big success.

 

[chaseter]

If a movie doubles it budget domestic alone then it is a huge success.