Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 1

[Marvin]

then they started using more action and bow they DO THE MOVIE IN 3D.

3D did add 30mill so it's hard to say.
Bay has been one to come under budget consistently(especially looking at the first film). If it did cost less than the second which was like 200mill, maybe people would finally start giving him some credit on that level alone. GL cost what again?

I won't go around throwing insults though, they may come back to bite you in the ass.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

3D did add 30mill so it's hard to say.
Bay has been one to come under budget consistently(especially looking at the first film). If it did cost less than the second which was like 200mill, maybe people would finally start giving him some credit on that level alone. GL cost what again?

I won't go around throwing insults though, they may come back to bite you in the ass.

If there's another thing I respect about Michael Bay (yes there are things guys) other than his ability to make a movie an event, it's his management with a budget. He, like James Cameron, can use CGI expertly and not have the budget go out of control. It's because he uses a combination of stuntwork and CGI to make it all work, even though CGI JFK looked like a complete video game character in the beginning.

****ing how? You just act like you know ****, when you really dont.

The fact it's CHEAPER and has more action is really amazing. The fact Bay did that, is pretty genius.

But no...no one ever praises the guy for creating some of the best action ever shot on film.

Ignore Dark_b, he never has any idea what the hell he's talking about with movies.

 

[Doctor Jones]

Bay's action in TF3 was incredible. Even though the ifnal battle felt like an hour, there amazing action that made my jaw drop.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Ultimately, I won't lie and I'll say I enjoyed it. I liked it more than ROTF, but not as much as the first. I still loved the action and learned to ignore a bunch of the other stuff. The humor wasn't as bad as ROTF so it was easier to ignore, except for the parts with Ken Jeong (I can't believe I'm saying this but I'm glad he was killed off), and a few small parts.

 

[Doctor Jones]

One thing that cannot be denied about the Transformers films is that Bay knows how to bring the action. His action set pieces are unlike anything that has been put on screen, and the 3D in TF3 is especially breathtaking and awesome. No matter how incoherent the film itself is, people will pay to see robots beat the **** out of each other and destroy things in awesome ways. One frame of Prime standing around talking to Shia looks better than anything that was presented in Green Lantern.

The drop off here, box office-wise, should be attributed to a lack of extreme anticipation for the film in an unusually crowded summer.

I gotta agree with this. I am curious to see what the 3D might look like. But I don't want to pay more money to see a movie again that I didn't like.

TF3 budget was $195 million.

Gotta hand it to Bay. I liked TF3 more than GL anyway. At least TF3 had cool robot action I cared about.

Franchise brand loyalty and a general popularity with the first film did that. Granted, I didn't like the first film and only saw the second HBO, but the WOM was poor enough that TF3 is not going to cross $400 million. It won't even cross $350 million, because audiences disliked the last installment. Kind of like the drop between each Pirates movie after the second one crossed $400 million. It will still do boffo and a fourth one will be made, but audiences clearly didn't love the last one if they aren't lining up to make this one break records. An example would be most people disliked Spider-Man 3 (though I enjoyed it myself), but it made mad money its first weekend/week because it was a AAA brand that was coming off a previous installment with great WOM, just like TF2 was several years ago.

But wouldn't it have been the way it performed in its first couple weeks and then dropped off once WOM spread on how bad it was? I don't get how a bad movie can make that much money. It stayed consistently strong if I remember.

 

[Bunker]

Anyone notice Bay re-used footage from The Island during the freeway scene? I think he's the only director that's ever used footage from previous films not once but TWICE. He re-used the Autobots arriving to earth from TF in ROTF when the Decepticons arrived.

 

[Doctor Jones]

Ultimately, I won't lie and I'll say I enjoyed it. I liked it more than ROTF, but not as much as the first. I still loved the action and learned to ignore a bunch of the other stuff. The humor wasn't as bad as ROTF so it was easier to ignore, except for the parts with Ken Jeong (I can't believe I'm saying this but I'm glad he was killed off), and a few small parts.

All that humor turned me off. And his parents were useless and they played off of the mother too much again.

This was better because Fox wasn't in it, so i didn't feel the hype surround her, and nothing extreme as the testicle jokes. Although the whole stall scene came pretty damn close. That turned me off from the movie. I laughed a little, but I didn't laugh as much as everybody else because I was sick of this **** from a TF movie.

Just that whole first act was a huge waste of time for Sam's story. Jeong's character could have been a regular paranoid guy. You didn't need to devote all that time to him.

And the Obama and Republican joke. Talk about a horrible joke.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I don't know, I think either Fox or Whitelely performances are good, but I must be honest and say I liked Fox's character more because she was a more take-charge character. She helped out Bumblebee hugely in the first and did some things in the second, but even though Whitelely (or however you spell her name, too lazy) did persuade Megatron, Fox's character just felt stronger, even though the performances weren't.

And why the parents were in this movie I have no idea. I hate characters that are in a movie just for the sake of comic relief.

 

[DACrowe]

for the second time I wasn't using that argument what so ever, it was an entirely different point!

but if you must go there then fine.
This movie is dumb

This movie is dumber

Why are they not torn apart for not being insightful character studies or trashed for demanding you hold your intelligence at the door?(honest question). Probably has a little to do with expectations or something hypocritical like that. The journey of the main character in bayformers, especially the most recent has a whole ton more depth than just about anyone in those films, but hey what do I know I actually enjoyed the first TF film alot, I checked my brain at the door years back and i seem to have never had it returned.

This is an ever present issue but it always gets blown out of proportion and wrought into every critique and discussion when a bay movie comes out...didn't the Hangover just come out, I never heard anyone talk about plot or substance when that was making it's money. TF3 comes out and it's again with what's the world coming too, i miss the days of orsen wells..etc

Actually, a lot of people were pissing on Hangover Part II (part of the reason it had a 60+ percent drop its second week) and it already has a bad reputation. I don't revile it, but I understand why many do.

As for the two films you pointed out can I just put a at your mention of Ghostbusters, also a and maybe another as well?

Ghosbusters is quite honestly one of the smartest comedies ever written. It is a perfectly told joke. The way it pulls from science, old horror movies, cutting edge (for 1984) special effects and just four of the funniest screen actors in the last 30 years at the peak of their careers (Bill Murray, Dan Akroyd, Harold Ramis and Rick Moranis). It even sprinkles in religion, politics and classic New York City "GFY" humor.

Movies can be fun and smart. They don't have to be deep or emotionally cathartic. But you made my point by picking a film that engages its viewer with memorable characters, a memorable story and great comedy set pieces that combine into perfection. Now compare that to recent comedies like Just Go With It, Your Highness or GB's much-declined director's No Strings Attached. I'm sure people who like those movies say, "You can turn your brain off" and for comedies that's a fairer excuse for that genre. But GB shows it can be so much more fun when you do not.

 

[DACrowe]

And the Obama and Republican joke. Talk about a horrible joke.

So what were the Obama and Republican jokes? I am curious.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

So what were the Obama and Republican jokes? I am curious.

Spoiler

Sam was applying to jobs, and at one of them he bragged about getting medal from Obama for what he did in TF2. The interviewer scoffed at him getting a medal from Obama by saying he was Republican. I found the joke harmless and I think people are mad over because it's Michael Bay.

 

[dark_b]

i see that Boxofficemojo posted the 195 million number. now i see why you all belive that number.bravo bravo

now if 30 millions was onyl for the 3D that would mean that without 3D this would make it a 165 million movie. yes because all the actors worked for less money then in 2009 which made 400 million domestic. yes because bay worked for less money then in 2009.

if Boxofficemojo and a lot of bloggers would have eyes they would notice that the official number is 195 millions +30 millions for 3D. which makes it official a 225 million budget.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

It's 195 including the $30 million for 3D genius.

Saying otherwise is an invalid strawman argument.

 

[dark_b]

It's 195 including the $30 million for 3D genius.

Saying otherwise is an invalid strawman argument.

this means that without 3D like TF2 in 2009 that the budget is 165 . so in 2009 the budget for TF2 was 200 . in 2011 its 165(without 3D like TF2). so this movie is 35 millions cheaper then TF2 which made 400 domestic and 800 worldwide. now if we add that Shia and the actors got a bigger paycheck since TF2 made a lot of money. this makes the budget even lower .

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

http://www.therichest.org/celebnetworth/celeb/actors/shia-labeouf-net-worth/

Labeouf gets 10 million more, $15 million up from $5 million, that doesn't lower or lift up the budget.

Any more trolling comments?

And not only box office mojo lists that as the budget but also the hollywood reporter.

 

[lime]

Box Office Mojo are saying that Transformers 3 has 195 millions budget. Sounds normal for movie of this kind, and the moment it hit 400 WW it will be in pure profit.

 

[Thebumwhowalks]

It's 195 including the $30 million for 3D genius.

Saying otherwise is an invalid strawman argument.

Y'know, last weekend when you used my own schtick against me by calling me 'genius' sarcastically, and i said you could have that joke if you wanted it, I didn't think you would honestly use another person's gag. Anyway, i think you need some tips on how and when to use it.

I only ever used it myself when someone attacked me with some kind of malicious personal attack on the boards, it's not intended for use when discussing something as harmless as box office numbers, cause it just comes off as not very nice otherwise, genius.
Ye see whit ah mean?

Professor Patronising
Joke School BA(hons)

 

[Doctor Jones]

Spoiler

Sam was applying to jobs, and at one of them he bragged about getting medal from Obama for what he did in TF2. The interviewer scoffed at him getting a medal from Obama by saying he was Republican. I found the joke harmless and I think people are mad over because it's Michael Bay.

And uneccessary. The joke pretty much fell flat on its face. I mean that joke won't even be funny in 50 years. It will be too dated. People will know of Obama, but they made such a huge deal of it, it's something that's too modern to laugh at and won't be funny in time. It's one of those things where you have to be here now to laugh at or appreciate.

He did the same thing in TF2 with the swine flu ****. And you can tell Bay loves Obama. I'm no Republican but inserting your own love for a politican isn't a smart move. I don't care how awesome Obama is to Sam anyway. That picture they took was pretty funny, but they made too much of a big deal with it. All it could have been was that he got a medal. Hell, it's better if you use an actor and base him off the current President, like Singer did in X2.

I like the fact that these films take place in this world, but stuff to that extent will make the film suffer in the long run. Bay likes to please crowds with these films now, but in the long run it won't get much better.

 

[Thebumwhowalks]

And uneccessary. The joke pretty much fell flat on its face. I mean that joke won't even be funny in 50 years. It will be too dated. People will know of Obama, but they made such a huge deal of it, it's something that's too modern to laugh at and won't be funny in time. It's one of those things where you have to be here now to laugh at or appreciate.

You said the same thing elsewhere about him using things like twitter in the movie, that it was a bad idea and would date the movie. Sometimes it's good to actually have contemporary things in movies, to give us more of a real world feel.

edit: He's making that film for the young, not folk off in the far off future, they are not meant to be great art, regardless, I don't think such things date a film so much.

 

[terry78]

Movies from every decade use real world pop culture nods, even from back in the 30's when certain things were popular. It dates them, but it's still funny.

 

[Doctor Jones]

Which I don't agree with. I hear the Michael Jackson joke in LW2 and I don't get it. It might have been funny at the time, but now it doesn't really mean much. You just hear his name and go, "Oh..." and connect the dots but that's about it.

They can still be funny. But it still dates the film. Movies should feel timeless. Even if there are restrictions that could give away the time it was made, the content within the film should hold up for as long as film exists.

 

[Doctor Jones]

You said the same thing elsewhere about him using things like twitter in the movie, that it was a bad idea and would date the movie. Sometimes it's good to actually have contemporary things in movies, to give us more of a real world feel.

edit: He's making that film for the young, not folk off in the far off future, they are not meant to be great art, regardless, I don't think such things date a film so much.

But with something like this, you would think to make an accessible movie to all ages.

You don't need to direct pop culture references to make something feel real. Although I'm not against showing name brands on products. Especially something like Twitter. I don't know how long that will last.

But the jokes were just so forced. They just sucked. Like Bay intentionally goes out to do it for the young crowd. The problem is the jokes don't work and are forced. You can't salvage writing like, "I'm a tweet hound, I tweet non stop all the time" or stuff like that. Given the context too it was a bad moment to drop a reference. It just felt it was there for the sake of a hip joke.

 

[Thebumwhowalks]

So not all jokes are timeless, that doesn't mean that folk shouldn't use contemporary gags in films.
and when you say things like using twitter is dating the movie as well, it seems like you are just looking for things to complain about because it is a Micheal Bay movie, and an easy target.

edit: Just for the record, i posted this up before I read your specific reply to my post, but it still applies to that.

 

[dark_b]

now that is interesting
http://www.comingsoon.net/news/movienews.php?id=79281

 

[terry78]

It actually increased from Thursday to Friday, huh?