Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 2

[:eek:]

In regards to Harry Potter. Does anyone think it's going to drop huge this weekend?

I think it's a safe bet it will drop more than 50% at least. Could be as much as 60%. Comingsoon is predicting 56%

 

[S.A.A.D.]

We really do need a break from superheroes, I was only thinking this today that if you'd asked me 5 years ago that we'd be getting all these new character on screen I would have said fantastic. A case of be careful for what you wish for because this onslaught has shown me that I really don't need to see or even want to see every famous comic character come to life. Funny how things change.

We? There is no we. What you mean is that "Some of really do need a break from superheroes". Instead of complaining about there being too many superhero movies why don't you and the others who are worn out because of them do something about it? Rather then just rehashing the same old tired complaint over and over and over. It's not rocket science to figure out that all you guys would have to do is take a time out and ignore x amount of superhero movies for as long as it's necessary.

Imo, you're acting as if everyone is tired of superhero movies.

 

[chaseter]

In regards to Harry Potter. Does anyone think it's going to drop huge this weekend?

I think most on here were expecting a 50-60% drop. It won't be below 50% and it won't be anything crazy like 69%.

 

[dark_b]

Exactly. I don't get the complaints people have of wanting them to stop making superhero films. If you're burnt out on them...just don't watch them. It's not like these superhero films are preventing other studios from making non superhero summer blockbusters either.

After Captain America, just about all of Marvel's other characters that haven't had a movie are C listers or worse. Aside from a few like Dr. Strange, I do think they should take a break in regards to trying to use lower tiered characters in the near future. I'm not necessarily tired of them, but it is a tad ridiculous how many they are trying to pump out in a single year.

In regards to Harry Potter. Does anyone think it's going to drop huge this weekend?

its not that simple. good directors with huge potential are spending over 2 years on making stupid commercial men in spandex movies. do we really need Batman 3 from Nolan? TDK was fantastic. Inception was proof that he can do something original without a graphic novel on a huge budget.B. Singer spend way to much time on comicbookmovies. and so on.

 

[Figs]

its not that simple. good directors with huge potential are spending over 2 years on making stupid commercial men in spandex movies. do we really need Batman 3 from Nolan? TDK was fantastic. Inception was proof that he can do something original without a graphic novel on a huge budget. Singer spend way to much on comicbookmovies. and so on.

First off, you're biased with that statement about "stupid commercial men in spandex".

Second, just because a few directors here and there decide to make a comic film, doesn't mean all the other numerous good to great directors stop making films and wait for the comic book directors to finish. Every year there are plenty of non comic book films from good directors coming out. Who cares if a small handfull decide to do a comic film on the side.

 

[Liam_H]

You were right. I can't believe it had that big of a drop to Saturday. I thought it would be about a 40 something percent drop based on the other movies. Batman and Harry will be close buddies for a long time.

That huge of a drop on saturday was not surprising because the friday gross was highly inflated due to the midnight showing numbers. If you removed that number the weekend multiplier would have been fairly close to the multiplier of Part 1.

 

[Marvin]

looks like potter amost did it

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/grossbydays.htm?days=5&p=.htm

second fastest to 200mill is not bad, however it appears it's record breaking may slow down at this point.

 

[Liam_H]

the slow down of Potter was inevitable, it no way has the legs of TDK cause its appeal isn't wide enough

 

[Yodaman]

the slow down of Potter was inevitable, it no way has the legs of TDK cause its appeal isn't wide enough

You really don't have to say that once per page.

 

[Marvin]

lol

 

[terry78]

I doubt it will be number one this weekend, even if Cap obviously won't do what it did box office wise. Paramount is making sure everyone knows this is the one to watch before the summer lets out.

 

[jmc]

We? There is no we. What you mean is that "Some of really do need a break from superheroes". Instead of complaining about there being too many superhero movies why don't you and the others who are worn out because of them do something about it? Rather then just rehashing the same old tired complaint over and over and over. It's not rocket science to figure out that all you guys would have to do is take a time out and ignore x amount of superhero movies for as long as it's necessary.

Imo, you're acting as if everyone is tired of superhero movies.

You'll find out this weekend just how tired people are.

 

[CelticPredator]

I dont need a stop, but a slowing down would be nice. :hehe

But i'll still see every single one.

 

[amazingfantasy15]

its not that simple. good directors with huge potential are spending over 2 years on making stupid commercial men in spandex movies. do we really need Batman 3 from Nolan? TDK was fantastic. Inception was proof that he can do something original without a graphic novel on a huge budget.B. Singer spend way to much time on comicbookmovies. and so on.

Nolan will have made 3 superhero movies, which it seems is what was intended from the start, it's his Batman story. In between the first two he made an original movie, The Prestidge and Inception. So where's the complaint? He's still making non-comic movies, actually he probably wouldn't have gotten a green light for Inception without the success of the Dark Knight. I don't agree that Bryan Singer spent too long either, I wish he would've stayed with the X-Men franchise rather than jumping to Superman though because his Superman idea was not very good.

 

[Anita18]

its not that simple. good directors with huge potential are spending over 2 years on making stupid commercial men in spandex movies. do we really need Batman 3 from Nolan? TDK was fantastic. Inception was proof that he can do something original without a graphic novel on a huge budget.B. Singer spend way to much time on comicbookmovies. and so on.

Or maybe Nolan is working on another Batman movie because he wants to finish his story. Obviously doing a superhero movie wasn't beneath him, and instead of stooping to what's typical of the genre, he elevated it.

Nolan's learned a ton working on the Batman movies. He sure wouldn't have been able to jump from Insomnia/Prestige to Inception without them. I don't think he would consider them a waste of his talent or time.

 

[ALP]

Potter definitely won't do as much as TDK domestically. It's already slowing down. TDK on it's first Monday and Tuesday made $24 and $20 Million each. Potter has done $18 and $15 million each. But Harry is going to sweep the floor worldwide. I imagine it will be the second highest grossing film ever worldwide, behind only Avatar. I mean just look how much Pirates 4 did overseas.

Really looking forward to Captain America, not sure what the chances of it being #1 are though.

 

[jmc]

It's too bad no-one else has tried to elevate it also. Oh what I would have given to see Aronofsky's Wolverine.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Potter was never going to trump The Dark Knight domestically. That said, it's still going to be 2011's highest earner here and worldwide.

 

[TLH]

You were right. I can't believe it had that big of a drop to Saturday. I thought it would be about a 40 something percent drop based on the other movies. Batman and Harry will be close buddies for a long time.

Well, like I said, the reasoning for why it stood no chance of beating TDK's Saturday record is that, taking midnights out of the equation, DH2 and TDK both grossed exactly the same on Friday: 48 million.

So then, with TDK grossing 17m on midnights and DH2 grossing 43m on midnights, there was a larger number of people after Friday that had NOT seen TDK than DH2, thus it was always going to win the Saturday battle.

 

[:eek:]

Boxoffice.com have put up their weekend predictions and they think Harry Potter will drop as much as 69%.

 

[Figs]

Boxoffice.com have put up their weekend predictions and they think Harry Potter will drop as much as 69%.

That sounds like a bit too much. I don't usually pay a lot of attention to all of this, but how reliable are Boxoffice.com's guesses?

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Potter was never going to trump The Dark Knight domestically. That said, it's still going to be 2011's highest earner here and worldwide.

I agree. Potter is popular here, but not as popular as some other film franchises. Plus, fantasy movies are much more popular worldwide than domestically, which is why movies like Thor did much better domestically than worldwide.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

GL broke a 100mil because of 3D ticket prices.

I'm looking forward to Captain America but I really do wish that hollywood would cool it with the Superhero flicks.

So that means a movie that had horrible advance buzz, a trailer few people liked, toxic reviews, and horrible word of mouth still was able to draw the public into paying more for a ticket than normal. Still not seeing how the "public is tired of super hero movies". I'll bet Cap America easily gets past $100 million too and its reviews are not stellar either.

Only 16 movies have broken $100 million this year so far, I see 3 super hero movies in that group. The only genre I see doing better is animated movies.

Toldja TDK's Saturday record was comfortably safe.

Also if the Tuesday 15.5m estimate holds, DH2 will also miss out on TDK's 5-day record.

What's the record for 2pm to 5pm on the fourth Wednesday of release? (Yeah...these "records" sound really silly to me)

 

[marvelman2006]

I think this year proved not everyone is into 2nd tier super heroes if anything. Plus I know for a fact people are sick of 3D in general. I dont have the figures in front of me but I remember reading that 3D tvs and bluray players arent exactly flying off the shelves in the world. I would like though after next year to see hollywood take a cooling off period from the super hero genre and maybe just go back to one a year. christ this year we have green hornet, thor, green lantern and captain america and to some extent transformers.

 

[:eek:]

That sounds like a bit too much. I don't usually pay a lot of attention to all of this, but how reliable are Boxoffice.com's guesses?

Well, they are like most sites. Makes some good guesses sometimes and sometimes not. They underestimated Harry Potter's first weekend so I suppose they could underestimate again.