Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 2

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Spider-Fan, you're one of my favorite, maybe my favorite person on the hype...we have a lot in common and have great conversations on and off the boards. I say this without any disrespect but there's a lot going against Cap right now; Harry Potter's gross, current tracking, a sizable (though not super large budget), Superhero fatigue etc.

I'm not trying to be a dick, I'm just not too pleased with the current odds facing Cap.

It's a myth. That's nothing but a spin job by reporters. Just because none of the movies before haven't made Iron Man money doesn't make them failures or disappointments, except for only Green Lantern.

 

[The Morningstar]

See what I said there.

Yea i know there is the Potter factor, but just because there is a massive film out at the same time it doesn't mean another film will be completely blown out of the water. Look at Sherlock Holmes. Made what, 550 million world wide, whilst Avatar was tearing **** up at the box office.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

It's a rarity man. Only 3 films have ever finished second with more than 50 million. Not saying couldn't. In fact, I think it's gonna make late 50s in terms of box office gross.

 

[The Morningstar]

Yea i'm not saying it's a common occurance. But films like Avatar and Potter ain't exactly common either.

I just think Cap will pull a Sherlock Holmes and get a decent box office amount whilst not coming anywhere near the no1 spot. I think 350-400 million.

 

[amazingfantasy15]

Spider-Fan, you're one of my favorite, maybe my favorite person on the hype...we have a lot in common and have great conversations on and off the boards. I say this without any disrespect but there's a lot going against Cap right now; Harry Potter's gross, current tracking, a sizable (though not super large budget), Superhero fatigue etc.

I'm not trying to be a dick, I'm just not too pleased with the current odds facing Cap.

If this were true how did The Dark Knight make as much as it did? It was the third comic book movie out during it's summer.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Yea i'm not saying it's a common occurance. But films like Avatar and Potter ain't exactly common either.

I just think Cap will pull a Sherlock Holmes and get a decent box office amount whilst not coming anywhere near the no1 spot. I think 350-400 million.

Very good point.

 

[ALP]

It's a rarity man. Only 3 films have ever finished second with more than 50 million. Not saying couldn't. In fact, I think it's gonna make late 50s in terms of box office gross.

What three films was it, and what were they going up against?

 

[Liam_H]

What three films was it, and what were they going up against?

The three films were Wanted, The Day After Tomorrow, and Sherlock Holmes.

They were going up against Wall-E, Shrek 2, and Avatar respectively. Link below will help...

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/opennot1.htm

Parker Wayne is right, its not a very common thing to open at #2 above $50 million.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

^ Correct. Thanks.

 

[DACrowe]

You know, I'll be honest about superhero fatigue setting in. After seeing Thor and XFC this summer (and laughing my arse off at GL), I'm very passive about Captain America. I'll see it, but it probably won't be opening weekend and I'm fine with that. When I see images of TASM from EW and even the leaked trailer for The Avengers, my general feeling is "that's cool," with a shrug. Avengers I'm more intrigued by because it is made by Joss Whedon and has something entirely unique going on with it being a team-up (honestly if there was no Lizard in TASM, I would be entirely apathetic about that project). Only TDKR has me really excited for any superhero movie in the foreseeable future but that has to do with the filmmaker and the theme than the actual character.

I'm not trying to sound snobby. It's just if I'm getting apathetic or saturated from this genre, I have to say the GA is moreso. Most in my circle could care less about any of 'em save for TDKR. I have a feeling the floor is going to drop soon (if it hasn't already begun with Green Lantern), in which case a too-soon Spidey reboot and the umpteenth Superman reboot may be the first one to feel an audience backlash. Avengers is too cool and new a concept to fail, but after that (besides TDKR), I'm more curious to see if audiences have had enough.

 

[Marvin]

Only TDKR has me really excited for any superhero movie in the foreseeable future but that has to do with the filmmaker and the theme than the actual character.

It's a sad and unfortunate thing that batman isn't all that interesting in these live action films. All things being equal he would be one of the most compelling characters in film.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I find that even in the a lot of the comics Batman is the most boring character. I don't really care though as it's still him that drags the story and him that makes the choices that affects everyone.

 

[DACrowe]

It's a sad and unfortunate thing that batman isn't all that interesting in these live action films. All things being equal he would be one of the most compelling characters in film.

I don't about in all of film. Anyway, you mistook what I said. I'm not saying Batman as a character is boring. I'd say Bale/Nolan's Bruce Wayne is probably the most interesting superhero protagonist put to screen to date, even if not the most accurate (though there can be fair arguments made for Downey's Tony Stark and even Raimi/Maguire's Peter Parker).

What I meant to say is that seeing a superhero in a movie has lost all its novelty. Even compared to a few years ago where Iron Man seemed cool and intriguing. Seeing Captain America, Thor and Green Lantern this year did not seem like "characters finally on the big screen," but rather "eh....more of the same." That's why even Avengers's teaser, while fun and appealing is not all that exciting for me. Partially because I have a feeling Marvel may just make it a toy commercial (though the great Joss Whedon gives me hope).

My point was that the reason I'm excited to see TDKR is not because of it being another Batman movie. It's because it's a Christopher Nolan movie that looks to epically and in a groundbreaking way, end a trilogy with a sequel to TDK. It's more big ideas it seems to be dealing with and the talent that makes it exciting, not seeing Batman on the big screen. By himself, I've seen him a lot. That's why even a new Spidey movie (and Spidey was my favorite growing up) is passé to me right now.

 

[DarthAlani]

I like how people constantly ***** about SH film fatigue when, CGI films are spammed far more

 

[jmc]

I've always maintained that this year was the real test of superheroes longevity, and the results have been a mixed bag to say the least, nothing's really been a blockbuster smash and that doesn't surprise me at all. I never thought I'd get to the stage where I'd be done with the genre, but it's getting to the stage now where I want something new. Potter's finally come to an end, 2012 is the big year for superheroes, it's time for a fresh start, I'm kinda sick of seeing guys is ridiculous costumes gracing the screen.

 

[DarthAlani]

Yeah, SH films should take a break for a few years

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Next year will be the test. If Batman, Spider-man and the Avengers all underperform then the studios will take a break.

but I doubt that happens because non-Marvel studios don't want to lose their rights to Marvel characters and Warner Bros will always remember Batman made over a billion dollars.

 

[Marvin]

I don't about in all of film. Anyway, you mistook what I said. I'm not saying Batman as a character is boring. I'd say Bale/Nolan's Bruce Wayne is probably the most interesting superhero protagonist put to screen to date, even if not the most accurate (though there can be fair arguments made for Downey's Tony Stark and even Raimi/Maguire's Peter Parker).

What I meant to say is that seeing a superhero in a movie has lost all its novelty. Even compared to a few years ago where Iron Man seemed cool and intriguing. Seeing Captain America, Thor and Green Lantern this year did not seem like "characters finally on the big screen," but rather "eh....more of the same." That's why even Avengers's teaser, while fun and appealing is not all that exciting for me. Partially because I have a feeling Marvel may just make it a toy commercial (though the great Joss Whedon gives me hope).

My point was that the reason I'm excited to see TDKR is not because of it being another Batman movie. It's because it's a Christopher Nolan movie that looks to epically and in a groundbreaking way, end a trilogy with a sequel to TDK. It's more big ideas it seems to be dealing with and the talent that makes it exciting, not seeing Batman on the big screen. By himself, I've seen him a lot. That's why even a new Spidey movie (and Spidey was my favorite growing up) is passé to me right now.

I see what you're saying and I mostly agree. It's not a fun wonderful surprise anymore. I think this began when marvel started pumping them out the way they do and with less then stellar visions at the helm. The first time we all saw that first spider man teaser...I look at the marvel trailers now and it's like they're not even trying to evoke a response outside of the fact that avengers is coming.

The novelty has worn off but that really shouldn't mean the genre(if you will) should be any less viable. It should just mean that now is the time for it to really push the benchmark. Aronofski would have helped immensely in this regard. Thank goodness marvel found Whedon, cause I swear if it was favreau at the helm that would have been another nail in the coffin. The key now if who they get behind the camera and on writing. The genre needs strong visions now more then ever. Like you said, Batman is all nolan at this point. Avengers has Whedon, Spiderman...well we'll see.

As for Batman, I've always thought it suffered by not having comic book take. I just imagine how wonderful a sherlock movie would be with a "bale" version instead of a brilliant one. Thank goodness for the plots and neat villains is all I can say.

 

[Doctor Jones]

Superhero movies won't disappear unless they consecutively suck year after year. They offer all different types of genres. If they look good, are good, and stay good people will want to see them. When B&R came out I'm sure people thought it was the end of comic book films. Not even close. The past ten years have seen the most comic book films ever. There were a lot of bad comic book films before 2008, and I'm sure people thought people were growing tired of comic book films as well. As long as there is creative and talented storytellers at the helm of them, we should be fine. Studios need to be aware of this.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

I'll be disappointed if Captain America... arguably looking like the best superhero movie of the year... doesn't get the number one spot this weekend.

 

[Marvin]

It looks better than thor, I think there are going to be a lot of debates if it's the best one of the year. If XFC hadn't come out yet people would probably be saying the same thing they are about cap at this point.

 

[DACrowe]

I see what you're saying and I mostly agree. It's not a fun wonderful surprise anymore. I think this began when marvel started pumping them out the way they do and with less then stellar visions at the helm. The first time we all saw that first spider man teaser...I look at the marvel trailers now and it's like they're not even trying to evoke a response outside of the fact that avengers is coming.

The novelty has worn off but that really shouldn't mean the genre(if you will) should be any less viable. It should just mean that now is the time for it to really push the benchmark. Aronofski would have helped immensely in this regard. Thank goodness marvel found Whedon, cause I swear if it was favreau at the helm that would have been another nail in the coffin. The key now if who they get behind the camera and on writing. The genre needs strong visions now more then ever. Like you said, Batman is all nolan at this point. Avengers has Whedon, Spiderman...well we'll see.

As for Batman, I've always thought it suffered by not having comic book take. I just imagine how wonderful a sherlock movie would be with a "bale" version instead of a brilliant one. Thank goodness for the plots and neat villains is all I can say.

I think you're right when you say that the novelty of the genre has worn off. When Spider-Man or even X-Men first hit the screen there was a sense of excitement. They're really going to do that on the big screen? But while the appearances and writing has become more faithful as time has gone on, they're still mostly formulaic and there is now really too many. Thor was fun, XFC was fun, but by the time GL came out I was tired of seeing superhero films this summer.

The key to push the genre now is to innovate. While I like the idea of what Marvel Studios is doing and particularly enjoyed the first Iron Man and now Thor, they aren't pushing the envelope. They're getting the formula right or better than Fox usually does or WB did with GL, but while the best movies are enjoyable and the worst ones are merely average, none of them really have blown me away. They start to run together.

The Avengers has the potential to break that and elevate the genre again. I realize the leaked teaser is just a teaser and Whedon's involvement gives me hope for something as satisfying and unique as Serenity. However, the teaser has the same slick editing as the Iron Man spots. It looks like another Iron Man movie with an ensemble of superheroes and I hope it is much, much more than that.

That's probably why I'm more excited for TDKR than any of them (including CA this week), because Nolan is being creative and pushing the genre past perceived limits because the novelty of Batman fighting super villains on the silver screen is long gone. The Lizard is my favorite villain of my favorite Marvel character, but until I see a trailer that shows it will be substantially different than what came before (and not just in tone, but storytelling and narrative as well), I'm just not that excited about that movie.

 

[terry78]

Hollywood is still gearing up the comic book adaptations though, just not always focusing on superheroes. Obscure and cult graphic novels and comic books make for excellent screenplays and fresh franchises, especially when they're so cult that only nerds know about them.

 

[Fanticon]

ok i'm gonna recap, so green lantern came in way under my 145mil prediction. Thor came very close to my 195m prediction. super 8 came in way under my 220m hopeful, xmen came in even under 150m, pirates came in under my 275 and transformers worked its way past my 295. kung fu panda way under my 220m pred. and cars 2 also way under my 240ish. Harry potter i predicted could get as high as 350to400m and capt. i am really hoping will barely break 200m. Cowboys and aliens i've had to downgrade to about 130m.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

I've always maintained that this year was the real test of superheroes longevity, and the results have been a mixed bag to say the least, nothing's really been a blockbuster smash and that doesn't surprise me at all. I never thought I'd get to the stage where I'd be done with the genre, but it's getting to the stage now where I want something new. Potter's finally come to an end, 2012 is the big year for superheroes, it's time for a fresh start, I'm kinda sick of seeing guys is ridiculous costumes gracing the screen.

We probably are spoiled by Spider-Man, TDK, and the Iron Man movies. We are now thinking they all have to be "blockbusters".

How many SH movies are really blockbusters? We've had exactly 6 break $300 million domestic:
TDK
Spider-Man 1, 2, and 3
Iron Man and Iron Man 2

That's it. Even Batman and Superman couldn't break $300 million in '05 and '06 respectively.

I do know this....we just had a Green Lantern movie that had bad advance buzz, horrible reviews, terrible word of mouth, during a box office slump....and it opened with $53 million and broke $100 million at the box office. How does that happen if the public is tired of comic book movies?

Now check out the list of romantic comedies. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=romanticcomedy.htm

Exactly zero $300 million movies. Only one that broke $200 million. The public not only must be "tired of rom-coms"...they never liked them to begin with using the standards we set for SH movies!