Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 2

[DACrowe]

SM2 is a remarkable film, and the hate some people have for Raimi I find sad in recent years.

Very well said. Unlike any other superhero film (not made by Nolan at least), it has such an iconic grandeur. Marvel Studios's films have been more faithful to the comics and they're newer, so the fan community latches onto them as better. But SM2 has an epic and emotional quality about its story that is both personal on the scale Lee always wrote in, but also grande in scope and size of its comic book world. Peter's journey is truly a great one in that movie. And it is a journey beyond an origin, which makes it stand out to any Marvel film made to date (the only non-origin MS has made to date was the mediocre Iron Man 2). There is a simplicity to its narrative, but a sense of joy and a comic book-sized worldview that make it far more memorable than most of the genre.

 

[terry78]

I think as soon as a reboot is announced, suddenly everyone acts like the previous movies were garbage for some reason. Granted with Batman it was slightly justified, but come on.

 

[kedrell]

I think that they're just happy that the possibility of stuff they didn't like getting fixed is now in play. I know I am. Very, very few superhero films based on any singular property are so good initially that I can't easily see a better take being in the cards.

 

[DACrowe]

I think giving Spidey quips and making him a wiseass will be an improvement. Seeing Lizard (my personal favorite villain) will be cool....as long as he has a coat. But doing the origin again with a single love interest (as opposed to two or three which made Peter's supporting cast unique) seems redundant and the trailer doesn't seem all that different from SM1, save for a dark tone. A tone that seems honestly a little too dark and brooding for the character...but we'll have to wait and see what the final product will look like.

 

[chaseter]

Go into the Spidey forums and see them going crazy. People that were whining that Doc Ock was married are now fine with Curt Connors being divorced. People thinking that the last trilogy had hardly no practical stunts and wanting parkour to be the basis of the stunts in this movie. The budget now seems to be around $200 million and we know that a lot of that didn't go to actor salaries like the last films. People bashing Raimi for connecting the villains to Peter Parker but this movie seems to make everyone somehow connected to Oscorp.

In summary, some fanboys are ridiculous. That place never lets down in stupidity.

 

[rashad]

Weekend Actuals (Jul 22-24)
http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

1 N Captain America: The First Avenger Par. $65,058,524 - 3,715 - $17,512 $65,058,524
2 1 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 WB $47,422,212 -72.0% 4,375 - $10,839 $273,539,281
3 N Friends with Benefits SGem $18,622,150 - 2,926 - $6,364 $18,622,150
4 2 Transformers: Dark of the Moon P/DW $12,051,735 -43.5% 3,375 -542 $3,571 $325,841,185
5 3 Horrible Bosses WB (NL) $11,884,319 -33.1% 3,104 -30 $3,829 $82,566,703
6 4 Zookeeper Sony $8,702,055 -29.4% 3,215 -267 $2,707 $59,206,255
7 5 Cars 2 BV $5,655,857 -32.7% 2,668 -581 $2,120 $176,375,295 $200
8 6 Winnie the Pooh BV $5,162,046 -34.3% 2,405 - $2,146 $17,594,297
9 7 Bad Teacher Sony $2,610,925 -49.3% 2,034 -625 $1,284 $94,365,688
10 10 Midnight in Paris SPC $1,804,662 -3.8% 621 -85 $2,906 $44,783,206
11 11 Bridesmaids Uni. $1,325,985 -23.0% 680 -192 $1,950 $163,832,870
12 8 Larry Crowne Uni. $1,019,475 -61.7% 1,035 -1,252 $985 $34,327,405
13 12 Mr. Popper's Penguins Fox $935,068 -31.7% 591 -411 $1,582 $63,500,820
14 9 Super 8 Par. $760,042 -61.4% 658 -801 $1,155 $124,235,102
15 17 The Tree of Life FoxS $555,573 -11.4% 230 -5 $2,416 $11,038,150

 

[JP]

With Singer it's all about his utter lack of subtlety.

Singer as a director is ALL ABOUT subtlety. That's kind of his schtick as a director.

Heck, the only reason I don't like First Class as much as X2 is because it lacks that subtlety Singer's films have.

 

[DACrowe]

Go into the Spidey forums and see them going crazy. People that were whining that Doc Ock was married are now fine with Curt Connors being divorced. People thinking that the last trilogy had hardly no practical stunts and wanting parkour to be the basis of the stunts in this movie. The budget now seems to be around $200 million and we know that a lot of that didn't go to actor salaries like the last films. People bashing Raimi for connecting the villains to Peter Parker but this movie seems to make everyone somehow connected to Oscorp.

In summary, some fanboys are ridiculous. That place never lets down in stupidity.

No Martha Connors? Well, I hope Billy lives with him and Peter is saving Connors for him. If Connors ends up just pulling a Norman and going completely evil and dying...well it would be even closer to SM1 but ruin a villain far more than Raimi ever did.

 

[Marvin]

So Thor indeed beat Captain as far as opening...

I'm ashamed to even look at my initial predictions they were so off.
too many duds this year

 

[kedrell]

I think giving Spidey quips and making him a wiseass will be an improvement. Seeing Lizard (my personal favorite villain) will be cool....as long as he has a coat. But doing the origin again with a single love interest (as opposed to two or three which made Peter's supporting cast unique) seems redundant and the trailer doesn't seem all that different from SM1, save for a dark tone. A tone that seems honestly a little too dark and brooding for the character...but we'll have to wait and see what the final product will look like.

Ditching the bad cheesiness of the Raimi films will be the best thing the reboot could do, IMO. Sometimes cheesiness/corniness can work(CA:TFA & Rocketeer being prime examples of how to pull it off) but it just never worked in Raimi's films. And the reasons IMO can be put into 2 main parts:

1)Maguire can't do comedy. But they did try and it was painful to watch at times.

and

2)The people in the series(extras and what not) seemed like they had been transplanted from some other era yet the film takes place in modern day and that just doesn't mix.

 

[kedrell]

Singer as a director is ALL ABOUT subtlety. That's kind of his schtick as a director.

Heck, the only reason I don't like First Class as much as X2 is because it lacks that subtlety Singer's films have.

There is nothing less subtle than the coming out scene in X2.

 

[chaseter]

No Martha Connors? Well, I hope Billy lives with him and Peter is saving Connors for him. If Connors ends up just pulling a Norman and going completely evil and dying...well it would be even closer to SM1 but ruin a villain far more than Raimi ever did.

It's a rumor that he is divorced, I am not certain if it is a fact. No Martha Connors has been cast but Billy Connors has. But, just seeing people respond well to the rumor is just odd to me. Why get excited about Connors being divorced before you have even seen the movie

 

[DACrowe]

Ditching the bad cheesiness of the Raimi films will be the best thing the reboot could do, IMO. Sometimes cheesiness/corniness can work(CA:TFA & Rocketeer being prime examples of how to pull it off) but it just never worked in Raimi's films. And the reasons IMO can be put into 2 main parts:

1)Maguire can't do comedy. But they did try and it was painful to watch at times.

and

2)The people in the series(extras and what not) seemed like they had been transplanted from some other era yet the film takes place in modern day and that just doesn't mix.

The extras were not played naturalistically, because first how Raimi viewed those type of characters in '60s Stan Lee comics and second to play like old comedies from Hollywood pre-Brando in an attempt to give it a timeless (and yes, kid-friendly) feel.

However, while I have my faults with the Raimi movies, especially SM3, the cheeky humor Raimi is known for worked for the most part I think his first two movies are FAR better than either The Rocketeer or Captain America and that's why neither will be talked about in ten years (or in The Rocketeer's case, now) while the Spidey films are about ten years out and still well regarded. They were very well made. I like Johnson's two movies, but neither have hte depth or exhilaration of what Raimi did. Especially when Cap has such an uneven third act.

But I respect your opinion and doubt I am convincing you with this post.

 

[kedrell]

The extras were not played naturalistically, because first how Raimi viewed those type of characters in '60s Stan Lee comics and second to play like old comedies from Hollywood pre-Brando in an attempt to give it a timeless (and yes, kid-friendly) feel.

But that doesn't work with the way he depicted the city. It's clearly the early 2000's. They even had Macy Gray in there.

It's just terribly off-putting.

However, while I have my faults with the Raimi movies, especially SM3, the cheeky humor Raimi is known for worked for the most part I think his first two movies are FAR better than either The Rocketeer or Captain America and that's why neither will be talked about in ten years (or in The Rocketeer's case, now) while the Spidey films are about ten years out and still well regarded. They were very well made. I like Johnson's two movies, but neither have hte depth or exhilaration of what Raimi did. Especially when Cap has such an uneven third act.

But I respect your opinion and doubt I am convincing you with this post.

But The Rocketeer IS still talked about(cause it's awesome) 20 years later. Raimi's films no doubt will be mentioned as well for quite a while but I doubt they'll age well(they've alread showed large signs of losing their luster).

I think the future will be far kinder to Johnston's 2 films than Raimi's 3.

I know I consider them vastly superior but then I have never been a fan of either director nor the characters in their movies so I have no allegiance to them.

 

[CelticPredator]

Yeah a big WTF to that post...The Rocketteer is stil talked about as said above me...and Captain America is getting a **** ton of praise.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

The extras were not played naturalistically, because first how Raimi viewed those type of characters in '60s Stan Lee comics and second to play like old comedies from Hollywood pre-Brando in an attempt to give it a timeless (and yes, kid-friendly) feel.

However, while I have my faults with the Raimi movies, especially SM3, the cheeky humor Raimi is known for worked for the most part I think his first two movies are FAR better than either The Rocketeer or Captain America and that's why neither will be talked about in ten years (or in The Rocketeer's case, now) while the Spidey films are about ten years out and still well regarded. They were very well made. I like Johnson's two movies, but neither have hte depth or exhilaration of what Raimi did. Especially when Cap has such an uneven third act.

But I respect your opinion and doubt I am convincing you with this post.

I dis agree about Spider-man being FAR better than Captain America. I felt Spider-man was a good origin, and so was Captain America.

I think Spider-man 2 was better, but not Spider-man 1.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Yeah a big WTF to that post...The Rocketteer is stil talked about as said above me...and Captain America is getting a **** ton of praise.

Eh, I wouldn't go that far. I really liked the Rocketeer, but it's not like it's a very popular movie. It's gotten cult status at best.

 

[Doctor Jones]

The Rocketeer is only talked about through the comic book fan community. Has anyone here honestly heard their friends talk about it when the topic of CBM's come up?

 

[Doctor Jones]

Very well said. Unlike any other superhero film (not made by Nolan at least), it has such an iconic grandeur. Marvel Studios's films have been more faithful to the comics and they're newer, so the fan community latches onto them as better. But SM2 has an epic and emotional quality about its story that is both personal on the scale Lee always wrote in, but also grande in scope and size of its comic book world. Peter's journey is truly a great one in that movie. And it is a journey beyond an origin, which makes it stand out to any Marvel film made to date (the only non-origin MS has made to date was the mediocre Iron Man 2). There is a simplicity to its narrative, but a sense of joy and a comic book-sized worldview that make it far more memorable than most of the genre.

Well said. I think the film has aged fine, other than Macey Gray's inclusion in SM1. But SM2 has aged better than SM1. Raimi aimed for New York to be a mixture of real life and fantasy.

 

[terry78]

And add to the fact that we as movie geeks can't get enough of Coach handbags with our MS Office suites, and it's a triple threat!

 

[mclay18]

SM2 is a remarkable film, and the hate some people have for Raimi I find sad in recent years.

Yeah. A lot of them were screaming for a reboot months after SM-3 came out, and last year -- they got their wish. And now their fondness for Raimi's first two Spidey films turned to hatred. All with one subpar sequel.

I think the Marvel Studios films have gotten closer to SM-2 in terms of quality, but I don't think they got there all the way. There's something magical and intangible about SM-2 that's unrivaled. But if The Amazing Spider-Man ends up being half as good, well, I'll be impressed.

 

[DACrowe]

But that doesn't work with the way he depicted the city. It's clearly the early 2000's. They even had Macy Gray in there.

It's just terribly off-putting.





But The Rocketeer IS still talked about(cause it's awesome) 20 years later. Raimi's films no doubt will be mentioned as well for quite a while but I doubt they'll age well(they've alread showed large signs of losing their luster).

I think the future will be far kinder to Johnston's 2 films than Raimi's 3.

I know I consider them vastly superior but then I have never been a fan of either director nor the characters in their movies so I have no allegiance to them.

Eh stepped on some toes?

The Rocketeer is a fine movie, but I believe only genre fans seek it out. It is well regarded by those who were children when it was released and those who seek out the superhero and/or 1940s-pulp styled genre. But the movie is is not so well tapped into the mainstream consciousness as the Raimi Spidey films. They are classics because they were iconic. And I don't just mean flavor of the year blockbusters (like say the Transformers movies or a Ronald Emmerich disaster pic such as The Day After Tomorrow or 2012). They have shown a durability in mainstream popularity--at least the first two--and ten years out people are still precious about them getting remade/rebooted/whatever.

Yeah a big WTF to that post...The Rocketteer is stil talked about as said above me...and Captain America is getting a **** ton of praise.

I enjoyed Captain America, but I don't think it's one of Marvel Studios's best efforts (though solid) and just don't see it being one that stands the test of time. I guess we'll see, but, like The Rocketeer, for fans or those who loved it at release it will may be highly regarded. But to me, it may be a better rendition of The Incredible Hulk where fans loved it upon release, but it fades down the "best lists" as the years pass. I don't see it entering pop culture history with any particular scene(s) becoming classic the way Donner's Superman, Raimi's Spideys, Nolan's Batmans or the first Iron Man have successfully done.

 

[DACrowe]

I dis agree about Spider-man being FAR better than Captain America. I felt Spider-man was a good origin, and so was Captain America.

I think Spider-man 2 was better, but not Spider-man 1.

I think BB and arguably IM1 did the origin formula better than SM1, but Spidey was a pretty great rendition of how Peter became Spidey (so great, it makes me question still the logic of remaking that storyline so soon) and balanced the villain and second and third act drama well enough that it was a good movie with some great moments. Captain America felt very uneven to me. The first two acts flow very well and Stanley Tucci gives a superb performance in the early parts of the movie. But, as I've said, the movie just kind of undercooks the plot in the third act and rushes into one action set piece after another. Instead of a cheesy montage of Cap knocking over factories and Red Skull sceaming/killing nameless henchmen, they should have just made it one big action sequence. Instead, the movie lost all momentum and the death of Bucky felt rushed and out of left field instead of something dramatically earned (which Cap and Haley Atwell's radio chat was). I also felt Red Skull's "death" was rushed and lacked real tension

My opinion of course, but the movie had a lot of narrative problems and while supremely entertaining, has little that will cause it to stick out in the memory for years to come unless one simply loves the Captain America character and his being in a movie.

Yeah. A lot of them were screaming for a reboot months after SM-3 came out, and last year -- they got their wish. And now their fondness for Raimi's first two Spidey films turned to hatred. All with one subpar sequel.

I think the Marvel Studios films have gotten closer to SM-2 in terms of quality, but I don't think they got there all the way. There's something magical and intangible about SM-2 that's unrivaled. But if The Amazing Spider-Man ends up being half as good, well, I'll be impressed.

I think it's because despite not getting exact character traits right (particularly in Spidey's wisecracking and MJ's....everything) the film does capture the magic, joy and sweetness of Stan Lee's early stories with Ditko and Romita. It just has that simple, but grand appeal.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Cap had it's problems but I felt that Iron Man had just as many if not more. See most of my like of Iron Man depends on RDJ's wacky performance. Those problems got bigger and completely killed the sequel. Never liked Batman Begins as much as people on Hype, that terrible 3rd act and Katie Holmes and Cillain Murphy's bad to awful performances killed it for me. I perfer Spider-Man, Iron Man and Cap over it. (so far I perfer Cap, it's early so I could change my mind for all I know after seeing it on DVD. There is no audience to pump you up when you see a film on DVD)

Just my two cents.

This is a boxoffice thread though so I'll make some predictions that I'll revise because I don't have any weekday numbers:

1. Cowboys and Aliens-- 44mil Opening weekend
2. Captain America--28.6mil-56%
3. Harry Potter 8--23.2mil-49%
4. Smurfs--21mil Opening weekend
5.Crazy Stupid Love--15.5mil Opening weekend

 

[Liam_H]

^Kind of surprise you think Cowboys and Aliens will open that big since it seems the GA thinks its looks silly. Good chance they'll see Captain America instead since its getting good word of mouth.