Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 2

[danoyse]

More like triple bomb. ^

Seriously. I'll stay home and read a book that weekend.

Or see Harry Potter again.

 

[TheIncredibleSk]

Also 150 is kinda cheap now. 175=200M is usually the price with these types of films now.

 

[TheIncredibleSk]

I wouldnt call Marvel's movies safe. Maybe tone wise someone could say that, but I think are Marvel's movies have made some ambitious choices. But really how many blockbusters can one call "not safe"? It's not just superhero movies

I will say however that I wouldnt mind a movie that has a different kind of superhero movie. That's why I really want a Wally West Flash movie.

Thor was such a safe movie. It could have been much more fantastical. They went in and tried not to lose. Thats why its just a OK movie.

 

[danoyse]

People want different things but you are suggesting that Marvel make all their movies like TDK

TDK was a game changer, that doesn't mean I want all my superhero movies to be dark, gritty, realistic, and serious.

Agreed. I thought TDK was brilliant, but if every comic book movie was like that, I would be sick of these movies by now.

I loved Thor, and Captain America. Avengers looks like a blast.

I think we have room for both types of superhero movies.

 

[MadVillainy]

I didnt see it as that safe. Casting a largely unknown actor to play the lead and a largely unknown actor to play the villain in a movie about a character that the general audience dont know much about is pretty risky.

THor was a risky character to pull off

 

[TheIncredibleSk]

I loved Captain America but Marvel is putting out the same type of movies and since were really only getting Marvel now, then they need to try to be more diverse.

 

[MadVillainy]

Agreed. I thought TDK was brilliant, but if every comic book movie was like that, I would be sick of these movies by now.

I loved Thor, and Captain America. Avengers looks like a blast.

I think we have room for both types of superhero movies.

Yesh

 

[TheIncredibleSk]

The Casting was risky but the movie was safe. It was way way too much like Iron Man in tone when it could and should have been more.

 

[TheIncredibleSk]

Marvel is the only one putting out two superhero movies a year. If your gonna do that and DC is doing that. Well somebody needs to be different or were gonna have things like what happened this year. Superhero Movie Fatigue.

 

[MadVillainy]

HOnestly I dont care how "safe" a movie feels. I just care if I enjoy it, which I have with all of the Marvel films except Iron Man 2. The only problem I have with them on the whole is that I wish they were longer.

I dont think the GA cares that they have the same tone either. But Im not completely sure about that

 

[TheIncredibleSk]

I mean I love Captain America and Thor was ok. But They kinda do care since none of these films have broken out of the pack this year. I mean Thor did alright but 3D inflated what it made and Cap will do even less. Theirs a reason for this.

 

[Fanticon]

cap is on track to do very well domestically i think at least as good as thor, this second weekend isn't bad considering the competition. overall i think wom has been positive for it.

 

[DACrowe]

I wouldnt call Marvel's movies safe. Maybe tone wise someone could say that, but I think are Marvel's movies have made some ambitious choices. But really how many blockbusters can one call "not safe"? It's not just superhero movies

I will say however that I wouldnt mind a movie that has a different kind of superhero movie. That's why I really want a Wally West Flash movie.

You're right most blockbusters play it very safe. So the studios try to change the dynamic, visual, gimmick, whatever to make it stand out. However, most superhero movies look inherently similar because they're about colorful characters (usually in masks) beating up bad guys. When Marvel's entire production line looks the same in tone and style, they all start to run together.

 

[DACrowe]

I didnt see it as that safe. Casting a largely unknown actor to play the lead and a largely unknown actor to play the villain in a movie about a character that the general audience dont know much about is pretty risky.

THor was a risky character to pull off

Thor was a risky character to pull off. That is why I tend to think it made sense to play it so safe with him (though less so Captain America and The Avengers, IMO). However, it may have starred an unknown--like Superman, X-Men and relatively Spider-Man did--, but it also starred quite prominently Academy Award Winning Anthony Hopkins and just-now Academy Award Winning Natalie Portman at the peak of her career. It also had familiar faces like Stellan Skarsgard (or "that villain/Mamma Mia guy!") and Kat Dennings.

It wasn't exactly like Marvel wasn't padding the marquee names and well known faces in the margins of the movie.

cap is on track to do very well domestically i think at least as good as thor, this second weekend isn't bad considering the competition. overall i think wom has been positive for it.

I don't think WOM has been very strong at all. A 62 percent drop does not happen if you have good WOM. I overall enjoyed the movie, but it really didn't stand out at all to me beyond a few scenes that played with the period piece setting (most notably the USO montage). I don't think it was nearly as fun or clever as Thor, so while they're very similar movies, the former--with less competition--got a pass for its generics and only saw a 48 percent drop.

 

[Marvin]

My original prediction.

Predictions
Cap will dip much further than Thors 48% this week, due to quality and competition.

Favreau is overrated and his film will open in the 30's despite it's appealing name. I honestly don't think Ford is the major draw Hall H would have us believe. Craig when he's not in bond(especially a good one)....I don't know.

C&A 37 (kinda like super 8)
Smurfs 36 (kinda like Chipmunks and hop)
Cap 29 (thor did 34)
Potter 17 (like the last one)

should be close.

looks like cap dropped even more than I thought it would(62%)

potter didn't drop as bad as last time.

I knew smufs and cowboys would duke it out, never new they would tie respectively between my two numbers though.

I am invinnnncible

 

[PWN3R]

I didnt see it as that safe. Casting a largely unknown actor to play the lead and a largely unknown actor to play the villain in a movie about a character that the general audience dont know much about is pretty risky.

THor was a risky character to pull off

This.

The Casting was risky but the movie was safe. It was way way too much like Iron Man in tone when it could and should have been more.

How was it safe? Maybe I can see some of the Earth stuff, but I mean, I have to give Marvel some respect for keeping Asgard in all its glory, the bitfrost, Frost Giants, the Norse Mythology roots, Heimdall, the goddamn Odin Sleep , etc.

I honestly didn't follow Thor's production as closely as I usually do for these films, but they took a bold concept and did it justice. It could have been much safer like WB's take on Green Lantern.

With GL, some what similar of a risk, you have a hero who operates in an intergalactic realm, and what do they do? 80% of the film takes place on Earth. That's by the numbers safe.

 

[jmc]

Has it? Thor is probably the least known out of all them and is the most financially successful.

But it's not the kind of money that can guarantee you longevity.

 

[jmc]

People want different things but you are suggesting that Marvel make all their movies like TDK

TDK was a game changer, that doesn't mean I want all my superhero movies to be dark, gritty, realistic, and serious.

Bringing TDK in the equation is always misinterpreted by people. TDK is an example of trying to do more with the superhero concept, taking it a step further and trying to expand it to new heights. It's got nothing to do with being gritty or dark, it's the execution and the intent. As was mentioned earlier most comic adaptations are too safe, studios play not to lose rather than play to win, they don't want to offend, they don't want to be controversial, they just want to make easy going films which is fine, but the results are movies that are fairly bland and ultimately forgettable. It's so frustrating seeing how much better the films could be if they just had the balls to do more with it, at the moment there's no desire to play outside a certain area and it makes for poorer films, that's why TDK and even BB is brought into the discussions because they bring to our attention just how much better the films can be be if you just go the extra mile.

 

[rogue trooper]

cap is on track to do very well domestically i think at least as good as thor, this second weekend isn't bad considering the competition. overall i think wom has been positive for it.

A sequel should more than likely be in the bag already.

 

[fallenAngel]

I think playing it "Safe" and matching the tones of the movies was probably a smart move on marvel. Before Iron Man the marvel brand had been painfully inconsistent both with the quality of the movie both as a stand alone and as an adaptation, and in box office performance.

But when you are attempting to set up a movie like the Avengers trying to just establish the characters and not piss off the fan base is probably the primary concern. Also all these characters have to fit into the same believable universe. Trying to put Nolan's batman into a justice league movie with the Green Lantern wouldn't really work. But that isn't what they are trying to do.

Now that the Avengers is finally on the way though, I would like to see Iron Man 3 and any other sequels to start to distinguish themselves more. Even with the first Iron Man which I still love had a certain flatness to it that I had never found in the Super Hero genre to that date.

This year has shown though, especially with Captain America, that it isn't enough to just not have something to hate, you have to have something to love. Something that truly stands out.

 

[rogue trooper]

Seriously. I'll stay home and read a book that weekend.

Or see Harry Potter again.

Well, I for one I'm very much looking foreward to Conan The Barbarian. Now that I've already seen Captain America, Conan is really the only film left of this summer that I'm eager to see.

 

[BestGirl]

I don't think WOM has been very strong at all. A 62 percent drop does not happen if you have good WOM. I overall enjoyed the movie, but it really didn't stand out at all to me beyond a few scenes that played with the period piece setting (most notably the USO montage). I don't think it was nearly as fun or clever as Thor, so while they're very similar movies, the former--with less competition--got a pass for its generics and only saw a 48 percent drop.

At first I was surprised by CA's drop, then I remembered that I'd read a couple of non-fanboy boards and quite a few people who had seen the movie said it was good, but not great. That's how I felt about CA, and pretty much every Marvel movie since IM1. I hope they really pull out the stops for the individual sequels and the Avengers.

 

[CelticPredator]

They need to make Deadpool...stat. It's the most different of the Marvel flick's. If they go by the script.

 

[BestGirl]

They need to make Deadpool...stat. It's the most different of the Marvel flick's. If they go by the script.

Doesn't Fox own the rights to Deadpool?

 

[CelticPredator]

Yeah. I said Marvel movie. The GA lumps them all together.