Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 2

[jmc]

Lmao
I'm just confused what youre talking about. "Blinkers"? Did you mean "Blinders"?

different word same meaning

Anyway, you just keep saying that less superhero movies will be better for the audience but you dont use evidence to back it up. Even if youre speculating you have to have at least some evidence to back up youre point.
ANd from what I've seen and heard people arent tired of the superhero film genre. In fact superhero films are often some of the most anticipated movies of the year. The evidence for my side is there, if it's fun or good people will go see it.

Oh come on you know very well there's been plenty of complaints each time a new superhero film has been released. And more of them will only intensify the animosity toward them especially when they're not doing much to differentiate each other.

 

[Marvin]

That's what Im saying Ive only really heard it with the "whole hero starts off arrogant/cocky story line the studios are hip too" like Green Lantern and Green Hornet. And I agree they need to chill out with those types, but there are still other heroes out there

I really havent heard "theyre too many superhero movies" from any GA type people. I really just think people want to have fun at the movies

Iron man and Thor were built around this 1 and done character ark as well.

 

[Tony Stark]

So much for superhero burnout. Cap is taking out Potter, and depending on Saturday and Sunday, may have a chance at 70 million.

 

[The Morningstar]

I was like many of you a few years ago with being all excited about all these movies coming out, now my opinion has changed, too many superheroes is not a good thing and taking a break is not only good for the genre it's good for the audience. Too many will cannibalize the genre.

Too many BAD superhero movies, like GL, is not a good thing.

Good movies are good movies, whatever the genre. Keep em coming.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm glad that Cap is looking to open at number one. Potter isn't dropping off the face of the earth because the fans didn't like it, I'm sure they loved it, it's dropping hard because the franchise is frontloaded and once it got the opening weekend record it had no choice but to fall hard. I was a little surprised that some sites were predicting the movie to get close to or pass record for the biggest second weekend, especially with Cap coming out. I mean I understand like, 65mil but 74 and 76mil...yeah that was always a pipe dream.

WB is sitting pretty because this flick will easily make over 1bil worldwide but this is the first film with the opening weekend record thats not going to be number one two weeks in a row and it's the first film with the opening weekend record that only did it because of higher ticket prices. Amazing numbers all the same but not as amazing when you look underneath the headlines.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I can't believe Cap is going to overtake Potter. I love it

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

^I didn't know if Cap was going to do but the early numbers are saying that it will and that does make me happy.

 

[:eek:]

Early estimates has a 72% drop for Harry Potter. So it obviously fails to attract many (if any) outside the fanbase the Potter-series have.

 

[Marvin]

The percentage may be higher, which is un-heard of.
Pretty much what happens when a film that's front loaded in nature breaks an opening record.

A lot of fans week one, causal people not sure what to do with it by week 3.

 

[Donut]

Early estimates has a 72% drop for Harry Potter. So it obviously fails to attract many (if any) outside the fanbase the Potter-series have.

That happens to any popular franchises. It will have legs in the long run. The same will happen to The Dark Knight Rises & The Amazing Spider-Man next summer

 

[terry78]

I had a feeling Cap was gonna hit the top slot. Potter is like Twilight in that sense...everyone that's all mad crazy about it will go within the first few days. Others may go see it during the week as a lark or whatever.

 

[Liam_H]

That happens to any popular franchises. It will have legs in the long run. The same will happen to The Dark Knight Rises & The Amazing Spider-Man next summer

If somehow TDKR or ASM happen to open this big, they would not drop this hard because those movies don't really require you to have seen any of the previous movies. Even if people told others that Potter was really good it doesn't mean they'll go see it cause chances are they may not have seen the last few movies. They'll just be lost.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Remember when I said Superhero fatigue was a myth and a media plant?

I love that I'm right about that.

 

[Thebumwhowalks]

Remember when I said Superhero fatigue was a myth and a media plant?

I love that I'm right about that.

I was reading an interview with Kevin Feige in today's Guardian newspaper, and as he said, folk were talking about 'superhero fatigue' setting in back in 2002.

Comic books, which deal in the same subject matter, and are a niche interest even within geek culture, have outlived everything from the onset of television, the comics code censorship, and sfx in movies improving, did you really think the first wave of good movies based on those stories had any chance whatsoever of dying off?

If you did think there was a good chance of them dying off, then that's a little silly, and if you didn't, well, why are you so proud of an obvious prediction?

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

^ Because I want to. Got a problem with that? Either way, I don't really care if you do or don't.

 

[Anita18]

That happens to any popular franchises. It will have legs in the long run. The same will happen to The Dark Knight Rises & The Amazing Spider-Man next summer

Not really. TDK only fell 52%, which is kind of amazing considering it had the biggest OW at that time to begin with. Usually the bigger they are, the harder they fall...

Despite the opinion here, there isn't as much of a devoted fanbase with either TDKR or ASM who'll rush to see both movies opening weekend. The audience for both Harry Potter and Twilight consists mostly of hardcore fans of the books, a limited group who'll see it opening weekend. Hence the huge drops afterwards. TDKR and ASM will be popular among the general audience too, so they wouldn't drop nearly as hard as Harry Potter just did.

Anyways, glad to hear Cap didn't get steamrolled by Potter after all. I don't think WB is crying over their cornflakes over Harry Potter, it's all just piles of money at this point and they're raking it in overseas anyway.

 

[lime]

Yeah but it is really important what kind of competition you will have the next week. Captain America is very tough competition, and I doubt WB will give mutch damn if they loose the week in US. They still will dominated at the foreign box office.

 

[Doctor Jones]

Remember when I said Superhero fatigue was a myth and a media plant?

I love that I'm right about that.

I love the fact that all of the pre Avengers Marvel films have all opened to number one now. Cap isn't confirmed, but it looks like it.

 

[rashad]

#Potter falls 72% this wknd to $48.1M. Huge $274.2M total in 10 days: 2nd best alltime after DarkKnight's $313.8M

http://***********/#!/giteshpandya

 

[MadVillainy]

I have a stupid question of box office reports. The reports that come out on Sunday arent final weekend numbers right?

ANyway

In a battle of summer movie heroes, Captain America topped Harry Potter this weekend at the box office.

Sunday studio estimates show Paramount's "Captain America: The First Avenger" opened at No. 1 with $65.8 million. The Marvel Comics superhero movie sets up next summer's all-star blockbuster "The Avengers."

Warner Bros.' "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2," the eighth and final part in the boy-wizard franchise, dropped to the second spot. It made just over $48 million in its second weekend for a domestic total of $274.1 million.

The week's other big release, Sony's "Friends With Benefits," opened at No. 3 with $18.5 million. The romantic comedy stars Justin Timberlake and Mila Kunis as friends who try to maintain a strictly physical relationship.
http://abcnews.go.com/Entertainment/wireStory?id=14147511

 

[chaseter]

$65 million is just ok for a big budget superhero movie. All of these superhero movies fail to compare to what Batman, Spider-Man, and Iron Man bring in.

I don't think anybody sane was predicting Cap getting absolutely squashed by Potter.

 

[Iron_Stark]

$65 million is just ok for a big budget superhero movie. All of these superhero movies fail to compare to what Batman, Spider-Man, and Iron Man bring in.

I don't think anybody sane was predicting Cap getting absolutely squashed by Potter.

I was predicting for Cap to get the #2 spot myself, the only beef I had was when people kept saying superhero fatigue was setting in and Cap was going to be D.O.A.

 

[chaseter]

Well I mean superhero fatigue could still exist. No superhero movie this year did really great. They all just did alright.

 

[rashad]

I have a stupid question of box office reports. The reports that come out on Sunday arent final weekend numbers right?

ANyway

No. Weekend numbers are estimated. The actuals are posted the following Monday.

 

[Iron_Stark]

When you put it as a whole, apart from the movies you mentioned, superhero movies don't really do big time numbers.

Now if we had 2-3 GL type movies come out (critics and BO performance) then yeah, I'd buy into the superhero fatigue myth.