Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 2

[terry78]

I'm curious to see how next month fares. Apes might do some decent business, and I already know Final Destination will clean up, as it always does.

 

[DACrowe]

The fatigue seems to be there a bit as none of the superhero movies this year will cross $200 million domestic, much less come in the realm of Batman and Spider-Man. And before someone says it is only well known brands, Iron Man plays in those big box office numbers. Also, X-Men: First Class is part of a popular brand name and while a great movie, is not going to cross $150 million domestic. Thor and Captain America did respectable, but after GL's bomb, this doesn't really make WB more likely to greenlight more non-Bats/Supes characters if they think they can't top $180 million domestic.

I think the success of the Spider-Man reboot will be very interesting. If it is a hit, who knows how far this genre will go. If it bombs and shows that audiences aren't ready to see another Spidey, much less Spidey origin, again then non-Marvel Studios Hollywood may start drifting away from the genre.

Also, genre fatigue does happen--ask westerns, musicals or even just the WWII war movies and swords and sandals epics that were everywhere ten years ago.

 

[rashad]

giteshpandya Gitesh Pandya
Giant $121.3M intl wknd for HP8, down 61%. $560.4M overseas & $834.6M global. China to open Aug4. Easy billion here.

 

[Iron_Stark]

The fatigue seems to be there a bit as none of the superhero movies this year will cross $200 million domestic, much less come in the realm of Batman and Spider-Man. And before someone says it is only well known brands, Iron Man plays in those big box office numbers. Also, X-Men: First Class is part of a popular brand name and while a great movie, is not going to cross $150 million domestic. Thor and Captain America did respectable, but after GL's bomb, this doesn't really make WB more likely to greenlight more non-Bats/Supes characters if they think they can't top $180 million domestic.

I think the success of the Spider-Man reboot will be very interesting. If it is a hit, who knows how far this genre will go. If it bombs and shows that audiences aren't ready to see another Spidey, much less Spidey origin, again then non-Marvel Studios Hollywood may start drifting away from the genre.

Also, genre fatigue does happen--ask westerns, musicals or even just the WWII war movies and swords and sandals epics that were everywhere ten years ago.

Batman Begins, Superman Returns and X-Men 2 all had a tough time getting to and crossing 200 million. X-Men 3 did cross it but that was really coming off the hype of part 2, even then it didn't really do more than 2.

Superhero movies getting to 200 isn't a common occurrence, getting to 300 is damn near impossible.

 

[Marvin]

Potter is on a crazy international pace, it might hit 1bill in a few days.

 

[LostSon88]

Early estimates has a 72% drop for Harry Potter. So it obviously fails to attract many (if any) outside the fanbase the Potter-series have.

Why would it? I mean this is the 8th movie of the franchise. Obviously of you aren't a fan up to this point, clearly you'll have no interest in seeing this film.

That's like trying to persuade someone to watch ROTJ or ROTK even though they haven't seen any of the past movies.

 

[Electrix]

Domestic: $274,182,000 32.9%
+ Foreign: $560,400,000 67.1%
= Worldwide: $834,582,000

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=harrypotter72.htm

Somehow I don't see Warner Bros. caring that much about being #2 in the US this weekend.

 

[LostSon88]

Nah, I'm pretty sure they're pissed, lol.

 

[Electrix]

$834 million in 10 days is crazy. It'll hit $1billion sometime next week.

 

[rashad]

Domestic: $274,182,000 32.9%
+ Foreign: $560,400,000 67.1%
= Worldwide: $834,582,000

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=harrypotter72.htm

Somehow I don't see Warner Bros. caring that much about being #2 in the US this weekend.

It'll be over a billion after next Sunday. Should pass up TF3 domestically soon too.

 

[Liam_H]

Nah, I'm pretty sure they're pissed, lol.

Of course they're pissed they haven't earned their 2nd billion yet.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

The fatigue seems to be there a bit as none of the superhero movies this year will cross $200 million domestic, much less come in the realm of Batman and Spider-Man. And before someone says it is only well known brands, Iron Man plays in those big box office numbers. Also, X-Men: First Class is part of a popular brand name and while a great movie, is not going to cross $150 million domestic. Thor and Captain America did respectable, but after GL's bomb, this doesn't really make WB more likely to greenlight more non-Bats/Supes characters if they think they can't top $180 million domestic.

I think the success of the Spider-Man reboot will be very interesting. If it is a hit, who knows how far this genre will go. If it bombs and shows that audiences aren't ready to see another Spidey, much less Spidey origin, again then non-Marvel Studios Hollywood may start drifting away from the genre.

Also, genre fatigue does happen--ask westerns, musicals or even just the WWII war movies and swords and sandals epics that were everywhere ten years ago.

But Iron Man was the exception. I didn't expect X-men FC or Thor to make over 200 million, but I did for GL. Cap, I believe would struggle because of Harry Potter, and I believe Harry Potter still took a bit out of Cap's OW.

 

[danoyse]

But Iron Man was the exception. I didn't expect X-men FC or Thor to make over 200 million, but I did for GL. Cap, I believe would struggle because of Harry Potter, and I believe Harry Potter still took a bit out of Cap's OW.

I saw Harry Potter again on Friday, and Captain America this morning. Both shows looked like they were having healthy sellouts at both theaters I went to.

Glad Cap had such a good weekend, it was really good.

 

[JP]

It certainly was. I like when quality movies open up at theaters.

 

[rashad]

Box Office Report: 'Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2' Braves a 61 Percent Drop; Still No. 1 Overseas
3:22 PM 7/24/2011 by Frank Segers

'Captain America: The First Avenger' opens to $2.8 million in Italy; 'Deathly Hallows Part 2' bests No. 2 competitor overseas by nearly $60 million.

Hey, give Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2 a break.
Sure, the Warner Bros. smash took a 61% box office drop on the foreign theatrical circuit over the weekend. But the concluding Harry Potter installment still emerged the resounding No. 1 offshore title, besting its closest competitor by nearly a $60-million margin.

Weekend take for Deathly Hallows – Part 2 came to $121.3 million from some 19,200 screens in 59 territories compared to the record $312.3 million opening the weekend before at some 20,000 venues in the same number of markets. That’s called a moderate fall from an extraordinarily high box office perch.

In just a dozen days of foreign release, Deathly Hallows – Part 2 has accumulated total foreign gross of $560.4 million, which is more than double the sequel’s $274.2 million domestic tally so far. The worldwide box office gross total for all eight titles in the Harry Potter franchise now stands at more than $7.2 billion.

Ranking No. 1 in virtually all foreign markets, Deathly Hallows – Part 2 came away with these weekend takes: in the U.K ($14.3 million for a market cume of $71.1 million); Germany ($12.7 million, cume $47.3 million); and in France ($11.7 million, cume $42 million).

Warner’s said that grosses in Scandinavia were robust “despite the horrible events in Norway.” Records for the distributor were set in Latin America, Russia and in Mexico. An opening in China is due Aug. 4.

Paramount’s Captain America:The First Avenger, which opened No. 1 in North America, dipped its toes in international waters over the weekend with an Italy premier. Friday-to-Sunday gross came in at $2.8 million from 327 locations.

Debuts in 23 markets including the U.K., Russia, Mexico, Brazil, Australia and South Korea are due this week. (In Korea, Russia and the Ukraine, the comic-book movie adaptation starring Chris Evans will play off under the title The First Avenger, said the distributor.)

Finishing No. 2 was Transformers: Dark of the Moon, which is now the “all-time biggest grossing movie ever distributed by Paramount Pictures International,” said the distributor. Weekend take was $62 million from 12,554 venues in 60 markets, lifting the foreign box office total over four rounds to $556.6 million.

Paramount said director Michael Bay’s 3D action extravaganza set a China opening record for an American title with an estimated three-day debut of $40 million, beating the comparable market opening 20th Century Fox Avatar by 72%.

Dark of the Moon bows in Japan this coming Friday.
Third on the weekend was Pixar/Disney’s Cars 2, which registered $17.7 million in its fifth round on the foreign theatrical circuit, hoisting is overseas cume to $173.7 million and its worldwide take to $350.1 million – just about evenly spit between domestic and offshore action.

A U.K. debut for the 3D animation about talking autos produced $6.1 million from an unspecified number of locations. Disney said the market debut was 25% better than the comparable market bow of DreamWorks Animation’s Kung Fu Panda 2. Foreign box office for Cars 2 overall should spurt this week thanks to openings in France, Germany and Japan.
No. 4 on the weekend was 20th Century Fox’s Mr. Popper’s Penguins, which collected $11.9 million from 3,877 situations in 46 markets. No. 2 openings were recorded in France ($2.76 million from 444 sites), Mexico ($2.4 million from 692 spots) and in Spain ($1.26 million from 358 locations). Overseas total take so far for the Jim Carrey comedy comes to $57.2 million.

Openings in 19 territories, including No. 2 bows in Russia, the Ukraine, Venezuela and the United Arab Emirates, pushed the weekend gross for Zookeeper to $9 million from a total of 2,325 locations in 35 markets, enough for a No. 5 weekend finish. The talking animals comedy starring Kevin James has grossed a total of $28.8 million since opening overseas on July 6.


DreamWorks Animation’s Kung Fu Panda 2 drew $8.3 million on the weekend from 4,165 venues in 58 territories, hoisting its overseas cume to $437.2 million. The 3D animation distributed by Paramount opened at 42 sites in Hong for debut tally of $1.6 million or more than a $37,000 average per screen.

Bridesmaids, which has grossed more than $160 million in the U.S. and Canada, continues to chug along on the foreign circuit. Weekend tally from 1,905 sites in 33 territories came to $7.9 million, pushing the foreign gross total to $70.7 million. Universal’s female-oriented comedy opened No. 2 in Sweden, No. 3 in Austria and No. 4 in Germany ($2.1 million from 414 locations). Poland debuts this week.

Also grabbing an estimated $7.9 million weekend, from 2,204 screens in 32 markets, take was Bad Teacher, Sony’s comedy starring Cameron Diaz. A No. 2 Australia opening provided $3.2 million from 242 screens. Overseas cume since a June 17 offshore bow stands at $70.2 million.

Fox International Productions’ Assalto Ao Banco Central opened to $2.5 million from 305 screens in Brazil. In its fourth round on the foreign circuit, Summit Int’l.’s Larry Crowne costarring Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts snared an estimated $2.2 million on the weekend, playing some 1,300 locations in 20 countries. Overseas cume so far is $16.8 million.

Ranking No. 3 in France was Mars Distribution’s Case Depart, about the antics of a pair of half brothers. Third round at some 400 screens generated $2.1 million for a market cume of $10.4 million. Finishing No. 4 was Pathe’s Les Tuches (The Tuches), a comedy about a slacker family hitting the lottery, which grossed $1.4 million in its fourth stanza at 429 sites for a market cume of $9.5 million.

Other international cumes: Disney’s Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, $794.6 million (worldwide, $1.032 billion); Fox’s Black Swan, $222.4 million; Universal’s Hop, $74.3 million; Mars Distribution’s Midnight in Paris, $15.5 million over 11 rounds in France only; Fox’s Water For Elephants, $58.1 million; Universal’s Paul, $57 million; Europa’s Tree of Life, $7 million over 11 stanzas in France only; Universal’s Fast Five, $394.3 million; Fox’s X-Men: First Class, $205 million; and Universal’s Beginners, $1.8 million in the U.K., Germany and Spain only.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-report-harry-potter-214772

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

I'm suprised Harry Potter isn't really sustaining a domestic audience this week.

Not that it needs them.

 

[chaseter]

Everyone went and saw it last week. If it made $150 last weekend and $68 million this weekend (which is the exact same amount it made $171 first weekend and $48 this weekend) it would have a 54% drop and everyone would be saying it has fantastic legs. It's hard for a movie to make that much and have amazing legs. It was hugely front loaded...that's not a bad thing. It was an event movie.

 

[JP]

It's just a fact of life. The bigger they are the harder they fall. There is absolutely nothing bad about Potters performance this weekend. Nothing.

 

[Marvin]

Last time I checked Potter also had the widest release ever, at home and abroad. As much as that helps your first weekend it also hurts your numbers come week two.

Who new china had such a ready market, I mean for TF3 to do 40mill in 3 days, that may as well have been a domestic number for a lesser film.

Who'd have thought Fast5 would be one of the top dogs this year.

 

[:eek:]

When it comes to attendance it looks like Captain America was behind movies like Fantastic Four:

In terms of estimated attendance, Captain America's first weekend was slightly ahead of G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra and Watchmen but, among past July Marvel Comics kick-offs, it trailed Fantastic Four and X-Men by sizable margins. Distributor Paramount Pictures' exit polling indicated that 64 percent of Captain's crowd was male (about the same as Thor) and 58 percent was 25 years of age and older (skewing younger than Thor's 72 percent).

So maybe you can say there's a little super hero fatigue. It just doesn't looks like it thanks to higher ticket prices

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I'm not calling it that because I still think Harry Potter made a lot less than it should've made in its second week.

 

[Liam_H]

When it comes to attendance it looks like Captain America was behind movies like Fantastic Four:



So maybe you can say there's a little super hero fatigue. It just doesn't looks like it thanks to higher ticket prices

In general all types of movies are selling less tickets than they were a couple of years ago. Not just superhero movies. But it seems like audiences are going to movies slightly less than a few years ago.

 

[Marvin]

complain about inflation and 3D surcharges but the evidence seems to indicate that such things have saved the industry...in face anyways.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Cap's attendance according to the article was up 9% over Thor's attendance, since Thor had more 3D screens and IMAX than Cap did.

 

[mclay18]

By how good CA is, I expect it to have better legs than Thor or XFC. Captain America is the most recognized Marvel superhero (outside of box office juggernauts Spidey and IM), and the overall impression I got from audience members when they left was more positive than Thor.

Still, it's pretty good for a Chris Evans movie outside of Fantastic Four.