Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 2

[akfj]

X-Men made $157 million in 2000. Spider-Man made $403 million less than a year later. I would say that Spider-Man had more of an affect on the superhero genre than X-Men did and X-Men certainly did not affect Spider-Man.

Spider-Man came out in 2002, not 2001. The biggest effect X-Men had on Spider-Man is that Spider-Man's budget was increased due to the success of X-Men.

 

[chaseter]

I am sorry you are correct. It was originally to come out in 2001.

But again, I don't think X-Men had any effect on Spider-Man. X-Men making $157 million wouldn't be grounds for upping Spider-Man's budget to nearly that. There wouldn't be hardly any profit in it if Sony expected near same numbers that Fox got. Sony gave Spider-Man a huge budget at the time and they made a big summer superhero movie and it paid off. It broke records. It made a crapload of cash.

 

[akfj]

Well, the budget increase being due to X-Men was what was reported at the time. X-Men doubled its budget, and I suppose Sony could've been thinking that if they put more into it they could get more out of it.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Early word is Cowboys & Aliens is under-performing even below the studio's lowest estimates.

Hey...between Potter and Cap, something was going to get lost in the shuffle.

 

[Donut]

Early word is Cowboys & Aliens is under-performing even below the studio's lowest estimates.

Hey...between Potter and Cap, something was going to get lost in the shuffle.

I also think The Avengers Teaser must be helping the MARVEL movies. Its a dream come true that movie

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

What was the studio expecting? Because I was expecting the movie to underperform this weekend. As I said, I wouldn't be surprised if it opened with less than Super 8. The marketing was terrible so any somewhat big opening they get is a godsend.

EDIT:

Just looked at Deadline hollywood. 40mil wouldn't be underperforming to me as I predicted 39mil. I just hope that Cap avoids a 60% drop.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Avengers teaser isn't helping. The good marketing for both Thor and Captain America (and both movies being good and thus good word-of-mouth) is what's helping the Marvel Studios movies.

 

[Donut]

Avengers teaser isn't helping. The good marketing for both Thor and Captain America (and both movies being good and thus good word-of-mouth) is what's helping the Marvel Studios movies.

But Thor made more money this past weekend. That could be due to people that did not see Thor (for whatever reason) but saw Captain America & The Avengers Teaser ? & then decided to see Thor ?

 

[kedrell]

I'm sure the whole interconnected universe deal is having an effect. I'm just not sure if there's any way to quantify what that effect is. It's the kind of thing that only time can tell.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

There's always little surges during the second-run (dollar-theater) life of these big movies. You've giving way too much credit to The Avengers there.

 

[chaseter]

What are the estimates for C&A this weekend? Profession estimates...I don't know what site is best for tracking.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Boxoffice prophets: Prediction 46.8mil
Box office Guru: 40mil
Box office Mojo: 36mil

Boxoffice prophets is a s**tty website that is almost always dead wrong, especially when it comes to the holdovers (Cap has 0 chance of doing 40mil, more like 27 to 30mil)

Boxoffice Guru makes really strong predictions most of the time and so does Boxoffice mojo.

Basically most think it's going to open with about 40mil. We will see what happens when the numbers come out tomorrow.

 

[amazingfantasy15]

Early word is Cowboys & Aliens is under-performing even below the studio's lowest estimates.

Hey...between Potter and Cap, something was going to get lost in the shuffle.

Well Cowboys & Aliens is getting ripped apart by the critics, probably not going to help it's box office.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I know that lackluster trailers and the reviews killed my interest for it. 80% of my interest was lost because of the lackluster trailers.

I'll probably go see Captain America for a 3rd time.

 

[JP]

Guru is usually on point with their predictions.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

^Yep.

 

[Thebumwhowalks]

Well, the budget increase being due to X-Men was what was reported at the time. X-Men doubled its budget, and I suppose Sony could've been thinking that if they put more into it they could get more out of it.

Aye, that was exactly it, before I had net access I used to keep up with movie news on the BBC Ceefax service, and distinctly recall reading that Sony had given them another year to make Spider-man in order to make it more ambitious. X-Men's surprise success must have had something to do with that, they would be thinking if such an unknown superhero brand could do so well, Spider-man was guaranteed major success, so why not make it a bigger movie to give it more legs at the BO?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm so sick of this godforsaken converstation. I wish we could just get back to talking about the 2011 boxoffice.

 

[Thebumwhowalks]

There are reports coming in of an 80% drop in interest in the x-men/spider-man conversation, although 3D ticket sales may mean a 40% boost if it has legs that may mean it will do gangbusters at the overseas market as long as the domestic box office doesn't drop any more than 30%, as has been the usual type of thing for a non-brand commercial blockbuster movie, as compared to last years July openings at this time of year last year, and the year before that, although 3D tickets were not as prevalent then, so if the amount of people who care equals the amount of people who don't give a crap, we should see an evening out of evening outs at the cinema this year.

 

[JP]

Agreed with I See Spidey. Geez.

At this point it's obvious Cap will outdo Thor. Whether it reaches $200m remains to be seen, but I think it's possible.

 

[Marvin]

I'm so sick of this godforsaken converstation. I wish we could just get back to talking about the 2011 boxoffice.

Xmen was so good it spawned Xmen 2 lol.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I'm so sick of this godforsaken converstation. I wish we could just get back to talking about the 2011 boxoffice.

I agree.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Avengers teaser isn't helping. The good marketing for both Thor and Captain America (and both movies being good and thus good word-of-mouth) is what's helping the Marvel Studios movies.

Exactly. People complained about the marketing for the Marvel Studios movies, but I felt both did pretty well in marketing.

C&A just doesn't look like it has the liveliness of Favreau's past movies.

 

[Donut]

Xmen was so good it spawned Xmen 2 lol.

But then we got X3 lol

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Exactly. People complained about the marketing for the Marvel Studios movies, but I felt both did pretty well in marketing.

C&A just doesn't look like it has the liveliness of Favreau's past movies.

I was really looking forward to Cowboys and Aliens untill about three weeks ago. I realized that the trailers actually don't have much of interest in them and they look uber dark and serious for a summer romp. Now I'm fine if the uber dark and serious film looks like say, Inception, but Aliens didn't look half as good as that film and that goofy name mixed up with the uber serious trailers doesn't work at all.

It's a disappointing thing to lose all interest in a film a few weeks out but thats what happened to me. Universal never knew how to market this damn thing and unfortunately for them the movie obviously cost over 150mil to make so...yeah a 40mil opening weekend won't do unless it has legs. I doubt it's legs are great.

Universal is cursed. They should think their lucky stars for Bridesmaids and Fast Five.