Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 2

[Liam_H]

So I think Change-Up will beat Apes at the theatre and that is a stretch since it's R-Rated but I mean I still hear nothing but laughs when people see the trailer for it before movies.

People laugh at anything shown before a movie, its never the best indicator.

 

[jacobed]

Uh i hope not. The Change Up looks absolutely awful. It is a rated r Freaky Friday with 2 actors that im sick of.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

My predictions:

1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes-- 33mil
2. The Change Up--22mil (hope this terrible looking film bombs)
3. Smurfs--19.6mil-45%
4. Cowboys And Aliens--15.7mil-57%
5. Captain America--12.9mil-49%

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Uh i hope not. The Change Up looks absolutely awful. It is a rated r Freaky Friday with 2 actors that im sick of.

I can understand Ryan Renolds but why Jason Bateman too? He's pretty funny to me.

 

[marvelman2006]

There is no way planets of the apes doesnt take the number 1 spot. The change up preview kinda ticked me off because that whole story has been told so many times and never tries to offer anything new or maybe rewrite the formula a bit and they felt the need to spell it out for people who were to dumb to get that bateman and reynolds swicth places. It might have been worth a rental from netflix if they paired reynolds with say rob schneider or someone not as good looking as reynolds so when the "switch" comes it feels more horrible.

 

[DACrowe]

I can't believe ROTPOTA is getting good reviews. It still looks ridiculous and will not open above $35 million, in my opinion.

 

[The Morningstar]

I can understand Ryan Renolds but why Jason Bateman too? He's pretty funny to me.

Bateman is awesome. He should be Hank Pym if Marvel ever get round to doing Ant Man.

 

[rashad]

Friday Estimates
http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

1 - Rise of the Planet of the Apes Fox $19,750,000 - - 3,648 $5,414 $19,750,000 1
2 1 The Smurfs Sony $5,950,000 +45% -55% 3,395 $1,753 $61,152,000 8
3 2 Cowboys & Aliens Uni. $4,749,000 +51% -64% 3,754 $1,265 $56,369,000 8
4 - The Change-Up Uni. $4,748,000 - - 2,913 $1,630 $4,748,000 1
5 3 Captain America: The First Avenger Par. $3,751,000 +38% -52% 3,620 $1,036 $133,933,000 15
6 5 Crazy, Stupid, Love. WB $3,725,000 +55% -43% 3,020 $1,233 $33,810,000 8
7 4 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 WB $3,385,000 +29% -48% 3,175 $1,066 $334,026,000 22
8 6 Friends with Benefits SGem $1,475,000 +25% -54% 2,398 $615 $45,313,000 15
9 7 Horrible Bosses WB (NL) $1,345,000 +43% -39% 2,025 $664 $101,887,000 29
10 8 Transformers: Dark of the Moon P/DW $837,000 +16% -53% 1,854 $451 $341,995,000 38
11 9 Zookeeper Sony $650,000 +5% -54% 1,724 $377 $72,095,000 29
12 10 Cars 2 BV $300,000 -14% -57% 926 $324 $183,884,000 43

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

The problem with the change-up is that it is a tired concept in comparison to the other rated-R comedies released this summer (To those who say the Hangover, it's not a tired concept... at least not yet.)

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I can't believe ROTPOTA is getting good reviews. It still looks ridiculous and will not open above $35 million, in my opinion.

Hindsight is a b***h.

To be honest, I didn't expect it to get good reviews either. If I wasn't flat broke, I would go see it. Color me surprised.

 

[Liam_H]

The problem with the change-up is that it is a tired concept in comparison to the other rated-R comedies released this summer (To those who say the Hangover, it's not a tired concept... at least not yet.)

I wouldn't really say the hangover is a tired concept. Because what made the first movie so fun was the mystery of what happened. The 2nd one was the same so there was no mystery, we'd seen it already. They just have to come up with different ways of how they go about it to make it exciting.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

My predictions:
2. The Change Up--22mil (hope this terrible looking film bombs)

Well it looks like you're going to get that wish.

Also, Ryan Renolds will be in 2 flops this summer. His career is going to be fading quickly.

 

[Liam_H]

^Not really. He's still getting work. This isn't like a Brandon Routh situation who wasn't an established actor before he got the part.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Well, I mean fading from leading hollywood man. Two flops in one summer never bodes well for an actor.

 

[MadVillainy]

But the thing is he has other leading roles lined up. I mean if GL flopped he still had CHange Up, if that flopped he has Safe House with Denzel Washington, if that flops he has RIPD.

I said before his career might not move forward because of this summer but I dont think it'll take a major blow because of it either

 

[Liam_H]

^@Parker Wayne
Well its certainly a blow to the fact he won't become an A-list star leading man. But this certainly isn't a situation where studios will be reluctant to cast him, not like say Tom Cruise a few years back. Yea, that's an extreme scenario but its all I could think of on the fly.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Okay I may have been exaggerating.

 

[JP]

Sigh. No surprise with the Change-Up. I remember seeing the trailer for the first time in theaters and cringing at the mere fact that it was a body-switch movie.

 

[Doctor Jones]

I am really surprised Apes is getting good reviews and is apparently going to do well this weekend.

It didn't look interesting to me at all.

 

[Marvin]

the ape movie is brilliant
go watch it.

 

[MARVEL ROCKS]

OMG!! This movie was awesome. It beats all other movies this summer. Might be Fox's best summer movie in ages. It's good to see this movie succeeding at the boxoffice. Too bad the other fox prequel/reboot that released in June was a boxoffice disappointment.......Matthew Vaughn is cursed.


This was a very risky movie and I am suprised it costed only $93 million to produce!! Easily will make that back domestically and more. $300+ million worldwide is locked. This has much higher chance of getting a sequel than x-men:fc that barely made back its budget domestically.


Overall, I was very satisfied with this movie. Fox had a great summer critically. Financially, this is their only "true" boxoffice hit.

 

[rashad]

Weekend Estimates (Aug 5-7)
http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2011&wknd=31&p=.htm

1 N Rise of the Planet of the Apes Fox $54,000,000 - 3,648 - $14,803 $54,000,000 $93 1
2 2 The Smurfs Sony $21,000,000 -41.0% 3,395 - $6,186 $76,202,000 $110 2
3 1 Cowboys & Aliens Uni. $15,748,000 -56.8% 3,754 +4 $4,195 $67,368,000 $163 2
4 N The Change-Up Uni. $13,502,000 - 2,913 - $4,635 $13,502,000 $52 1
5 3 Captain America: The First Avenger Par. $13,000,000 -49.1% 3,620 -95 $3,591 $143,182,000 $140 3
6 4 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 WB $12,160,000 -44.7% 3,175 -970 $3,830 $342,801,000 - 4
7 5 Crazy, Stupid, Love. WB $12,100,000 -36.7% 3,020 - $4,007 $42,185,000 $50 2
8 6 Friends with Benefits SGem $4,700,000 -49.3% 2,398 -528 $1,960 $48,538,000 $35 3
9 7 Horrible Bosses WB (NL) $4,620,000 -35.7% 2,025 -485 $2,281 $105,162,000 $35 5
10 8 Transformers: Dark of the Moon P/DW $3,015,000 -50.5% 1,854 -750 $1,626 $344,173,000 $195 6
11 9 Zookeeper Sony $2,150,000 -50.0% 1,724 -694 $1,247 $73,595,000 $80 5
12 10 Cars 2 BV $1,135,000 -51.7% 926 -837 $1,226 $184,719,000 $200 7

 

[akfj]

OMG!! This movie was awesome. It beats all other movies this summer. Might be Fox's best summer movie in ages. It's good to see this movie succeeding at the boxoffice. Too bad the other fox prequel/reboot that released in June was a boxoffice disappointment.......Matthew Vaughn is cursed.


This was a very risky movie and I am suprised it costed only $93 million to produce!! Easily will make that back domestically and more. $300+ million worldwide is locked. This has much higher chance of getting a sequel than x-men:fc that barely made back its budget domestically.

You're unbelievable.

 

[Electrix]

OMG!! This movie was awesome. It beats all other movies this summer. Might be Fox's best summer movie in ages. It's good to see this movie succeeding at the boxoffice. Too bad the other fox prequel/reboot that released in June was a boxoffice disappointment.......Matthew Vaughn is cursed.

Plenty of studios will want 'cursed' directors if their movies make $350 million worldwide.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Captain America is pretty close to otugrossing First Class domestically now. Are WW estimates out yet?