Summer 2011 box office predictions

[ALP]

Despite First Class being a good movie, I think audiences may be fatigued because of Wolverine being so abysmal and they are not familiar with any of the characters outside of Magneto and Prof X.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I haven't seen First Class yet so I'm not judging it as a film. But what the critics (and I love) don't always mean that the audience at large will love the film. We will have to wait and see like we do with all films.

 

[marvelman2006]

Saw first class tonight and it deserves every penny it makes this weekend. Michael fassenbender is so damn good in this role and in some ways better then ian mckellen. I hope it finally helps matthew vaughn breakthrough.

 

[TheIncredibleSk]

Captain Ameroca is gonna be a huge hit. Even with HP8 on its back. I expect 700 million WW. It's gonna be huge in the states and I think it can get the America stigma off its back in the countries that count.

 

[dark_b]

Super 8 is gonna bomb well at least perform under expectations. Should have showed the monster. That 80's type of trailers dont work anymore.

i disagree. if you need to f... spoil the movie to make money then you made a bad movie. if the movie is good word of mouth will be positive and it will make money.

 

[DACrowe]

http://www.deadline.com/2011/06/fir...ing-3-3m-midnights-for-estimated-58m-weekend/

XFC looks like it's doing around $58 million this weekend...about what most of us predicted which is still around $10 million more than I thought it would do two weeks ago before the reviews started pouring in. Pretty solid for a semi-reboot after two lackluster films. The drops next weekend will be interesting.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm pretty sure I'm not going to be looking forward to Super 8 sequels anyhow so if it's good I'll get my ultimate reward.

Do I hope that original good movies succeed? Yes because that means more but if it doesn't and I like it, I'll be disappointed with it's boxoffice and move on.

I don't expect it to open with more than 35mil but I remember when everyone thought that Karate Kid would only open in the high 30's or early 40's and go slightly under or crack 100 and it did 176mil overall. Those people thought that A-Team would out do it and it didn't.

You never know whats going to break out at the boxoffice, none of these things are set in stone. Always hedge your bets a little bit when it comes to predicting.

 

[rashad]

Box Office Report: 'X-Men: First Class' Grosses $21 Million on Opening Day
2:47 AM 6/4/2011 by Pamela McClintock

Warner Bros.' "The Hangover Part II" comes in at No. 2 with $9.3 million.

Twentieth Century Fox’s prequel X-Men: First Class grossed a promising $21 million in its Friday debut at the domestic box office, and is on track to meet expectations and earn $55 million for the weekend.

Box office revenues should be up 20 percent from last year once final weekend grosses are tallied, thanks to the relaunch of Fox’s marquee superhero franchise and a cadre of holdovers, led by Warner Bros.’ The Hangover Part II.

Hangover came in No. 2 behind First Class at the Friday box office, grossing at least $9.3 million. The R-rated comedy fell a steep 68 percent from a week ago, but is still on track to gross $30 million or more for the weekend, pushing its domestic cume close to $190 million.
GALLERY: 'X-Men: First Class' Style

Directed by Matthew Vaughn, First Class drew a B+ CinemaScore, with 59 percent of the audience over the age of 25. Males repped 61 percent of those buying tickets, in line with previous installments in the X-Men franchise.

The fifth film in the X-Men universe has a decidedly different feel than its predecessors. Set in the 1960s against the backdrop of the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Cold War, First Class introduces Charles Xavier (James McAvoy) and Erik Lensherr (Michael Fassbender) just as they’re discovering their mutant powers.

Instead of relying on A-list Hollywood stars, Fox instead turned to a cadre of up-and-coming actors to play the young mutants. Starring opposite McAvoy and Fassbender are Jennifer Lawrence, January Jones, Nicholas Hoult and Zoe Kravitz. Kevin Bacon plays the villain.

Fox, looking to manage expectations, had said that First Class should open in the range of the first X-Men, which opened to $54 million.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-report-x-men-194834

 

[rashad]

DHD Friday/Weekend Estimates

1. X Men: First Class (Marvel/Fox) NEW [3,641 Theaters]
Friday $23M, Estimated Weekend $53M

2. The Hangover Part 2 (Warner Bros) Week 2 [3,615 Theaters]
Friday $11M (-65%), Estimated Weekend $35M, Estimated Cume $189.4M

3. Kung Fu Panda 2 3D (DreamWorks Animation/Paramount) Week 2 [3,952 Theaters]
Friday $6.2M (-52%), Estimated Saturday $22M, Estimated Cume $98M

4. Pirates Of The Caribbean 4 3D (Disney) Week 3 [3,966 Theaters]
Friday $4.9M, Estimated Weekend $16.5M, Estimated Cume $188.7M

5. Bridesmaids (Universal) Week 4 [2,919 Theaters]
Friday $3.5M, Estimated Weekend $12M, Estimated Cume $107M

6. Thor (Marvel/Paramount) Week 5 [2,780 Theaters]
Friday $1.3M, Estimated Weekend $4.5M, Estimated Cume $169.3M

7. Fast Five (Universal) Week 6 [2,237 Theaters]
Friday $975K, Estimated Weekend $3.4M, Estimated Cume $202M

8. Midnight In Paris (Sony Classics) Week 3 [147 Theaters]
Friday $700K, Estimated Weekend $2.4M, Estimated Cume $6.4M

9. Something Borrowed (Warner Bros) Week 5 [688 Theaters]
Friday $250K, Estimated Weekend $750K, Estimated Cume $36.6M

10. Jumping The Broom (Screen Gems/Sony) Week 5 [589 Theaters]
Friday $200K, Estimated Weekend $700K, Estimated Cume $35.8M

http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Not surprising to see that opening for X-Men.

Pirates 4 and X-Men: First Class will under-perform.

I've literally heard people groan when the On Stranger Tides trailer plays. That franchise has had its time in the sun but like Shrek refuses to walk away until the general public vehemently says "No more!" Take a look at what happened to Shrek Forever After last May and that's what you're looking at for Pirates. What would normally be deemed a solid gross, will be viewed as a disappointment considering the heights that franchise once hit.

As for First Class, it's very simple. No Hugh Jackman/Wolverine, the retro-60s angle and the last two films were very unpopular (i.e. opened big, but plummeted because of poor word-of-mouth). Without question, it'll be the lowest grossing X-Men film.

 

[jmc]

Tell you what, Bridesmaids has been going surprisingly strong.

 

[flickchick85]

From it's opening weekend, Bridesmaids positively screamed "runaway hit." The word-of-mouth on that thing is crazy.

 

[TheIncredibleSk]

I think Bridesmaid made Kristin Wig a star. I wouldn't be surprised if she doesn't come back to SNL.

 

[flickchick85]

I don't think Kristin Wiig fans OR non-Wiig fans would be too unhappy about that.

 

[lime]

What the hell are people talking about??? Pirates may not be so strong in US theaters but it has 708 millions worldwide in just 14 days. I say the movie is VERY successful! It will past 800 and maybe go to 900.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Not surprising to see that opening for X-Men.

Those were my thoughts from day one. Those 70 and 80mil opening weekend predictions were never going to happen. Never.

I'm not going to assume it has legs either because everyone assumed that the well reviewed X2 would have legs and that didn't turn out well. It should have a decent drop next weekend because Super 8 isn't going to open huge but GL is going to hit it hard because it's going to open with over 50mil too.

For all the s**t GL's marketing gets on this site I saw very few criticize the s**tty job Fox did marketing First Class. The marketing hasn't been a slam dunk for any of these comicbook movies so far. Well Captain America is doing a good job but thats it.

 

[rashad]

I don't think Pirates will ever reach the heights of Dead Man's Chest domestically again. It's definitely a more overseas driven film these days. Mostly because of Depp as Sparrow.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I don't think that anybody was calling Pirates a failure in anyway but the series has run it's course in the states. And after this movie I think that it will start going down overseas when they make another one.

Still, it has made a s**tload of money. Imagine if the sequels had actually been good? This movie would probably be on it's way to 400mil domestic.

 

[Electrix]

Captain Ameroca is gonna be a huge hit. Even with HP8 on its back. I expect 700 million WW. It's gonna be huge in the states and I think it can get the America stigma off its back in the countries that count.

I can remember people saying Superman Returns would do similar numbers. Just because the character is as American as apple pie doesn't mean everyone will go see it. The rest of the world certainly won't.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Expecting 700mil for Captain America is a bit much, quite a bit much. Lets start at 300mil worldwide and work our way up. There are very few non sequels that have made over 700mil worldwide.

Sk says nothing about it making money because it's American, he makes reference to that being a hinderance for it internationally.

 

[kedrell]

Personally, I think Cap will be the only SH film this year that's got a shot at challenging Thor's WW gross. I suspect XMFC & GL will hinder each other and if lucky gross in the $300M range WW(which will be more in XMFC's favor than GL's because of the difference in budgets). I don't expect Cap to match Thor's OS take, which is on track to beat even IM1's OS take. But I think Cap can make the difference up domestically and maybe then some. Everything I've seen of it so far looks utterly fantastic.

 

[Evil Twin]

At this point, I'm expecting all the superhero movies this Summer to do alright, but not even touch the heights of true blockbusters. At least domestically.

Kind of unfortunate in a Summer filled with sequels, but we're seeing why they make sequels in the first place.

From what I can tell from tracking Super 8 is going to have a heck of a time opening. Good WOM and legs may make it a success, but I think they've misjudged the mystery aspect of the marketing badly.

 

[KangConquers]

Does everyone think that the 4 comic movies will make enough for sequels? That's all that really matters. Everything else is just dick measuring for the sake of bragging rights.

to make sequel money all three films have to break 350 worldwide.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Not surprising to see that opening for X-Men.

But what did you mean by underperform? I'd say it's doing fine and will probably hit expectations of a $60 million+ weekend.

 

[JP]

I doubt it'll make more than $55, Parker. Fox expects 48-55 million, so I'm not worried about it underperforming.