Summer 2011 box office predictions

[Doctor Jones]

Until POTC breaks it two weeks later. The key is to make as much as possible in those two weeks. If not, POTC will come in and ruin it all.

 

[Iron_Stark]

No no, the difference is that Fast Five is actually a great movie.

lol, No it's not.

The Twilight movies not having legs haven't hurt them from becoming huge blockbusters. The last one made more than the overhyped Tron and the disappointing Iron Man 2 worldwide. People can laugh at the legs all they want but Summit is laughing all the way to the bank.

Justin Beiber sells a lot, doesn't mean his music is any good.

The only thing Summit is laughing about is how many dumb and gullible people there are out there that buy into that garbage.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

lol, No it's not.

It's the best reviewed movie of the series by both critics and the GA alike (even better than the first). I'd say it's the best of the series and the only one I'd call a good movie, though the first one is a guilty pleasure.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

Any movie this summer with a shot at beating The Dark Knight and its biggest opening weekend record?

Harry Potter maybe?

 

[Yodaman]

^The only one that's possible this summer. I wouldn't be surprised if it did.

 

[Kane52630]

lol, No it's not.

You're clearly delusional and that's terrible.

It's the best reviewed movie of the series by both critics and the GA alike (even better than the first).

Pretty much, Justin Lin finally got a successful film that is both critically and commercially.

 

[jmc]

Actual US Box Office for F5 is $86.2 million.

http://www.deadline.com/2011/05/fast-five-actual-domestic-gross-86-2m/:

That is insane, and given the word of mouth is freakin awesome this film is gonna make a crap load.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The word of mouth is great but I still think that it's going to be really frontloaded. I think that best it can hope for is a 2.5 multiplier. Right now I'm thinking a 2.35. Thats not indictive of the love it's getting, I just think that it's a frontloaded series. And it has Thor to deal with. Thor should open to atleast 55mil and that will hurt FF.

I would love if it had awesome legs ( A 2.7 to 3.0 for a fifth would be awesome) but I just don't see it.

 

[Doctor Jones]

For some reason, I do see this as frontloaded, even if this has the best WOM. Could be a one timer. Then the WOM will spread but with Thor, it'll be interesting to see how it will hold up. Though I'm more concerned about Thor. See ST opened fine after Wolverine came out a week before. So that gives me some comfort. But these are different films and WOM wasn't good for Wolverine.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yep Fast Five has two things that Wolverine didn't have, good word of mouth and good reviews.

Thor has good reviews on it's side (despite that early 95% on Rotten Tomatoes the positive reviews aren't as good as Iron Man or Star Trek though) and it might blow away my prediction of a 60mil opening but I don't think that it's trailers have been as good as Star Trek's. It might open to 80mil for all I know but I will be wrong then because I'm just not feeling those kind of numbers.

I feel that it could be a legs movie though. Again I was wrong about Iron Man's opening in 2008 so maybe I'll be wrong again. *shrugs*

 

[Doctor Jones]

What was your prediction of IM?

I'm worried about Thor's legs as well. Like I said, it has to make a good amount before Pirates or that will destroy it. Unless Thor is a true Godly (no pun intended) miracle and can last, even if it's knocked out of the number one spot by Pirates.

 

[Drizzle]

I think that with Osama bin Laden's death, Captain America is now set to become the highest grossing superhero movie this summer. Yes, I'm serious.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

What was your prediction of IM?

I'm worried about Thor's legs as well. Like I said, it has to make a good amount before Pirates or that will destroy it. Unless Thor is a true Godly (no pun intended) miracle and can last, even if it's knocked out of the number one spot by Pirates.

I don't remember.

POTC4 will not be a mega huge hit like the first 3. The quality of the sequels will hurt the film, the movie looks less expensive than the last 3 movies and the trailers haven't found a really good hook. The first movie had skeleton/ghost pirates, the second had Davy Jones and sea creature looking pirates and the 3rd movie had the same thing. This new movie looks kinda cheap for a POTC movie and doesn't have any really eye catching special effect shots. It's going to make a s**tload overseas but in the states, 230 to 250mil at best. If it gets good reviews from both critics and moviegoers maybe it will make more.

Thor is only going to have to worry about whether moviegoers like it and go back for more.

 

[BestGirl]

I think that with Osama bin Laden's death, Captain America is now set to become the highest grossing superhero movie this summer. Yes, I'm serious.

I think CA was destined to be the highest-grossing SH movie even before OBL's death.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm still going with GL unless it gets bad reviews.

 

[S.A.A.D.]

I really don't think that the general audience is dumb enough to help The First Avenger make alot of money just because it's a theatrical movie about Captain America.

 

[Yodaman]

^???????????????????????

 

[flickchick85]

I think Cap will do well because it looks like a good movie, not because of some newly invigorated sense of patriotic pride (which, let's face it, people will probably have moved on from by the end of July. People have short memories).

 

[BMM]

Yep Fast Five has two things that Wolverine didn't have, good word of mouth and good reviews.

It also wasn't leaked online a month in advance.

I think Cap will do well because it looks like a good movie, not because of some newly invigorated sense of patriotic pride (which, let's face it, people will probably have moved on from by the end of July. People have short memories).

I agree. If it had happened a couple of days before, perhaps. A couple of months? I think people will have moved on by then.

 

[dark_b]

It also wasn't leaked online a month in advance.

so? its not like the general public watched a bad cam-version that was leaked on some unknown internet site.

 

[BMM]

so?

What do you mean so? You can't tell me the leak didn't impact the box office, even if it just spread bad word of mouth a month in advance. After hearing how bad the movie was, and being able to readily view it online, why would any teenager or 20 something who knows how to use a computer waste $10 to see it in theaters? Obviously people did, but I'm sure there are many who didn't. I'm not saying that's the only factor to consider, when comparing something to Wolverine's box office performance, but it is something to consider.

its not like the general public watched a bad cam-version that was leaked on some unknown internet site.

Yeah, exactly. They weren't watching a bad cam-version leaked on some unknown internet site. They were watching a DVD quality workprint on just about any internet site that hosts video.

 

[jmc]

Wolverine got what it deserved and probably saved a lot of people from wasting their cash.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Wolverine got what it deserved and probably saved a lot of people from wasting their cash.

Agreed.

Also, Wolverine opened to a huge 85mil. The leak didn't hurt it, the s**ty quality did.

People who loved or liked Wolverine have that right but most who saw it didn't care for it. And thats why First Class will suffer.

 

[BMM]

Agreed.

Also, Wolverine opened to a huge 85mil. The leak didn't hurt it, the s**ty quality did.

You think the leak didn't hurt it, but it saved a lot of people from wasting their cash? Kind of contradictory isn't it? I don't think the leak hurt Wolverine in that it didn't tank by any means, but I do think it had an effect. I think the clear lack of quality hurt Wolverine the most, no question, but the leak put bad word of mouth out early. Of course, I guess one could argue the leak generated interest as well. I just tend not to compare things to Wolverine's box office too much, because I'm not quite sure how it would have performed otherwise.

People who loved or liked Wolverine have that right but most who saw it didn't care for it. And thats why First Class will suffer.

Yeah, probably.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Obviously I wasn't really agreeing with JMC as that would conflict with my comment, I just wanted to take a shot at a bad film.

You don't have to compare any films to Wolverine because of the leak but I will because that movie was never headed for over 100mil. The leak was used by Fox to try and tamper expectations for the film's opening. Can't wait to hear what excuse they use when First Class underperforms.

Anyway this is so 2009 so I'm moving on to this year.