Superman (2025) Box Office Thread

[DCDAVE]

Poor reviews/Poor fan word of mouth $100 ow domestic, mixed reviews so so fan reaction $125 million ow domestic , solid reviews good fan reaction $140 to $150 domestic.

If it’s great all the way around…….. This thread will be the place to be from July 11th through August 1st.

 

[GreenKToo]

James Gunn's track record says that this will be a hit.
He truly seems like a big fan of Superman, and he seems to actually "get' Superman.

It's HIGHLY unlikely that Superman will be his first miss.
I imagine he is his own biggest critic, and he has Superman as good as he could possibly make it.

He seems to actually listen to people around him, and he doesn't appear to let his ego get in the way, ie, David wanted the trunks, Gunn listened.

I'm sticking to my gun(n)s. 140 to 150 mill ow.

 

[lenz]

Poor reviews/Poor fan word of mouth $100 ow domestic, mixed reviews so so fan reaction $125 million ow domestic , solid reviews good fan reaction $140 to $150 domestic.

If it’s great all the way around…….. This thread will be the place to be from July 11th through August 1st.

I think it could go even higher than 150 million. There is the usual chatter on the Box Office Theory Boards, but I like to follow film reviewers and analysts moreso.

Yesterday was the start of the 14-day tracking window for Superman. EmpireCity Box Office posted on X that "Nothing has changed from this having solid pre-sales in the 100m-130m range, and nothing so far indicating a break out. It remains the most review dependent film of the summer and all comes down to reaction and WOM."

From my POV the online traction is strong. Recent reports are the majority of people who have seen the film liked it, so if this does carry over and manifest itself more tangibly the week prior to release, I think it will give a big boost to the opening weekend.

 

[DCDAVE]

I think it could go even higher than 150 million. There is the usual chatter on the Box Office Theory Boards, but I like to follow film reviewers and analysts moreso.

Yesterday was the start of the 14-day tracking window for Superman. EmpireCity Box Office posted on X that "Nothing has changed from this having solid pre-sales in the 100m-130m range, and nothing so far indicating a break out. It remains the most review dependent film of the summer and all comes down to reaction and WOM."

From my POV the online traction is strong. Recent reports are the majority of people who have seen the film liked it, so if this does carry over and manifest itself more tangibly the week prior to release, I think it will give a big boost to the opening weekend.

That is the rub with all these movies. The walk up crowd is unpredictable. Minecraft literally tripled its expected opening with the walk up crowds. Superman is by far the biggest presale movie of the year and they are not even counting the Amazon prime early screenings for opening weekend. In America Superman will be made or broken after July 8th. Reviews will be out and regular Joe fans will have seen it and talked about it.

 

[lenz]

It appears to be the one film with the most sustained hype/marketing this summer. Most likely the casuals/non-fans will choose this option first over the competition. These are the people and/or families that generally don't waste their time or care about internet diatribes, narratives, bubbles, etc.

 

[DCDAVE]

It appears to be the one film with the most sustained hype/marketing this summer. Most likely the casuals/non-fans will choose this option first over the competition. These are the people and/or families that generally don't waste their time or care about internet diatribes, narratives, bubbles, etc.

Lilo and Stitch according to the Hollywood reporter was tracking at $120 million for the Memorial Day weekend 3 weeks out and ended up at 180 million +. The fact that Superman has sold so many early tickets without the press tours in the U.S. is impressive. Adult superhero fans may not like it but Superman will be your classic lets take your family to the movie film for the summer because Dad, mom, and the kids will have something to look forward too.

 

[donuts]

Adult superhero fans have something to look forward to ,as well. Edgelords will likely not.

 

[GreenKToo]

I think the floor ow will be 120(ish), but it "could" go as high as 175(ish).
I'm around 150 mill.

 

[DCDAVE]

I think the floor ow will be 120(ish), but it "could" go as high as 175(ish).
I'm around 150 mill.

You keep going up and up.

 

[flickchick85]

Unless reviews are bad and WOM takes a nosedive in the final week, I’m thinking $130-140mil.

 

[donuts]

I stay humble. It would be cool if it grosses over $100M domestically on its opening weekend.

 

[DCDAVE]

Unless reviews are bad and WOM takes a nosedive in the final week, I’m thinking $130-140mil.

You keep going up and up

 

[DCDAVE]

I stay humble. It would be cool if it grosses over $100M domestically on its opening weekend.

$100 million is the low end according to EmpireCity Box office.

 

[donuts]

$100 million is the low end according to EmpireCity Box office.

I don't pay attention to forecasts. Everything's always subject to change. You never really know how things pan out ultimately.

 

[DCDAVE]

I don't pay attention to forecasts. Everything's always subject to change. You never really know how things pan out ultimately.

Can’t foresee the walk up crowds. I wouldn’t even count that until after it happens. Superman could be like Minecraft on the positive side or It could be like recent comic book films on the negative side. So hard to predict. We only know it has sold more presale tickets then any movie in 2025 on the first day of ticket sales. Gonna be fun posting about it on this board with you guys.

 

[STARMAN]

I find Empire City to be one of the more accurate trackers with ticket sales. He does an especially good job of tracking ticket sales during the final week and projecting what the BO will be. There have been plenty of times where he'll say tickets sales are surging and will exceed the BO predictions or if tickets sales are lagging and will fail to meet expectations and sometimes gets the final number right. Most recently he was the first one I saw that said Minecraft was selling at a far greater rate than projections and 160 was a possibility when the projections were for a 100.

In-regards to Superman, I've been following the daily ticket sales by experienced trackers on the Box Office Theory Forum. As of now tickets sales are good but not incredible. It's slightly outpacing Captain America: Brave New World.

 

[lenz]

I find Empire City to be one of the more accurate trackers with ticket sales. He does an especially good job of tracking ticket sales during the final week and projecting what the BO will be. There have been plenty of times where he'll say tickets sales are surging and will exceed the BO predictions or if tickets sales are lagging and will fail to meet expectations and sometimes gets the final number right. Most recently he was the first one I saw that said Minecraft was selling at a far greater rate than projections and 160 was a possibility when the projections were for a 100.

In-regards to Superman, I've been following the daily ticket sales by experienced trackers on the Box Office Theory Forum. As of now tickets sales are good but not incredible. It's slightly outpacing Captain America: Brave New World.

He's excellent and I appreciate that he doesn't sugar coat his opinions to curry favor with people in the industry or with his "audience".

 

[GreenKToo]

You keep going up and up.

Nah. my best guess/hope is, it will be around 145/150 mill ow.

That said, if it is really good, and it has good wom, then it could be higher. It's just so hard to say.

It has so many unknowns with it, ie, will people come out for a new Superman film, will the last one leave a bad taste in their mouths and they stay away, etc.
If they do stay away, it could be on the low side ow, but at the same time it could be really good and have legs in the long run.

So therefore, it has a big range on where it could land. More so than most films.
So, Anywhere from 120 on the low side, to 175 (ish) on the high side ( doubtful )

 

[DCDAVE]

Nah. my best guess/hope is, it will be around 145/150 mill ow.

That said, if it is really good, and it has good wom, then it could be higher. It's just so hard to say.

It has so many unknowns with it, ie, will people come out for a new Superman film, will the last one leave a bad taste in their mouths and they stay away, etc.
If they do stay away, it could be on the low side ow, but at the same time it could be really good and have legs in the long run.

So therefore, it has a big range on where it could land. More so than most films.
So, Anywhere from 120 on the low side, to 175 (ish) on the high side ( doubtful )

I think we are getting your dream Lex Luther. I hope you stayed away from a certain clip that is making the rounds.

It’s all about July 7th through the 10th. WOM will make or break this movie. WB seems to be controlling the narrative now. But no hiding anything when it comes to those early screenings. It just feels like everyone is focused on those days.

 

[GreenKToo]

I think we are getting your dream Lex Luther. I hope you stayed away from a certain clip that is making the rounds.

It’s all about July 7th through the 10th. WOM will make or break this movie. WB seems to be controlling the narrative now. But no hiding anything when it comes to those early screenings. It just feels like everyone is focused on those days.

I haven't seen it, but I don't mind being spoiled. It doesn't bother me.
A hero is only as good as his villain is bad.
Where would batman be without his joker, or Spider-Man without his goblin.

 

[TheVisionary]

James Gunn is a campy, silly, cheesy and unfunny juvenile humor director, and it shows in this film. Yet, I think the movie will make 3.5 billion beating Avatar's record.

 

[DCDAVE]

I haven't seen it, but I don't mind being spoiled. It doesn't bother me.
A hero is only as good as his villain is bad.
Where would batman be without his joker, or Spider-Man without his goblin.

Luther is on the Mount Rushmore of Superhero villains. It looks like DC has finally got him right in the movie universe. Luther is the key to Superman’s quality.

 

[AverageMan]

Box office Theory still saying $130m-$170m opening weekend.
On the high side for me, that would potentially be more than JW over a holiday weekend. Can't see it myself.

 

[flickchick85]

I'm going back down to $120m-$135m. Pre-sales have slowed down (due in part to the holiday I'm sure but still...seems like it's gonna be very review/WOM-dependent).

 

[DCDAVE]

Global box office is saying $19-$25 million early previews. $49-$62 million opening day. Potentially biggest opening day of the year. The North American Marketing goes to Super Nova on Monday through Wednesday of next week.

Box office theory says big uptake in Friday-Saturday-Sunday tickets. That is why they are so bullish.

I think we are overacting to reviews. Jurassic World rebirth is doing well without IMAX screens/ positive reviews and we all know about Minecraft/Lilo.