Terminator Salvation: Box Office Prediction/Discussion

[Eric Brooks]

Staying power proved important at the foreign box office as well, where "Terminator Salvation" was No. 1 for the second weekend in a row. The Halcyon Co.'s fourth entry in the science-fiction series, which is being distributed internationally by Sony, grossed $46.1 million. That includes very impressive launches in Japan and China, where it grossed $10.7 million and $9 million, respectively.

The $200-million movie is making up for a soft performance in the U.S. and Canada, where it has earned $113.8 million, with foreign grosses that already total $165.5 million.

hmmmm

can our foreign neighbors help salvage the franchise?


tune in next week

Same Bat Time.......Same Bat Channel

 

[Deaths Head II]

I assumed an excellent script had been written by Jonah Nolan that would elevate McG as a director, and set reports were so enthusiastic that I picked up on the buzz.

Same here. If the script was a usual Nolan script then it wouldn't matter as much if McG wasn't as talented as Cameron. At it's very worst I figured it would have been somewhat of a flawed masterpiece. If it has the substance and heart, that is what makes all the difference. But instead of a Nolan-written epic with a director who is looking for redemption and who is respecting of the source material, we got Nolan doing some touch ups to a script written by the Catwoman writers. All under the care of the Charlies Angels director who decided to treat Terminator as if it were a Charlies Angels movie. I felt that all the elements for a great film were there, it's just that it came together all wrong.

 

[Scarlet Spider]

Same here. If the script was a usual Nolan script then it wouldn't matter as much if McG wasn't as talented as Cameron. At it's very worst I figured it would have been somewhat of a flawed masterpiece. If it has the substance and heart, that is what makes all the difference. But instead of a Nolan-written epic with a director who is looking for redemption and who is respecting of the source material, we got Nolan doing some touch ups to a script written by the Catwoman writers. All under the care of the Charlies Angels director who decided to treat Terminator as if it were a Charlies Angels movie. I felt that all the elements for a great film were there, it's just that it came together all wrong.

Of course it matters that McG wasn't as talented as Cameron, as long as the script was good. That's like saying any director in Hollywood can craft a film as good as Spielberg, as long as he has a great script. It doesn't work that way.

 

[bullets]

hmmmm

can our foreign neighbors help salvage the franchise?


tune in next week

Same Bat Time.......Same Bat Channel

They are the only hope. I think Terminator Salvation will drop out of the U.S. top ten next weekend.

 

[Deaths Head II]

Of course it matters that McG wasn't as talented as Cameron, as long as the script was good. That's like saying any director in Hollywood can craft a film as good as Spielberg, as long as he has a great script. It doesn't work that way.

I said it wouldn't matter as much. And it wouldn't. It would still matter, but if the script is absolutely fantastic the director would have to be pretty terrible to mess that up. There are mediocre directors out there that have managed to make one or two stand out movies simply because the scripts were good (just like there are good directors who made bad movies because the scripts were bad). And McG's directing in terms of look and feel was appropriate enough. I had a blast watching it, it's just if you stop to actually think about whats going on you start to realize how mediocre it is.

 

[FCEEVIPER]

'Terminator' stays on top overseas
Finishes No. 1 in more than 30 territories
By Frank Segers
June 14, 2009, 03:20 PM ET

"Terminator Salvation"
Despite the foreign introduction of three big summer titles, including Warner Bros.' domestic boxoffice winner "The Hangover," Sony's "Terminator Salvation" remained atop the international circuit during the weekend by grossing an estimated $46.1 million from 10,500 screens in 80 territories.

A No. 1 Japan opening for the fourth title in the sci-fi action series, which has played overseas since May 27, generated $10.7 million from 729 sites. The film's China bow registered $9 million from 1,671 locations. In all, "Salvation" took the No. 1 spot in more than 30 territories.

"Salvation's" international cume stands at $165.5 million, of which $141.1 million originates from territories handled by Sony. During its second weekend in the U.K., the film finished No. 2 with $3.4 million from 875 locations. In France, its second weekend produced $2.8 million from 737 locations.

The overseas weekend was moderate overall, with torrid temperatures in many European markets complicating boxoffice action.

"Hangover" finished No. 4 on the weekend with $11.6 million from more than 1,350 screens in 15 markets. The comedy's No. 1 U.K. opening produced $5.2 million, including previews, from 424 screens. A No. 1 bow in Australia generated $2.7 million from 226 sites. The film opens Wednesday in Belgium and Friday in Italy.

Sony's "The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3," which opened No. 3 domestically, finished out of the top five overseas with $2.4 million from 400 screens, mostly in Asia and the Middle East. Its top market was Korea, where the Tony Scott-helmed Columbia/MGM title, starring Denzel Washington and John Travolta, grossed $1 million from 200 locations.

Also out of the top five overseas was Universal's family comedy/fantasy "Land of the Lost," which ranked No. 5 during its second weekend domestically. The Will Ferrell vehicle opened at 670 sites in five markets for an offshore tally of $3.1 million. A No. 3 bow in Australia produced $1.3 million from 194 screens, and a No. 2 debut in Russia generated $1.4 million from 100 locations.

Finishing second was Fox's "Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian," which took the No. 1 spot in its Mexico bow (grabbing a 38% market share with $3.3 million from 1,150 sites) and ranked first during its second Korea round ($6.9 million from 446 screens). Overall, the family comedy, starring Ben Stiller, drew $17.9 million from 8,156 sites in 104 markets, raising its international cume to $176.2 million (vs. $143.4 domestic).

In third position was Sony's "Angels & Demons," which grossed $14.1 million from 7,110 screens for an overseas cume of $315 million. In Germany, "The Da Vinci Code" follow-up, starring Tom Hanks, finished No. 1 during its fifth stanza with $2.9 million from 1,041 screens for a market cume of $39.9 million.

At No. 5 on the weekend was Pixar/Disney's "Up," which continued its graduated foreign rollout by grossing $8.2 million from 2,243 locales in 14 territories.

"Up's" international total stands at $26.6 million and its worldwide cume at $213.8 million. The animation title finished first in 12 markets, with its second Mexico weekend generating $2.6 million (down only 29% from its opening there) from 799 screens for a market cume of $7.9 million. A Ukraine opening looms this weekend.

Mandate/Universal's "Drag Me to Hell" looks to register $4.5 million on the weekend from an unspecified number of screens in holdover territories and about 25 new markets. Mandate is handling at least 10 territories, and Universal has 14 markets. Universal will premiere Sam Raimi's horror title July 31 in Spain.

Disney's "Hannah Montana: The Movie" finished its second Germany round in the market's No. 4 spot, eliciting $1.8 million from 526 sites for a market cume of $5.2 million. The overseas weekend figure for the Miley Cyrus teen-pop saga was $3.8 million from 2,353 locations in 26 territories, pushing its foreign cume of $48.2 million. The film opens this week in France and Greece.

Paramount's "Star Trek" grossed $3.5 million from 3,284 locations in 63 markets. Its overseas cume stands at $119 million.

Focus/Universal's "Coraline" upped its international cume to $29.7 million thanks to a $2.7 million weekend from 1,690 screens in 31 markets. Debuts in four markets were capped by a No. 3 opening in France, which produced $1.3 million from 438 locations.

In France, "The French Kissers," Pathe's teen-sex comedy from first-time director Riad Sattouf -- which played in the Directors' Fortnight at the Festival de Cannes -- opened No. 2 in the market with $2.3 million from 600 locations.

Other newcomers were SND's release of Darren Grant's dance title "Make It Happen," starring Mary Elizabeth Winstead, which bowed at No. 4 in Paris and its environs, and UGC's Amanda Sthers-helmed "Je Vais te manquer," starring Carole Bouquet and Pierre Arditi, which opened No. 5 in Paris.

Pedro Almodovar's "Broken Embraces," from Pathe, finished out of the top five in France with $875,000 from 408 locales. Its market cume stands at $5.8 million.

Other international cumes: Fox's "X-Men Origins: Wolverine," $179.7 million (thanks to a $1.7 million weekend from 2,000 screens in 33 markets); New Line's "Ghosts of Girlfriends Past," $13.1 million; Universal's "State of Play," $31.4 million; DreamWorks/Paramount's "I Love You, Man," $15 million; Fox's "Marley & Me," $100.2 million; DreamWorks Animation/Paramount's "Monsters vs. Aliens," $171.5 million through 11 weeks; New Line's "17 Again," $60.5 million; Pathe/Fox's "Slumdog Millionaire," $216.2 million; New Line's "He's Just Not That Into You," $72.1 million; Universal's "The Last House on the Left," $4.5 million (Universal territories only); Fox's "Dragonball Evolution," $48.2 million; Fox's "Taken," $74.6 million; Fox's "12 Rounds," $4.9 million; Fox's "Notorious," $6.3 million; and Fox's "Secret Life of Bees," $2 million.

 

[Spider-Fan]

McG's direction wasn't very good. The movie was flashy, when clearly he wanted the world to feel dirty. The flashy direction and such take away from that part of the world he was trying to create, thus not being very well directed. The direction and writing were not up to par in my mind. McG had no clear vision for this picture, and it showed on the screen. The fact he had bad writing just didn't help.

 

[Deaths Head II]

I don't know, every single time that I look at clips or images for this film I still can't wrap my mind around the fact that this is a mediocre film.

I think McG's direction was fine. This film looks like it SHOULD be a good film. While I don't like McG and I'd rather he not come for the sequel, I don't hate how he made the film look really. I hate him more for the garbage he spewed to hype this film about how he cared about plot and story when he still ended up going ahead with this weak script.

 

[bullets]

McG's direction wasn't very good. The movie was flashy, when clearly he wanted the world to feel dirty. The flashy direction and such take away from that part of the world he was trying to create, thus not being very well directed.

It seemed like everything was in high definition but i thought it was still dirty.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I didn't. I felt he tried to meld the contradictory styles (which is not a bad choice per se...if you can do it effectively....it can often be effective to do so), but I didn't feel the styles meshed well.

 

[Scarlet Spider]

I said it wouldn't matter as much. And it wouldn't. It would still matter, but if the script is absolutely fantastic the director would have to be pretty terrible to mess that up. There are mediocre directors out there that have managed to make one or two stand out movies simply because the scripts were good (just like there are good directors who made bad movies because the scripts were bad). And McG's directing in terms of look and feel was appropriate enough. I had a blast watching it, it's just if you stop to actually think about whats going on you start to realize how mediocre it is.

See, that's the thing. Expecting a good film based on what we knew is one thing, that's a realistic expectation, but expecting a film on par with Cameron's work is unrealistic. That's was never going to happen, no matter how good of a script McG had to work with.

 

[Celestial]

Quite a big drop-off in the international box office this weekend.
Last weekend $67.5m. This weekend $46.1m including $19.7m from Japan and China. So that makes it $26.4m in the holdovers, a drop of 61%. The UK drop was 71%. It will probably be close to $200m after next weekend ($10m during the week and $20m next weekend). Assuming a drop-off of 50% from there on takes it to $225m.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Quite a big drop-off in the international box office this weekend.
Last weekend $67.5m. This weekend $46.1m including $19.7m from Japan and China. So that makes it $26.4m in the holdovers, a drop of 61%. The UK drop was 71%. It will probably be close to $200m after next weekend ($10m during the week and $20m next weekend). Assuming a drop-off of 50% from there on takes it to $225m.

So glad you brought this up. The movie is still doing fantastically overseas, don't get me wrong, but the drops were not great or anything. Again that hardly matters because the movie opened huge but I'm just saying.

I still think that it's too early to tell if it will outgross T3 overseas so I wouldn't bring out the popcorn and cola yet.

The movie looks to be headed for 128-130mil domestically and much more internationally. No doubt about it, the international audience were more excited.

 

[dark_b]

I assumed an excellent script had been written by Jonah Nolan that would elevate McG as a director, and set reports were so enthusiastic that I picked up on the buzz.

i think it was never said that Nolan wrotte a script. i think it was said from the beginning that Nolan was there for rewrittes to make Connors role bigger.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

i think it was never said that Nolan wrotte a script. i think it was said from the beginning that Nolan was there for rewrittes to make Connors role bigger.

Maybe she thought that he hand a much bigger role because McG was totally overplaying his involvment?

I wish I had stuck to my guns and not remotely got excited for the flick. I know it's hard to believe by all my yappin but I didn't hate the flick, I just find it to be a crushing disappointment that is unworthy to stand alongside the first two.

I never expected it to be as good as T2 but I didn't think it was impossible for it to be good in it's own right. But instead of "good" we got "okay"...I'm tired of okay I want a good movie dammit!

Seriously, why didn't the owners of this property get better writers? And a better director for that matter? Being good at action doesn't make you a good director.

 

[dark_b]

Maybe she thought that he hand a much bigger role because McG was totally overplaying his involvment?

I wish I had stuck to my guns and not remotely got excited for the flick. I know it's hard to believe by all my yappin but I didn't hate the flick, I just find it to be a crushing disappointment that is unworthy to stand alongside the first two.

I never expected it to be as good as T2 but I didn't think it was impossible for it to be good in it's own right. But instead of "good" we got "okay"...I'm tired of okay I want a good movie dammit!

Seriously, why didn't the owners of this property get better writers? And a better director for that matter? Being good at action doesn't make you a good director.

i knwo that thsi happened. she told me in a different thread that she belived MCG.
but thats her own fault.

i knew from the beginning that casting Bale and having Nolan writte for him was connected. TDK . yes you know it. when MCG said that he casted Bale so that people would take him serious i knew that something was not right. he didtn say at the beginning that he casted Bale because he was right for the role. i am aware that TDK was nto out yet. but hype was insane big for that movie. after TDK was out i think it was almost everytime about Nolan writting the movie. how ''he '' rewrotte almost everything. of course that was a lie. every interview until the premiere was proof IMO that MCG was lying and full of BS.

i also am somtimes wrong and because people were positive about the movie they ignored what was wrong. get it. but ignoring almost everything? thats just wrong.

 

[dark_b]

Seriously, why didn't the owners of this property get better writers? And a better director for that matter? Being good at action doesn't make you a good director.

having catwomen writters was already bad .but writting a story where Connor is not the main character and then kill him off? killing hm of and the big twist would make a big twist.
but what about the fact that you wrotte a terminator movie in the future war where Connor is nto the main character? how dumb do you have to be?

i think MCG could make a good terminator movie. but hte story was bad IMO plus it was little rushed. and after the premiere they had bad reviews and no interest in the movie.

hasta la vista baby

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

having catwomen writters was already bad .but writting a story where Connor is not the main character and then kill him off? killing hm of and the big twist would make a big twist.
but what about the fact that you wrotte a terminator movie in the future war where Connor is nto the main character? how dumb do you have to be?

So many bad ideas.

i think MCG could make a good terminator movie. but hte story was bad IMO plus it was little rushed. and after the premiere they had bad reviews and no interest in the movie.

hasta la vista baby

After thinking about it, I can't say that I don't think that he couldn't make a good Terminator movie but I wouldn't want to risk it.

 

[matrix_ghost]

Seriously, why didn't the owners of this property get better writers? And a better director for that matter? Being good at action doesn't make you a good director.

Studio politics i guess.
Plus they were involved in writing Terminator 3 which would explain why the producers went after them to write the movie.
For example Disney is going forward with POTC 4 and i would assume that they would continue with the same writers ( Rossio and that other guy).
But yeah even i think the ideas of their script were stupid. Interesting but stupid.

But i guess that's just the way i goes. Get the writers who are best buds with studio exec. , get a director , make the director rewrite the movie with some credible guy and then shoot the movie.

btw With the BO numbers i suppose there won't be a TErminator 5. Shame though because i really did like T:S. If by some miracle of god the studio decides to go forward with the sequel , i just want two things
1 ditch the original writers and get Nolan to work on the movie
2 Scrap the whole " John Conner going back into the past to fight the time traveling machines " idea.

Especially the last part. I just think it's ******ed to go with that storyline. It would be a visual treat to have all these machines arrive in the past and then the resistance arriving to fight them. But really it doesn't serve any story whatsoever other then to show off what you can do with CGI

 

[dark_b]

Studio politics i guess.
Plus they were involved in writing Terminator 3 which would explain why the producers went after them to write the movie.
For example Disney is going forward with POTC 4 and i would assume that they would continue with the same writers ( Rossio and that other guy).
But yeah even i think the ideas of their script were stupid. Interesting but stupid.

But i guess that's just the way i goes. Get the writers who are best buds with studio exec. , get a director , make the director rewrite the movie with some credible guy and then shoot the movie.

btw With the BO numbers i suppose there won't be a TErminator 5. Shame though because i really did like T:S. If by some miracle of god the studio decides to go forward with the sequel , i just want two things
1 ditch the original writers and get Nolan to work on the movie
2 Scrap the whole " John Conner going back into the past to fight the time traveling machines " idea.

Especially the last part. I just think it's ******ed to go with that storyline. It would be a visual treat to have all these machines arrive in the past and then the resistance arriving to fight them. But really it doesn't serve any story whatsoever other then to show off what you can do with CGI

they could do this in TS with a budget of 200 millions.
this wont happen if there is a sequel.

again am i the only one who noticed that the only ''war'' scene is in the beginning ? how f.. up is this?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

They should have just set the movie closer to the 2029 date in T2. I don't know about you but I wanted so f**king laser action.

 

[matrix_ghost]

they could do this in TS with a budget of 200 millions.
this wont happen if there is a sequel.

again am i the only one who noticed that only ''war'' scene as in teh beginning ? how f.. up is this?

When does the next issue of Cinefex come out ? I need to see which shots were animated and which aren't.

btw as much as i dislike George Lucas's storywriting and directorial skills , i have to admit that he's definately right in shooting the prequels against a blue screen. It's mostly economics but really if that kind of stuff works in movies like SIn City , the prequels and 300 , why can't it work for T:S.
I can understand that directors prefer to shoot things in real locations but when your budget is skyrockting to 200 million , shouldn't you be able rethink your strategy ?

Granted it would take longer to finish all these shots but the budget would've been quite low ( prolly 150 million max.)

 

[dark_b]

They should have just set the movie closer to the 2029 date in T2. I don't know about you but I wanted so f**king laser action.

the time when this movie happens is just wrong,bad,dumb.

i think people would be more interested in watching a terminator movie 5 or 8 months after judgment day. basicly people desperate withthout any idea what is happening and any technology.

or 2029 with future weapons and T-800 war scenes.

so IMO 2018 the worst time .

 

[dark_b]

When does the next issue of Cinefex come out ? I need to see which shots were animated and which aren't.

btw as much as i dislike George Lucas's storywriting and directorial skills , i have to admit that he's definately right in shooting the prequels against a blue screen. It's mostly economics but really if that kind of stuff works in movies like SIn City , the prequels and 300 , why can't it work for T:S.
I can understand that directors prefer to shoot things in real locations but when your budget is skyrockting to 200 million , shouldn't you be able rethink your strategy ?

Granted it would take longer to finish all these shots but the budget would've been quite low ( prolly 150 million max.)

the big robot and the moto-terminators were always CGI IMO. the T-600 in the beginning without legs is in 90% shots CGI.IMO

 

[matrix_ghost]

The opening sequence alone features so many VFX shots.
You're right about the moto terminators and Harvester. Definately the Hunter killers and of course the T-800. I'm still not sure about the T-600 fighting Connor at the beginning. It could be a animatronic model built by the Stan Winton guys but it moves far fluid.

And of course the city itself , the sea sequence with the sub and the shots of Worthington with his face exposed