Terminator Salvation: Box Office Prediction/Discussion

[batmop]

I'm not calling the movie a failure because I'm waiting for the friday and saturday numbers.

At Worlds End and Salvation can't be compared because Pirates 3 came out at 8pm on on thrusday. Salvation came out a 12am on thrusday. It had whole 24 hours while Pirates didn't.

CHECK YOUR FREAKIN FACTS BEFORE YOU WHINE!

And stop reading boxoffice prophets, it's a terrible boxoffice website.

Huh what website? At World's End just popped into my head as an example.

Like I said, let's wait and see what the rest of the numbers will be before jumping to conclusions. Memorial Day Weekends are hard to predict, but usually end up giving movies huge weekends, even movies with a slow opening day.

This isn't the kind of franchise that would rebooted in a few years. Salvation's (currently probable) box-office under-performance combined with the failure of The Sarah Connor Chronicles just proves that there isn't a huge fan base for the Terminator series like many thought/assumed.

Salvation will still be likely big overseas. Terminator has always been popular overseas, you can count on that.

But your logic is flawed. That is like saying the fanbase for Batman was small since Batman and Robin performed fairly poorly at the box office.

Salvation under-performing will likely be because of the very poorly done Sarah Conner Chronicles, as well as a lot of Terminator fans being burned by T3.

So far, if you look around various movie sites and Terminator fan sites, most Terminator fans like Salvation a lot more than T3.

If you make a wonderful film that is part of a franchise or mythology, the fans will come out to watch it in droves, as will many non-fans. TDK is the obvious example here, which made an absolutely monstrous amount of money for a Batman film. Even if you take Ledger's death out of the equation, TDK overachieved for a Batman movie because it was a great movie in general, not to mention an exceptional Batman movie.

If they get a good writer, or writers for Salvation's sequel, then it could be a really good movie.

T2, when it came out back in the day, was a huge success.

 

[TLH]

Don't read too much into the Thursday number. The film's demographic won't show up until the weekend. Hell, I didn't know T4 opened on the Thursday. I think $13 million is a fantastic number, and the PTA is fairly solid.

With a 4 day weekend coming up we'll see audiences taking their time to go see movies. I'm not sure we'll see anything higher than a 60% increase on Friday but it's still going to do pretty decent numbers. $200 million domestic is likely. A solid showing overseas inevitable. Not shaping up to be a bomb, or even much of a disappointment, as far as the box office is concerned in my opinion.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I already said that I was waiting for the numbers so I'm not in any way jumping to conclusions. When a movie opens midweek I always wait for the weekend numbers to judge.

Again Pirates 3 and this movie's thursday numbers are not comparable...period.

I like how atleast two posters here think that it's okay to think that the movie is doing amazing numbers after only doing 13 mil yesterday but think that it's bad to think that it's doing bad numbers based off of that opening day.

Again that disappointing 13mil could mean nothing and it could mean something, we just have to wait and see.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I think this film has a lot going against it this weekend. I can see a big 2nd weekend drop too. I won't say it's over yet, but I think this could be the last Terminator film for a long while.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think this film has a lot going against it this weekend. I can see a big 2nd weekend drop too. I won't say it's over yet, but I think this could be the last Terminator film for a long while.

This is how I see it's opening week playing out.


13.4mil 18.8mil 19.4mil 17.5mil 13.3mil

Total: 82.4mil. That hardly sounds like a bias prediction/projection.

 

[batmop]

I think this film has a lot going against it this weekend. I can see a big 2nd weekend drop too. I won't say it's over yet, but I think this could be the last Terminator film for a long while.

I can see a decent 2nd week drop. Word of mouth so far for the movie has been better than critic reviews. Among Terminator fans specifically, word of mouth has been solid. Amongst the general audience, it's been mixed. Let us see what the weekend brings though.

 

[Spider-Fan]

This is how I see it's opening week playing out.


13.4mil 18.8mil 19.4mil 17.5mil 13.3mil

Total: 82.4mil. That hardly sounds like a bias prediction/projection.

That sounds about right.

I personally hope it is the last one, but my prediction has more to do with NATM2.

 

[Tony Stark]

Salvation under-performing will likely be because of the very poorly done Sarah Conner Chronicles, as well as a lot of Terminator fans being burned by T3.

So far, if you look around various movie sites and Terminator fan sites, most Terminator fans like Salvation a lot more than T3.

If Salvation underperforms, it will be because most people think it sucks. As far as liking it better than T3, that's not saying much. The choice between the two is like choosing between dog crap or horse crap.

 

[Poetic Chaos]

Salvation under-performing will likely be because of the very poorly done Sarah Conner Chronicles, as well as a lot of Terminator fans being burned by T3.

whoa whoa whoa. Lay off SCC. The final 2 episodes were better than this movie and Thomas Dekker added more depth to the Connor character than Bale.

 

[batmop]

whoa whoa whoa. Lay off SCC. The final 2 episodes were better than this movie and Thomas Dekker added more depth to the Connor character than Bale.

That is a matter of opinion, as I disagree.

 

[Excel]

Hideous Thurs and Fri #'s, this franchise wont be back.

 

[Bunker]

Hideous Thurs and Fri #'s, this franchise wont be back.

Good riddance.

 

[Caped Crusader]

Hideous Thurs and Fri #'s, this franchise wont be back.

It will be back. Trust me

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Hideous Thurs and Fri #'s, this franchise wont be back.

Finke's numbers are usually closer than Masons, I'm waiting for hers before I comment.

 

[TheVileOne]

We'll see. But either way, I'm expecting to laugh at McG after this weekend.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Mason's reporting on Twitter that it earned $15 million on Friday and wind up with around $70 million in the 5 day weekend.

 

[Crook]

Lol, I'm sorta embarrassed for Bale and MCG. I wonder how they'll respond to such a mixed reaction to their reboot attempt. They did so much "talking", it's gonna be tough to address the lukewarm response.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Mason's reporting on Twitter that it earned $15 million on Friday and wind up with around $70 million in the 5 day weekend.

If finke's numbers confirm that, the movie is in serious trouble.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

But your logic is flawed. That is like saying the fanbase for Batman was small since Batman and Robin performed fairly poorly at the box office.

Salvation under-performing will likely be because of the very poorly done Sarah Conner Chronicles, as well as a lot of Terminator fans being burned by T3.

So far, if you look around various movie sites and Terminator fan sites, most Terminator fans like Salvation a lot more than T3.

That's ass backwards logic. T3 was a box-office under-performer and Sarah Connor Chronicles just failed. And now T4 isn't doing that awesome either.

They're not going to spend another $200+ million on yet another film after two under-performing films and one failed tv series - especially with the mixed-to-negative word of mouth T4 has been getting.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

That's ass backwards logic. T3 was a box-office under-performer and Sarah Connor Chronicles just failed. And now T4 isn't doing that awesome either.

They're not going to spend another $200+ million pn yet another film after two under-performing films and one failed tv series - especially with the mixed-to-negative word of mouth T4 has been getting.

His head is buried too far in the sand to hear you.

The fact is movies like this have to open massively if they have mixed word of mouth or they are screwed. I haven't seen the flick so I don't know what I'm going to think but I do know one thing, the early word of mouth doesn't seem to good. If those early numbers are correct Night at the Museum 2 will be number one for the M-day weekend...most likely. It would be a disaser for WB if Terminator Salvation came in second and had disappointing numbers to boot.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Mason's current tracking has the 4 day weekend going to Night at the Museum 2 with $64 million and T4 with $58 million (with just over $70 million including Thursday!)

 

[Nina7]

Well, to be fair, NATM2 is playing in 4,096 theaters compared to TS's 3,530. It's unfortunate that these two movies are opening the same weekend. They really need to space the summer blockbusters out a little more. I think Terminator will clean up overseas and there will be a sequel. Whether or not the same creative team come back is another story.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Uh we are being perfectly fair.

People let their emotions get in the way of talking about the boxoffice of a film far too much.

As I told the Wolverine and Star Trek fans, when I talk about boxoffice numbers I don't care about who liked or disliked the flick, I'm going by hardcore numbers.

I'm sure the movie is going to do well overseas but if this movie tanks here I think that it's silly for you to pretend that a sequel is a lock to get made.

And noticed how I used if because I don't know whats going to happen yet.

Mason's friday numbers usually aren't horribly off though but I still trust Finke more.

 

[Nina7]

You actually took offense to my post? Why? It wasn't an attack on you or any other poster. I merely pointed out that NATM2 is playing in over 500 more theaters and that that may be a factor with the weekend grosses.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm not offened I just find it funny when I costantly hear people go on about how big a movie is going to be and when they are wrong they make up all the excuses in the world as to why it didn't do as well as expected. And then they lower there standards as to what a hit really is.