Terminator Salvation: Box Office Prediction/Discussion

[co2]

I think TS's underperforming OW was mostly market overload. Three big action movies in one month, with giant robots which seemed Transformers-esque. It might have fared better in the fall instead, out of Wolverine/Star Trek/Transformers' shadow. I don't think it was the reviews - reviews don't matter as much as general word of mouth, and word of mouth doesn't kick in until the second weekend anyway. Opening weekend revenue is all about hype, prime release date, and marketing.

I think there is something to what you are saying. This summer is loaded pretty heavy on the front end. May alone has three of the biggest movies of the year, so it is hard to have a decent shot if you come in at the end like TS did. Look how well Wolverine did, and it dropped May first. And both Star Trek and TS are better than that pile.

 

[terry78]

They should have saved this **** for June. Aside from Transformers, next month is mostly family flicks, comedies, and remakes of older properties.

 

[Crook]

I have a good feeling Bale will be back, in T5 and even T6.

I hope so. I can't handle Connor being recast again.

This film doesn't look like it's going to make it's budget back, on the domestic take. It probably won't fare better overseas either.

What makes ya'll think there will even be a sequel?

 

[Nina7]

Terminator Salvation is being distributed by Sony in most overseas countries and they didn't want it to compete with their other release, Angels & Demons. A&D is the biggest film of the year oveseas (almost $200m after two weekends) so it's a wise decision.

In Korea, TS is distributed by a local distributor and opened with a massive $7.4m. For comparison, Wolverine and Star Trek both opened with $2.1m and A&D $3.6m.

This is one movie where the overseas earnings are very important. Sony paid more for the overseas distribution than WB did for the domestic (I've seen figures of $75m/$50m and higher). That reflects the greater success of T3 overseas.

I think TS will make a ton of money overseas. I knew how well this movie is doing in South Korea. My friend is teaching English over there and he said the movie is massively popular. I think it'll make a killing in Japan as well.

 

[Episode29]

I think TS will make a ton of money overseas. I knew how well this movie is doing in South Korea. My friend is teaching English over there and he said the movie is massively popular. I think it'll make a killing in Japan as well.

Well, if your friend says so....

 

[FCEEVIPER]

This film doesn't look like it's going to make it's budget back, on the domestic take. It probably won't fare better overseas either.

What makes ya'll think there will even be a sequel?

This has been planned as a trilogy from the beginning and I'm sure Halcyon knew not all three would be huge hits.

T5 may have a smaller budget, and hopefully better writers.

After the total BO tickets sales counted, DVD/DB sales counted, and the merch sales are counted, there will be a T5, and also a T6. Call me wishful or hopeful, but they will be made.

 

[Alonsovich]

I've read somewhere that T3 was highly profitable for WB with a 150 million BO due to only putting 50 million for the budget... didn't they put 60 for TS? The real question here will be to know if Sony get back the 100 million internationally... that's the really risky one.

 

[dark_b]

This has been planned as a trilogy from the beginning and I'm sure Halcyon knew not all three would be huge hits.

T5 may have a smaller budget, and hopefully better writers.

After the total BO tickets sales counted, DVD/DB sales counted, and the merch sales are counted, there will be a T5, and also a T6. Call me wishful or hopeful, but they will be made.

denial.................ohhh yeah

i am no BO expert but even i know when someone is in denial.

p.s. whats up with todays kids? when i was a little kid parents watched what i wanted not what they wanted. i would scream.........................

 

[Eric Brooks]

They should have saved this **** for June. Aside from Transformers, next month is mostly family flicks, comedies, and remakes of older properties.

or even July

what's coming out in July that Salvation couldn't wait?

besides, I would have preferred to have gotten it right in the peak of summer. Freaking July would have been a much better month for this film

 

[baerrtt]

Could it simply be, and I know this has been said by others, that whilst the Terminator universe is big enough to tell a variety of stories which supports James Cameron's storytelling intentions all those years ago that to the general public the franchise's star/main character will always be Arnie's Terminator(good, bad, different model etc) and not Sarah (hence the fate of the tv series) or John Connor?

When your average joe, as opposed to fanboy, thinks Terminator he thinks of the over-muscled man in shades, wearing a black leather jacket riding on a motorcycle. Some may see it as a foolish sentiment but it wouldn't surprise me if there was audience resistance along the lines of 'This is like watching a Bond movie where M is the lead character'.

Ultimately was it a mistake for the filmmakers to believe they could re-establish this franchise without the main reason, like it or not, people plugged into this universe in the first place?

 

[Eric Brooks]

Could it simply be, and I know this has been said by others, that whilst the Terminator universe is big enough to tell a variety of stories which supports James Cameron's storytelling intentions all those years ago that to the general public the franchise's star/main character will always be Arnie's Terminator(good, bad, different model etc) and not Sarah (hence the fate of the tv series) or John Connor?

When your average joe, as opposed to fanboy, thinks Terminator he thinks of the over-muscled man in shades, wearing a black leather jacket riding on a motorcycle. Some may see it as a foolish sentiment but it wouldn't surprise me if there was audience resistance along the lines of 'This is like watching a Bond movie where M is the lead character'.

Ultimately was it a mistake for the filmmakers to believe they could re-establish this franchise without the main reason, like it or not, people plugged into this universe in the first place?

I think that may play a role, but a very small role in both Salvation and the tv series flopping. I really don't think this franchise is as reliant on Arnold as some may like to believe.

the tv series just needed better writing, possibly better casting as well. Plus, I still fully believe that the idea of a female cyborg protecting John Connor (as oppose to a male bodybuilder) plays a part as well. I know I for one don't really like it but look past it because Summer is a cutie and does such a fine job with the role. A lot of things went wrong with this show, the absence of Arnold isn't one of them

as far as Salvation, I HONESTLY, WHOLE HEARTEDLY believe that it was just released too early, along with too many blockbusters. Of course a comedy starring BEN FREAKING STILLER is going to do better on "memorial day weekend" than a huge action sci fi flick

I fully believe releasing this movie in either July or even August would have made that much of a difference

 

[matrix_ghost]

or even July

what's coming out in July that Salvation couldn't wait?

besides, I would have preferred to have gotten it right in the peak of summer. Freaking July would have been a much better month for this film

WB's other franchise.
Harry Potter

 

[Eric Brooks]

WB's other franchise.
Harry Potter

what's WB's "other franchise"?

 

[RKO]

Harry motherf*****g Potter.

 

[Eric Brooks]

Harry motherf*****g Potter.

ah, he had it in "list form" so it looked like he was listing two different movies

 

[Eric Brooks]

eh, I think WB messed up on the release dates of their films this year IMHO. I know if I were in charge I would have done things differently

Harry Potter (to me at least) seems more like an August/September/October film, or a film you would release in the Fall whereas the Terminator franchise (more so Salvation than the previous films, due to it being more action oriented) should've been released in July. (How did it not scream PEAK OF SUMMER) is beyond me. That's just something that should have been released right smack dab in the middle of Summer

my stance on it, WB messed up, NOT the people behind the film.

 

[DarKush]

Could it simply be, and I know this has been said by others, that whilst the Terminator universe is big enough to tell a variety of stories which supports James Cameron's storytelling intentions all those years ago that to the general public the franchise's star/main character will always be Arnie's Terminator(good, bad, different model etc) and not Sarah (hence the fate of the tv series) or John Connor?

When your average joe, as opposed to fanboy, thinks Terminator he thinks of the over-muscled man in shades, wearing a black leather jacket riding on a motorcycle. Some may see it as a foolish sentiment but it wouldn't surprise me if there was audience resistance along the lines of 'This is like watching a Bond movie where M is the lead character'.

Ultimately was it a mistake for the filmmakers to believe they could re-establish this franchise without the main reason, like it or not, people plugged into this universe in the first place?

I think TSCC failed because of poor writing primarily and a loss of focus on John's development the second mid-season. They swung back to getting on track toward the end but it was too late. When you have back-to-back shows with Sarah questioning her sanity or having hallucinations, and dragging out storylines like Riley, Jessie, and John Henry, and you keep some of the more cooler characters in the stir, like Derek and Cameron, it made for a boring show. For long periods no one was doing anything. Plus, John Connor got lost in the mix, and they didn't do a good job of keeping it on his development as a future leader. Some of the threads/arcs they were building were interesting, for example some machines opposed to Skynet but they took too long getting there.

Plus, Fox didn't help them by shifting the show to Fridays. That being said, Fox did give TSCC two seasons to make a mark. The second season just wasn't as tightly focused or action packed as the first season.

As for the movie franchise, I don't think they need Arnold as much as they need good storylines and engaging characters. Yes, Arnold is a big part of Terminator's success and always will be, but I don't think he needs to be part of every incarnation. The storyline and universe are big enough, engaging enough to move beyond Arnold but so far they just haven't found the right mix to be successful without him. And might I add, that even with Arnold in T3, it underperformed, though it still was doing better than Salvation.

 

[Lord Blackbolt]

WB only put in 60 million ....they will make that back domestically easy. Sony....well....maybe they might make their money back. We'll see.

 

[Kanon]

worldwide it will be bad too, 'cause Sony is doing the distribution, and always releases the movies a few weeks later overseas... Paramount doesn't, so Salvation will have less time until the release of Transformers in a lot of territories...

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

As per Clint Morris of Moviehole, word around the campfire is the Terminator franchise is going "the way of a poorly cat!"

 

[matrix_ghost]

eh, I think WB messed up on the release dates of their films this year IMHO. I know if I were in charge I would have done things differently

Harry Potter (to me at least) seems more like an August/September/October film, or a film you would release in the Fall whereas the Terminator franchise (more so Salvation than the previous films, due to it being more action oriented) should've been released in July. (How did it not scream PEAK OF SUMMER) is beyond me. That's just something that should have been released right smack dab in the middle of Summer

my stance on it, WB messed up, NOT the people behind the film.

WB like all studios is looking at which dates (their) movies perform best.
If you look at the Potter movies released so far , you'll see that the July and November releases have brought in the most cast in domestic and foreign sales . The one Potter movie that opened in May was also the one that made the least money domestic
Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone 16 November 2001
domestic $317.6 million
WW $976,475,550
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets 15 November 2002
domestic $261,987,880
WW $878,988,482
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban31 May 2004[ /B]
domestic $249,538,952
WW $795,538,952
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire 18 November 2005
domestic $290,013,036
WW $896,016,159
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix 11 July 2007
Domestic $292,004,738
WW $938,468,864


It is a fact that franchises like POtter and since last year Batman have a huge impact on the financial status of WB. So much so that the BO sales can compensate for any losses caused by other movies.
In 2008 TDK and Harry Potter & The Halfblood Prince would've been released in the same year. TDK in July and POtter in November. When TDK made so much money , WB decided to push back Potter to this year.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/7562557.stm

Alan Horn, president of studio Warner Bros, said the decision was taken to guarantee the studio a major summer blockbuster in 2009.

While we all can argue whether T:S was released in the right month or not , in the end there really is no guarantee that a movie will a blockbuster until the day it opens. There are very few movies where advance WOM have been so good that the studio knew that their movie would become a hit. Recent examples include 300 , Star Trek & Transformers.

Because of this uncertainty studios need sure-fire blockbusters to compensate the (potential) losses of their other movies. Watchmen underperformed , T:S opening weekend "disappointed" although it's still to early to say how the movie will perform over the next few weeks.
WB had success in JUly '07 with the last Potter movie , despite heavy competition from Transformers ( and other May releases) and also in JUly '08 with TDK. Which is why they went ahead with Potter in July instead of T:S

 

[Celestial]

British schools break for the summer in mid-July and the Harry Potter release is perfectly timed to exploit this. In contrast, Terminator Salvation is being released just after the half-term break at a time when many older school pupils will be doing exams.

 

[nintendo nerd]

I love when people start blaming the release date as why the movie failed at the BO.

 

[Eric Brooks]

I love when people start blaming the release date as why the movie failed at the BO.

jesus christ, do you have a problem or something?

Did I type something that just rubbed you the wrong way, because if that was aimed at me then you seriously need an attitude adjustment

It's called an opinion, and it's my strong OPINION that it MAY HAVE done better in July as oppose to May. Never stated it as fact

and is there something wrong with holding that opinion? It's a thought, it's an idea, it's the very reason this message board is even here as EVERYTHING is open for discussion


seriously, if you can't handle an opinion, I think you need to take some time off and leave the boards (possibly internet) and think to yourself why you make such idiotic comments

 

[Eric Brooks]

yea, I just love it when nerds on the internet think they have it all figured out