Terminator Salvation: Box Office Prediction/Discussion

[FilmNerdJamie]

Awww. You actually think you know what you're talking about. How cute.

 

[Showtime]

There were many factors that killed this flick. Not having any sort of fanbase, ie nobody cared was sure one of them. WOM was certainly part of it, as was the critics. There isn't any one opinion or theory that is right, they all contributed.

 

[dark_b]

dont fight guys.
we are all part of the same team.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Alright, alright. We'll lay off one another and agree to disagree.

Anyone else remember how everyone was saying a year ago that the trailers for Watchmen, Body of Lies and T4 being in front of The Dark Knight was a big deal? Cut to none of those three films igniting the box-office.

 

[BestGirl]

1. I was talking about how Star Trek has a stronger fanbase aka nerds that have kept it alive over the years through various mediums (i.e. film, television, comics, literature, etc.) Terminator doesn't have anywhere near that.

2. Actually the Sarah Connor Chronicles' ratings took a huge nose dive after the first few episodes. The fact that it got a second season was nothing short of a miracle. It moving to Friday didn't do any damage to the series that didn't already have.

3. The reason why Terminator: Salvation is doing badly is because the interest in that franchise from the general public is more or less gone.

4. If by "fanboy spouting off bs" translates to "someone who actually knows what he's talking about," then you'd be correct.

I think if TS had been a good or fun movie it could've had a Star Trek like run, i.e. middling OW but great legs. The fact that it's mediocre movie hasn't rekindled any interest in this franchise.

 

[dark_b]

Alright, alright. We'll lay off one another and agree to disagree.

Anyone else remember how everyone was saying a year ago that the trailers for Watchmen, Body of Lies and T4 being in front of The Dark Knight was a big deal? Cut to none of those three films igniting the box-office.

touche

 

[Nivek]

4. If by "fanboy spouting off bs" translates to "someone who actually knows what he's talking about," then you'd be correct.

just ignore him, he's been Trolling in this forum for a while trying to stir up anyone who liked the film.

 

[M.O.Steel]

I love when fanboys spout off bs and then call it "the truth of the matter". Star Trek was a dead in the water franchise before this reboot. It was over, the last show flopped, the last couple movies floped and even when it was popular no Star Trek film came close to grossing as much as T2. Plus Star Trek was always associated with nerds so that was a much harder sell to the general public then TS was. The difference is that Star Trek delivered, TS did not. TS would've opened with over 80 million dollars if it wasn't for the fact that by friday everyone who saw it thursday was at work telling everyone how much it sucked, and the critics helped anyone who was unsure about it not waste their money. Nobody associates this movie with Sarah Connor Chronicles and the show failed because it was on fridays when nobody is home to watch it.

i agree. saying there's more interest in star trek than terminator is crazy. terminator and arnold were much more mainstrem than star trek ever was. i hate to break to fans, but the trekkies are not enough to make a movie successful.

Star trek delivered, TS didn't.

the show didn't do bad becuase it's on fridays. it's on fridays because it was doing bad. that's like saying hospice killed your grandmother. friday is called the death slot, where shows go to die.

but i honestly felt that TS would have made more money if it came out insead of T3, during that time. i remember everyone was going CRAZY over T3 pre-release. and if it had been a good movie, then it would have made things easier.

 

[Rishi]

It'It has everything to do with the critics and pre-release reviews. Everyone thinks the movies a stinker but the people I know who've seen it all like it.

 

[dark_b]

i dont think a lot of people read reviews at the beginning.

 

[chaseter]

i agree. saying there's more interest in star trek than terminator is crazy. terminator and arnold were much more mainstrem than star trek ever was. i hate to break to fans, but the trekkies are not enough to make a movie successful.

Star trek delivered, TS didn't.

the show didn't do bad becuase it's on fridays. it's on fridays because it was doing bad. that's like saying hospice killed your grandmother. friday is called the death slot, where shows go to die.

but i honestly felt that TS would have made more money if it came out insead of T3, during that time. i remember everyone was going CRAZY over T3 pre-release. and if it had been a good movie, then it would have made things easier.

This is just like X-Men Origins: Wolverine. Terminator 2 was a great film, X2 was a great film. The third films come out and have massive hype and fan buzz. Both films are stinkers but still do good. Now the 4th films come out and people are weary even though it is filled with big names and a big budget and both films are mediocre. Now, the 5th films of both of these franchises have a huge hurdle to pass if they want to get back on top and they must make really good films next go around.

 

[Rishi]

i dont think a lot of people read reviews at the beginning.

The tomatometer is powerful

 

[M.O.Steel]

This is just like X-Men Origins: Wolverine. Terminator 2 was a great film, X2 was a great film. The third films come out and have massive hype and fan buzz. Both films are stinkers but still do good. Now the 4th films come out and people are weary even though it is filled with big names and a big budget and both films are mediocre. Now, the 5th films of both of these franchises have a huge hurdle to pass if they want to get back on top and they must make really good films next go around.

EXACTLY. it's just been way too saturated. X3 did well because of the other two movies (i actually though it was ok, but could have been WAY WAY better). i feel spidey 4 will have teh same problems.

people are just eagerly waiting for the 3rd Batman film. if it ends up being terrible, then same thing will happen again. there's a think line between "I love this and can't get enough of it" and "another one?!" somehow bond has lasted 23 films. jeez.

 

[bullets]

Over saturation is supposedly what did in Star Trek .I'm kind of worried that is about to happen in the Bourne franchise. Bond kind of changes with the times so it's endured.

 

[Nightmare]

i dont think a lot of people read reviews at the beginning.

Clearly not. Wovlerine being leaked online didnt stop its box office for the first week.

 

[Nivek]

Clearly not. Wovlerine being leaked online didnt stop its box office for the first week.

The fan response to Wolverine was soundly negative, and people still flocked to it.

 

[M.O.Steel]

Over saturation is supposedly what did in Star Trek .I'm kind of worried that is about to happen in the Bourne franchise. Bond kind of changes with the times so it's endured.

bourne franchise? why? they are done with it as far as i know. matt said he would not return, atleast not for a while, espeically without a good story.

bond is amazing. i agree that's why persisted for so long.

 

[Episode29]

bourne franchise? why? they are done with it as far as i know. matt said he would not return, atleast not for a while, espeically without a good story.

Bourne 4 is happening.

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117994152.html?categoryid=13&cs=1

 

[M.O.Steel]

Bourne 4 is happening.

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117994152.html?categoryid=13&cs=1

wow...thanks for the article.

and $227 mil domestic; man, really puts SR, wolvie, watchmen, and this to shame.

 

[M.O.Steel]

The fan response to Wolverine was soundly negative, and people still flocked to it.

flocked is a strong word. it's not going to break 200 mil domestic. whatever money it made, it was because it was the official first movie of the summer, with no competition.

 

[Excel]

I dont see why anybody is totally shocked this failed. It was always tough to predict and early on seemed to be going for the higher point of expectations; but there was a definite late breakdown in just about every level-tv spots towards the end were non existant; reviews were garbage; everything it seemed to going for it early dissappeared.

Ask yourself. Was there any real demand for a 4th Terminator film? (A hint: seeing as there wasnt any demand for a 3rd...what do you think of a 4th?) If the answer is NO (which it is), than the film was facing an uphill battle all along.

I would have to say that lacking a die hard fanbase seriously hurts it; the die hards are the base of a films buzz and the idea is that it will overflow into the general public like it did last year with TDK and the year before with Transformers. The idea is that the film makes general audiences understand why the die hard geeks love the property, and that causes the enthusiasm surrounding the project to transition from geeks to the general public. When a film like Terminator has no geeks to kickstart the hype, it makes it very hard for it to do anything #'s that are normaly considered "decent", i.e. a total of 130-150.

I have trouble placing the blame on any one thing; its a culmination of dozens of things; from poor reviews to Treks break out to a late break down in marketing to the just total lack of demand; pinpointing a reason why it failed is simplifying the process.

As Norm stated, McG needs to stick to action. This film reminds me of Michael Bays PEARL HARBOR; Mcg is trying so damn hard to be something hes not that the whole film feels forced (which it is) outside of the action scenes, where the director is clearly more comfortable.

 

[M.O.Steel]

I dont see why anybody is totally shocked this failed. It was always tough to predict and early on seemed to be going for the higher point of expectations; but there was a definite late breakdown in just about every level-tv spots towards the end were non existant; reviews were garbage; everything it seemed to going for it early dissappeared.

Ask yourself. Was there any real demand for a 4th Terminator film? (A hint: seeing as there wasnt any demand for a 3rd...what do you think of a 4th?) If the answer is NO (which it is), than the film was facing an uphill battle all along.

I would have to say that lacking a die hard fanbase seriously hurts it; the die hards are the base of a films buzz and the idea is that it will overflow into the general public like it did last year with TDK and the year before with Transformers. The idea is that the film makes general audiences understand why the die hard geeks love the property, and that causes the enthusiasm surrounding the project to transition from geeks to the general public. When a film like Terminator has no geeks to kickstart the hype, it makes it very hard for it to do anything #'s that are normaly considered "decent", i.e. a total of 130-150.

I have trouble placing the blame on any one thing; its a culmination of dozens of things; from poor reviews to Treks break out to a late break down in marketing to the just total lack of demand; pinpointing a reason why it failed is simplifying the process.

As Norm stated, McG needs to stick to action. This film reminds me of Michael Bays PEARL HARBOR; Mcg is trying so damn hard to be something hes not that the whole film feels forced (which it is) outside of the action scenes, where the director is clearly more comfortable.

i'm sorry, i can't agree with this at all. these "fanboys" need to grow up and realize that they don't mean jack to these movies.

was there a demand for an 11th star trek film? hell no. but the movie was awesome. previous many films were flops because it's not enough to gear to die-hard fans or relying only on. this one worked because it was geared towards the GA. transformers and TDK were not helped by "diehard" fans. it was successful because they were good films, with a good story. the Watchmen has a diehard following, didn't help did it.

these die-hard fans make up probably make up less than 1% of total gross, if that. and no, they have very little control over buzz. watchmen was one of the best adapted films of comic ever. he literally used the panels in place of storyboards.

 

[M.O.Steel]

i love how people say McG should do action movies. what the hell is the termiantor franchise? drama? romantic comedy? HAHAHAHAHAH

just because there are emotions and a some drama does not elevate it to anything more than an amazing action movie. people need to recognize what the terminator franchise really is.

 

[EnzoValenzetti]

What ends up in 4th, 5th and 6th places is anybody's guess. My box office gurus expect Warner Bros' disappointing Terminator 4: Salvation to probably end the weekend with $20M.

http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.c...17m-friday-55m-weekend-drag-me-to-hell-7m18m/

That's a +60% drop.

 

[Nina7]

That's a +60% drop.

TS opening weekend gross was 42.5 million. An estimated 20 million dollar gross this weekend would be about a 52% drop. The opening weekend total does not include Thursday's opening day or Memorial Day.