The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[ban1o]

MOS made 650M WW? Almost more than any other 2 Superman movies combined. And why are we comparing CBM with movies like Son of Mask lmao?

MOS had awful legs in NA, it dropped almost 70% it's second weekend. After it's OW most people were predicting like 320-350 million. While it was still a success, the legs weren't great.

 

[starkresilient]

it really is. anything lower than cap2 would be bad

 

[spiderman2]

86 million would be about has bad has you could think for a spider man movie sony may really have to rethinking going forward with the amazing spider man 3 and with the sinister six and venom and the amazing spider man 4 movies.

 

[Eddie]

MOS made 650M WW? Almost more than any other 2 Superman movies combined. And why are we comparing CBM with movies like Son of Mask lmao?

Son of the Mask is sorta kinda a comic book movie. The Mask was originally a comic. Technically it counts as a comic adaptation.

Anyway, I think the movie will do fairly well, but I think opening two weeks early internationally (at least in some countries) was a huge mistake. One week would have been fine. I get the feeling that the lukewarm reception had enough time to spread before the domestic release that it will scare a few potential audience members away. I was pretty sure it would do at least $10 million more than Cap 2 did on opening, mostly due to the better release date. Now I'm thinking it will be within $3 million of Cap.

 

[Tony Stark]

Is Deadline owned by Sony or something? Every single article they make on TASM2 blatantly tries to spin the performance of the movie in a positive light when it's plain clear in reality that it is trending lower than the first movie and they know it. Really disingenuous. That "And it should" line is really suspicious.

I realize you're being facetious, but for those who would take what you said and run with it, Penske has no ties to Sony.

If Deadline appears positive it's only because Finke pretty much destroyed the reputation of Deadline and left it for dead, and Penske is having to clean up her mess.

It's no secret that Finke who was once a spot on source and was a founding member of Deadline. To say that she was off her game in recent years was an understatement.

Let me just say when you are running a business that is in media, and you lose out to your competitors, it's not good practice to send emails to those companies saying "I'm gong to **ck you over!" Which is what Niki did, which is why she got fired.

Deadline is trying to put a happy face on things because Penske is trying to rebuild the reputation of a company that was severely damaged my Finke.

so no this has nothing to do with Sony.

 

[ban1o]

86 would be awful I think. SM1 made 115 million OW without out 14 years of inflation or 3D. (Granted it did beat the OW record at the time). I don't think it would be that low. I'm thinking like 95-100 million OW.

 

[Mr. Dent]

so I am confused that one link sounds like it is going to do while with a 30% higher then the first one but the other one saids something about 86 million. I am thinking the movie will have a 105 OW and we end at usa of 280 outside 520 for 800 told.

If you read that article from Deadline they even call themselves out on that BS "30% increase" by pointing out that TASM2 opened on a Wednesday in 2012 and as a result the weekend gross was $64m, but the 4 day total was something like $114m. So technically TASM2 is tracking 30% ahead with around a $90m debut, but that's only because it doesn't have an extra day in the middle of the week to take money away from it for the weekend. In actuality it's tracking behind TASM. That's why I questioned whether Deadline is owned by SOny or not with the way they're trying to spin every bit of news about this film as positive.

The movie is nearly locked to make less than a $100m opening.

 

[ban1o]

If you read that article from Deadline they even call themselves out on that BS "30% increase" by pointing out that TASM2 opened on a Wednesday in 2012 and as a result the weekend gross was $64m, but the 4 day total was something like $114m. So technically TASM2 is tracking 30% ahead with around a $90m debut, but that's only because it doesn't have an extra day in the middle of the week to take money away from it for the weekend. In actuality it's tracking behind TASM. That's why I questioned whether Deadline is owned by SOny or not with the way they're trying to spin every bit of news about this film as positive.

The movie is nearly locked to make less than a $100m opening.

TASM opened on a Tuesday not a Wednesday.

 

[Mr. Dent]

I realize you're being facetious, but for those who would take what you said and run with it, Penske has no ties to Sony.

If Deadline appears positive it's only because Finke pretty much destroyed the reputation of Deadline and left it for dead, and Penske is having to clean up her mess.

It's no secret that Finke who was once a spot on source and was a founding member of Deadline. To say that she was off her game in recent years was an understatement.

Let me just say when you are running a business that is in media, and you lose out to your competitors, it's not good practice to send emails to those companies saying "I'm gong to **ck you over!" Which is what Niki did, which is why she got fired.

Deadline is trying to put a happy face on things because Penske is trying to rebuild the reputation of a company that was severely damaged my Finke.

so no this has nothing to do with Sony.

Yeah I didn't mean it literally, it's just that how they don't touch on any of the negative ramifications of these numbers and try to spin them as completely positive was strange to me.

TASM opened on a Tuesday not a Wednesday.

Even more to my point.

 

[CaptainCraig]

it really is. anything lower than cap2 would be bad

Yep, Cap2 is headed north of $250m or within spitting distance of TASM.
So under Cap2 means well below it's own predecessor.

This film series has only declined in returns since the first one debuted. I don't think we should really be surprised. It's frankly performed like Fox's X-Men films, all performing downwardly since X3:TLS through The Wolverine. Will DOFP change that? It's not looking like TASM2 is going to but the jury is out.

 

[Tony Stark]

If you read that article from Deadline they even call themselves out on that BS "30% increase" by pointing out that TASM2 opened on a Wednesday in 2012 and as a result the weekend gross was $64m, but the 4 day total was something like $114m. So technically TASM2 is tracking 30% ahead with around a $90m debut, but that's only because it doesn't have an extra day in the middle of the week to take money away from it for the weekend. In actuality it's tracking behind TASM. That's why I questioned whether Deadline is owned by SOny or not with the way they're trying to spin every bit of news about this film as positive.

The movie is nearly locked to make less than a $100m opening.

I totally get what you're saying. Again they are playing nice with their sources, and sugar coating them, because Nikki destroyed the companies reputation. It's not that they're trying to spin it, they are trying to appear appreciative about inside information they are getting from studio sources, because if those sources dry up their business is dead.

I'm not saying it's right, but its the reality of the media business world. It's sort of like how some sports reporters will sugar coat athlete's poor performances because they know they will get shut out from interviews if they ask too tough of a question, or make someone look bad.

 

[spiderman2]

yeah but the first one made a lot because it was the first time seeing spider man on the big screen. I don't know why the second one made worse. The 3erd one had bad WOF. The amazing spider man was a reboot so of course it made less. This one isn't a reboot and has less combitin then the first one had with no avengers and no dark knight rises. If it makes less then the first one that would be tearble really it shouldn't make less then 300 in usa and 500 out side for 800 if it does sony needs to rethink things and make some big changes ASAP!

 

[ban1o]

yeah but the first one made a lot because it was the first time seeing spider man on the big screen. I don't know why the second one made worse. The 3erd one had bad WOF. The amazing spider man was a reboot so of course it made less. This one isn't a reboot and has less combitin then the first one had with no avengers and no dark knight rises. If it makes less then the first one that would be tearble really it shouldn't make less then 300 in usa and 500 out side for 800 if it does sony needs to rethink things and make some big changes ASAP!

I think the second one did worse because it had a horrible release date. It onnly dropped by a little and still made a lot, especially for 2004 (375 million is a lot without 3d or inflation) SM3 had a huge opening weekend and broke the record at the time but since it pretty bad movie, the word of mouth was terrible. Hopefully this has better WOM than SM3 to compensate for it's possible low OW.

 

[Spiderdevil]

If I was the Head of Sony, I would sell the rights back to Marvel as soon as the box office is done

Quit while you are still ahead, this will be lucky to crack 700M mark

Lets face it, Spidey isnt as profitable as he once was.Webb has really run the character into the ground. Its better if Marvel gets a chance to run their magic on him

And this isnt Bond, you can't turn things around like Skyfall. Bond films are mostly stand alone films so they can always churn up a completely different plot and make a better movie, but Sony has really dug themselves in deep ***** with the whole universe building which crashed before it took off and it can't be swept under a rug now

 

[JKKS085]

If they "sat" on TASM3 that long they'd probably lose the rights. This is the dilemma for Sony, they can't just give the property a break because if they take longer than 3-4 years it seams like they'll lose the rights. It's pretty apparent Sony had to sale Marvel the animation rights to get an extension on TASM between SM3.

I know it has been discussed at length when they launched the reboot, but I thought the general consensus on that matter it that Sony had to put a Spider-Man film in production every four years in order to retain the rights. But I might be wrong since it was back in 2010 (and things may hve changed as well).

If it is any less than that then they are bound to lose the rights eventually because things don't get any better on the front of the "Spider-Man fatigue" (or at least lack of "Spider-Man envy"), and releasing more and more movies won't help. And I'm not even talking about the inevitable re-reboot.

I really thing that it's not about the quality of the films anymore (even though it has to play a role at some point). In my opinion it's just a case of lack of balance between supply and demand.

And finally what makes it even worse from a business standpoint is that Sony keeps on making Spider-Man flicks than are more and more expensive and less and less profitable.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

so I am confused that one link sounds like it is going to do while with a 30% higher then the first one but the other one saids something about 86 million. I am thinking the movie will have a 105 OW and we end at usa of 280 outside 520 for 800 told.

The problem here is the 30% higher, is being applied to the opening weekend. TASM opened on a Tuesday, so the opening weekend wasn't really the opening.

 

[spiderman2]

yeah I didn't relize that about the OW thing with this movie compared to the first one.

 

[Lord]

I think SONY shot themselves in the foot for rebooting so soon while the original Trilogy was still hot. Spider-Man 3 did face a negative critical reception, but the general public still seemed to like it. The 5 year hiatus along with reboot is what i think made a lot of people completely lose interest in this franchise.

If I was the Head of Sony, I would sell the rights back to Marvel as soon as the box office is done

Quit while you are still ahead, this will be lucky to crack 700M mark

Lets face it, Spidey isnt as profitable as he once was.Webb has really run the character into the ground. Its better if Marvel gets a chance to run their magic on him

Why would you sell your biggest franchise? SONY doesn't even get full profit for James Bond.

 

[spiderman2]

yeah spider man 3 was not hatied has much has people make it out to be. It may have been better to make spider man 4 and 5 like there was talk about doing then take a few years off and reboot.

 

[Tony Stark]

The elephant in the room is that Avi Arad should not be allowed around these properties anymore. I think he was good for these films in the beginning, but after a while he was a hindrance. He was all but shut out of the Iron Man production save the casting of Terrance Howard. After being fired from Marvel Studios, he had connections at Sony to stay on with Spider-man, but he's one of the big reasons for the problems with Spider-man 3.

 

[Eddie]

All it takes is listening to some commentary tracks to realize that Avi Arad is a HUGE part of the problem. IIRC he once went on about some "Docky Ocky" nonsense as a potential sequel idea for the Raimi films. Avi Arad should not be involved in the creative process at all.

 

[Arach Knight]

MOS had awful legs in NA, it dropped almost 70% it's second weekend. After it's OW most people were predicting like 320-350 million. While it was still a success, the legs weren't great.

I see this film having a similar performance to Man of Steel. That is why my prediction has not shifted. I am sticking with $550-650 million. That isn't bad by any means in terms of budget to gross ratio, but compared to the expectation, the disparity will be palpable.

 

[Eddie]

I see this film having a similar performance to Man of Steel. That is why my prediction has not shifted. I am sticking with $550-650 million. That isn't bad by any means in terms of budget to gross ratio, but compared to the expectation, the disparity will be palpable.

That IS bad in terms of budget to gross ratio if the deadline report is accurate. Remember, Sony doesn't see that merchandise money that helps other blockbusters. That's all Disney money.

 

[Lord]

Didn't SONY also spend on marketing almost as much as they did on the film itself? The film only making around 550-650 million is going to make them feel like fools.

 

[Eddie]

Sony changed their forecast for company performance. They were anticipating a loss of a little over a billion (yes, that's a b) dollars. They're now anticipating a loss of $200 million more than that. If this movie loses money their investors may very well pressure them to sell off the rights.