The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[Zarex]

Sony wants Avengers money. Not Defenders money.

I'm sure that's true. But I doubt Marvel would ever offer to crossover Avengers characters into a Sony Spider-Man film due to contract issues and the fact that the Avengers franchise doesn't need any help. A Defenders crossover brings Spidey into the MCU, gives him popular Marvel characters with which to interact and could invigorate the series, especially if the Netflix series do well. It's not the Avengers. But it's not nothing.

 

[JKKS085]

If the current trend at the BO continues i.e. lower domestic numbers, stable-ish international grosses, increasing production and marketing budget, then Sony's Spider-Man is pretty much dead after TASM3.

They won't be able to reboot once again, renegociating contracts for Garfield/Fields/Dehaan/Cooper or whoever's left from the first trilogy will likely make the budget go through the rough and with poor economic prospects overall I can't seem them churning in more money to keep a decaying franchise alive.

Maybe they'll try to put pressure on Disney by putting a film in production and conduct back-channel negotiations to transfer the rights back to Marvel for a fee. Or they'll just let things go as they won't really have the choice to do otherwise.

 

[los pollos]

Spidey is in a completely different situation than either the X-Men or the FF. Due to contracts signed back in the 1990s, Disney is making next to nothing on the FOX films. And since neither property moves merchandise, both character families are practically worthless to the Mouse so long as the film rights reside elsewhere.

Spider-Man is an extremely profitable character for Disney/Marvel, the #1 superhero in the world in terms of licensing fees. Go to the Disney Website - despite the film rights residing at Sony he is given equal standing to the Avengers characters. Disney/Marvel would love to regain the film rights, but having the character's popularity fade through poorly made Sony films is bad business for Disney. Disney likely could care less if the X-Men or FF film crash and burn - not so for Spider-Man.

While it's true he's one of Marvel's biggest individual character franchises, the fact that they don't have his film rights forces Marvel to dig deeper into their bag of characters and push them out into the limelight and put them on par with spider-man as a profitable franchise. The fact that an Iron Man movie is in the top 5 of the highest worldwide grossing movies of all time is proof of that. If they keep doing what they are doing and develop the characters they have, the lack of film rights for spider-man won't hurt them at all.

 

[terry78]

The irony is that Spider-Man is probably the most Disney-esque of the Marvel characters so I know it's killing them.

 

[Tobias]

While it's true he's one of Marvel's biggest individual character franchises, the fact that they don't have his film rights forces Marvel to dig deeper into their bag of characters and push them out into the limelight and put them on par with spider-man as a profitable franchise. The fact that an Iron Man movie is in the top 5 of the highest worldwide grossing movies of all time is proof of that. If they keep doing what they are doing and develop the characters they have, the lack of film rights for spider-man won't hurt them at all.

A blessing in disguise sort of.

WB has the problem it depends on Batman. And they are already re-launching him in 2016. All their TV shows and cartoons are mostly Bat-centric.

Its good Batman provides that foundation but it doesn't force WB to try other characters.

WB says that changes with JL and besides batman there will be a slew of new franchises from WW to Shazam to Aquaman or whomever.

Its easier said than done though and the fact Marvel had to look other places for its franchises has made them far more I'd bet than if they had had Spiderman all along.

 

[Tobias]

To get some numbers back in this thread...Tuesday brought in 2.904M (+29%).

Where will it be after Thursday's numbers and going into the weekend?

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

I'm sure that's true. But I doubt Marvel would ever offer to crossover Avengers characters into a Sony Spider-Man film due to contract issues and the fact that the Avengers franchise doesn't need any help. A Defenders crossover brings Spidey into the MCU, gives him popular Marvel characters with which to interact and could invigorate the series, especially if the Netflix series do well. It's not the Avengers. But it's not nothing.

The only things that will invigorate this series are A) A move back to Marvel and then being mothballed for about 5 years or B) The announcement that a great, big name/star director has taken the reigns to this franchise. A name that would not just send the fanboys into a frenzy, but make the GA sit up and take notice. And even that may be stretching it if that director is saddled with leftovers from the past. Neither will happen based on the studios track record, so the franchise will most likely limp on in mediocrity and eventually become critical & box office poison. So Sony loses and Disney loses when they get the last remaining scraps back.

 

[Tobias]

The only things that will invigorate this series is A) A move back to Marvel and then being mothballed for about 5 years or B) The announcement that a great, big name/star director has taken the reigns to this franchise. A name that would not just send the fanboys into a frenzy, but make the GA sit up and take notice. And even that may be stretching it if that director is saddled with leftovers from the past. Neither will happen based on the studios track record, so the franchise will most likely limp on in mediocrity and eventually become critical & box office poison.

I can see it now - Zac Effron to replace Andrew Garfield as Spiderman!

 

[Liam_H]

Where will it be after Thursday's numbers and going into the weekend?

Rough guess would be $155M give or take.

 

[TalismanRing]

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 held steady in second place with $2.90 million. In the process, Sony's expensive 3D superhero sequel surpassed the $150 million domestic mark yesterday. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 was up a very solid 29 percent over Monday, but was still down a sizable 53 percent from last Tuesday. With a twelve-day take of $151.36 million, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is currently running 1 percent ahead of the $150.04 million twelve-day take of last year's Thor: The Dark World and 9 percent behind the recent $167.07 million twelve-day gross of Captain America: The Winter Soldier.

http://www.boxoffice.com/latest-new...-the-amazing-spider-man-2-surpasses-150m-mark

If it drops 30% Wed that would mean about $2.1m and another 10% drop for Thu (which would be better than it's 33% and 13% last week) $1.9m Thur and around $155.4m total by Thur.

If it has the same jumps as last week

Fri: $5.38m (+183%)
Sat: $8.23m (+54.3%)
Sun: $5.35 (-35%)

= $18.96m which would be about a 47% drop

If Thur drops to $1.8 or $1.7m then you can subtract about $1-1.5m

 

[Tobias]

If it drops 30% Wed that would mean about $2.1m and another 10% drop for Thu (which would be better than it's 33% and 13% last week) $1.9m Thur and around $155.4m total by Thur.

If it has the same jumps as last week

Fri: $5.38m (+183%)
Sat: $8.23m (+54.3%)
Sun: $5.35 (-35%)

= $18.96m which would be about a 47% drop

If Thur drops to $1.8 or $1.7m then you can subtract about $1-1.5m

I think it'll drop more than 47% this coming weekend. it will lose screens to Godzilla. My guess is a 50% or 51% drop.

 

[TalismanRing]

It has so many screens that I don't think it would make much difference since they're not exactly packed and turning away business right now. It could lose 6,000 and it would still have over 5,000. In comparison Neighbors made almost $50m on 4,500 screens. It'll also still have IMAX and won't be losing any theaters until next week. SM3 only dropped 50% against a Shrek $120m opening in it's 3rd week. If it drops more than that it's because of WOM more than competition. But I agree it could drop 50% if it goes into Thur at around $1.7m.

 

[Spiderine]

Spidey is in a completely different situation than either the X-Men or the FF. Due to contracts signed back in the 1990s, Disney is making next to nothing on the FOX films. And since neither property moves merchandise, both character families are practically worthless to the Mouse so long as the film rights reside elsewhere.

Spider-Man is an extremely profitable character for Disney/Marvel, the #1 superhero in the world in terms of licensing fees. Go to the Disney Website - despite the film rights residing at Sony he is given equal standing to the Avengers characters. Disney/Marvel would love to regain the film rights, but having the character's popularity fade through poorly made Sony films is bad business for Disney. Disney likely could care less if the X-Men or FF film crash and burn - not so for Spider-Man.

I don't think Disney wants to see any of their other Marvel properties crash and burn. They are still all under the Marvel brand. Disney doesn't have any control in how Sony chooses to make its Spiderman films. They won't be able to change whatever they have planned. Sony is the one in an uncompromising position in regards to this franchise going forward. A lot will ride on this next Spidey film. Sony can't continue to make films that aren't profitable and are generating less and less returns. Its not feasible. Marvel is not lending characters to Sony to feature in their film. There is no doubt that ultimately they want the rights to every Marvel character back under the Disney umbrella. If Sony can't make more films that favors Disney.

 

[Liam_H]

Isn't this movie losing IMAX to Godzilla? At least the majority of its IMAX screens.

 

[los pollos]

A blessing in disguise sort of.

WB has the problem it depends on Batman. And they are already re-launching him in 2016. All their TV shows and cartoons are mostly Bat-centric.

Its good Batman provides that foundation but it doesn't force WB to try other characters.

WB says that changes with JL and besides batman there will be a slew of new franchises from WW to Shazam to Aquaman or whomever.

Its easier said than done though and the fact Marvel had to look other places for its franchises has made them far more I'd bet than if they had had Spiderman all along.

To be fair, WB did try to make Green Lantern their "Iron Man" in 2011, but they botched that by picking the wrong creative team to make the movie. I think that was one of the biggest bombs of recent memory along with John Carter and Battleship.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Sony wants Avengers money. Not Defenders money.

I don't know why, but this made me laugh pretty hard.

The irony is that Spider-Man is probably the most Disney-esque of the Marvel characters so I know it's killing them.

I'd say the Fantastic Four are the most "Disney" Marvel characters, but I see your point.

Isn't this movie losing IMAX to Godzilla? At least the majority of its IMAX screens.

Most likely yes.

 

[TalismanRing]

Isn't this movie losing IMAX to Godzilla? At least the majority of its IMAX screens.

Oh that's right. I wonder how long Godzilla will hold on to them with DOFP next week or is that getting IMAX with Maleficent coming on it's heels? It's a log jam.

 

[Tobias]

Isn't this movie losing IMAX to Godzilla? At least the majority of its IMAX screens.

I think so. That is why I see a 50% or 51% drop.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Oh that's right. I wonder how long Godzilla will hold on to them with DOFP next week or is that getting IMAX with Maleficent coming on it's heels? It's a log jam.

Depends on how well each does, and more importantly how much each studio gives the theaters.

 

[TalismanRing]

I think they usually have deals ahead of time. It's why IMAX was stuck pulling all it's theaters from CA2 and giving all it's theaters to Transcendence - for two weeks.

 

[rayc1971]

this movie cost 250mill that's the problem if you throw in sinister 6 how much would the budget be?give me a gritty spiderman film with kingpin and black cat or kraven and keep the budget down to around 170mill witch was cap2 and thor budget

 

[jmc]

Sony wants Avengers money. Not Defenders money.

And it's that mentality that's going to screw them up. Avengers box office was kind of a perfect storm one-off that came about due to the stars aligning perfectly. You can't just make an Avengers, or a Dark Knight, or an Avatar, or a Frozen, and expect a billion, they just kinda happen with a combination of skill and luck. You only get a billion dollars plus if the circumstances are in your favour. Seriously, Frozen is close to topping Iron Man 3 as being the biggest film of 2013, who would have seen that?

 

[spider-neil]

And it's that mentality that's going to screw them up. Avengers box office was kind of a perfect storm one-off that came about due to the stars aligning perfectly. You can't just make an Avengers, or a Dark Knight, or an Avatar, or a Frozen, and expect a billion, they just kinda happen with a combination of skill and luck. You only get a billion dollars plus if the circumstances are in your favour. Seriously, Frozen is close to topping Iron Man 3 as being the biggest film of 2013, who would have seen that?

Avengers = hype
TDK = hype
Avatar = hype

Frozen is unexpected.

 

[Liam_H]

Oh that's right. I wonder how long Godzilla will hold on to them with DOFP next week or is that getting IMAX with Maleficent coming on it's heels? It's a log jam.

IIRC, Godzilla-Maleficent-Edge of Tomorrow-HTTYD2-Transformers 4

So no, DOFP won't be getting them

 

[spider-neil]

HTTYD2

Can't wait for this. Made the mistake of skipping the first one in theatres. Was kicking myself when I saw the Blu ray.