The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[Joeyjojo72]

WB's predictions/ expectations were significantly higher. But if you thought it was "great" I guess that counts for something.

 

[bapi]

WB's predictions/ expectations were significantly higher. But if you thought it was "great" I guess that counts for something.

Jeff Robinov's 1 billion was as realistic as Amy Pascal's 1 billion for ASM2. (but yeah, I thought Spidey could make 900-920)

 

[spider-neil]

Cap while in the same universe as the Avengers, is not a sequel to the Avengers just like Iron Man 3 or Thor: The Dark World weren't sequels to Avengers. As a sequel to the First Avenger, it almost doubled the gross.

DofP has made more money ww in less than 2 weeks at the BO than any X-Men films.

Also the reviews for both have surpassed their predecessors.

TASM 2 went down in gross and in reviews. I mean, I'm not contesting it's popularity but their quality.

As far as the GA are concerned Cap 2 is following the Avengers.

 

[Erzengel]

I think the GA knows they wouldn't be seeing Thor, Iron Man or the Hulk in CA: TWS.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

If the GA thought Cap 2 was some sort of Avengers sequel it would have done over a billion dollars.

 

[Erzengel]

Speaking of CA: TWS, it's the WW leader for this year and 10k away from taking the domestic crown.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Speaking of CA: TWS, it's the WW leader for this year and 10k away from taking the domestic crown.

Well deserved run I think. Thor: The Dark World, TASM 2 and Days of Future Past didn't or aren't going to make over 255mil domestically. Cap is touching the A-listers in North America.

 

[JKKS085]

Putting aside Sony's gross spend, the numbers of people seeing ASM2 is similar to the numbers seeing Cap2 and DoFP, so what does that mean?

1) Less people are seeing superhero movies this year?
2) Spidey is now an 'also ran'?
3) B list characters are now making as movie money as A list characters?

There is another way to look at it, Spidey, with no Avengers bump and no Avengers-esque ensemble cast and a lukewarm reviews made similar numbers at the BO. The difference is it is likely Sony spent more so will see less bank.
So numbers wise (tickets sold rather than money made), are all 3 movies disappointments?

* Cap 2 came after the Avengers.
* DoFP had almost the entire original cast AND the FC cast together in a mega movie.
Both movies also were critically well received. So numbers wise are they disappointments?

Captain America and X-Men are up, significantly up, from previous installments in their respective franchises, Spidey is down. It's as simple as that.

When comparing numbers that first thing that'll come up in Sony's execs heads is that they spent ****loads of money on a film that is making less than its cheaper predecessor (while being a lot less profitable due to the domestic decline and the overseas growth being solely dependent on the chinese market where they will only get a fraction of the theater gross).

Then they will realize that while the genre is generally expanding (and even older franchises like X-Men show growth which contradicts the accepted idea of franchise fatigue) their audience is getting and smaller, film after film. They should also pay attention to the fact that the growing competition is now catching up on the Spider-Man brand (which used to be the top selling character and was clearly untouchable as a franchise barely 7 years ago) with more cost-effective films and/or B-list characters (I'm talking about CATWS here).

On the one hand there's steady growth, on the other a clear decline. You can spin the numbers all you want (and I appreciate your efforts) but you can't paint a sheer dissapointment into a success. Both CATWS and DoFP are or will be profitable films during the course of their theater runs, TASM2 will need tax-breaks and significant HV sales to just break even. And all in all they will be lucky to break even during the current financial year.

 

[Tobias]

Well deserved run I think. Thor: The Dark World, TASM 2 and Days of Future Past didn't or aren't going to make over 255mil domestically. Cap is touching the A-listers in North America.

Yes. Cap 2 has moved to A-lister status which I place at 750 million plus at the WW box. Spiderman is an A-lister too. TASM did more than 750 million. This is only a correction point IMO.

B-listers by the way can make big money too. Thor 2 is a perfect example.

Still, studios want A-listers and SONY will adjust accordingly to bring TASM3 up to the 750 million threshold.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Captain America and X-Men are up, significantly up, from previous installments in their respective franchises, Spidey is down. It's as simple as that.

When comparing numbers that first thing that'll come up in Sony's execs heads is that they spent ****loads of money on a film that is making less than its cheaper predecessor (while being a lot less profitable due to the domestic decline and the overseas growth being solely dependent on the chinese market where they will only get a fraction of the theater gross).

Then they will realize that while the genre is generally expanding (and even older franchises like X-Men show growth which contradicts the accepted idea of franchise fatigue) their audience is getting and smaller, film after film. They should also pay attention to the fact that the growing competition is now catching up on the Spider-Man brand (which used to be the top selling character and was clearly untouchable as a franchise barely 7 years ago) with more cost-effective films and/or B-list characters (I'm talking about CATWS here).

On the one hand there's steady growth, on the other a clear decline. You can spin the numbers all you want (and I appreciate your efforts) but you can't paint a sheer dissapointment into a success. Both CATWS and DoFP are or will be profitable films during the course of their theater runs, TASM2 will need tax-breaks and significant HV sales to just break even. And all in all they will be lucky to break even during the current financial year.

I always get dizzy when I come in here, it's nice to see this post.

 

[Erzengel]

I'm not a Spider-Man, Raimi, Webb hater. I want a good Spider-Man movie. I want a good CBM. When a movie is mediocre - bad, I have to call it out. I didn't want a bad FF or sequel. I didn't want X-3 or Wolverine Origins to stink. I didn't want Spider-Man 3 or TASM 2 to be mediocre.

I also try not to spin things just to make "my favorite" movie seem better than it is.

 

[Spiderine]

Actually... MoS 670M or so was a great result. That character is quite boring and Superman Returns was a big dissapointment. I was predicting 550-600 for MoS.

Yeah, I thought it did well considering it was a reboot that had to erase the stigma of SR. I don't know who in their right mind would have expected a billion or even close to it with those factors in mind.

Much like TAS1 it needed to earn the trust of the audience again after the SM3. Right the ship again. Thought it did very well. TAS2 was the one that should have taken it to another level. Instead of the penthouse it went down to the basement.

 

[Erzengel]

I wouldn't say the basement. More like 20th floor out of 40 floors?

I'm sure you can name 20 CB films worse as well as 20 CB films. better easily.

 

[Spiderine]

I wouldn't say the basement. More like 20th floor out of 40 floors?

I'm sure you can name 20 CB films worse as well as 20 CB films. better easily.

Isn't it in the basement of the franchise? What Spidey film did it make more than?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I still haven't read a legitimate explaination on why Sony would be pleased with their expanded universe 450 million dollar investment making 710-715mil? That is a decrease from the 752mil the first film made. Not only that but the reception wasn't good so that guarantees another decrease in 2016. I fail to see the good news. I see okay news in the international numbers because of China but that's about it. Even with China and the expanded market the film still can't reach Spider-Man 3 numbers.

 

[Erzengel]

If you're talking box office yes. In terms of quality, isn't it debatable that it's not the worst SM ever released? Not that second worse is better.

 

[Spiderine]

If you're talking box office yes. In terms of quality, isn't it debatable that it's not the worst SM ever released? Not that second worse is better.

Oh no, definitely not the worst I was referring to the franchise BO. It will sit at the bottom when it said and done.

 

[Erzengel]

So I just checked out how the average SHH poster rated TASM2.

http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=477303
119 out of 165 (72%) ranked this as a 7 or higher.

Well it would appear that the average SHH poster liked this movie.

However, let's see what other movies the SHH brain trust have liked.

http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=233278

That's right 312 posters rated X-3 5 out of 5 or "X-cellent".

http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=379495

And 224 posters rated X-Men Origins: Wolverine as 7 or higher.

http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=237842

And 729 posters rated Superman Returns as 7 or higher.

http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?p=11618976

And full circle to Spider-Man 3 which 869 posters rated it as 7 or higher.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Haha exept it's not. Including marketing costs & everything else, TASM 2 cost between $400-500 million altogether, & it is crawling to a $700 million worldwide gross with not even $200 million having been made domestically.

Now, MoS did cost a lot, but looking at the numbers it was more PROFITABLE than TASM 2 will ultimately be. So, just because the latter has a bigger number means absolutely nothing at all when you factor in all the variables.

Actually Man of Steel was profitable for Warner Bros. before the movie even came out due to advertising and merchandising deals.

 

[Tobias]

Whatever you think of TASM2 this is bigger than just that.

X_Men DOFP fell 64% this weekend and may not end up at much more than 200 million domestic.

DOFP has very good WOM and reviews yet it may end up underperforming expectations.

Is CBM fatigue beginning to show itself? Or is it too much CBM product being put out there? Or something else?

 

[Leenie]

Whatever you think of TASM2 this is bigger than just that.

X_Men DOFP fell 64% this weekend and may not end up at much more than 200 million domestic.

DOFP has very good WOM and reviews yet it may end up underperforming expectations.

Is CBM fatigue beginning to show itself? Or is it too much CBM product being put out there? Or something else?

I don't think CBM fatigue is taking place, honestly.

Here's what I think it is:

1. Huge hikes in ticket prices this year. I was dumbfounded when I went to a NON 3D screening of X-Men, and paid almost $15 for a ticket. Perhaps lots of people would rather just wait for Redbox, Blu-Ray, Netflix, etc. if they're going to fork over the money anyway?

2. May 2014 was ridiculous in terms of Summer movie competition. Every weekend had a big release and none of the May movies have had good legs. With big movie after big movie coming out (and factoring in the current ticket prices), I think people are becoming more selective in what they want to see (meaning they might not see a movie multiple times nowadays). I remember seeing the first Spider-Man movie FIVE times in Summer 2002, with the tickets costing me just $6 a pop. As much as I love the first Spider-Man movie, if that movie were out now with these current ticket prices, would I be seeing it five times? Probably not.

 

[Wildcard]

Actually Man of Steel was profitable for Warner Bros. before the movie even came out due to advertising and merchandising deals.

Cool, I didn't know that. You learn something new every day. And that's further proof of MoS being better than TASM 2 money wise. Sony doesn't keep any of the money that relates to merchandising, so it's a fail on that front too.

 

[JKKS085]

X_Men DOFP fell 64% this weekend and may not end up at much more than 200 million domestic.

Coming off memorial day week end. Which is the reason why the drop seems important. If the movie holds like X-Men The Last Stand, and it's doing a lot better so far, 210M or so is a lock. Worst case scenario, that's a 30% bump from First Class' domestic take (64M more). Fatigue and growth do not belong in the same sentence.

Days of Future past is already the biggest X-Men film ever (and even if it ends up lower than X-Men 3 domestically it won't be by a huge margin) just like Captain America The Winter Soldier ended up being the biggest MCU solo film behind Iron Man 3.

The only cbm franchise displaying a steep decline this year is Spider-Man. There is NO cbm fatigue.

 

[chaseter]

Putting aside Sony's gross spend, the numbers of people seeing ASM2 is similar to the numbers seeing Cap2 and DoFP, so what does that mean?

1) Less people are seeing superhero movies this year?
2) Spidey is now an 'also ran'?
3) B list characters are now making as movie money as A list characters?

There is another way to look at it, Spidey, with no Avengers bump and no Avengers-esque ensemble cast and a lukewarm reviews made similar numbers at the BO. The difference is it is likely Sony spent more so will see less bank.
So numbers wise (tickets sold rather than money made), are all 3 movies disappointments?

* Cap 2 came after the Avengers.
* DoFP had almost the entire original cast AND the FC cast together in a mega movie.
Both movies also were critically well received. So numbers wise are they disappointments?

People claim over saturation or superhero fatigue yet IM3 passed $1 billion last year and Avengers and TDKR both passed $1 billion in 2012. Next year Avengers 2 will do it again. This year we are seeing Cap 2 doubling Cap 1 and DoFP doubling First Class. Spidey is down, not everyone else.

 

[Mace Dolex]

Forgive my ignorance but why is China so important for B.O. totals or any other country for that matter, cultures are vastly different which is why foreign films always get limited releases in the U.S. even if they were successes in their own country?

Let's say as an example the next Adam Sandler film becomes a huge hit (perish the thought) in the U.S. but tanks terribly in other countries, it's obvious because the international market know a turd when they see one.

But still U.S. movie producers insist on making more Adam Sandler movies.