The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[TheWallCrawler]

You keep saying fanboy fantasy. What the **** are you going on about?!
I'll admit that is unlikely that Sony are allowed to sell on the rights for Spidey but I can't claim that as a fact as I haven't seen the contract and there has been zero reason for Sony to move the franchise on especially see as it is one of (if not 'THE') most profitable in their stable.
I'll concede the point though.

As for 'nose diving' the movie is on course to cross the 700m mark. That's nose diving?

well, as Marvel is very much connected to Sony's Spider-man licence, getting money from the movies and even now owning the merch rights, it would bring much unwanted complications if Sony (in theory) would sell the rights to let's say Fox. I'm not saying that it's technically impossible for Marvel, Sony and Fox to negotiate together for the spidey movie licence to be given to Fox, but it for sure isn't in Sony's Spider-man licence contract that they can sell it forward

 

[Bullseye1]

Well some leases are transferable.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

well, as Marvel is very much connected to Sony's Spider-man licence, getting money from the movies and even now owning the merch rights, it would bring much unwanted complications if Sony (in theory) would sell the rights to let's say Fox. I'm not saying that it's technically impossible for Marvel, Sony and Fox to negotiate together for the spidey movie licence to be given to Fox, but it for sure isn't in Sony's Spider-man licence contract that they can sell it forward

Marvel no longer makes money off the box office for Sony Spider-Man films. It was a part of the rights agreement.

Well some leases are transferable.

I am not saying it is impossible, but they would have needed some of the dumbest lawyers in history writing up the contract for that to happen. Especially considering Marvel/Disney own the character rights. It is so unlikely, I doubt it almost completely.

 

[TheWallCrawler]

Marvel no longer makes money off the box office for Sony Spider-Man films. It was a part of the rights agreement.


I am not saying it is impossible, but they would have needed some of the dumbest lawyers in history writing up the contract for that to happen. Especially considering Marvel/Disney own the character rights. It is so unlikely, I doubt it almost completely.

was about to say basically the same thing, so I'll just quote you on this one

 

[Erzengel]

You are never going to see a movie's financial statements unless they are leaked like that one for Goblet of Fire that shows that they actually lost money even though the movie grossed close to 1B.

To add to what Ms. Marvel said,, TASM made $752 million with a $230 budget. TASM2 is looking to makes less than that while spending more. Before someone brings up Spider-Man 1 and Spider-Man 2, it's apple and oranges when there's a decline in gross versus an increase in production when your movie still makes $373 domestically.

 

[Erzengel]

Well some leases are transferable.

I find it unlikely that Marvel would have leased away the movie rights for Spider-man but not having a way to have the rights reverted back to them.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

You are never going to see a movie's financial statements unless they are leaked like that one for Goblet of Fire that shows that they actually lost money even though the movie grossed close to 1B.

To add to what Ms. Marvel said,, TASM made $752 million with a $230 budget. TASM2 is looking to makes less than that while spending more. Before someone brings up Spider-Man 1 and Spider-Man 2, it's apple and oranges when there's a decline in gross versus an increase in production when your movie still makes $373 domestically.

That film was actually OotP, and it didn't actually lose money. Made quite a lot of money actually. But some creative and classic Hollywood accounting made it look like it lost money. The tacked on production cost for other films that lost money. They did this in an attempt to not pay bonuses on OotP big box office.

You are ignoring context. TASM made $750+ M, the budget for TASM2 was bigger, it's not doing well domestically which is a problem for the studios, the implication is that TASM3 will drop even harder domestically and this is the lowest the franchise has ever been.

Is 700m a big deal for Spidey though? Because now even Cap A is making that kind of money and he's only started to become popular in the public eye. Both movies are making similar money, but Cap's rising while Spidey is falling.

I don't know how I miss this, but exactly. This is the exact point.

I find it unlikely that Marvel would have leased away the movie rights for Spider-man but not having a way to have the rights reverted back to them.

Yeah, even if it is only first option, which I doubt, but they'd at the very least have that.

 

[Erzengel]

And based on everything I'm seeing online, it's saying that Marvel can buy back the rights to it's former properties or wait until they are longer profitable and the rights will revert back to them if a movie is not made in a sufficient amount of time.

If Sony could sell off Spider-Man to another studio, and said franchise could not get off the ground, regardless of the delay then the property would be reverted back to Marvel and whichever Studio would be out of luck.

 

[TheWallCrawler]

I find it unlikely that Marvel would have leased away the movie rights for Spider-man but not having a way to have the rights reverted back to them.

exactly. if they would be interested in the option that some other studio than themselves or Sony would take Spidey over after Sony's spider-man franchise run they could naturally just sell the rights again after the rights have reverted, no need to make the licence lease transferable

a similar case to what I described seems to be going on with the Spider-man game rights, the rights for original non-movie tie-in story Spider-man games (damn that's a mouthful) have reverted back to Marvel/Disney but they don't have their own game studio so they'll likely give it to a studio they find adequate for the job

 

[Erzengel]

That film was actually OotP, and it didn't actually lose money. Made quite a lot of money actually. But some creative and classic Hollywood accounting made it look like it lost money. The tacked on production cost for other films that lost money. They did this in an attempt to not pay bonuses on OotP big box office.

Gotcha thanks.

But the other part about not really knowing how much a Studio makes unless it's leak is still true.

And to be honest, if TASM 2 was over 90% on RT, I'd be happy cause it would mean that the consensus is that it's a good movie. I'm not rooting for Spider-Man to fail quite the opposite. But I don't want a mediocre one to do well ala (Pirates or Transformers).

And I'm not a Sony hater either. Disney isn't without it's share of stinkers and poor judgment. You won't really find too much online but for Pixar to be doing a Cars 3 after Cars 1 and 2 being the worst reviewed movies out of all of them really shows it as a cash grab. Although, it's easy to find information on how profitable the Cars merchandising is so adding 2 + 2 = 4 is not a far stretch on why they are making Cars 3.

Same thing with Sony. They aren't going to let go of it's cash cow until there's no more milk. However, if the Studios are playing chicken for May 2016, Cap and Batman vs. Superman and X-Men: Apocalypse, it doesn't look good for TASM 3 to not move it's date considering it struggled against a comedy in it's 2nd week.

 

[thomass]

Is it fair to say that they have made enough money to make another film with a smaller but still decently sized budget?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Gotcha thanks.

But the other part about not really knowing how much a Studio makes unless it's leak is still true.

And to be honest, if TASM 2 was over 90% on RT, I'd be happy cause it would mean that the consensus is that it's a good movie. I'm not rooting for Spider-Man to fail quite the opposite. But I don't want a mediocre one to do well ala (Pirates or Transformers).

And I'm not a Sony hater either. Disney isn't without it's share of stinkers and poor judgment. You won't really find too much online but for Pixar to be doing a Cars 3 after Cars 1 and 2 being the worst reviewed movies out of all of them really shows it as a cash grab. Although, it's easy to find information on how profitable the Cars merchandising is so adding 2 + 2 = 4 is not a far stretch on why they are making Cars 3.

Same thing with Sony. They aren't going to let go of it's cash cow until there's no more milk. However, if the Studios are playing chicken for May 2016, Cap and Batman vs. Superman and X-Men: Apocalypse, it doesn't look good for TASM 3 to not move it's date considering it struggled against a comedy in it's 2nd week.

Yeah, we will never get their books. Heck, New Line didn't even want Peter Jackson looking at theirs, considering all the money they hid from him.

Is it fair to say that they have made enough money to make another film with a smaller but still decently sized budget?

They are going to make another film. I doubt the budget can really go down, unless they make massive changes like moving filming to other, cheaper cities and locking in special effects work.

 

[Raiden]

Is it fair to say that they have made enough money to make another film with a smaller but still decently sized budget?

If their plan for TASM3 is to have Spider-Man facing the Sinister Six, then I don't see how they can make the budget smaller. It is far more likely that Sony will spend even more for the last movie of the trilogy.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

The only thing working for TASM series right now is global expansion.

Only China, really. Take the Chinese market out of the numbers, and overseas ASM2 dropped too. It was the increase in the Chinese market pretty much alone that is going to put it above ASM internationally.

Even accounting for China, ASM2 is going to make less than ASM worldwide because the overseas expansion isn't keeping pace with the domestic decline. IE. It is dropping faster in the US than it is increasing internationally.

 

[Erzengel]

If it wasn't for the obvious parallels to Kill Bill. Have the Sinister Six form, defeat and bury Spider-Man. Spider-Man rises (heh) takes out 2 members in one movie and the rest in the 4th movie.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The budget is going to increase like most sequels budgets do. It's naive to believe anything else.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Only China, really. Take the Chinese market out of the numbers, and overseas ASM2 dropped too. It was the increase in the Chinese market pretty much alone that is going to put it above ASM internationally.

Even accounting for China, ASM2 is going to make less than ASM worldwide because the overseas expansion isn't keeping pace with the domestic decline. IE. It is dropping faster in the US than it is increasing internationally.

I did not realize that. Good too know. Also doesn't help how little a return they get from China either.

While this film will make somewhere around $40m less in box office compared to TASM, it is actually going to make much less profit. The dramatic drop domestically just won't do it. I honestly can't see how this film won't finish with a loss, and not a small one.

The budget is going to increase like most sequels budgets do. It's naive to believe anything else.

It is going to increase, and the film is going to probably make less money. It is mind blowing. Or it would be if it wasn't Hollywood.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I did not realize that. Good too know. Also doesn't help how little a return they get from China either.

While this film will make somewhere around $40m less in box office compared to TASM, it is actually going to make much less profit. The dramatic drop domestically just won't do it. I honestly can't see how this film won't finish with a loss, and not a small one.


It is going to increase, and the film is going to probably make less money. It is mind blowing. Or it would be if it wasn't Hollywood.

Oh Hollywood. lol

Maybe if we throw more money at the problem! How about throwing money and a talented writer or two at the script?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Oh Hollywood. lol

Maybe if we throw more money at the problem! How about throwing money and a talented writer or two at the script?

They could do with a better director as well.

 

[TheWallCrawler]

Webb is passionate enough about the material and has the right idea for the most part, but it's very clear that he is not nearly experienced enough to do something on the scale of a Spider-man movie properly

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

It's inexperience on Webb's part and interference on Sony's part.

Never a good film-making cocktail.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

They could do with a better director as well.

See sometimes I think not good or disappointing films are mostly a scripting issue. Indeed TASM 2 had a horrendous script I'm sure but I agree with you Butch, this franchise needs another director. I get that Sony and the script are bigger issues but I flat out do not think that Marc Webb is right for this franchise. He just doesn't have the talent needed to push this franchise to new and interesting heights. He is a quirky rom com director and that's awesome for him but stayaway from my Superhero movies please.

I hate talking about Marc Webb because he as a director just brings out the mean in me and I want to be a constructive critic. It was really hard for me to not write "Marc Webb kinda sucks as a director" as a response to your post.

 

[spider-neil]

See sometimes I think not good or disappointing films are mostly a scripting issue. Indeed TASM 2 had a horrendous script I'm sure but I agree with you Butch, this franchise needs another director. I get that Sony and the script are bigger issues but I flat out do not think that Marc Webb is right for this franchise. He just doesn't have the talent needed to push this franchise to new and interesting heights. He is a quirky rom com director and that's awesome for him but stayaway from my Superhero movies please.

I hate talking about Marc Webb because he as a director just brings out the mean in me and I want to be a constructive critic. It was really hard for me to not write "Marc Webb kinda sucks as a director" as a response to your post.

Webb was brought on for the heart and soul of the movie, but Gwen is now gone now so there is a strong argument to be made to turn away from the romantic path the movie is on and walk down darker and more interesting paths that don't involve a love interests. If that happens then why do you need Webb?

 

[Erzengel]

Webb's direction in regards to Peter and Gwen was pretty good. I also liked 500 Days of Summer direction. However, some directors who transition from one genre to another (see Tim Story) seem to be out of their element or maybe they are used to do the story and there's too much Studio interference for the action scenes.

 

[Spiderine]

I thought that was a big reason why they hired Webb was for the Peter/Gwen story. Knowing full well it would all lead to her death and that would draw a bigger audience. At least thats what Sony was thinking. Everything else is so subpar and unoriginal.