The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[GuestStar2004]

Aloha,
Most of the Spidey movies were in the theaters for at least 4 months. ASM2 has been out for less than 30 days(May 2,2014).It past the half billion mark in it;s first 2-3 weeks.There was a time when fan boys opinion of comic book movies was given weight. It's a testimony to the past success of the Spidey franchise that 700mil is considered a flop in anyones eyes.
Spidey rules

There is so much doom and gloom on here that your optimism is refreshing

 

[Joeyjojo72]

What does optimism have to do with it? The box office numbers are more or less a done deal.

If you're optimistic about ASM3 or S6, by all means make a case.

 

[chaseter]

$700 million WW on a $400 million budget is great you guys! Gooooooo Spidey!

 

[GuestStar2004]

$700 million WW on a $400 million budget is great you guys! Gooooooo Spidey!

Hmm... Never seen you be optimistic before, like ever, its scary

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

They don't have as much to compete with but venom, kraven, blackcat beyond others have potential to be more then supporting characters if done right

Doesn't matter whether its a big universe or a small universe, sony have to take a few chances here other then one spider-man movie every 3 years, when DC have batman,super-man and whatever other new character they want to use, and marvel have iron man,capt,thor,ant man ect ect and fox are expanding their X-men unverse with new characters and solos

The point being their A1 box office draw is losing value with each mediocre film so the answer is to try and elevate these supporting players on the marquee?

I love the idea of a S6 film and think it could be brilliant with the right vision, but its about context. Anything connected to these underwhelming series of films will only suffer the same fate. The audience are tuning out with each derivative film. The rebooted series has failed to offer us anything particularly inspired or new and it's that creative crisis which has led to this financial one. The general reaction to this series is indifference and spitting out more films at this point will only create a bigger disconnect.

 

[TheVileOne]

Listen, I think ASM 2 is definitely going over $200 million, but it's struggling to do so. 7 years ago this would've been absurd for the franchise. Just saying.

Also keep in mind, Sony is not getting any merchandise money for this franchise. Per the licensing deal, it's ALL going to Disney.

 

[GuestStar2004]

Listen, I think ASM 2 is definitely going over $200 million, but it's struggling to do so. 7 years ago this would've been absurd for the franchise. Just saying.

Also keep in mind, Sony is not getting any merchandise money for this franchise. Per the licensing deal, it's ALL going to Disney.

Yeah but Sony and bankruptcy and spider-man and stuff

 

[hippie_hunter]

Talk about a flop......

It's not a flop, it's just a disappointment. You can't really label a 700m picture a flop.

Yeah it definitely isn't a flop, the same way that Superman Returns and the RoboCop reboot aren't flops. They're just very big box office disappointments. You want a flop look at Dredd 3D, Titan A.E., or Zyzzyx Road.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Yeah but Sony and bankruptcy and spider-man and stuff

Sony isn't going to go bankrupt.

 

[TheVileOne]

Yeah but Sony and bankruptcy and spider-man and stuff

No one's talking about bankruptcy.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Hmm... Never seen you be optimistic before, like ever, its scary

Pretty sure that is sarcasm, LOL!

 

[GuestStar2004]

Pretty sure that is sarcasm, LOL!

I did know that, I just wanted to counteract it

 

[Tymminator]

Sony is not bankrupt YET, but they have a lot of work to do to get it all right. One example, this article from a couple months ago gives them a 78% chance of going bankrupt in the next 2 years...

http://www.technobuffalo.com/2014/0...e-to-go-bankrupt-in-two-years-says-macroaxis/

That said, Forbes said something similar a while ago and Sony going bankrupt didn't happen.
(But that WAS around the time Sony sold the Spider-man merchandising rights back to Marvel in exchange for Marvel's cut in ticket sales plus other details)

A report of a billion dollar-plus loss again just a few months ago...

http://www.businessinsider.com/sony-warns-of-11-billion-loss-2014-2

Just saying, they ain't healthy.

 

[hippie_hunter]

They aren't healthy and a lot of stuff needs to be turned around, but much of the doom and gloom that surrounds Sony is just overblown IMO. For all the crap that surrounds Sony, it has a lot of strong stuff as well.

 

[X Knight]

if Sony goes bankrupt, they need to spinoff their Playstation games unit as a separate division.

 

[hippie_hunter]

if Sony goes bankrupt, they need to spinoff their Playstation games unit as a separate division.

The PlayStation division is its own division within Sony. It's called Sony Computer Entertainment.

 

[:eek:]

$700 million WW on a $400 million budget is great you guys! Gooooooo Spidey!

The thing is that the movie needs to do at least $900-950 million to just break even (if it's true that they spent $400-450 million in total on this movie). Because all of that money doesn't go to the studio. I think they earn something like 50-60% of the domestic gross. Around 40% from the international markets and only 20% from China

 

[hippie_hunter]

I don't think they need to make $900 million to break even, but they should have at least made the same amount as the first Amazing Spider-Man film to break even.

 

[XSpidercideX]

I've heard break even is anywhere from 660-700 million for the movie. There really is no way to tell without financial statement.

The highest budget estimate is $445 but there is an article that they got a $45 million tax break for filming in New York, so that would mean the about $400 million given the highest estimate. The lower estimate is something like $390, so after a tax break they would be in much better shape.

With the higher estimate they will almost make their money on box office, and then will make their profit on dvd sales and tv licensing, which will probably be about $75 million. Merchandising profits are much smaller than tv/dvd profit, so it's not too bad for them that Disney gets merchandising.

PS. There is also the fact that every major studio's P&A budget, which is $190 million of the above budget, consists of a lot of paying money to themselves. It could be that half or more of the P&A budget is not really money spent but transfered to and from partner companies that makes it's way back to Sony. So take this into consideration and you can add about $100 million more profit in Sony's bank.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I don't think they need to make $900 million to break even, but they should have at least made the same amount as the first Amazing Spider-Man film to break even.

$900m was Sony's basement from a lot of early reports. So my guess is that would have provided a nice profit for the studio and investors, while giving them faith in the potential Spidey "Expanded Universe".

All early indications were that the film was looking at around what the first film made to break even, so the mid $700m seems about right.

 

[hippie_hunter]

I've heard break even is anywhere from 660-700 million for the movie. There really is no way to tell without financial statement.

The highest budget estimate is $445 but there is an article that they got a $45 million tax break for filming in New York, so that would mean the about $400 million given the highest estimate. The lower estimate is something like $390, so after a tax break they would be in much better shape.

With the higher estimate they will almost make their money on box office, and then will make their profit on dvd sales and tv licensing, which will probably be about $75 million. Merchandising profits are much smaller than tv/dvd profit, so it's not too bad for them that Disney gets merchandising.

PS. There is also the fact that every major studio's P&A budget, which is $190 million of the above budget, consists of a lot of paying money to themselves. It could be that half or more of the P&A budget is not really money spent but transfered to and from partner companies that makes it's way back to Sony. So take this into consideration and you can add about $100 million more profit in Sony's bank.

There are a lot of flaws in your scenario. First of all, out of the $700 million it makes for the movie, Sony isn't going to get all that. They'll get about $110 - 115 million from the domestic market. They'll only get $25 million from the Chinese market, and the split in other foreign markets aren't as generous as the US/Canada. Second, you use home video sales as if the market is as vibrant as ever. Sales of the first Amazing Spider-Man weren't impressive to begin with and the market is in a severe decline due to the transition to digital with services such as Netflix and Amazon on Demand. And with the negative reception this film has been getting, do you really think that sales of the sequel will be on par with the second? Third, typically a blockbuster film should be making its money back while still in the box office, not wait for home video to come and save it. This isn't like Kick-Ass or Dredd where a smaller budget film gets saved from total financial embarrassment due to great home video sales. And finally, "it's not too bad that Disney gets the film's merchandising?" Are you high? Because that's just absurd. Merchandising really, really helps a film out a lot to where a lot of times, it is just as important as the film itself. Just ask Disney as to why they decided to make Cars 2 despite the fact that Cars was one of Pixar's lowest grossing and rated films?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

There are a lot of flaws in your scenario. First of all, out of the $700 million it makes for the movie, Sony isn't going to get all that. They'll get about $110 - 115 million from the domestic market. They'll only get $25 million from the Chinese market, and the split in other foreign markets aren't as generous as the US/Canada. Second, you use home video sales as if the market is as vibrant as ever. Sales of the first Amazing Spider-Man weren't impressive to begin with and the market is in a severe decline due to the transition to digital with services such as Netflix and Amazon on Demand. And with the negative reception this film has been getting, do you really think that sales of the sequel will be on par with the second? Third, typically a blockbuster film should be making its money back while still in the box office, not wait for home video to come and save it. This isn't like Kick-Ass or Dredd where a smaller budget film gets saved from total financial embarrassment due to great home video sales. And finally, "it's not too bad that Disney gets the film's merchandising?" Are you high? Because that's just absurd. Merchandising really, really helps a film out a lot to where a lot of times, it is just as important as the film itself. Just ask Disney as to why they decided to make Cars 2 despite the fact that Cars was one of Pixar's lowest grossing and rated films?

Exactly hippie_hunter, and I have been saying this for awhile. There is a cumulative effect here where you cannot expect the backside to cover here. The dramatic drop in the domestic gross (by far the highest split), China covering for a overall drop in other territories (China returns are by far the lowest), the drop in the home media market, no merch rights. Is there any chance that TASM2 sells better on home media then TASM, which only sold ok, with a worse reception and worse home media market?

The only ones who have any chance of real profit here is Disney, and that is because of the merchandising. The only thing they had to pain for was the manufacturing. Sony basically paid for their advertisement.

 

[sf2]

Yes. But WB can't rely on just Batman for solo films. One of the benefits with doing JL is exposure for other characters besides Bats who might be able to do financially successful solo films. WW maybe? Or a character out of left field who might become WB's IM and be a huge financially profitable franchise.

problem is WB doesn't trust / no confident in the other DC characters. and they are more interested in great number for their 1st solo film. i don't think they will be happy if flash / WW solo film did only as good as CA numbers. (below $350M WW)

 

[spider-neil]

Exactly hippie_hunter, and I have been saying this for awhile. There is a cumulative effect here where you cannot expect the backside to cover here. The dramatic drop in the domestic gross (by far the highest split), China covering for a overall drop in other territories (China returns are by far the lowest), the drop in the home media market, no merch rights. Is there any chance that TASM2 sells better on home media then TASM, which only sold ok, with a worse reception and worse home media market?

The only ones who have any chance of real profit here is Disney, and that is because of the merchandising. The only thing they had to pain for was the manufacturing. Sony basically paid for their advertisement.

Why is there a drop in home media? The thing hasn't even been released yet. You could argue all the people that skipped the movie will be far more willing to take chance on the movie on DVD/Blu ray
There are also a lot of movies for May and ASM2 was an easy skip.
With a drop in domestic you 'may' see a raise in DVD/Blu ray sales/rental.

 

[spider-neil]

WB don't have to relie on Batman or indeed superheroes full stop.