The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[Erzengel]

While it's a down year, you still have movies making more than it's predecessors except for TASM 2.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Is it a down year at the box office domestically or something? None of these films are doing well in North America. Even Xmen seem to struggle here. There have been big drop offs in the second weekend.

I'd say it is the movies, and not the box office. None of them have caught on. I think that will change this week with HTTYD 2.

 

[spider-neil]

No you haven't. But in your defence it's not a first.

This thread is about TASM2 BO not wether or not Pacific Rim is a financial success or a freakin' disaster. This way of bringing unrelated films in the mix to prop up TASM2's numbers is really getting tiresome.

That's your quote. Therefore it's okay to bring up successes or past successes and say the (ASM2) movie has underperformed but if someone brings up an example of a movie that is proceeding with a sequel despite disappointing numbers then that is tiresome. Okay whatever.

I also enjoyed your 'not your first' dig as if people on this thread were offering anything more than speculation with regards to profits or losses.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

No one is doubting there is going to be a TASM3 is there? We know it is coming. They have to make. That is the catch-22 of the rights game.

 

[GuestStar2004]

I love how honesty is "doom and gloom".

honesty can come in many forms, opinion is one

 

[Erzengel]

Is there an argument that TASM 3 shouldn't be green lit? Because even with it barely making 700 million, it's still Sony's biggest cash cow.

 

[Spider-knight]

if sony never interfered with marc webb they would've been breaking millions. hopefully they'll see the point

 

[DarthSkywalker]

honesty can come in many forms, opinion is one

Box office is math, so no real opinion. As long as you know how to read the numbers, it is pretty straightforward. The problem comes when people go into full fanboy mode, and decide math is suddenly up for interpretation.

 

[Erzengel]

if sony never interfered with marc webb they would've been breaking millions. hopefully they'll see the point

It took X-3 and Wolverine Origins for Fox to get it's head out of it's ass.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Is there an argument that TASM 3 shouldn't be green lit? Because even with it barely making 700 million, it's still Sony's biggest cash cow.

Nobody is arguing that it shouldn't be made. Only the spinoffs.

The issue with TASM3 is the approach, the budget, and who should be involved with the project from the executives to the crew to the cast.

I think most people here agree Garfield should be back, but after that there is a lot of room for debate.

 

[spider-neil]

Box office is basically math,

Yes but people don't have all the data.

Product placement, for exmaple, is a big factor and no one is privy to how much Sony were given for ASM2. The Evian advert is a good example that Sony would have received money.

With Cap 2, how much money did Marvel have to hand over to Disney for marketing the movie? The marketing wasn't done for free. I have a friend who works for Rocksteady and he told me Rocksteady had to give up a share of profits to WB for marketing the game, which surprised me as it's technically WB's game.

We do not have all the data, we're just taking educated guesses.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Is there an argument that TASM 3 shouldn't be green lit? Because even with it barely making 700 million, it's still Sony's biggest cash cow.

The only one would be that Sony could theoretically make more money and risk none by selling the rights back to Marvel.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yes but people don't have all the data.

Product placement, for exmaple, is a big factor and no one is privy to how much Sony were given for ASM2. The Evian advert is a good example that Sony would have received money.

With Cap 2, how much money did Marvel have to hand over to Disney for marketing the movie? The marketing wasn't done for free. I have a friend who works for Rocksteady and he told me Rocksteady had to give up a share of profits to WB for marketing the game, which surprised me as it's technically WB's game.

We do not have all the data, we're just taking educated guesses.

Marvel and Disney are not two different entities. Marvel is owned by Disney. Disney distributes the films for free and handles all the marketing through Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures. They do the same with Pixar. Now I do not know how much of the profits from the films and merch go directly back into Marvel Studios, but it really doesn't matter.

On the corporate sponsorship front, we don't know how much. But I am doubting it touched TDKR and MOS numbers, as that would have been front page new if it did. I also factored in $100m in such dollars into my original post on this.

We also have plenty of info on box office and Sony's layout to make a very well educated guess.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

The exact number of the promotion budget doesn't matter too much. This is bigger than TASM2 itself. The problem is that the box office, especially in North America, is dropping like a stone. And sometime soon there is going to be a point where the franchise is no longer profitable. Moving the fiscal cliff back a few feet isn't going to matter much when you are still marching towards it. This isn't that big of an issue when the series is making 400-500 million domestic like the Raimi films, but when struggling to make 200 million it is a major issue.

Now you might point out that DoFP isn't doing much better, which is true. But the X-Men franchise is growing at the box office and great reviews indicate it will continue to do so. TASM has the double whammy of declining box office and bad reviews. That's why Fox is much happier than Sony right now even though the films are doing about the same.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The exact number of the promotion budget doesn't matter too much. This is bigger than TASM2 itself. The problem is that the box office, especially in North America, is dropping like a stone. And sometime soon there is going to be a point where the franchise is no longer profitable. Moving the fiscal cliff back a few feet isn't going to matter much when you are still marching towards it. This isn't that big of an issue when the series is making 400-500 million domestic like the Raimi films, but when struggling to make 200 million it is a major issue.

Now you might point out that DoFP isn't doing much better, which is true. But the X-Men franchise is growing at the box office and great reviews indicate it will continue to do so. TASM has the double whammy of declining box office and bad reviews. That's why Fox is much happier than Sony right now even though the films are doing about the same.

Well put. The biggest problem is the direction the franchise is clearly going.

 

[SpideyK]

Looking at the numbers shows just how impressive TWS is. TWS cost $85m less then TASM2, and most likely much less to promote. It has done $255m domestically. It did this in April, during the middle of the school year. More importantly it doubled the box office of TFA, showing real growth. It also doesn't hurt that it was very well received, leading to future growth with Cap 3.

Well, yes. If one were to compare the TWS gross to the TFA gross (which was kinda bad), it becomes obvious that TWS has not only been a crazy increase, but also a biiiiiiiiiiiiig investment.

Buuuut, I refuse to call ASM2 a financial f**k up. It's not even remotely great, but it's not terrible.

To me, Superman Returns is a financial f**k up.

SpideyK I like you, and I think you are easily the best regular on this board. I understand your frustration as you are clearly a fan. But TASM2 was a financial mess up. It was a film built to make $900m+, and it is struggling to $700m, with a huge domestic drop.

Really? Why thank you.

Anyway, YES. I KNOW. The box office is dissapointing as fuuuuuuuuuuu. I expected the movie to make ~$850m, but that's all. Dissapointing.

I still refuse to call it a f**k up.

 

[spider-neil]

Well put. The biggest problem is the direction the franchise is clearly going.

I think a lot of stuff thrown around is pie in the sky unless balance sheets are produced but I readily concede the above point and don't see Sony pulling out of this spiral of dismishing returns and I don't see that changing without something big happening like an A list director, joining the Avengers or Sinester Six/Venom blowing people away. Also I'm mainly talking North America because 500m overseas is a decent return.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Well, yes. If one were to compare the TWS gross to the TFA gross (which was kinda bad), it becomes obvious that TWS has not only been a crazy increase, but also a biiiiiiiiiiiiig investment.

Buuuut, I refuse to call ASM2 a financial f**k up. It's not even remotely great, but it's not terrible.

To me, Superman Returns is a financial f**k up.

The problem for TASM2 is the price and the fact that the franchise continues to fall, hard. That is what makes it a problem. TFA was underwhelming in its box office, but it did its job. It brought Cap to the MCU, while starting a franchise. Marvel will willing to lose money on it, to make it up in the future. That proved correct.

Really? Why thank you.

Yeah, you are level headed, and respectful of all opinions, whether you agree or not. The only problem is that I sometimes can't recognize you because of how often you change your AV.

Anyway, YES. I KNOW. The box office is dissapointing as fuuuuuuuuuuu. I expected the movie to make ~$850m, but that's all. Dissapointing.

I still refuse to call it a f**k up.

Matching TASM would have been disappointing. This did well under that, while losing a lot of domestic ground.

 

[Erzengel]

Now you might point out that DoFP isn't doing much better, which is true. But the X-Men franchise is growing at the box office and great reviews indicate it will continue to do so. TASM has the double whammy of declining box office and bad reviews. That's why Fox is much happier than Sony right now even though the films are doing about the same.

The X-Men franchise was however never in the same league as Spider-Man.

X-Men cost $75 million, grossed $296 WW with $157 domestic.
X-2 cost $110 million, grossed $407 WW with $215 domestic.
X-3 cost $210 million, grossed $459 WW with $234 domestic.
X-Men Origins: Wolverine cost $150, grossed $373 WW with $180 domestic.
X-Men: First Class cost $160, grossed $343 WW with $146 domestic.
The Wolverine cost $120, grossed $414 WW with $132 domestic.
X-Men: Days of Future Past cost $200 million, grossing $609 WW with $189 domestic.

The fact however that the latest movie is the highest grossing X-Men film after 7 films is reassuring.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Well, yes. If one were to compare the TWS gross to the TFA gross (which was kinda bad), it becomes obvious that TWS has not only been a crazy increase, but also a biiiiiiiiiiiiig investment.

Buuuut, I refuse to call ASM2 a financial f**k up. It's not even remotely great, but it's not terrible.

To me, Superman Returns is a financial f**k up.

Even Superman Return wasn't. It was enough for WB to take notice and change the future direction of the franchise, but it wasn't a flop by itself.

A true financial disaster is something like John Carter.

 

[JKKS085]

That's your quote. Therefore it's okay to bring up successes or past successes and say the (ASM2) movie has underperformed but if someone brings up an example of a movie that is proceeding with a sequel despite disappointing numbers then that is tiresome. Okay whatever.

I also enjoyed your 'not your first' dig as if people on this thread were offering anything more than speculation with regards to profits or losses.

No it's okay to bring movies that are related in some ways to the matter at hand. Pacific Rim isn't in any way. It's not a sequel, it's not part of a franchise, it's not an adaptation and it's not a comic book movie. And as off today all sequel talks are nothing but empty talks.

As for the rest, forgive me but I'll favor insightful speculations over blinded fanboyism any day.

 

[SpideyK]

The problem for TASM2 is the price and the fact that the franchise continues to fall, hard. That is what makes it a problem. TFA was underwhelming in its box office, but it did its job. It brought Cap to the MCU, while starting a franchise. Marvel will willing to lose money on it, to make it up in the future. That proved correct.

True, true.

And yes, the ASM franchise is obviously going downhill, financially - I know.

Yeah, you are level headed, and respectful of all opinions, whether you agree or not. The only problem is that I sometimes can't recognize you because of how often you change your AV.

Aaawww.

Yeah, I like to change avvys. I'm like that.

Matching TASM would have been disappointing. This did well under that, while losing a lot of domestic ground.

Yes, dissapointing as fu...

I think we'll have to agree to disagree on the whole finacial f**k up part.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

The X-Men franchise was however never in the same league as Spider-Man.

X-Men cost $75 million, grossed $296 WW with $157 domestic.
X-2 cost $110 million, grossed $407 WW with $215 domestic.
X-3 cost $210 million, grossed $459 WW with $234 domestic.
X-Men Origins: Wolverine cost $150, grossed $373 WW with $180 domestic.
X-Men: First Class cost $160, grossed $343 WW with $146 domestic.
The Wolverine cost $120, grossed $414 WW with $132 domestic.
X-Men: Days of Future Past cost $200 million, grossing $609 WW with $189 domestic.

The fact however that the latest movie is the highest grossing X-Men film after 7 films is reassuring.

Pretty much. X-Men is going up and Spider-Man is coming down and this May the two met in the middle. If the pattern continues we will see Apocalypse clearly do better than TASM3 in two years.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Even Superman Return wasn't. It was enough for WB to take notice and change the future direction of the franchise, but it wasn't a flop by itself.

A true financial disaster is something like John Carter.

SR's production budget was also inflated by all the pasted failed projects.

 

[SpideyK]

Even Superman Return wasn't. It was enough for WB to take notice and change the future direction of the franchise, but it wasn't a flop by itself.

Okay...

Well, I actually liked Superman Returns more than Man of Steel, so that "future direction" doesn't really say much, in my case.

A true financial disaster is something like John Carter.

Holy ****. Never thought about looking up John Carter.

Wow, that's actually terrible. What's that, like a... $30m profit?