The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Avenging Spidey]

Early tracking is in low $80Ms, still early but this isn't very good so far.

The BoxOffice forums is completely unreliable when it comes to The Amazing Spider-Man franchise. The moderator there is completely bonkers and they have a history of bias against this franchise that it's actually disgusting. I had an account there once but I gave up on posting because the trolling is literally endorsed by their mods, not prevented.

HSX does provide good predictions, but people need to know how to read them: it's on low eighties now, and that means that it'll go up from there. Besides, HSX predicted $140m for The Avengers OW one month away of the release date, they are no better than a guesstimate.


My updated predictions for The Amazing Spider-Man 2:

$159m OW
$410m DOM
$700m OS
$1.1B WW

 

[Picard Sisko]

If TASM1 can pull a $700 million worldwide in total, I see no reason as to why TASM2 can't do better. It should earn at least $750-900 million.

 

[Avenging Spidey]

Huh.

Should I be worried? Haha. Had my money on TASM2 opening with a $100M opening weekend

As I've said, it's too soon for RS to release a proper guesstimate for this. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is facing a lot of bias from some thiwpheads, but I'm sure that the general audience and the fanboys will come for what it looks like the best Spider-Man film yet, quite possibly one of the best superhero films ever.

It's Spider-Man, and it looks brilliant. I wouldn't be worried at all, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is going to soar, and it will be epic. t:

 

[Avenging Spidey]

The forum is the Hollywood Stock Exchange, the poster obviously has ties within the industry and the numbers are based on audience interest at the moment within demographics such as kids, teens, women and men. And... yes... it is domestic tracking.

Which means nothing. The Avengers was tracking at $120m once there, while TDKR was close to $200m. Look how that worked it out.

It's Spider-Man, and HSX RS tracking will get pwned. Like it happens every other month. It's just silly talk to believe that TASM2 will gross any less than $100m OW at this point.

 

[Picard Sisko]

All I care about is that TASM2 earns enough for Sony to do well and continue making more Spider-Man movies.

 

[TheIrishAvenger]

It's true that these numbers are very early and premature, especially since the US marketing is only starting to go into high gear, but they're still an early indicator; and by these figures, it looks like the ASM 2 could end up doing around $120M+ O/W. That's pretty good, so maybe my "not very good" comment was a bit harsh.

You also really can't compare TDKR's numbers, they could have gone completely differently if the theater shooting didn't happen. And for Avengers, tracking for that was huge, a huge phenomenon was only budding with early figures and as it's marketing continued to escalate, it created a buzz -- thanks to great reviews -- that is very rare now and so it was very hard to track.

 

[Picard Sisko]

I think it's just too early to make any real calls. Everything is speculation at this point. Unless someone has some psychic powers. hehe.

 

[JOE]

The only thing that matters is that the movie is well received. If the positive reviews roll in, the money will follow.

 

[SikeMullivan]

The forum is the Hollywood Stock Exchange, the poster obviously has ties within the industry and the numbers are based on audience interest at the moment within demographics such as kids, teens, women and men. And... yes... it is domestic tracking.

That makes no sense. I can't even buy my tickets yet....

 

[TheIrishAvenger]

Here are the predictions that I made in December that I'm making myself stick to:

O/W: $145 million
​

Domestic: $325 million (270-300 seems more likely with further thought)
W/W: $800-900 million

​

 

[TheIrishAvenger]

That makes no sense. I can't even buy my tickets yet....

How does that not make sense? This is common with studios, they inspect tracking for films to see who they need to market more too, who they already have interested etc.

 

[Picard Sisko]

Here are the predictions that I made in December that I'm making myself stick to:

O/W: $145 million
​

Domestic: $325 million (270-300 seems more likely with further thought)
W/W: $800-900 million

​

Agreed.

 

[SikeMullivan]

I'm saying that this malarkey about this being an issue or worrisome doesn't make sense.

The tracking is low because there are massive amounts of people who don't even have access to buying tickets yet.

 

[Picard Sisko]

The only thing that matters is that the movie is well received. If the positive reviews roll in, the money will follow.

If it is well-received then they will have people coming back to see the film multiple times (which is the only way a film would make close to a billion dollars).

 

[Avenging Spidey]

Just to give you all some perspective:

Who said that? Notfabio (a poster well-known on HSX, which is like Wall St except betting on movie box office) reported that presales at his usual multiplex, which has repeatedly proven to be a good representative for general audiences nationwide, for Avengers was "ok but not spectacular, definitely better than the non-Iron Man films."

Which isn't really that surprising, since there's less of a crazy fanbase (at least compared to Harry Potter and Twilight ) and more of a GA appeal. That points to more last-minute walk-ups than waiting months for the premiere.

Still, the audience to sustain a Harry Potter-like opening weekend is likely not there. In fact, World of KJ is even considering the possibility that Avengers won't even beat The Hunger Games' opening weekend. Not to knock Avengers of course, but Hunger Games was a BEAST.

There's still a few weeks and things might very well blow up between now and then.

Posted on 04-12-2012, keep in mind that The Avengers was released in the United States on May, 4, 2012.

It's actually hillarious to read the predictions for The Avengers and the whole box office thread for that film here on SHH from almost one month before the film's release date, it truly puts some things in perspective, stuff people that are anticipating this film should be aware of.

A lot of posts from that time can easily be translated to today's situation of The Amazing Spider-Man 2 at the box office:

You gotta figure in all the kids who will wanna go see this, dragging their parents along, all those TV spots with Hulk rampaging about etc. People who just like big action films, the trailers give it that blockbuster scope that dwarf's the look of any superhero film before. Whedon's fanbase which might not be massive but is passionate.

If it has good buzz, and it seems like it does so far, I think it's comfortable for around 800-900 mill.

How this film opens is going to be more dependent on WOM than most - it comes out in much of the world over a week before it opens in the US. This hurt IM2 pretty substantially IMO because a lot of people got wind that it wasnt that great. Its good that early impressions seem to be positive as this is going to play a large part in determining if it falls around the higher or lower end of predictions.

Marvel’s The Avengers just came on early tracking this morning “incredibly strong” exactly as Hollywood thought it would, my industry sources are telling me. This is the first Marvel film to be marketed and distributed by Disney so this is great news for the studio. The numbers tell the story: it has 23% ‘First Choice’ and 62% ‘Definite Interest for all audiences – incredibly high among men, and solid among females. With so many well known characters coming together for the first time in this film, the movie’s opening on May 4th for the official summer season start in North America will be an event. As a result, not only will this type of action film normally skew young and older male, but the early tracking is looking strong as a three- and possibly four-quadrant movie, too. One expert provided me with a box office guesstimate that this assembly of Marvel superheroes should open during its 3-day non-holiday weekend to $100+M domestic. That would make the film Marvel’s biggest non-sequel opening, and its highest-grossing since Iron Man 2 ($128M opening weekend which ultimately made $312.4M domestic/$311.5M international for $623.9M worldwide). Right now Disney and theatre owners are adding screens every day for the release whose online pre-sales of tickets are already selling out. Midnight show business is expected to be phenomenal. Exactly how much the studio can gross for the first weekend depends on how many screenings each theater can pack into 72 hours by finding enough staff willing to work the extra hours and keep the pic running continuously.

Source: ‘Avengers’ Tracking Like Superhero: $125+M Opening Weekend With 4-Quadrant Appeal (DEADLINE HOLLYWOOD)

Replace "The Avengers" with "The Amazing Spider-Man 2", and it literally still applies to 2014's Spidey. I firmly believe that The Amazing Spider-Man 2 will be the biggest box office film of the year, with both critic and public acclaim. The buzz for this is as good to Captain America: The Winter Soldier, if not actually better, since Teekay has seen both films and actually thinks that The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is the better film, regardless if he thinks that Cap 2 is a 5 stars out of 5 film.

Between how brilliant this film looks and the legendary run that Dan Slott is doing in the comics, I don't think I could ever be a more spoiled Spider-Man fan. t:

 

[Avenging Spidey]

How does that not make sense? This is common with studios, they inspect tracking for films to see who they need to market more too, who they already have interested etc.

Yes, but it isn't reliable. Read the proof above, or just go back to the past and see it yourself, starting with the post #440:

http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?p=22917375

 

[Avenging Spidey]

It's true that these numbers are very early and premature, especially since the US marketing is only starting to go into high gear, but they're still an early indicator; and by these figures, it looks like the ASM 2 could end up doing around $120M+ O/W. That's pretty good, so maybe my "not very good" comment was a bit harsh.

You also really can't compare TDKR's numbers, they could have gone completely differently if the theater shooting didn't happen. And for Avengers, tracking for that was huge, a huge phenomenon was only budding with early figures and as it's marketing continued to escalate, it created a buzz -- thanks to great reviews -- that is very rare now and so it was very hard to track.

Notfabio thought that The Avengers tracking wasn't that special, less than 22 days for The Avengers release date. We still don't have official figures for The Amazing Spider-Man 2 tracking, like we had for The Avengers on April, 12th, 2012, reported by Deadline. At the time, it was thought that The Avengers was tracking at $125m+, less than The Hunger Games which was the surprise hit of the year (the place where I hope/expect it will be occupied by The Winter Soldier this year).

When the official tracking numbers for TASM2 gets released 10 days from now, it could very well say it's tracking at $90m and end up with $150m, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 will obviously be a huge 4 quadrants film, and I actually believe that $150m OW is the floor, not the ceiling, but we'll see how it'll pan out.

 

[zipzip]

Still to early to put that in perspective tracking still has a month to go.120 imo is a safe bet o/w the legs are what i'm interested in the reception to the film will let us know if 300 is possible.Thanks for the information.

 

[Spideyfan117]

We'll just have to wait and see. I expect the film to do well both critically and commercially.

 

[TheIrishAvenger]

AvengingSpidey, you've brought up some good points.

But I have to disagree with you, The Avengers' tracking numbers were way lower compared to the $207M opening it had, and that is rare. Most tracking usually ends up being $10-15M off one way or another. Avengers was a rare phenom (same with Dark Knight, IM3 etc.) that nobody expected and I don't think ASM2 will be like that (yes I know that statement is somewhat contradictory). It may or may not receive the start of the Summer bump due to Captain America 2 releasing, which will make loads of money seeing how it's the first 4-quad blockbuster of the year and first superhero movie.

 

[JOE]

Spider-Man has the perfect placement this year. People also forget that it made $750M with one of the most anticipated CBM of all time that came out only 2 weeks after its release. People give no credit where it's due.

 

[TheIrishAvenger]

ASM 1 was the lowest grossing film domestically, a lot of people forget that and it was incredibly frontloaded.

 

[LEVITIKUZ]

It was also the lowest grossing Spidey film and even had 3D & IMAX going for them.

 

[Avenging Spidey]

AvengingSpidey, you've brought up some good points.

But I have to disagree with you, The Avengers' tracking numbers were way lower compared to the $207M opening it had, and that is rare. Most tracking usually ends up being $10-15M off one way or another. Avengers was a rare phenom (same with Dark Knight, IM3 etc.) that nobody expected and I don't think ASM2 will be like that (yes I know that statement is somewhat contradictory). It may or may not receive the start of the Summer bump due to Captain America 2 releasing, which will make loads of money seeing how it's the first 4-quad blockbuster of the year and first superhero movie.

While I actually partially agree with you, I do believe that The Avengers phenom is possible to be replicated, and I actually believe it's been replicated since Spider-Man's first release date, on May 3rd, 2002. I think there's a science to it, and I actually believe that The Amazing Spider-Man 2 has all the ingredients to become not only the biggest superhero film of the year, but quite possibly break some records, becoming the first Spider-Man film to gross more than $1B.

I firmly believe that $400m DOM are possible here if the buzz keeps building, and those who have seen the film have been very vocal about how truly amazing the film is. I just feel that The Amazing Spider-Man 2 will join the pantheon of those rare huge box office monsters that are released in the beginning of May. We'll have to wait and see, but I still see Cap 2 as the appetitizer, and TASM2 as the main meal. I can't wait myself, and I'm sure the GA will go ape**** for this if it's as good as it looks so... yeah.

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is the The Avengers or the Iron Man 3 of 2014 IMHO, while Cap is this year's Hunger Games. Heavy, I know. But let's wait and see.

 

[JOE]

Lowest grossing domestic film, and the fact that it was a reboot or had TDKR come out 2 weeks after it's release had nothing to do with it?