The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[SM71]

SikeMull where have you been man?

Agreed with the OW

 

[spider-neil]

If Sony do indeed open with 4,000 theatres then it will open big but only positive WOM will give it legs.

 

[miltonh]

105M max but right now under-100 is more likely, I think. Also OS won't be as big as people were expecting (600+ or something like that). Right now I'm thinking about 770-790M WW and that would be quite poor - Sony spent 430 or so on this project but still would finish under Spidey from 2002.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

It's actually decreasing for now in several small markets like Spain, Italy, and I don't remember which. South Korea is decreasing, UK is bigger, Russia should be bigger, kind of all over the place.

It seems like the movie is better than TASM and yet...... Superhero fatigue because of Cap, I don't see any other explanation. GA reaction thus far seems pretty enthusiastic.

 

[GuestStar2004]

Marvels MCU have stole the crown for comic boom movies these days and they release 2 a year, while WB is starting to get their expanding universe started since the dark knight hit the billion mark

Raimis films didn't have this competition in the super hero market, at that time Sony had basically X-men and the other fox projects daredevil, fantastic 4 which were received pretty meh by audiences

 

[Tim_Riggins]

True

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

It's actually decreasing for now in several small markets like Spain, Italy, and I don't remember which. South Korea is decreasing, UK is bigger, Russia should be bigger, kind of all over the place.

It seems like the movie is better than TASM and yet...... Superhero fatigue because of Cap, I don't see any other explanation. GA reaction thus far seems pretty enthusiastic.

The luke warm response to the first film hurt the second.

Like The Hobbit sequel.

 

[LizardMan07]

Will the success of this in the box office affect the quality of the next movie?

 

[GuestStar2004]

Will the success of this in the box office affect the quality of the next movie?

if the film makes 750 again then sony will probably be disappointed but at the same time... its wouldn't have gone down since TASM so thats something it means there is still a large audience and its still a large money maker, its just a matter of maybe changing how they market the movie or maybe doing something abit more tighter with TASM3, but if anything they will always try and make it bigger and better

 

[Tim_Riggins]

The luke warm response to the first film hurt the second.

Like The Hobbit sequel.

Yeah, sure, but still, it just strikes me as unfair although that's just the way it works. Movie will make bank, no doubt about it, but I really think Cap America being released so close to TASM2 could hurt it, there's like a month btw both, you can be sure that some of the GA won't bother to go see it.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Even if ASM2 only makes 725 m, Spider-man will be Sony's 2nd biggest ongoing franchise by far.

The third biggest is Hotel Transylvania with around 350 m WW.

Basically all Sony has is Bond and Spider-man.

 

[Lord]

They also have The Smurfs, but that one is far from being a sure hit with every new film. The problem with Spidey is if they stretch the franchise too thin in this quest to create a "super-franchise"

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The Smurfs sequel had a huge decrease from the first film, 347mil vs the original's 563mil. They are going to have to stop the bleeding if they want to continue that franchise.

 

[Lord]

Which is why i said it was far from being a sure hit, they're even hitting the reboot button already. Either way, i don't think superhero or franchise fatigue are the reason for the 2nd film underperforming, i think it's reboot fatigue, i still see many refusing to watch the new films, Spider-Man 3 wasn't completelly disliked by the general audiences, it wasn't a case of Batman & Robin where they general reaction was mostly negative with those that had watched it.

To get out of this situation what you need is an amazing film like The Dark Knight did that makes people forget there was even a previous Spider-Man. It will take a while.

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

Yeah, sure, but still, it just strikes me as unfair although that's just the way it works. Movie will make bank, no doubt about it, but I really think Cap America being released so close to TASM2 could hurt it, there's like a month btw both, you can be sure that some of the GA won't bother to go see it.

Superhero movies tend to be front loaded so I doubt Cap 2, going on its fifth weekend, will hurt it in terms of box office competition.

Godzilla, on the other hand, can cut its legs from out under it.

Which is why i said it was far from being a sure hit, they're even hitting the reboot button already. Either way, i don't think superhero or franchise fatigue are the reason for the 2nd film underperforming, i think it's reboot fatigue, i still see many refusing to watch the new films, Spider-Man 3 wasn't completelly disliked by the general audiences, it wasn't a case of Batman & Robin where they general reaction was mostly negative with those that had watched it.

The reason why I consider it franchise fatigue is because I can't see Spider-Man 4 doing that much better following The Avengers. Harry Potter was an anomaly that had weak competition in its genre. The Nolan trilogy did what The Dark Knight Returns did for the Batman comics. Just another good Spider-Man film will not break the bank.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

750 m is plenty of money if you keep the production/marketing budget around 325 m.

I think if Sony can tighten the budget, they would do just fine with 700-800 gross for future Spider-man movies.

Cracking a billion may not be in the cards for a long while though.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

I don't know why they announced they were hoping for a billion. I hate when studios do that because if the movie doesn't meet it's expectations, the detractors start using it to declare the movie a failure.

I'm not saying it won't hit a billion, but it doesn't seem too likely. Hopefully it gets $800-900 million.

 

[JOE]

Anything over 750 I'm happy with. Cap is at 600 right now, how much higher could that go?

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Cap is looking to make around $680-700 million.

 

[miltonh]

It's actually decreasing for now in several small markets like Spain, Italy, and I don't remember which. South Korea is decreasing, UK is bigger, Russia should be bigger, kind of all over the place.

It seems like the movie is better than TASM and yet...... Superhero fatigue because of Cap, I don't see any other explanation. GA reaction thus far seems pretty enthusiastic.

Looks like Russia OW could be 25% lower than TASM...

 

[miltonh]

And looks like it'll have problems to beat Frozen this weekend in Japan... Also Australia doesn't look good.

 

[LizardMan07]

where are you getting this info?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Japan isn't a market any blockbuster should be counting on.

I'm not predicting it but I wouldn't be surprised with a sub 100mil opening in North America now.

 

[JOE]

China is one we can count on. Releases in a week or so. Hoping for big numbers there!

 

[Tymminator]

They also have The Smurfs, but that one is far from being a sure hit with every new film. The problem with Spidey is if they stretch the franchise too thin in this quest to create a "super-franchise"

I myself don't think this stand alone Sinister Six movie is a great idea. Maybe it's just me, but I feel it's a misstep.